buckinghamshire, brexit and engineering · manufacturing computer & electronic products...
TRANSCRIPT
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Buckinghamshire, Brexit and Engineering
Rupert Waters
24 February 2017
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Productivity
“More balanced growth
across the country can
enable higher growth for
the United Kingdom
overall”
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Productivity
75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
Buckinghamshire CC
Bristol, City of
Leeds
Manchester
Tyneside
Liverpool
Birmingham
Sheffield
Nottingham
2015
2014
2013
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Output growth by sector
Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production
Manufacturing Construction
Distribution; transport; accommodation and food
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Business service activities
Public administration; education; health
Other services and household activities
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
GV
A,
20
15
(£
m)
Change in GVA, 2010-2015, %
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Manufacturing output
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
% o
f B
uckin
gh
am
sh
ire G
VA
GV
A,
£m
£m (LHS)
Share of total (RHS)
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Exports
R² = 0.1725
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Valu
e o
f exp
ort
s p
er
job
, £
GVA per hour worked, £
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Buckinghamshire Occupational Change 2014-24
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
1 Managers, Directors And Senior Officials
2 Professional
3 Associate Professional And Technical
4 Administrative And Secretarial
5 Skilled Trades
6 Caring, Leisure And Other Service
7 Sales And Customer Service
8 Process, Plant And Machine Operatives
9 Elementary
Expansion
Replacement
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Forecast Industrial Change
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Accomodation, Food Services & Recreation Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Construction Extraction & Mining
Finance & Insurance Information & communication
Manufacturing Professional & Other Private Services
Public Services Transport & storage
Utilities Wholesale & Retail
Cumulative total (RHS)Source: Experian Local Markets Forecast ©, December 2016
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Manufacturing recruitment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1
20162015201420132012
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Manufacturing recruitment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1
20162015201420132012
Manufacturing
Professional
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Impact of Brexit
Source: Experian Local Markets Forecast ©, December 2016
-1200 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400
Public Services
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail
Information & communication
Accomodation, Food Services & Recreation
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Transport & storage
Finance & Insurance
Utilities
Professional & Other Private Services
Construction
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Impact of Brexit
-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Workforce jobs
Manufacturing
Computer & Electronic Products
Non-Metallic Products
Metal Products
Textiles & Clothing
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Machinery & Equipment
Pharmaceuticals
Other Manufacturing
Wood & Paper
Printing and Recorded Media
Source: Experian Local Markets Forecast ©, December 2016
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Impact of Brexit
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Client base
Online presence
Investment in markerting
Investment in equipment / machinery
Staffing levels
R&D activity
Exporting
Importing
Number of premises / branches
Investment in training
Eurocurrency bank accounts
For next 12 months
Change since EU referendum
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Industrial Strategy
“Its objective is to improve living standards and economic growth by
increasing productivity and driving growth across the whole country”
38 consultation questions, including
• What should be the priority areas for science, research and innovation
investment?
• What else can the UK do to create an environment that supports the
commercialisation of ideas?
• How can we best support research and innovation strengths in local areas?
• How can we link the skills needs of industry to skills provision
• How can we encourage and enable people to retrain and upskill throughout
their working lives?
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Closing remarks
Manufacturing employment forecast to continue to fall…
… but forecasts strengthening
Goods exports low but high value
Occupational profile is changing
Professional occupations rising across the county…
… but not in manufacturing
Research questions