broadband study 2018 · breko broadband study 2018 source: bmvi report on the broadband atlas at...

26.09.2018

Broadband Study 2018Market survey among BREKO members

For the BREKO Broadband Study 2017, all BREKO network operators were interviewed (nationwide). Thestudy comprises data from around 90% of all BREKO network operators. In addition, data from publiclyavailable sources was used for verification and determination of total market figures. The research of themarket data and the analysis of the survey results were carried out by BREKO in cooperation with theconsultancy Böcker Ziemen Management Consultants GmbH & Co. KG.

BREKO Broadband Study 2018

Overview

2

01.Introduction BREKO

02.Evolution of broadband demand

03. Investments in the Telecoms Market

04. Available broadband connections in competitive comparison

05. Available broadband connections in regional comparison

06. Available broadband connections in technology comparison

07.Summary


BREKO network operators

3

BREKO's 180 network operators are the drivers of fibre deployment

180 network operators

throughout Germany

BREKO unites more than 80 %of broadband network operators in Germany

About 56 % of FTTB/H deployment by BREKO-network operators

Turnover in 2017: € 7.9 billion, expected in 2018: € 8.35 billion

Investments in 2017: € 2.1 billion, expected in 2018: € 2.2 billion

Broadband connections: 8 million, thereof 931,000 FTTB/H

18

14

3

8

14

34

8

4

5

11

30

29

1

1


21 29 33 47 60 80

291

825

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025

Average fixed network data volume per line and per months in GB (incl.TV and streaming services)

Source: Federal Network Agency Annual Report 2016, p. 53, Annual Report 2017, p. 53.59; Deloitte: Global Mobile Consumer Survey 2015, p. 17.

Evolution of data volume

4

A strong increase in data volume is expected in the fixed network. Additional note: 95% of tablet and 70% of smartphone internet use takes place in Wi-Fi networks. (Source: Deloitte)

Average fixed network data volume per line and per month in GB over timeACTUAL values BREKO forecast

38.1 % 13.8 % 42.4 % 27.7 % 33.3 %

263.8 %

183.5 %

CAGR*: 32.63 %

*Compound Annual Growth Rate: Average percentage growth over the years.


Source: BREKO Research (n=50).

Expected broadband demand

5

According to a forecast by BREKO members, the demand for broadband will accelerate until 2020/2025. The Upload section in particular is gaining significance.

Telekom


Source: Federal Network Agency Annual Report end 2017, pp. 48-49.

Total investments in fixed assets

6

Equal distribution of investments between Deutsche Telekom and its competitors in 2017. The impact of the vectoring decision in 2016 is clearly visible.

Investments in fixed assets in the telecoms market over time in € billion

2,83

2,8 2,9

3,4

3,9

4,4 4,3

3,13,3

3,6 3,7

4,2 4,1

3,94,2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Deutsche Telekom

Competitors

Total investments since1998: € 145 billion


Source: BREKO Research (n= 172-175); Deutsche Telekom Annual Report 2017, pp. 61-62.

Investment rates

7

High willingness of BREKO network operators to invest compared to Deutsche Telekom. Overall increasing investment rates since 2009.

Share of investments in turnover in % over time Share of investments in EBITDA in % over time

TelekomWettbewerber18

21 22

1921 22

24

21

25

1210

15

12 13 14

17 18 19

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BREKO Deutsche Telekom

79

90 9084 83

10395

7887

33 3021

31 35 3843 46

52

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

BREKO Deutsche Telekom


Source: BMVI report on the Broadband Atlas at the end of 2017, pp. 20-22.

Parallel roll-out

8

More than two-thirds of the investments in 2015, 2016 and 2017 did not contribute to the Governments broadband targets but have led to parallel roll-out. Vectoring decision apparent since 2016.

Households with connection bandwidths (fixed) in million ≥ 50 Mbps over time

TelekomWettbewerber

26.4427.85

30.1232.72

7.8

11.43

17.01

21.25

2014 2015 2016 2017

Number of connections ≥ 50 Mbps Parallel roll-out

29.50 %41.04 %

56.47 %

64.94 %


Source: BREKO Research (n= 110-119); Federal Network Agency Annual Report end 2016, pp. 52-53 and Annual Report end 2017, pp. 50-51.

Available connections by bit-rate

9

Share of high bit-rate connections is increasing. BREKO network operators account for the highest share of these connections.

-1,4 Mio.*

+1,3 Mio.*

+2,1 Mio.*

-0,8 Mio.*

*Im Vergleich zu 2016


Source: BREKO Research (n= 123); Presentation by Johannes Pruchnow (at the time Board Member for Broadband Communications at Deutsche Telekom) at the BREKO Fibre Fair in March 2018.

Available FTTB/H connections

10

The number of available FTTB/H connections is increasing. Approximately 82% of FTTB/H connections are provided by alternative network operators.

Number of available FTTB/H connections in million over time: Alternative network operators vs. Deutsche Telekom

TelekomWettbewerber

2.4

3.2

7

0.5 0.7

2

2016 2017 2020Competitors Deutsche Telekom

ACTUAL values BREKO forecast

For BREKO network operators, the number of FTTB/H connections

increased by 700,000 from 2016 to 2017.


Source: Report on the Broadband Atlas mid-2017, pp. 10-18.

Available broadband connections by region

11

Substantial differences in broadband availability between federal states.

Broadband availability (≥ 50 Mbps) by federal state for households in 2017 in % (fixed-line).

TelekomWettbewerber

97.3% 95.0% 92.2%86.5% 84.6% 83.3% 81.1% 79.6% 79.5% 79.4% 78.9%

67.3% 66.2% 65.6% 62.5%55.1%

0,0%10,0%20,0%30,0%40,0%50,0%60,0%70,0%80,0%90,0%

100,0%

Average: 78.4 %


Source: BREKO Research.

Federal funding programme by region (1/2)

12

Broadband deployment projects of the federal broadband funding programme. Large differences between the individual federal states are clearly visible.

Federal funding in € million per federal state

TelekomWettbewerber

0.38 1.30 7.55 7.7561.06 74.12

122.09 126.61167.75 171.77 192.63

271.64319.99

466.03

562.43

817.88

BE HB HH SL HE BW SH RP ST BY TH BB NI SN NRW MV

Total number of connectionsper household: 2,042,837 per company: 185,124 per institution: 16,242


Source: BREKO Research.

Federal funding programme by region (2/2)

13

Compared to the number of launched broadband projects, the amount of awarded funding is too low.

Proposed and approved projects

TelekomWettbewerber102

42

1

2417

54

135

30 33

1

95

51

1 1

18

93

7 4 010 5 0

14 15

0 111 11

0 0 0

31

BY BW SL RP HE TH SN ST BB BE NRW NI HB HH SH MV

Number of projects of which: finally approved


Source: FTTH Council Europe. The 3% figure for Germany is based on BREKO Research.

Available FTTB/H connections: European comparison

14

A comparison across the EU shows that Germany needs to catch up

Share of households with FTTB/H connections in % per EU country

TelekomWettbewerber

0

10

20

30

40

50

1.1 % 3 %

50.1 %

EU average: 13.9 %


Source: BMVI Report on the Broadband Atlas 2014-2016, p.7, Report on the Broadband Atlas 2017, p.7,22; *value based on BREKO estimates (deviation from primary source).

Available broadband connections by technology

15

The largest share of households with ≥ 50 Mbps is connected via CATV. Strong growth in vectoring technology.

*


The BREKO Broadband Study shows:

16

Build tomorrow’s infrastructure today, as the demand is already increasing.

Demand for broadband is increasing rapidly.

Fibre deployment is indispensable.

Fibre deployment is mainly driven by alternative network operators.

Federal funding is necessary but is not being used to a sufficient degree.

Bad investments as a result of parallel roll-out are apparent.

Recommendation: Cooperation prevents parallel roll-out and accelerates nationwide fibre deployment in Germany.

broadband study 2018 · breko broadband study 2018 source: bmvi report on the broadband atlas at...

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