Buenos Aires, September 30th, 2014

Service Planning

Improvements, a recent experience in Mexibus

III

Content

Field data results Frequency and occupancy Board and alightments Demand / Capacity relationships

Financial Aspects Finances of the Infrastructure Concessionaire Finances of the fleet operator Current system situation Currentsystem demand profile

Recommendations

Frequency and Occupancy

Demand serviced by Mexibus and other routes during a 16 hours period

Variation of demand during the day

60%

86%

100%

88%

68%

58%52% 53% 56% 55% 55%

59%63%

75%82%

89%

63%

39%

56% 57%

50%

40%35%

32% 32% 33% 35% 34% 36% 38%43% 45% 47%

35%

21%

29%

43%39%

27%23%

19% 21% 23%20% 21% 22% 25%

32%37%

42%

28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

Variación de la Demanda en la cuenca del Mexibús III

Pas-Total Pas-Remanente Pas-Mexibús

The expansion factor is 7.3During am peak hour (7-8), 14% of daily demand is servicedDuring pm peak (20-21), 2% of the daily demand is servicedDuring 6 and 9, 38% of the demand is servicedDuring 18 and 21,, more than 34% of the demand is servicedIn 6 hours (from a total of 17 hours of operations), almost a 73% of the demand is serviced

Frequency and Occupancy

Demand serviced by Mexibus and others

The current fleet in operation has 52 buses, 4 reserve and a maximum frequency of 35 vph in 4 services

No. Ubicación Sentido Remanente Mexibús Total % Mexibús Remanente Mexibús Total % Mexibús1 Av. Del Peñon y Av. Patos N-S 8,674 13,945 22,619 62% 693 2,456 3,149 78%

Av. Del Peñon y Av. Patos S-N 6,894 14,969 21,863 68% 578 2,483 3,061 81%2 Av. Del Peñon y Calle Quetzalli N-S 25,265 18,877 44,142 43% 3,180 3,802 6,982 54%

Av. Del Peñon y Calle Quetzalli S-N 26,538 28,228 54,766 52% 3,541 4,074 7,615 53%3 Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Del Peñon O-P 15,675 15,675 -

Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Del Peñon P-O 15,730 15,730 - 4 Av. De las Torres y Bordo de Xochiaca N-S 16,841 16,841 -

Av. De las Torres y Bordo de Xochiaca S-N 20,948 20,948 - 5 Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Vicente Villada O-P 57,182 22,948 80,130 29% 13,637 3,938 17,575 22%

Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Vicente Villada P-O 53,817 20,480 74,297 28% 8,265 3,395 11,660 29%6 4a Av. (Rayito de Sol) - Av. Vicente Villada O-P 11,127 11,127 -

4a Av. (Rayito de Sol) - Av. Vicente Villada P-O 10,216 10,216 - 7 Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Cuauhtémoc O-P 81,185 81,185 -

Bordo de Xochiaca y Av. Cuauhtémoc P-O 82,422 82,422 - 8 Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Vicente Villada O-P 39,322 20,409 59,731 34% 5,101 4,205 9,306 45%

Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Vicente Villada P-O 39,019 20,741 59,760 35% 4,110 4,310 8,420 51%9 Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Cuauhtémoc O-P 26,694 29,916 56,610 53% 4,359 4,790 9,149 52%

Av. Chimalhuacán - Av. Cuauhtémoc P-O 27,596 26,451 54,047 49% 3,877 4,267 8,144 52%10 Av. Pantitlán - Adolfo López Mateos O-P 35,284 35,284 -

Av. Pantitlán - Adolfo López Mateos P-O 29,476 29,476 -

Periodo 16 horas Periodo Hora de Máxima demanda

Tramo crítico

Total frequencies along the day for the 4 services

52 buses in operation4 reserve

56 total fleet

Ascensos y descensos

Average profile for local service bus

Service at capacity during peak.Renovation index in the west bound: 1.34Average trip distance: 13.4 km.Maximum load: 136 passengersDirection: 84% westbound

Express service 1

Service saturated during peak.Renovation index westbound: 1.44Average trip distance: 12.5 km.Maximum load per bus: 158 pasajerosDirection: 89% westbound

Express service 2

Service at capacityRenovation index westbound: 1.11Average trip distance: 16.2 km.Maximum load: 143 passengersDirection: 85% westbound

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No. de Parada

Auditoría Integral, del Sistema de Transporte Masivo Mexibus III Chimalhuacán-Nezahualcóyotl-PantitlánPolígono de Carga Ruta: (Periodo pico de la mañana)

Ascensos Descensos A bordo

Sentido 1

Sentido 2

Ruta Express 2 - Mexibús

Mexibus Remanentes

Current operation

Operation program for each service

ServicioVueltas en día laboral

Ordinario 217Expreso 1 85Expreso 2 113Rosa 16

Current operation and capacity

At 90% load, the system offers 5,040 places at peak frequency

Demand / capacity, current

Current Capacity of Mexibús III

SITUACIÓN ACTUAL

No. NombreFrecuencia

actual (veh/hr)Demanda atendida

(90%-144pas)Demanda atendida

(95%-152pas)Demanda atendida

(100%-160pas)

Demanda observada

(HMD)

Tiempo ciclo

Mexibus

(min)

Vel.

Comercial

(Km/hr)

Flota Operativa

(veh)

1 Ruta Mexibús - Ordinaria 13 1,872 1,976 2,080 1,772 104 20.7 23

2 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 2 10 1,440 1,520 1,600 1,430 84 25.6 14

3 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 1 8 1,152 1,216 1,280 1,270 84 24.1 11

4 Ruta Mexibús - Mujeres 4 576 608 640 318 104 20.7 4

35 5040 5320 5600 4790 376 91 52

95% 90% 86%

Mejoras en tiempo de ciclo (10%), incremento de velocidad, reducción de flota en operación

No. NombreFrecuencia

actual (veh/hr)Demanda atendida

(90%-144pas)Demanda atendida

(95%-152pas)Demanda atendida

(100%-160pas)

Demanda observada

(HMD)

Tiempo ciclo

Mexibus

(min)

Vel.

Comercial

(Km/hr)

Flota Operativa

(veh)

1 Ruta Mexibús - Ordinaria 13 1,872 1,976 2,080 1,772 93.6 23.0 21

2 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 2 10 1,440 1,520 1,600 1,430 75.6 28.5 13

3 Ruta Mexibús - Expres 1 8 1,152 1,216 1,280 1,270 75.6 26.8 10

4 Ruta Mexibús - Mujeres 4 576 608 640 318 104 20.7 4

35 48

Capacidad del Sistema Actual

Approaching Pantitlán Terminal

Financial aspects

Original financial model of the infrastructure concessionaire:• Total investment: 540 millions of pesos, 82% during the first

year, investments for 5 years• Projected Demand: 205 thousand passengers per day• Fare: 7 pesos• Concession period: 25 years• Revenue as a % of fare collection: 23.7%• Other revenue (advertising, etc.): 1,725,000 pesos 7 year,

during the first year• Operating costs: 58 + million pesos yearly• Demand growth rate:1% anualNet present value: 627.9 millions pesos

Sensibility analysis of concessionaire original financial model:• Demand: between 70 and 140 thousand per day• Fare: 6 pesos

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Valor presente neto

Financial aspects prior to implementation

Current financial situation

Revenue and expenses during a typical day:• Demand: 70 thousand passengers• Fare: 6 pesos• Current operation

ServicioVueltas en día laboral

DistanciaKm.

DiariosCosto por

Km.

Egreso Total Pago

de flota

Ingreso total por

tarifa

Ingreso - Egreso

Ordinario 217 35.9 7790.3 29 225918.7Expreso 1 85 35.9 3051.5 29 88493.5Expreso 2 113 33.8 3819.4 29 110762.6

Rosa 16 35.9 574.4 29 16657.6Totales 431 15235.6 441832.4 420000 -21832.4

420000 -21832.4

The service plan must change, no money is left to pay other concessionaires.

Financial aspects prior to implementation

Financial model of the fleet operator:4 Demand Scenarios

Financial model of the fleet operator:• A table for each alternative• One local service and 3 express services• Assumption: Critical volume approximately the sum of the critical volume of

each service

Financial aspects prior to implementation

Analysis of demand assumptions in the original business plan of the fleet operator:• Characteristics of current demanden base demanda actual:• 14% of demand takes place in the peak hour• Renovation index in the westbound direction between 1.11 and 1.44• Average trip length westbound: between 12.5 and 16.2 km.• Direction: between 84 and 89% westbound, average 86%

Opción Demanda

diariaDemanda hora pico

Demanda hora pico sentido

Pantitlán

Demanda tramo crítico

Indice de rotación sentido

Pantitlán

Distancia promedio sentido

Pantitlán1 90,000 12,600 10,836 3,345 3.2 5.62 142,000 19,880 17,097 5,306 3.2 5.63 165,000 23,100 19,866 7,690 2.6 7.04 206,000 28,840 24,802 9,612 2.6 7.0

There is a large difference between demand assumptions of the business plan and current demand

Errors in inancial aspects prior to implementation

Recommendations

Functional design and operation:• A new service plan:

• Trunk services long and short, local, semi express - limited and express services

• Direct services

• Delay solutions at Pantitlán terminal• Negotiations with other operators

New service plan

Local, limited and express services

67

Direct services

Direct services with buses with doors on both sides:• Auxiliar Peñon – Bordo• Auxiliar Chimalhuacán

31

Delay at terminal

Alternative 1:

Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III

Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán de Mexibús III

Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III

Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco

Alternative 2:

• Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III• Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán

de Mexibús III • Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III

Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco

Delay at terminal

Route restructuring and negotiations

Feeder system design and negotiations