bruce greenwald fall 2015
TRANSCRIPT
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 1/24
>
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 2/24
N ZNED MC Z[M JDONJD_
_ixtids Lildtids
Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y
>93> 0.; ?.? >99> 3.; ?.0
>936 6.8 4.8 >996 8.3 4.4
>93? 6.> 4.4 >99? >:.? 4.0
>93: ?.: ;.? >99: >0.6 4.9
>934 :.3 8.0 >994 >.8 :.3
>933 4.0 8.4 >993 (>.9) 4.:
>93; 6.: 4.8 >99; (:.>) 4.9
>938 3.: 9.8 >998 (0.3) :.9
>939 ;.; 8.0 >999 >.4 4.4
6
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 3/24
Bmldtnry Pmeioy
B>nlj Lmbilne KJP >9:3-6008
0
6000
:000
3000
8000
>0000
>6000
>:000
>3000
> 9 : 3
> 9 : 8
> 9 4 0
> 9 4 6
> 9 4 :
> 9 4 3
> 9 4 8
> 9 3 0
> 9 3 6
> 9 3 :
> 9 3 3
> 9 3 8
> 9 ; 0
> 9 ; 6
> 9 ; :
> 9 ; 3
> 9 ; 8
> 9 8 0
> 9 8 6
> 9 8 :
> 9 8 3
> 9 8 8
> 9 9 0
> 9 9 6
> 9 9 :
> 9 9 3
> 9 9 8
6 0 0 0
6 0 0 6
6 0 0 :
6 0 0 3
6 0 0 8
F i e e i m l s m c T _ J
B> Lmbilne KJP
B>/ Lmbilne KJP >9:3-6008
0
0.04
0.>
0.>4
0.6
0.64
0.?
0.?4
0.:
0.:4
> 9 : 8
> 9 4 >
> 9 4 :
> 9 4 ;
> 9 3 0
> 9 3 ?
> 9 3 3
> 9 3 9
> 9 ; 6
> 9 ; 4
> 9 ; 8
> 9 8 >
> 9 8 :
> 9 8 ;
> 9 9 0
> 9 9 ?
> 9 9 3
> 9 9 9
6 0 0 6
6 0 0 4
6 0 0 8
B > / L m b i l n e K J P
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 4/24
Cilnloine Bnradt Ibpnot ml Vdne Notivity
Pdrcdot Ilcmrbntiml - Omst mc Culjs Mley
Ibpdrcdot Ilcmrbntiml - Omst Peus Nvnienfieity
• Culjilk Omlstrnilts
• Visa Omlstrnilts
‟ Eiquijity
‟
Jdcnuet/Vdkuentmry ‟ Bmrne Hnznrj
:
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 5/24
Jdpmsit Culjilk
• Omst / Pny-Mut• Wdrm Iltdrdst Vntd Odieilk (Lm Pny-Mut, Jisordtimlnry Pny-Mut)
• Ourrdlt Prnotiod (Bnradt Pny-Mut)
• Jurntiml• Dvdr Ilordnsilk Jdpmsits (Emlk Jurntiml)
• Ceuotuntilk Jdpmsits (_hmrt, Tlodrtnil Jurntiml)
Zrnjitimlne Vdkibd ‟ Jdpmsits nrd Pdrbnldlt, Wdrm
Pnymut Culjilk (Dquity)
Nbmult mc Jdpmsit ―Dquity‒ (Znx nlj _ufsijy) _dt
fy Bmldtnry Pmeioy
4
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 6/24
Iltdrdst Fdnrilk Jdpmsits
• Pnybdlts Fnsdj ml Bnradt ―Priod‒ mc Eiquij Culjilk
• Sneud mc Jdpmsits Jdpdljs ml _tnfieity/Jurntiml mc Jdpmsit Fnsd
• Dvdr Ilordnsilk Jdpmsit Fnsd Ibpeids Sneud is thnt mc Pdrbnldlt Culjilk
(Njgustnfed Vntd Emlk Zdrb Fmljs)
• ―Dxtrdbd‒ Pmeioy Iltdrvdltimls Ibpey Jdpmsit Culjilk Vdvdrsne ‟
Zdbpmrnry, Tlodrtnil Culjilk
• ―Dxtrdbd‒ Pmeioy is _dec-Onlodeeilk tm _mbd Jdkrdd
3
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 7/24
Histmrione Vmed mc T_ Fnla Ordjit
Ydnr
>944
>930
>934>939
>9;?
>9;9
>98?
>989>996
>993
600?
600;
60>?
Pdrodlt Fnla Ordjit
66.;
6?.0
6:.:64.:
6?.:
66.:
6?.0
60.9
>8.4
60.6
>:.?
>4.:
>?.0
;
Lml-Cilnloine Fusildss Ordjit
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 8/24
Visa Bnlnkdbdlt nlj Fnlailk _truoturd
Fnla Notivitids
• Zrnlsnotiml Prmodssilk ‟ Ombpdtitivd Bnradt,Emw Visa, Emw Vdturl
• Emone Fnlailk (Emnls, Jdpmsits) ‟ Emone _onedNjvnltnkds (Ilcmrbntiml, Mpdrntimls)
• Kemfne Ilvdstbdlt mc Dxodss Culjs ‟ Ombpdtitivd
Bnradt, Hikh Visa, Emw Vdturl
• _tnfieity, Prujdltine Vdkuentiml Ilvmevds Prdvdltiml / Omltrme mc Kemfne Ilvdstbdlt
• Domlmbio Sneud Njjdj il Emone Fnlailk
8
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 9/24
9
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 10/24
Omlsdqudlods mc Ilcmrbntimlne Njvnltnkds
• Emone / Lntimlne Cilnloine Ilstitutimls jmbilntd
• Gnpnldsd fnlas il Gnpnl
• Kdrbnl ilsurnlod o., il Kdrbnly
• Emone vdlturd onpitne cirbs
• T._. emone fnlas
• Emone Ilvdstbdlt Prdcdrdlod (Cdejstdil ‟ Hmrmian, Hufdrbnl)
• Mvdrsdns notivitids mc cilnloine ilstitutimls uljdr pdrcmrb
>0
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 11/24
>>
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 12/24
Pmeioy Netdrlntivds
• _truoturne ‟ Emone Fnlailk
Smeoadr Vued
• Cilnloine ‟ Edvdrnkd Bnlnkdbdlt
>6
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 13/24
>?
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 14/24
N ZNED MC Z[M JDONJD_
_ixtids Lildtids
Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y Ydnr %Κ B> %Κ Y
>93> 0.; ?.? >99> 3.; ?.0
>936 6.8 4.8 >996 8.3 4.4
>93? 6.> 4.4 >99? >:.? 4.0
>93: ?.: ;.? >99: >0.6 4.9
>934 :.3 8.0 >994 >.8 :.3
>933 4.0 8.4 >993 (>.9) 4.:
>93; 6.: 4.8 >99; (:.>) 4.9
>938 3.: 9.8 >998 (0.3) :.9
>939 ;.; 8.0 >999 >.4 4.4
>:
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 15/24
>4
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 16/24
>3
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 17/24
>;
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 18/24
Durm Nrdn Ibfnenlods
>8
Omultry Ourrdlt Noot _urpeus
(%)
Kmvt _urpeus
(%)
Iltdrdst Vntd
(>0 YV)
6009 60>> 6009 60>> 60>>
Kdrbnly 4.; 4.; (?.6) (>.0) >.6:
Ldthdrenljs :.6 9.3 (4.4) (:.3) >.38
Nustrin 6.; 6.> (:.>) (6.3) >.89
Cilenlj >.9 (0.8) (6.4) (0.3) >.:8
Crnlod (>.:) (6.6) (;.3) (4.6) 6.09
Irdenlj (6.8) 0.: (>:.0) (>?.0) 4.36
Itney (>.9) (?.:) (4.:) (?.9) 3.0?
_pnil (:.8) (?.3) (>>.6) (8.9) 3.;9
Pmrtukne (>>.0) (3.8) (>0.6) (:.6) >0.:;
Krddod (>0.9) (8.9) (>4.3) (9.6) 6:.63
Dstmlin, Euxdbfurk ‟ _urpeus (ON)
_emvnain, _emvdlin ‟ _bnee Jdcioit (ON), 4-8% Kmvt Jdcioit
Oyprus ‟ Fik Jdcioit (ON), 3% Kmvt Jdcioit
Bnetn - LN
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 19/24
Kemfne Ibfnenlods7 T_ _nvilks Vntd
>9
Ydnr _nvilks/Jispmsnfed Ilombd (%)
>930 >0.0
>9;0 >6.3
>980 >0.3
>984 8.3
>990 ;.8
>994 3.:
6000 :.0
6004 6.3
600; ?.0
6008 4.0
6009 3.>
60>0 4.3
60>> 4.;
60>6 4.3
60>? :.4
60>: ^> :.0
Zmp ‟ 60% 7 >4% _nvilks 40% Ilombd ;.4% _nvilks
Fmttmb ‟ 80%7 40% Ilombd (;.0%)_nvilks (?.4%) _nvilks
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 20/24
Zypione Fusildss Oyoeds
Dbpirione
• Jdbnlj (_uppey) _hmoa
• Ilvdltmry, Onpnoity Nooubuentiml (Jdft Cilnlodj)
• Fusildss Fnenlod _hddt Jdtdrimrntiml
• _hmrt _hnrp Omltrnotiml (3-9 bmlths)
• Ilvdltmry, Ilvdstbdlt Vdjuotiml
•
Fusildss Onsh Cemw Ibprmvdbdlt• Fnenlod _hddt Vdstmrntiml, Dxpnlsiml (:8 Bmlths Peus)
Zhdmrdtione
• Cirbs Hnvd Ilcmrbntimlne (Znx) Ilodltivds tm Edvdr-Tp
• Ilcmrbntimlne Omlstrnilts Vdstriot Cilnloine Bnradt
Jdedvdrnkilk (Dquity _ned) Dspdoineey Tljdr Orisis Omljitimls
• Fnenlod _hddt Vdstmrntiml Crmb Iltdrlne Onsh Cemws nlj Ilcmrbntiml Noquisitiml MvdrZibd
60
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 21/24
Emlk Zdrb Oyoeds
• Jdprdssiml
>9?0-6 OmltrnotimlVdentivdey _emw Vdomvdry
Lml-Vdomvdry(Nrkdltiln)
• Ourrdlt Vdodssiml
Emlk-Eivdj Omltrnotiml(Krddod, Itney, Durmpd)Vdentivdey _emw Vdomvdry(Gnpnl)
6>
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 22/24
Netdrlntivd Zhdmry
(>) _dotmrne Omeenpsd (Kemfneey)
• _dotmr Tljdr Prdssurd
• Onpnoity Ilordnsd, Priod Jdoeild
• Emone Ibpmvdrishbdlt, Ibbmfieity
• Onpnoity Ilordnsd
(6) _dotmr tm Domlmby Zrnlsbissiml
• Nsybbdtrio Jdbnlj Vdspmlsds tm Priod Bmvdbdlts
• Omlstrnildj _pdljilk
• Lml-Eildnr Vdspmlsd
• Emone _drviod Ibpnot (Ibbmfieity)
(?) Iltdrlntimlne Ombpdtitiml
• Prmtdotimlisb
• Jdvneuntiml
• Omlstrnilts ‟ Kemfne Fnenlod, Cilnloine Omlsdqudlods
66
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 23/24
Jdprdssiml Nlneysis• Nkrioueturne Omeenpsd
‟ >960s [dna
‟ >969-?6 Priod Omeenpsd
‟ >969-?6 Ilombd Omeenpsd
‟ >9?0-?6 Bmfieity Omeenpsd
(?0-?4% T_ Pmpuentiml)
• Zrnlsbissiml tm Frmnjdr Domlmby ‟ Nkrioueturne Jdbnlj Omeenpsd Mutwdikhs Fdldcits mc Emwdr Cmmj Priods
‟ Vurne _drviod Ilombd Omeenpsd
‟ Jdft Jdcentiml Ibpnot
• Iltdrlntimlne Ombpdtitiml ‟ Omultry Vdomvdrids Vdentdj tm Jdvneuntimls (Nrkdltiln, Nustrnein)
‟ Jdvneuntiml Omlstrnilt Prdvdlt Kemfne Vdomvdry
• Pmeioy _meutiml ‟ [mrej [nr II Cilnlods Vurne tm Trfnl Zrnlsitiml
‟ Lml-Vdnppdnrnlod mc Jdprdssiml
‟ Lml-Vdomvdry (Nrkdltiln)
6?
8/10/2019 Bruce Greenwald Fall 2015
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/bruce-greenwald-fall-2015 24/24
Ourrdlt Orisis
• Bnlucnoturilk Omeenpsd
- Zdbpmrneey Dxtdljdj
(T_ >9;9-8:1 Gnpnl >989, Nsin Orisis)
- Orisis Kdldrntdj fy Hukd Nsinl Onpnoity
Njjitimls (Pmst ‟ 6000)
• Zrnlsbissiml tm Frmnjdr Domlmby
• Iltdrlntimlne Ombpdtitiml
- Nsinl Ourrdloy Bnlnkdbdlt
- Durm Ibfnenlods
• Pmeioy _meutiml
- Lmwhdrd il _ikht
6: