budget2011-12 expectations

8/6/2019 Budget2011-12 expectations

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Budget 2011-12 PreviewTightrope walking

Emkay Research Team

16 February, 2011

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.


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Further stimulus rollback likely

Rollback of excise duty likely in select sectors

The pre-crisis excise duty at 14% was cut to 8% after the fiscal stimulus, and currently stand at 10%. With stronggrowth in sectors like small cars and low inflation in man-made fibers, the rate may be raised to 12%. In large carsand UV also the excise duty may be raised

Likely rollback of service tax and including more services

The service rates was spared in last budget and looking at the strong growth in services coupled with 16% GST

rates in future, service tax may be increased to 12%. This would also not impact the inflation as much as the exciseduty increase. There may be inclusion of more services under service tax

Customs duty on petroleum products may be reduced

With steep inflationary pressures building up in fuel items and rising subsidy bill, the customs duty on crude

oil/petrochemicals/fuel products may be reduced/waived. The current duty rates are: crude oil 5%, auto fuel 7.5% and other petrochemicals 10%


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Fiscal deficit to be under pressure

No bonanza revenues next year

The unexpected 3G bonanza of ~Rs.720bn had acted as a buffer to absorb a good part of the fiscal deficit in FY11.Come FY12, such unexpected deficit support is not foreseen. Fiscal deficit for FY12 is likely to spill over the target.

Subsidies to see an increase

We expect the total subsidy bills on food/fertilisers/fuels to go up by ~Rs800bn from the budgeted estimates. Thepetroleum subsidy would see a drastic uptick if the price of crude were to increase through FY12. This wouldundermine the ability of the government to tame the fiscal deficit and consequently inflation.

Augmentation of revenues to be key thing

In such scenario, key thing to focus will be augmenting the revenues which may include Raising excise duty/customs duty rates in few products

Raising service tax rate

Introduction of voluntary disclosure of income scheme

0.73511Oil Price at $100

0.62438Oil price at $90

0.51361Oil price at $80

% of GDPRs. BnPrice dependent subsidy burden


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Fiscal deficit to be under pressure (Contd)

Including the excess subsidies ofRs800bn each in FY11RE/12BE

FY11BE on tax revenues to beovershot by ~Rs350bn

Government accounts

FY10 FY11BE FY11RE FY12BE

ReceiptsRevenue receipt 5,773 6,822 7,904 8,316

Tax (net) 4,651 5,341 5,723 6,985

Non tax 1,122 1,481 2,181 1,331

Capital receipt 302 451 451 311

Revcovery of loans 43 51 51 51

Others 260 400 400 260

Total receipt 6,075 7,273 8,355 8,627

ExpenditureNon-plan expenditure 7,064 7,361 8,161 8,599

Non-plan rev expenditure (Excl Int) 4,037 3,949 3,949 4,028

Revenue 6,419 6,436 7,236 7,600

Interest 2,195 2,487 2,487 2,771

Additional Subsidy 187 0 800 800

Capital 644 925 925 999

Plan expenditure 3,152 3,731 3,731 4,262

Revenue 2,644 3,151 3,151 3,624

Capital 508 580 580 638Total expenditure 10,215 11,092 11,892 12,860

Revenue 9,064 9,587 10,387 11,224

Capital 1,152 1,505 1,505 1,637

Fiscal surplus/(deficit) (4,140) (3,819) (3,537) (4,233)

As % of nominal GDP -6.7% -5.5% -5.1% -5.4%


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Agri-input and chemicals

Last Budget

Fertiliser subsidy for FY10-11 budgeted at Rs 500 bn, a tad lower than subsidy of Rs 530 bn in FY09-10.Government also assured of disbursing all subsidy in cash as against partial payment in bonds in previousyears

Introduced Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme on DAP / complex fertilisers resulting in fixed subsidy floating price regime enabling all complex fertiliser companies to charge their own prices to the farmers

Urea prices increased by 10% to the farmers with effect from April 2010

Excise duty on chemicals was rolled back from 8% to 10%

Changes during the year

Upward revision in budgetary provision for fertiliser subsidy by Rs 50 bn to Rs 550 bn under secondsupplementary grant due to high fertiliser prices throughout the year. However estimated fertiliser subsidy forFY10-11 now stands at Rs 800 bn

Reduction in subsidy rates for DAP / complex fertilisers under NBS by ~20% effective from Apr 1st 2011 however the same has been rolled back due to high raw material prices globally


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Agri-input and chemicals (Contd)

Industry wish list

Rural development schemes like NREGA, Rural Infrastructure Development, thrust on irrigation projects etcshould continue

Fertiliser subsidy for FY10-11 should be revised to Rs 800 bn and subsidy provisioning for FY11-12 should besimilar, considering growing fertiliser demand and rising raw material prices

Urea should be brought under the NBS with adequate policies to reward efficient players. Gas based playerscan be compensated through gas pooling arrangements while non-gas based players should be compensatedfor their high input cost up until adequate infrastructure for gas is in place

New Investment Policy for urea should be introduced to address the issue of poor return on investments.Alongside, the government should also make provisions to ensure long term availability of gas

Maintain excise and custom duty on chemicals at present level

Our expectations

Thrust on rural development programmes to continue with sustained focus on irrigation, disbursement of agricredit etc

NBS to be introduced partially for urea as we expect new investment policy for urea to be formulated

Expect excise duty on chemicals to be increased from 10% to 12%


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Auto

Last budget

Increase in excise duty by 2%

Industry wish list

No increase in excise duty rate

Reduction in disparity of excise duty between small cars and large cars/UVs.

Our expectations

We expect increase in excise duty rates atleast for some segments of the auto industry. We do not rule outlower excise duty hike/no hike in case of two wheelers and CVs vis a vis that for cars (especially large cars) andUVs.


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Banking and financial services

Last budget

Fiscal deficit higher at 5.5% of GDP for FY11 with net government borrowing of Rs3.5tn

Extension of interest subvention on export credit of 2% on pre-shipment credit and Interest subvention on

farmers credit increased to 2%

Continuing the take out financing by IIFCL

Increase in recapitalisation funds to Rs165bn

Agriculture credit at Rs3750bn, up 15%

Remarks on possibility of banking licenses being given to private players including NBFCs

Industry wish list

Reduce the tenure limit for tax exempt deposits from five years to three years

Continuing of the interest subvention on pre-shipment credit and farm credit

Some package for state electricity boards as they are facing severe liquidity crunch

Our expectations

The deficit likely to be at Rs3.9tn or 4.9% of GDP; a flat borrowing figure should be positive for bond yields

Reduction in tenure for deposits may not happen

Package for SEBs may be given as it may result in NPAs otherwise

The farm credit targets to be set at Rs4250-4500bn

Interest rate subvention on farm credit may continue but on pre-shipment credit may be removed

Some measures to increase the depth and liquidity in the corporate bond market


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Capital Goods and Infrastructure

Last Budget

Budgetary allocation increased for (1) Bharat Nirman (+6% to Rs480 bn) (2) JNNURM (-10% to Rs116 bn), (3)

APDRP (+78% to Rs37 bn), (4) Roadways (+13% to Rs199 bn) (5) Railways (+6% to Rs168 bn) and (6)Renewable energy (+61% to Rs10.0 bn)

Financing of infrastructure projects fast-tracked through the medium of IIFCL - Aggressive targets set for IIFCL (1)

disbursements to improve from Rs90 bn in FY10 to Rs200 bn in FY11E, (2) refinancing to banks to increase fromRs30 bn to Rs60 bn and (3) take-out financing to increase to Rs250 bn

MAT rate increased from 15% to 18% - negative for infrastructure developers

Deduction u/s 80 CCF for an additional Rs 20,000 in long term tax saving infrastructure bonds, over and above

the Rs 1 lakh limit prescribed u/s 80C

Industry wish list

Continued thrust on development spending i.e. higher allocation to flagship programs of Bharat Nirman,

JNNURM, APDRP, NHDP, AIBP and renewable energy resources

Enabling policies along with clear roadmap to expedite roll-out of infrastructure projects i.e. clearance of land,statutory, environment, etc

Reduction in MAT rate - currently applicable at 18%

Section 80IA and 80IB extension of time limit to avail fiscal benefits for projects been commissioned beyond

March 2011

To eliminate the cascading effect of double taxation in case of dividend distribution tax for corporate adopting

more than single tier structure

Selectively raise import barriers for capital equipment, especially power equipment to facilitate domestic players

Enabling policies to increase capital flows to the infrastructure sector at lower financing costs- similar lines ofinfrastructure bonds issued in FY10-11 providing additional tax exemption of Rs20,000 to investors


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Capital Goods and Infrastructure (Contd)

Our expectations

Thrust on infrastructure and asset creation - expect higher allocation to flagship programs of Bharat Nirman,

JNNURM, APDRP, NHDP, AIBP and renewable energy resources. Expect special focus on Road, Bridges, WaterSanitation & Urban infrastructure.

Expect 2% increase in Cenvat rate from 10% to 12%- would be applicable to capital goods at large

Import barriers for capital equipment (specifically power) unlikely to be raised in light of substantial slippages inachieving the 11th plan targets for capacity addition

MAT rate would remain unchanged, owing to fiscal management

Take-out financing mechanism from IIFCL has not achieved desired objective. The key issue is competitivenessof IIFCL versus commercial banks. Thus, 2011-13 budget will objectively try to address the above shortcomingsand help IIFCL achieve stated objective

Expect enactment of enabling policies to expedite roll-out of infrastructure projects

Benefits under Sec 80IA and 80IB likely to be extended extension of time limit to avail fiscal benefits for projectsbeen commissioned beyond March 2011

Deemed export status for equipment supply to high priority infrastructure projects

Easing ECB norms especially for infrastructure projects to attract debt funds into the sector


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Cement Industry

Last budget

Excise duty on cement with MRP above Rs190/bag @ 10% a. For cement sold below Rs190/bag excise duty

Rs290/ton

Excise duty on clinker hiked from Rs300/ton to Rs375/ton

Clean energy cess of Rs50/ton imposed on coal

Industry wish list

Industry has sought a uniform rate of Excise Duty on Cement as compared to differential rate of excise duty on

cement sold above or below MRP of Rs190/bag Abatement of 55% on Excise duty levied on MRP basis

Import duty on coal/pet coke and gypsum be abolished, in line with principle that duty on raw material be higherthan duty on finished product

VAT on cement and clinker (currently at 12.5%) be brought down to 4 % in line with steel, and cement beincluded in the Declared Goods category

Royalty paid on limestone and duty/cess paid on indigenous coal be allowed as credit either as Cenvat creditor as VAT credit.

Our Expectations

We expect industrys demand of uniform excise duty will get some ears from Govt.

On rest all we expect the Govt to maintain status quo.


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FMCG

Last Budget

Increase in allocations to social and development programs aimed for rural India like Indira Gandhi Vikas

Yojana, NREGA, Bharat Nirman, Indira Awas Yojana and Krishi Vikas Yojana

Increase in personal income tax exemption limits higher disposable incomes resulting in impetus to overalldemand

Effective MAT rate increased from 15% to 18%

Increase in Cenvat rate from 8% to 10%

Structural changes in excise duty on tobacco products weighted average increase in excise duty on Cigarettes

at 15-17%

Specific increase in excise duty of Sanitary Napkins and Diapers from 0% to 10%


Excise exemptions for units in hilly areas (HP) and backward areas (North East) extended by another 5 yearsfor units registered and operational before 31st March 2016 (31st March 2011 earlier)


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FMCG (Contd)

Industry Wish List

Continued thrust and higher allocations to social and developmental programs especially MGNREGA

No change in Cenvat rate, considering the high inflation and rising input prices

No change in excise rate on tobacco products, considering revamp in duty structures and changes implementedin previous union budget

Increase in service tax from 10% to 12%

Reduction of MAT rate currently applicable at 18%

Roadmap for FDI in retail sector

Roadmap for implementation of DTC and GST

Our Expectations

Higher allocations to social and development programs targeted for rural India like Indira Gandhi VikasYojana, NREGA, Bharat Nirman, Indira Awas Yojana and Krishi Vikas Yojana

Cenvat rate to increase from 10% to 12% - full rollback of fiscal stimulus granted in FY09-10

Raise Service tax from 10% to 12% - largely to bring rate of goods and services at one level

Excise duty on Cigarettes to increase marginally & not significantly since large increase was implemented inFY10-11

MAT rate would remain unchanged, owing to fiscal management

GST would remain hidden agenda in budget but not at fore


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IT / ITES Services

Last budget

Increase in MAT Rate from 15% to 18% of book profits to hurt cash flows , though no impact on earnings

Union Budget remained silent on extending STPI Tax benefits available to Indian IT/ITES companies underSection 10A/10 B of the Income Tax Act1961 beyond March 312011.

Anomaly on the effective date for Section 10AA benefits available to SEZ units corrected with the benefitseffective with retrospective effect from April 106.

Industry wish list

Extension of Tax benefits available to Indian IT/ITES companies beyond the deadline of March 312011 asseveral mid cap IT companies are lagging behind in terms of expansion through SEZ.

Our expectations

We would be positively surprised by extension of Section 10A/10B benefits given Demand for offshore ITservices remain strong.

Any increase in Income Tax slabs/ reduction in Tax Rates would be positive as in companies could be able to

reduce effective salary increments on a/c of higher take home salaries for employees


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Media

Last budget

Concession on custom duty by 5% with full exemption from special additional duty on digital head end

equipment

Industry wish list

Relaxation in FDI norms - Increase in FDI limits from currently 49% in DTH and cable, 26% in newsbroadcasting & print media and 20% in radio sector

Reduction in service tax - Broadcasters are subject to levy of service tax @12.24% unlike print mediacompanies.

Our expectations

We expect relaxation in FDI norms in budget as it also been recommended by TRAI.


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Metals and Mining

Last budget

Increase in excise duty from 8% to 10%

Increase MAT from 15% to 18%

Increase on custom duty on silver by Rs 500/ kg

Increase in total infrastructure spend to ~Rs 1730 bn

Allocation of captive coal blocks through competitive bidding


Export duty on iron ore lumps hiked to 15% from 10%

Industry wish list

Reduction/ removal of 5% import duty on coke/ coking coal

Increase of export duty on iron ore fines from 5%

Higher infrastructure spending

Hike in import duty on HR coil from 5%

Regulatory body for competitive bidding in coal block auction


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Metals and Mining (Contd)

Our expectations

Duty on coke/ coking coal may be reduced

Export duty on iron ore fines is not likely to be hiked

We dont expect hike in import duty on HR coil, in fact looking at inflationary pressure there might be pressure toremove of import duty on HR coil

We dont expect any further hike in excise duty

Impact on sector

Removal/ reduction in coking coal/ coke would be a respite for the steel industry

Hike in export duty on iron ore fines would be a dampener for companies like Sesa Goa, no significant impact islikely on steel industry

Some states have been urging the centre to hike royalty rates on minerals, if it happens then that would be a

negative for the mining industry as well as for the user industry due to cost escalation


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Oil & Gas

Last budget

Restore the custom duty from NIL to 5% on crude oil

7.5% custom duty on diesel and petrol (from 2.5% earlier) and 10% on other refined products (from 5% earlier)

Central excise duty on petrol and diesel enhanced by Re.1/ Litre each.

MAT increase from 15% to 18%


Partial implementation of Kirit Parekh Committees recommendation: The government has fully deregulated

petrol prices and partial deregulation of diesel prices. However, prices of LPG and SKO has increased byRs.35/cyl and Rs.3/ltr respectively.

Government has notified section 16 for PNGRB to authorized gas pipelines and the city gas distribution (CGD)networks.

Industry wish list

Tax holiday on City Gas Distribution business

Diesel deregulation

Our expectations

Reduction in custom and excise duty on crude oil and petroleum products to reduce the total under recovery ofpetroleum products Positives for OMCs and upstream companies due to reduction in total under recoveries

Full deregulation of diesel prices Positives for the companies like IOCL, BPCL, HPCL, ONGC, OIL, GAIL


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Paper

Last Budget

Increase in MAT rate from 15% to 18%

Clean energy cess of Rs 50 /mt was levied on imported and indigenous coal

Paper continues to enjoy concessional excise duty rates at 4% while custom duty remained unchanged onpaper at 10% and on pulp at 5%

Industry wish list

To keep the current excise and custom duty structure - unchanged

Our Expectations

We expect paper industry to continue to enjoy concessional excise duty rates at 4%

Custom duty rate may also continue at current levels


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Pharma

Last Budget

MAT hiked to 18% from 15%

Excise duty on API hiked from 8% to 10%

Extended weighted average deduction on in-house R&D to 200% from 150%

Allocation on Healthcare sector has been increased to Rs 223bn from Rs196bn

Industry Wish list

The 5 yr tax holiday for healthcare infrastructure in tier-2 and tier-3 towns should be extended to 10 yrs

Concessional rate or removal of duties for certain categories of life saving drugs

Increase in allocation on healthcare infrastructure and healthcare sector be given infrastructure status

Expenses incurred outside R&D facility like those on overseas trials, preparations of dossiers, consulting & legalfees, ANDAs should be eligible for weighted deduction

Reduction of excise duty on API from 10% to 8%

Our Expectations

Concessional rate for certain categories of life saving drugs

Tax holidays for healthcare facilities in tier-2 and tier-3 town to be extended to 10 yrs from 5 yrs

Expenses incurred outside R&D facility like those on overseas trials, preparations of dossiers, consulting & legalfees, ANDAs should be eligible for weighted deduction

FDI cap likely to be reduced from current 100% to 49%


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Power

Last budget

Last budget was negative for private power utilities and neutral for regulated utilities.

Coal cess of Rs50/MT imposed impacting private utilities ROE negatively

16% customs duty imposed on electricity supplied from SEZ Was negative for Adani Power However the

company currently has gone to GERC to claim the reimbursement of duty as this is a change in law and is passthrough under PPA

MAT rate hiked to 18% (from 15% earlier) - negative for private utilities as most of them have SPVs to executepower projects with no taxable profits currently meaning thereby that they would be falling under MAT.

APDRP and RGGVY outlay to Rs37bn and Rs55bn, up 77% & down 21% over FY09-10 budgetary allocation positive for transmission and distribution companies was positive for T&D Companies.

Plan outlay for the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy - Rs6.2bn in FY09-FY10 Increased by 61 per cent toRs.10bn in FY10-11.

Competitive bidding process for allocating coal blocks for captive mining to ensure greater transparency andincreased participation in production from these blocks was introduced.

Changes during the year no significant changes have taken place

Renewable energy certificate regulations issued with guidelines for its trading.

Government issued guidelines for grid-connected solar power projects


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Power (Contd)

Industry wish list

Extension of terminal date (31.03.2011 as of now) of tax holidays under section 80 IA.

Increase in allocations to APDRP, RGGVY and new and renewable energy ministry likely to be hikedsignificantly from previous budget allocations of Rs37bn, Rs55bn and Rs10bn respectively.

Announcement on formation a debt fund that will raise low-cost and long-term resources to re-finance powerprojects.

Focus on rural electrification/power distribution with greater involvement of private players incentives,establishment of a separate fund etc.

Our Expectations

There could be an increase in coal cess and also it might be only for private power utilities selling at marketprices and not for cost plus projects.

Extension of terminal date (31.03.2011 as of now) of tax holidays under section 80 IA.

Increase in allocations to APDRP, RGGVY and new and renewable energy ministry likely to be hikedsignificantly from previous budget allocations of Rs37bn, Rs55bn and Rs10bn respectively.

Focus on rural electrification/power distribution with greater involvement of private players incentives,establishment of a separate fund etc.

Allocations of captive coal blocks clarity on bidding criteria and royalty amount


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Telecom

Last budget

Hike in MAT - Increase in MAT from 15% to 18%

Extension of tax sops for mobile manufacturers - Extension of tax sops to mobile manufacturing companies toencourage manufacturing of mobile handsets in the country.

Industry wish list

Re-introduction of the tax holiday benefits under Section 80IA of the I-T Act to operators similar to provision thatexempted operators commencing services prior to 2005

Clarity on MAT credit available under Section 115JAA of the I-T Act would continue to be available in case ofmerger/acquisition. Providing tax breaks to telecom infrastructure service providers

To extend Income Tax benefits under Section 80-IA to Independent Infrastructure Service Providers. GrantingInfrastructure status to Independent Telecom Infrastructure Providers as a separate entry u/s 80-IA(4)

No import duty to be imposed on imported mobile handsets

Our expectations

We expect relaxation in the taxation norms to telecom service providers and telecom infrastructure companies,given the capital intensive nature of the sector.

The government is expected to impose import duty on imported mobile handsets to encourage the domesticproduction.


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