brochure mosa q3 2012 qr

November 2012

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MOSA Quartely Report – Issue 19 Mobile Operator Strategies Analysis

Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL

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Research Value Hard Data + Disruptive Analysis =

Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.

November 2012

www.maravedis-bwa.com


Analyst Team

Customer Engagement Miami

Market Analyst LATAM Mexico

Adlane Fellah

Caroline Gabriel

Research Director London

Robert Syputa

Cintia Garza

Senior Advisor Seattle

Magnus Johansson

Senior Operator Advisor Lima

Esteban Monturus

Backhaul and RAN Barcelona

Basharat Ashai

Market Analyst APAC and MEA

India

Luis Reyes

Regulatory Research Mexico

November 2012



Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis

• The new evolution of 4G Counts

• Comprehensive data on the mobile broadband strategies of operators, plus unrivalled depth in qualitative analysis and forecasting

• Operator Profiles, KPIs • Spectrum, Network and device

Strategies • SWOT Analysis • Investment Forecasts by

Operator

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Deliverables:

November 2012 Introducing MOSA

Online Database

Monthly Research Notes

Quarterly Reports

Device Forecasts

Global Spectrum

Wireless Watch & Analyst time Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.

MOSA Matrix

• Top 100 4G operators analyzed against 10 key trends identified by MaRe for their impact on the 4G business case

• Small cells and HetNet

• Multiband LTE deployments including carrier aggregation

• TD-LTE and converged FD/TD-LTE

• Voice strategies including VoLTE

• LTE-Advanced deployment/contribution

• Cloud RAN

• Machine-to-machine services

• Advanced backhaul strategies

• Mobile cloud services

• Innovative applications including vertical markets

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DRIVERS CHALLENGES SOLUTIONS

Structure of MOSA

November 2012

In each key topic area, gold standard operators selected

and analyzed in depth for their market leadership in the area. The business case and

prospects of others are assessed against the same

criteria.





Tracking their networks, spending plans, business models, technology platforms. In-depth strategic profiles of key players.

Data, forecasts and full analysis on key backhaul technologies, trends and operator behaviour with detailed research notes

Data, forecasts and full analysis on key RAN technologies, trends and operator behaviour with detailed research notes on topics such as small cells and C-RAN.

Five- year forecasts for 4G RAN, device, subscriber and other key metrics

Comprehensive database and analysis on 4G spectrum .

Identifying and forecasting the next technologies which will change the mobile

landscape

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Key Components of MOSA

November 2012

Core MOSA data – top 100 4G operators.

Backhaul Service

Cell Service

4G Forecast Service

ClearSpectrum

Total Disruption

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

SECTION 1. DRIVERS 17 Mobile broadband traffic and forecast Mobile cloud services and forecast SWOT SKT Carrier apps and APIs, trends and forecast SWOT Telefonica Digital SECTION 2. CHALLENGES 30 Capacity crunch versus revenue squeeze Spectrum availability Global spectrum trends for LTE Quarterly developments Subsidies and device costs, trends and forecasts

Table of Contents (1) November 2012

8 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.

CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL


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November 2012 Table of Contents (2)

SECTION 3. SOLUTIONS 44 Small cells and HetNet, trends and forecast Challenges SWOT KDDI Carrier Wi-Fi Multiband and carrier aggregation SWOT AT&T TD-LTE trends and forecasts SWOT China Mobile The quarter’s deployments and highlights TDD/FDD convergence Challenges SWOT 3 Europe Advanced backhaul strategies Small cell backhaul SWOT China Mobile Cloud-RAN trends and forecasts M2M services

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CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL


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November 2012 Table of Contents (3)

Challenges and outlook SWOT Vodafone Voice and VoLTE strategies SWOT MetroPCS SECTION 4. TRENDS AND FORECASTS 74 FD-LTE Market Trends LTE subscriber trends and forecasts LTE data speeds and prices by region LTE contracts by vendor LTE device ecosystem – form factor and vendors WiMAX trends and forecasts Deployments Devices and base stations SECTION 5. FORECAST DATA 2012-2017 99 APPENDIX: List of LTE roll-outs worldwide June to October 2012 109

10 10 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.

CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL


November 2012

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Mobile Operator Strategies Analysis

11 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.

CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 11



November 2012

At the heart of the new Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis (MOSA) service is the MOSA Matrix. This assesses the Top 100 4G operators against the 10 key technology and business trends, identified by Maravedis-Rethink as critical for business success. For the third quarter of 2012, the following operators were identified as leaders in these areas:

TRENDS OPERATOR

Small Cells/HetNet KDDI

Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation AT&T

TD-LTE roadmap China Mobile

VoLTE and voice strategies MetroPCS

FDD/TDD convergence 3 Europe

Advanced Backhaul strategies China Mobile

Mobile Cloud services SK Telecom

M2M services Vodafone Europe

Carrier Applications inc vertical Telefonica Digital

Executive Summary



Selected research highlights in the MOSA key trends

TRENDS HIGHLIGHTS

Small Cells/HetNet Small cell sales reach 15.9m by 2017, exc WiFi

Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation CA to unlock underused bands for LTE esp L-band

TD-LTE roadmap TD-LTE capex $2.3bn in five years, 31% of 4G total

VoLTE and voice strategies VoLTE stems voice revenue decline with rich comms services but does not generate ARPU growth

FDD/TDD convergence By 2017, 83% of LTE devices capable of dual-mode

Advanced Backhaul strategies Fiber only 10% of small cell backhaul links 2017 despite huge projects eg China Mobile

Mobile Cloud services 74% of mobile data volume by 2017

M2M services 20% of carriers say M2M will be number one source of revenue growth 2013-17

Carrier Applications inc vertical Telefonica and SKT alone target $12bn from carrier apps 2017

Executive Summary November 2012

MOSA Key trends: Operators are struggling with explosion in over-the-top data, but they are regaining some control. Key tactics are:

•tiered tariffs and lower subsidies •mobile cloud services eg SK Planet. Will add $60 incremental ARPU by 2017 •carrier APIs

By 2017 operators will have added $150 in average annual ARPU from entirely new services driven by LTE. Key examples:

•M2M and smart grid •Mobile cloud especially enterprise •Multiscreen content delivery

Mobile operators will have invested a total of $34.7bn in the period from 2012 to 2017 in 4G infrastructure. That level of spend flattening out by 2017. By 2017, LTE subscriber base will reach 875.75m, 75% of these on the networks of the MOSA Top 100 operators.

Executive Summary November 2012





• Largest European M2M operator by connections (8.3m Q212), second in world to AT&T

• Growth rate 26% pa in devices, 33% in revenue – squeeze on ARPU

• Some key partners and customers: – Auto (BMW) – Smart home (leads Smarter Home

Initiative with IBM) – Smart grid (British Gas) – Industrial (integrated platform with

Bosch)

• Focuses on managed services, working with many module and SIM makers

• We expect M2M to be in its top three generators of additional revenue from LTE by 2017

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S. •Huge scale •Multinational services •Important long term partnerships eg Bosch, IBM

W. •Too reliant on slowing EU market •Limited control of module ecosystem •ARPU already declining rapidly

O. •Expand alliances beyond EU heartland •Leverage existing strong pact with China Mobile •Create added value services on top of M2M framework

T. •Fragmented market, different proposition needed for each sector •Cloud-focused Asian operators expanding to Europe •Device support issues

Sample SWOT: Vodafone Group M2M

November 2012



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We have produced two LTE subscriber forecasts: 1. MOSA Operator

Forecast: Based on input from operators themselves, this indicates the numbers for the key carriers, included in our top 100

2. Total Industry Forecast: Including estimates for the whole operator base, Maravedis-Rethink anticipates that by 2017 there will be approximately 875 million LTE subs.

Sample Forecast

November 2012


Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012. 15

TO ORDER OR TO REQUEST A LIVE DEMO, CONTACT:

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Adlane Fellah, Customer Engagement

Maravedis-Rethink US Land: +1(305) 865 1006

[email protected] www.mosaservice.com

mailto:[email protected]



brochure mosa q3 2012 qr

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