Understanding Trump’s Washington

10 Key Lessons for PACE

Bruce Mehlman &

David Thomas

March 21, 2017

PERSPECTIVE: We’re Still in the “Top of the First Inning”

1401 Days Remaining60

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee-tracker/database/

Way Too Early for Conclusions… Team Just Starting to Arrive

2

TEN Things To Understand for 2017

3

The Road Ahead:

#1. The Disruptions Will Continue

4

By Design: Historically Outside-the-Beltway Cabinet

Source: NPR analysis of Initial Cabinet officials, updated Feb. 16, 2017

CABINETMEMBERS’

RESUME EXPERIENCE

Government Experience

81% 81% 91% 91% 57%

Military Experience

48% 48% 32% 9% 29%

CEO 5% 14% 18% 0% 24%

PhD 19% 24% 9% 23% 0%

#2. WH Still Establishing Its Rhythm

5

Competing Power Centers, Similar to 1993 Clinton WH

7

Bowling Green Massacre

Nordstrom’s

Alternative Facts

Fake News

Inaugural Crowd Size

OBAMACARE ABORTION TRADE ENERGY IMMIGRATION SCOTUS

So-Called JudgeHolocaust

Remembrance

#lastnightinSweden

Worst Deal Ever

NATO

#3. There is a Game Plan: Doing What He Said He’d Do

Mar-a-Lago

Wiretapping Trump Tower

Arnold & Apprentice

The Road Ahead:

#4. WINNING: Republicans (Trump’s Base) Very Happy

7

Republicans Rate Trump Higher than Reagan, Bushes(Dems Rate Him Lower Than Putin)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1981 1989 1993 2001 2009 2017

President’s Own Party Approval

Opposition Party Approval

39

5249

76

49

36

Source: Pew, Feb. of President’s 1st Term, 1st year; (Gallup for ‘81 & ‘89)

#5. Loyal Opposition Demanding 100% Resistance

Consumers

Celebrities

Politicians

Grassroots

8

#6. HOUSE: GOP Politics vs. Policy

Source: Public dataset, Author’s calculations9

POLICYHouse Republicans Ran On :

POLITICSHouse GOP Districts

Carried by Trump Carried by Clinton

#7. SENATE: Supermajorities Scarce = Filibuster @ Risk

Republicans Need 8 Democrats to Overcome Filibusters

Most “Gettable” D Votes for Rs Most “Lose-able” R Votes

GLOBALISTS (Defense, Immigration)

MODERATES / VULNERABLE

PHILOSOPHICALLY-OPPOSED

McCAIN GRAHAM RUBIO

MURKOWSKI COLLINS

FLAKE SASSE PAUL

HELLER

YUGE TRUMP ‘16 MARGINS

MANCHIN (WV) (T +42.15%)

HEITKAMP (ND)(T +35.73%)

TESTER (MT)(T +20.42%)

DONNELLY (IN) (T +18.91%)

NARROW TRUMP ‘16 MARGINS

BROWN (OH) (T +8.13%)

NELSON (FL) (T +1.2%)

BALDWIN (WI) (T +0.77%)

CASEY (PA) (T +0.73%)

STABENOW (MI) (T +0.23%)

Democrats Need 3 Republicans for a Majority

BIGLY TRUMP ‘16 MARGINS

18

MCCASKILL (MO) (T +18.63%)

#8. WINNING2: Wall Street Exuberant

Near-Record Low Volatility

Record High Stock Prices Consumer Confidence Restored

Small Business Confidence Surging

11

#9. Global Picture Less Clear

Allies Uncertain Enemies Probing Alternatives Emerging

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#10. Our System Is Resilient…

Checks Are Checking, Balances Are Balancing

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THREE Conclusions for PACE

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#1. Expect More Regulating, Less Legislating

SLOWER THAN WE THOUGHT1) Confirmations2) Health Care / Replacing ACA3) Funding rest of FY17/ Shutdown4) Tax Reform5) FY18 Funding / Shutdown6) Debt Ceiling / Shutdown7) Infrastructure Investment

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FASTER THAN WE THINK1) Immigration Enforcement2) Energy / Climate / EPA3) Health Care regulation4) Trade Enforcement5) Labor (OT, IC, pay data)

6) Dodd-Frank reforms

The Road Ahead:

#2. Our Bipartisan Approach Serves Us Well

33

Unilateral Accomplishments Rarely Endure

Walking Dead Built to Last

42 Republicans + 12 DemocratsSenate: 60 Democrats + 0 Republicans

FCC: 3 Democrats + 0 Republicans

0 lawmakers voted to ratify

House: 236 Republicans + 178 Democrats

1996 Telecom Act

Medicare Pt. D

Passed Senate by Unanimous Consent

#3. Play the Long Game & Educate!

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Pre-1992 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Democrats Republicans

House Members by Year of Arrival

Source: Public dataset, Author’s calculations21

New Administration

72% Rs, 52% Ds Never Served Under Republican President

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