british airways plc – second response to the heathrow airport high speed rail access review

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  • 8/8/2019 British Airways plc Second response to the Heathrow Airport High Speed Rail Access Review

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    British Airways plc Second response to the Heathrow Airport

    High Speed Rail Access Review

    15th June 2010

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    BA Non-Confidential Page 2 of 19

    Table of Contents

    1. Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................3

    2. Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 4

    3.

    Demand forecast

    for

    Heathrow

    HSR

    service..........................................................53.1. The HS2 demand estimate...........................................................................................................5

    3.2. HS2 underestimates airport demand...................................................................................53.3. Gains from passengers transferring over non-UK hubs........................................8

    4. Wider benefits of a Heathrow Airport high-speed rail station....................94.1. Heathrow interchange potential..............................................................................................94.2. Terminal 5 potential..........................................................................................................................9

    5. Challenging HS2 journey analysis.....................................................................................115.1. Old Oak to Heathrow link quality overstated..............................................................115.2. Journeys to Euston.............................................................................................................................115.3. Journeys to Heathrow....................................................................................................................12

    5.4. Doubt over significance of small variations in journey time...........................135.5. Routing via Heathrow and Old Oak Common? ........................................................13

    6. Other arguments .........................................................................................................................156.1. High Speed Rail market share in Scotland.....................................................................15

    7. Conclusion........................................................................................................................................1

    8. Appendices......................................................................................................................................178.1. Appendix A UK regional air capacity.............................................................................178.2. Appendix B London to Edinburgh market-share curves ...............................18

    9.

    British Airways

    contacts.........................................................................................................19

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    1. Executive Summary

    The key evidence BA presents in this submission includes:

    HS2 estimate 2,000 Heathrow passengers per day would use an at-airport HSR station versus 1,400 at Old Oak Common.

    BA analysis indicates that by 2030 with rail to air codeshare arrangements a Heathrow station could handle 7,280 passengers per day (around 7% of all HSR passengers)

    With a 3rd runway demand at Heathrow station would exceed 9,700 passengers per day (around 10% of all HSR passengers).

    In 2009 there were 30,000 seats offered each day from UK regional airports to major EU and international hub airports. (Some 5.3mppa UK air passengers transfer at foreign hub airports).

    HS2 Ltd has not modelled the wider benefits a Heathrow HSR station could generate from and for the south of England.

    The HSR analysis of Old Oak Common to Heathrow journey times needs to include an average 7.5 minute platform waiting time.

    Additional percentage journey time for London-bound passengers routing via Heathrow is +1.9% from Scotland, +2.5% Newcastle, +5.0% Manchester and + 8.1% Birmingham.

    The additional percentage journey time for Heathrow passengers routing via Old Oak Common is +8.8% from Scotland, +12.6% Newcastle, +26% Manchester and +42% Birmingham.

    HSR Scottish market share may have been over-estimated by 30%.

    A Heathrow HSR station would boost the Scottish HSR business case by 30%.

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    2. Introduction

    This response will address issues raised following the meeting between Lord Mawhinney and UK airline representatives, including British Airways (BA), on the 12th May 2010. In particular this response will consider the business case for directly serving Heathrow Airport by high-speed rail (HSR).

    This BA response has been prepared on the basis of a 2-runway Heathrow, reflecting new Government policy, but also includes an assessment of a 3-runway Heathrow, which allows analysis of the forecast potential demand out to 2030.

    This response will comprise a review of the High Speed Two Ltd. (HS2) assessment of the demand, rationale and recommendation for serving Heathrow, and an assessment of the potential air passenger demand that high-speed rail could serve if optimally connected to Heathrow Airport.

    In addition, BA will submit evidence that demonstrates how an Old Oak Common interchange is unsuitable for serving the airport and further supports the business case for serving Heathrow Airport directly.

    Other supporting arguments will also be included.

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    3. Demand forecast for Heathrow HSR service

    This section will consider the current domestic air passenger market at Heathrow Airport, the UK regional passenger market using foreign hub airports, and the potential passenger demand that could be realised with Heathrow acting as a parkway/interchange station for the wider South of England and Wales markets.

    3.1. The HS2 demand estimate

    HS2 recommended a second London station at Old Oak Common (a Crossrail interchange) rather than Heathrow. Table 7.1 of the High Speed Rail Command Paper summarises the overall passenger demand for a second London station:

    Table 1. Forecast distribution of HS2 passengers per day

    Forecast users of a second London station by destination (per day)

    With Crossrail interchange station

    With Heathrow at-airport station

    Going to/from Heathrow 1,400 2,000

    Total HS2 passengers to London 144,800 128,600

    Source: DfT Table 7.1 High Speed Rail Command Paper

    HS2s demand modelling indicated that a Heathrow at-airport station would serve 2,000 passengers per day and that a Crossrail Interchange station at Old Oak Common would decrease the number of Heathrow passengers by just 600. This

    reduction was

    offset

    by

    lower

    construction

    costs

    than

    a route-via-airport

    solution,

    shorter journey times for non-airport point-to-point passengers and passenger dispersal benefits.

    3.2. HS2 underestimates airport demand

    BA believes this HS2 analysis significantly under-estimates the demand that an at-airport station could generate. Furthermore the analysis of the connection from Old Oak Common to Heathrow under-estimates the time to transfer to the airport and over-estimates the effects of the time penalty on routing high speed rail via Heathrow.

    The HS2 report states:

    Our model suggests a station at Heathrow would deliver the greatest demand for access to Heathrow, with around 2,000 passengers per day using HS2 to access the airport for international flights. This means that even a station at Heathrow which is deliberately modelled to maximise the attractiveness for airport passengers would represent less than 2% of the traffic on HS2.

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    This figure used by HS2 would appear to correlate strongly with a graph BA previously provided to HS2 that showed HSR picking up ~15,200 weekly domestic transfer passengers (~2,200 daily). See Chart 1 below:

    Chart 1: BA analysis provided to HS2

    Source: BA Analysis

    This BA scenario assumed: No BA domestic flying

    No airline codeshares (marketing flight numbers) on rail services

    That other carriers (OC) would continue domestic flying

    This BA analysis assumed 2009 levels of demand and a flight schedule constrained by limited Heathrow capacity.

    In a scenario where Heathrow is directly served by HSR these assumptions would be inaccurate as:

    The DfT forecast unconstrained UK passenger demand is to grow up to 2030, and these figures reflect 2009 levels of constrained demand.

    Airlines would seek to codeshare with an HSR operator actively marketing the rail connection and so facilitating cessation of all domestic flights.

    The impact of these assumptions on the HS2 estimate of 2,200 passengers per

    day using

    a

    Heathrow

    HSR

    station

    would

    be

    as

    follows:

    If all OC also stopped domestic flights BAs modelling analysis forecast a further 1,800 passengers per week (250 per day) would shift to HSR.

    The DfT forecasts total Heathrow demand will increase in 2030 versus 2005 by around 50% in a 2-runway scenario and would double in a 3-runway scenario. BA assumes this gives an indication of the potential domestic air transfer passenger market that HSR could serve by 2030.

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    BAs modelling analysis forecast codeshares between Heathrow airlines and an HSR operator would double domestic air transfer passenger numbers on HSR.

    Table 2 summarises these arguments:

    Table 2: Future demand forecast for Heathrow air-transfer users of HSR

    Original HS2 demand estimate

    Total passengers using a Heathrow HSR station

    2,171 per day 15,200 per week

    BA analysis adjustments

    Extra passengers without any OCdomestic flights

    + 257 per day + 1,800 per week

    Adding codeshare

    to

    HSR

    + 2,428

    per

    day

    + 17,000

    per

    week

    To give new Total HSR passengers of: 4,856 per day 34,000 per week

    BA estimate of demand for 2030 (2 runway Heathrow)

    Base 2030 2R Heathrow demand 3,642 per day 25,500 per week

    With codeshares and no domestic flights 7,284 per day 51,000 per week

    BA estimate of demand for 2030 (3 runway Heathrow)

    Base 2030 3R Heathrow demand 4,856 per day 34,000 per week

    With codeshares and no domestic flights 9,712 per day 68,000 per week

    Source: BA analysis, DfT, HS2

    The range of additional domestic air transfer passengers that could use an at-airport HSR station is ~7,200 to ~9,700 per day. If HS2s assumption was that 2,000 per day would represent 2% of traffic on HSR overall, then Heathrow domestic air transfer passengers, as accounted for above, could represent 7 to 10% of the total HS2 passenger numbers.

    3.2.1. Upside uncertainty in Domestic Air Passenger demand today

    In our first response we cited CAA evidence that the number of passengers at Heathrow using a domestic flight was 5.6 million in 2007. Of this around 40% are transfer passengers. The BA analysis is based upon this understanding of the data. However, in reality this percentage number will likely be higher due to the passengers who self-transfer, i.e. fly Edinburgh to Heathrow on BMI and then Heathrow to New York on Virgin Atlantic. These journeys are invisible to airline booking systems as being part of the same journey as the passenger is holding separate tickets with different companies.

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    3.3. Gains from passengers transferring over non-UK hubs

    HS2 analysis assumed that 4 million passengers per annum (mppa) from the UK transferred via non-UK hub airports. In the first submission BA provided an estimate of 5.3mppa transferring via foreign airports to and from the UK regions.5.3mppa equates to 14,500 passengers per day.

    Of this figure BA estimates that 2.3mppa fly via Heathrows principal competitor airports: Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris and Dubai. This is a total of 6,300 passengers per day. The remaining 3mppa transfer at all other worldwide airports (e.g. other European, major North American airports). This is a total of 8,200 passengers per day.

    Appendix A shows the current capacity of 30,000 seats each day from the UK to:

    Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris and Dubai; and

    Other European and International airports.

    BA analysis showed that the actual number of passengers transferring at non-UK airports is higher than HS2 assumed and that this demand for access to Heathrow is under-represented in the HS2 Ltd report.

    In addition this figure is likely to grow significantly in the period up to 2030 as air passenger demand is constrained by existing limited runway capacity at the UKs only hub airport.

    An at-airport HSR station would replace the domestic air capacity constraint at Heathrow and allow the airport to compete to serve these passengers with these other overseas hubs. This scenario would be likely to significantly grow the number of domestic transfers as a proportion of Heathrows passenger base.

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    4. Wider benefits of a Heathrow Airport high-speed rail station

    The HS2 work compared the benefits and disbenefits of serving Heathrow directly or via an interchange at Old Oak Common. Their conclusion was that Old Oak Common should be the interchange. However this analysis was unbalanced as it did not fully take into account the wider benefits that Heathrow station could deliver as an HSR outer London distributor station serving the wider South East and South of England.

    HS2 state:

    We have not sought to model and analyse the benefits of improved connectivity to Heathrow generally through, for instance, improved Western access. We focussed on the case for high speed and considered a Heathrow station on the basis of a wider high-speed network. Against this background the case looks weak with significant disbenefits to HS2 1.

    HS2s assessment of their recommended Birmingham interchange station demonstrates how that facility would serve a wider passenger catchment area

    than the city centre station. The same logic can and should be applied to Heathrow. BA believe that a re-appraisal of the wider benefits that a Heathrow HSR station could achieve, separate from aviation benefits and HSR disbenefits, should be undertaken.

    4.1. Heathrow interchange potential

    Neither Euston nor Old Oak Common is easily accessible for passengers from outside of Greater London. To reach those stations by public transport would require a journey in to another London terminus and then an underground transfer. Neither is readily accessible by coach or car.

    The benefit of Heathrows geographic location is that it faces out to the wider southeast and southwest being located along major motorway corridors such as the M3, M4, M40 and M25 and already has an existing concentration of bus, coach and rail services.

    Old Oak Common cannot and will not serve this extended southern England market as effectively, but this area is a key market for Heathrow and it is logical to assume that passengers from this area will want to make UK point-to-point rail

    journeys from this location via HSR rather than being forced in to central London.

    4.2. Terminal 5 potential

    As stated in the previous BA submission, an HSR station at Heathrow Terminal 5 would allow passenger interchange with the UKs only hub network airline at the UKs only hub airport.

    In addition it has the potential to provide close proximity interchange with the existing bus, coach (National Express network), London Underground and Heathrow Express service to Paddington. There is also access to airport car parking capacity and easy access to the M25 via a dedicated junction and from

    1 HS2 Main Report para 3.3.46

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    there to the A3, M3, M4, A4 and M40. This is a much easier road connection than those at most of the other possible on airport sites being evaluated.

    There is also interchange potential with planned rail expansion schemes: Crossrail (which can run through to the T5 rail station), Airtrack to London and the South from T5 rail platforms that are already built; and also the potential for a western link up to the Great West Mainline from T5. This is a greater range of rail service

    than that

    at

    most

    of

    the

    other

    possible

    on

    airport

    sites

    being

    evaluated.

    This range of services provide a T5 HSR station capability to distribute passengers in to north, central and south London via bus and coach, the Underground, Crossrail, Airtrack and Heathrow Express. Distribution of passengers to south and southwest England is possible through bus, coach and car, Crossrail, Airtrack and the western link to the Great West Mainline.

    This interchange potential can significantly add to the specific airport demand for an HSR station at Heathrow, yet HS2 chose not to consider it.

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    5. Challenging HS2 journey analysis

    Estimates of the journey times from Old Oak Common to Heathrow seem to understate the total journey time when including train interchange, and overstate the number of trains between the two locations.

    5.1. Old Oak to Heathrow link quality overstated

    Firstly the journey time from Old Oak Common to Heathrow Central Terminal Area (the CTA, Terminal 1 and Terminal 3) is estimated at 11 minutes. This does not take into account that over half of Heathrows passengers are flying to/from Terminals 4 and 5, both of which are a further 5 minute journey.

    Heathrow is served by 4 Heathrow Express trains per hour and will be served by a further 4 Crossrail trains per hour once it is operational. For the purposes of a high speed rail passenger coming to the airport from the north Crossrail will not provide an effective connection due to the number of stops the service will make.An average wait time of 7.5 minutes plus an overall journey time of around 30 minutes will not be an attractive option.

    This effectively means that Heathrow will only be connected to Old Oak Common by the BAA Heathrow Express trains. Again, there will be an average 7.5 minute waiting time for these trains, combined with an 11 minute journey time to the CTA or a 16 minute journey time to T4 and T5.

    No frequency increases are planned for the Heathrow Express service that could provide the essential effective connection to the airport from Old Oak Common.

    5.2. Journeys to Euston

    HS2 state that the additional journey time from Birmingham to Euston that serving

    via a Heathrow

    routing

    would

    incur

    is

    7

    minutes). However

    this

    7-minute

    figure

    includes a dwell-time of 3 minutes at Heathrow that is also common to trains that stop at Old Oak Common. So the actual time difference between trains travelling to Euston via Heathrow versus Euston via Old Oak Common is just 4 minutes.

    Table 3 below shows the percentage increase in journey times that London-bound passengers would incur if HSR were routed via Heathrow:

    Table 3: Restate HS2 estimated journey times with correct dwell time

    Time via Old

    Oak Common

    Time via

    Heathrow

    % Increase in

    overall journey Glasgow/Edinburgh to Euston

    3h 30m 3h 34m +1.9%

    Newcastle to Euston 2h 37m 2h 41m +2.5%

    Manchester to Euston 1h 20m 1h 24m +5.0%

    Birmingham to Euston 49 m 53m +8.1%

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    It appears HS2 have overstated the negative impact of routing via the airport in their analysis.

    5.3. Journeys to Heathrow

    A Heathrow passenger who uses Heathrow Express to connect to the airport

    from the

    Old

    Oak

    Common

    interchange

    would

    incur

    an

    additional

    journey

    time

    of

    between 18.5 to 23.5 minutes (dependent on final airport terminal destination, as described in 5.1). In comparison Table 4 shows the percentage additional journey time a passenger would face if routing via an at-airport station.

    The journey time to Heathrow from the north uses the HS2 declared journey time from the north to Old Oak Common as a proxy because HS2 did not provide

    journey times to Heathrow from non-London stations. This method is likely to over-estimate the time to get to Heathrow, reducing the additional journey time percentage.

    Table 4: Estimated journey times to Heathrow from the North

    Time to Heathrow (Old Oak Common

    proxy)

    Time via Old Oak Common

    % Increase in overall journey

    Glasgow/Edinburgh to Euston

    3h 23m 3h 42m +8.8%

    Newcastle to Euston 2h 30m 2h 49m +12.6%

    Manchester to Euston 1h 13m 1h 32m +26%

    Birmingham to Euston 42 m 1h +42%

    The percentage additional journey time that a Heathrow passenger would face is significantly higher than that faced by a Euston-bound passenger routing via Heathrow. In all likelihood the additional journey time faced by a Heathrow passenger will be even greater than indicated because:

    A Heathrow station will either be located at one of three terminals or be distant from all terminals in either case an additional transit to the passengers destination terminal will be required for many airport passengers.

    Unlike a Euston-bound passenger an airport passenger will have to interchange between trains at Old Oak Common a London-bound passenger simply remains on the train.

    It is not clear to BA whether HS2 have applied standard rail industry time penalties for interchanges at Old Oak Common for Heathrow passengers. BA understands the difference between a time penalty versus an interchange penalty. As a network airline our passengers are generally prepared to pay more to travel on a direct flight rather than a connecting flight. This applies to rail as well as air.

    It appears HS2 have underestimated the negative impact of routing airport passengers via Old Oak Common in their analysis.

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    5.4. Doubt over significance of small variations in journey time

    HS2 have argued that the additional journey time that a via-Heathrow routing would add to overall HSR journeys would reduce non-airport passenger demand.This effect is cited as a disbenefit to the HS2 case if routing via Heathrow.

    This is based on DfTs advice2

    for appraisal of transport schemes, which refers to the concept of Consumer Surplus when carrying out demand modelling. This approach assumes a linear relationship between time saved and the value of that time and also specifies that costs must be expressed in perceived cost terms.

    BA believes that the academic basis for this approach is the DFTs latest commissioned research on the topic from the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS)3. This is an academically unresolved concept and although the ITS report finds a preference for assuming a linear relationship even at low time savings it also states that:

    Effectively, the data is telling us that for time changes between 0 and 6 minutes,

    the value of time is more or less zero, for a further change of 5minutes the marginal value of time is on average 12.8p/min and thereafter it reverts to about 5p/min.

    Given the uncertainty in the evidence with regard to the Value of Travel Time Savings, its relevance to current Departmental advice and specifically to the issues faced in evaluating High Speed Rail options, BA would recommend at the very least that a high level sensitivity analysis be carried out of the impact that assigning a zero value to time savings of under 7mins with regard to the relative merits of an Old Oak Common vs. a London Heathrow interchange.

    5.5. Routing via Heathrow and Old Oak Common?

    HS2 Ltd assessed the option for routing to London via either Heathrow or Old Oak Common. They provided a base case of stopping at neither station. BA would argue that in order to properly assess the available options an assessment of serving both Heathrow and Old Oak Common should be made.

    The HS2 Ltd analysis shows that the Old Oak Common option increases passenger demand versus the Euston-only option. As previously discussed Heathrow was not fully assessed for the wider benefits it could bring as an interchange-type station to the South of England. The benefits that both of these options could deliver may outweigh the increased capital cost of providing two stations and the slightly increased journey times for London-bound passengers as well.

    The time disbenefit of serving two stations could be moderated through selective stopping, i.e. assuming a 7-train per hour service 5 trains could stop at Old Oak Common and 2 trains could stop at Heathrow. This would allow passengers to select which train best suited their travel needs. It could also allow specific airport

    2 http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.5.3.php 3 Value of Travel Time Savings in the UK. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. January 2003

    Page 13

    http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.5.3.phphttp://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.5.3.phphttp://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.5.3.php
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    trains to be used for an airline/rail codeshare product. BA believes such an option should be modelled for completeness.

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    6. Other arguments

    6.1. High Speed Rail market share in Scotland

    BA believes that the current HS2 analysis supporting the central business case

    seems to

    significantly

    over-estimate

    the

    number

    of

    passengers

    it

    is

    likely

    to

    serve

    from Scotland. A station at Heathrow would more than address this shortfall in passengers by providing additional passengers on services from Edinburgh and Glasgow, boosting the case for HSR to Scotland by more than 30%

    A report by Steer Davies Gleave (SDG) commissioned by the EC4 provides in-depth analysis as to the competition between air and rail and with respect to London-Edinburgh. It specifically concludes:

    On the London-Edinburgh route, low cost airlines undercut the rail operator on average. The relatively lower fares offered by airlines on the London-Edinburgh route appears to be one of the main reasons for the low rail market share on this

    route.

    The SDG report goes further by forecasting the rail market share for London -Edinburgh expected for 2016 given the significant analysis outlined in the report. It calculates that by 2016 rail will hold only 14% of the total London-Edinburgh market - continuing its downward trend.

    However HS2 state that they believe the rail market share for Scotland without HSR is forecast to be 34% 5. This is highly debatable given the recorded impact that lower airfares have had on the London-Edinburgh and indeed London-Glasgow market. Please see the chart in Appendix B for a more detailed discussion.

    If HS2s estimated market share is reduced to the lower value suggested in the SDG report then this would have a significant impact on the total number of passengers travelling on HS2 from Scotland reducing it by 30% overall. The already modest expected increase of 7,200 rail (HS and classic) passengers per day between London and Scotland could therefore be as low 5,000.

    There is a significant volume of Heathrow transfer passengers originating from Scotland, that could shift from Air to Rail if there were a Heathrow HSR station. In todays market this equates to 2,300 passengers a day, before taking into account any growth in the aviation market over time.

    If this BA analysis regarding the Rail market share from Scotland is correct then this figure alone more than reverses the short fall in the numbers outlined above.Therefore even if setting aside all other BA analysis in this submission it is clear that a station at LHR would boost the business case for HS serving Scotland by 30% or more.

    4 Air And Rail Competition and Complementarity. Steer Davies Gleave. August 2006. P2 Figure1. 5 HS2 Demand Model Analysis, para 10.2.8

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    7. Conclusion

    In this second submission BA has argued that:

    The number of passengers who would use a Heathrow at-airport HSR station is significantly higher than the 2,000 per day figure forecast by HS2.

    The number of air passengers transferring at non-UK airports is higher than estimated by HS2 and will grow significantly up to 2030.

    Further work should be done to fully quantify the wider economic and transport benefits that a Heathrow HSR station could provide to London and southern England this and the revised air forecast should then be used to determine the need for a Heathrow HSR station.

    The interchange potential offered at Heathrow Terminal 5 makes this a very strong contender for the site of an on-airport HSR station.

    Only four Heathrow Express trains per hour will quickly connect Old Oak Common to Heathrow the HS2 analysis should take account of the platform

    waiting time. The percentage increase in journey time for Heathrow passengers travelling

    via Old Oak Common is greater than that imposed on London-bound passengers routing via Heathrow HS2 analysis should also incorporate standard rail industry interchange time penalties.

    A cost-sensitivity analysis of small journey times (those under 7 minutes) should be applied to Old Oak Common versus Heathrow comparisons.

    In light of the wider benefits a Heathrow station may generate and the forecast demand that Old Oak Common generates an option with two London interchanges should be modelled trains could stop at one or the other thus mitigating travel time dis-benefits.

    HS2 have over-estimated the rail market share that HSR will achieve more effectively serving Scottish air transfer passengers at Heathrow would obviate this.

    The case for Heathrow to be served by high-speed rail is of strategic importance to the UK. BAs assessment of HS2 analysis is that it has been based solely on a business case for rail. This means that the benefits and disbenefits in other areas have not been fully considered.

    The impact of high-speed rail on Heathrow, and the wider benefits that an interchange station would bring to the South of England are examples of what has

    not yet been fully incorporated into analysis to date.The case needs to be made for the full high speed rail network and not just the London to Birmingham route of HS2.

    A full review of high speed rail access to Heathrow must be undertaken along with an assessment of the schemes impacts to the UK as a whole.

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    8. Appendices

    8.1. Appendix A UK regional air capacity

    This map shows the daily airline seat capacity at airports on the proposed HSR

    network

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    8.2. Appendix B London to Edinburgh market-share curves

    This graph is based on HS2 figure 9.2, but also plots alternative curves

    representing the London-Edinburgh market.It seems clear that HS2 has optimistically predicted a large rail market share of 50% (London-Edinburgh, green and yellow lines) when the latest trends and forecasts suggest a much more modest 24-28%. This can be seen by where the orange and blue horizontal dashed-lines intersect the Y-axis.

    LON-EDI Rail market-share curves (background sh ows HS2 Logit)HS 2 Modelled HS2 Jo urney Time

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

    Rail Journe y Time

    R a

    i l M a r k e

    t S h a r e

    More rec ent E DI curve S DG Forec ast EDI c urve 2016

    HS 2 report's s tate d future rail s hare HS2 report's im plied future rail s hare post- HS 2

    LON-EDI 1999

    LON-ED I 2004

    C urrent Rail Journey Time(4hr30)

    HS2 Mod elled HS2 journeytime (4hr)

    Source: BA analysis, HS2

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    9. British Airways contacts

    For further information on British Airways views on High Speed Rail and Heathrow Airport please contact either:

    Steve Ronald David Milford

    General Manager Airport Capacity Airport Policy & Infrastructure Manager

    Strategy & Planning Strategy & Planning

    British Airways Plc British Airways Plc

    Waterside (HFB2) Waterside (HFB2)

    PO Box 365 PO Box 365

    Harmondsworth Harmondsworth

    UB7 0GB UB7 0GB

    T: 07789 611416 T: 07789 616930

    E: [email protected] E: [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]