building climate resilience by...

2 0 1 6 - 2 0 1 7 A N N U A L R E P O R T

Western Water AssessmentBuilding Climate Resilience by Design

TableofContentsIntroduction...........................................................................................................................1

WWAStaff.......................................................................................................................................2ResearchTeam................................................................................................................................3NewAreasofFocus.........................................................................................................................4NewClimateServices.......................................................................................................................4

SustainedClimateAssessmentintheU.S.Southwest.............................................................5

WWAEvaluation....................................................................................................................6

WWAImpact..........................................................................................................................7

ContributionstoNIDISDroughtEarlyWarningSystems..........................................................7

WWA2016-2017ProgramHighlights......................................................................................9MajorResearchFindingsandPublications.......................................................................................9SelectedOutreachActivities..........................................................................................................11

WWA2016-2017ProjectReports..........................................................................................13

APPENDIXA:Listof2016-2017WWAPublications................................................................19

APPENDIXB:WWAAppearancesinMedia...........................................................................21

PrincipalInvestigatorLisaDilling,UniversityofColoradoBoulder

Co-InvestigatorsJosephBarsugli,UniversityofColoradoBoulderElizabethMcNie,UniversityofColoradoBoulderNoahMolotch,UniversityofColoradoBoulderWilliamTravis,UniversityofColoradoBoulder

Performanceperiodcoveredinthisreport:June1,2016–May31,2017.

Coverphotograph:JeffLukas,MedanoCreekatGreatSandDunesNationalPark

2016-2017AnnualReport

1

Introduction

ThemissionofWesternWaterAssessment(WWA)istoconductinnovativeresearchinpartnershipwithdecisionmakersintheRockyMountainWest,helpingthemmakethebestuseofsciencetomanageforclimateimpacts.Usingmultidisciplinaryteamsofexpertsinclimate,hydrology,ecologyandpolicy,WWAworkswithdecisionmakersacrossColorado,UtahandWyomingtoproducepolicy-relevantinformationaboutclimatevariabilityandchange.Bybuildingrelationshipswithandnetworksofdecisionmakers,ourteamisabletodeveloppracticalresearchprogramsandusefulinformationproducts.WWAfocusesitsworkonfouroverarchingthemes.

1. ClimateVulnerabilityandAdaptiveCapacityintheWWARegion2. ExtremesandClimateRiskManagement3. DesigningOrganizationsandNetworksforUsableScience4. UnderstandingandMonitoringDroughtintheWWARegion

WWAisformallypartoftheCooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences(CIRES)attheUniversityofColoradoBoulder(CUBoulder),andourresearchersandpartnerscomefromuniversitiesandgovernmentinstitutionsacrossourregion.

WWAStaffandResearchTeam

WWAiscomprisedofacorestaffofsix(Table1)whofocusonprogrammanagement,researchdevelopmentandsynthesis,andcoordinationofstakeholderinteractions.Duringthispastyear,WWAhiredaclimateassessmentspecialist,BenétDuncantoworkonthesustainedassessmentproject.Inadditiontothecorestaffshownbelow,WWA’sgraphicdesign/outreachspecialist(AmiNacu-Schmidt)issharedwiththeCenterforScienceandTechnologyPolicyResearch(CSTPR)atCUBoulderinordertoincreaseefficiencyandleverageresources.

Table1.WesternWaterAssessmentCoreStaff

Staff Title EmailAddress Expertise

LisaDilling Director [email protected] Climateinformation,decisionmaking

UrsulaRick ProgramManager [email protected] Sciencepolicy,glacialhydrology

ElizabethMcNie

ResearchScientist [email protected] Sciencepolicy,programevaluation

JeffLukas ResearchIntegrationSpecialist,ColoradoandWyoming

[email protected] Climatevariabilityandclimatechange,paleoclimatology

SethArens ResearchIntegrationSpecialist,Utah

[email protected] Eco-hydrology,airquality

BenétDuncan ClimateAssessmentSpecialist mailto:[email protected] Climateindicators,oceanography


2

WWA’sresearchteam(Table2)includesphysicalscientistsandsocialscientistsattheUniversityofColorado,NOAAandtheNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR).

Table2.WesternWaterAssessmentResearchTeam

TeamMember Title Expertise

Averyt,Kristen AssociateDirectorforScience,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado

Climatology,energy-water,assessmentprocesses

Barsugli,Joseph LeadResearcher,WesternWaterAssessmentResearchScientist,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado

Climatedynamics

Berggren,John GraduateResearchAssistant,Univ.ofColorado Climateadaptation,waterpolicy

Clifford,Katie GraduateResearchAssistant,Univ.ofColorado Conservationdecisionmaking

Deems,Jeff ResearchScientist,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Climateandsnowmodeling

Henderson,Jen CIRESPostdoctoralFellow Weatherandsociety

Jennings,Keith GraduateResearchAssistant,Univ.ofColorado Snowpackremotesensing

Kaspryzk,Joseph AssistantProfessor,CivilEngineering,Univ.ofColorado Multi-objectiveanalysisforwatermanagement

Klein,Roberta ManagingDirector,CenterforScienceandTechnologyPolicyResearch,Univ.ofColorado

Environmentalpolicy

Livneh,Ben AssistantProfessor,CivilEngineering,Univ.ofColorado Hydrologicmodeling

Mahoney,Kelly ResearchScientist,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision Hydrometeorology,extremeprecipitation

McCurdy,Adam GraduateResearchAssistant,Univ.ofColorado Climateriskassessment

Molotch,Noah LeadResearcher,WesternWaterAssessment

AssistantProfessor,Dept.ofGeography,Univ.ofColorado

Snowhydrology

Morss,Rebecca ScientistIII,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch Socioeconomicandpolicyimpactsofweather

Page,Rebecca GraduateResearchAssistant,Univ.ofColorado Decisionsinnaturalresources

Rangwala,Imtiaz ResearchScientist,CIRES,Univ.ofColoradoandNOAAESRL Regionalclimatechange,highelevationclimate

Ray,Andrea Scientist,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision Climate-societyinteractions,watermanagement

Shrum,Trisha WWAandEarthLabPost-DoctoralFellow Naturalresourceeconomics

Smith,Rebecca GraduateResearchAssistant,Univ.ofColorado Multi-objectiveanalysisforwatermanagement

Travis,William InterimDirector,LeadResearcher,WesternWaterAssessment

AssociateProfessor,Geography,Univ.ofColorado

Naturalhazards,climateimpactsandadaptation

Wessman,Carol Professor,EcologyandEvolutionaryBiology,Univ.ofColorado Landscapeecology,remotesensing

Wilhelmi,Olga ProjectScientistIII,NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch Vulnerabilityandadaptationtoweatherandclimate

Wolter,Klaus ResearchScientist,CIRES,Univ.ofColoradoandNOAAESRL Climatologyandmeteorology

Yocum,Heather ResearchScientist,CIRES,NOAAESRL Climate&socialsystems


3

NewAreasofFocus

WWAwasawardedaSustainedAssessmentProjectbytheNOAAClimateProgramandAssessmentProgramOfficestosupplementourmaingranttoworkonsustainedclimateassessmentfortheU.S.Southwest.ThiswillbeanewfocusforWWAandrequiredustoshapeapositiontobestcontributetoanationalsustainedclimateassessmentoverthetwoyearsofthisproject.Wewillfocusonmakingconnectionsbetweenexistingassessmentactivitiesandcompilinglessonslearnedfromcasestudiesofsuccessfulclimateassessments.Wearealsoexpandinggeographicallyandmovingtomoreruralwork.OneprojectinPueblo,COlooksatdroughtimpactsacrosstherural/urbaninterface,andinsouthwestUtah,weareintroducingclimateinformationtoaruralplanninggroup.Finally,wearepursuingnewpartnershipswiththoseinterestedinusablescienceacrossCUBoulder.

Table3.Newpartnershipsandareasoffocusdevelopedin2016-2017.

NewAreaofFocus RelevantProjects(seepp.6andXX)SustainedClimateAssessmentintheSouthwestDroughtattheRural/UrbanInterface

• SustainedClimateAssessmentSummary(cross-RISA)• DroughtExperienceinPueblo,CO• RanchingDroughtInsuranceProject

NewPartnerships RelevantProjects(seepp.XX-XX)EarthLab,UniversityofColoradoWestZionCorridorRegionalPlanningPartnership

• UsableScienceattheUniversityofColoradoBoulder• ClimateInformationforaRuralNationalParkGatewayCommunity

NewClimateServicesandStakeholderProducts

ForestResilienceandClimateChangefortheColoradoStateForestService:InOctober2016,theColoradoStateForestService(CSFS)madeliveanewwebpage,titled"Colorado’sForestsinaChangingClimate",tocommunicatetotheirstakeholders--mainlyforestlandownersinColorado--abouttherisksposedbyclimatechangeandstepstheycantaketopromoteforestresiliencetoclimatechange.Thetechnicalbackgroundonclimatechangecamemainlyfromthe2014WWAreport,"ClimateChangeinColorado",andWWA'sJeffLukasreviewedthedraftpagecontentforaccuracy.JeffwastheninvitedtotheCSFSannualconferenceinFebruary2017,tobriefCSFSstaffonrecentclimateandecologicaltrends,thelatestresearchontheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangetoColorado'sforests,andclimateadaptationstrategiesforforestmanagers.

FutureOutdoorWaterUseinJordanValley,Utah:TheJordanValleyWaterConservancyDistrict(JVWCD)isconcernedaboutfutureoutdoorwateruseinachangingclimate.WWA’sSethArensprovidedprojectionsofpotentialevapotranspiration(PET),pasttrendsinPET,andamodelofobservedPETandcurrentoutdoorwaterusetohelpJVWCDunderstandhowwaterdemandmaychangeinthefuture.ThismodelwasthenusedtopredictfutureoutdoorwateruseinJordanValley’sserviceareabasedonprojectionsoffuturePETwithchangingclimate.ClimateServiceProvidersDatabase:InpartnershipwithCLIMASandtheNOAAWesternRegionalClimateCenter,WWA’sElizabethMcNieandJohnBerggrendidanassessmentofmorethan130publicsectorandnonprofitorganizationsthatprovideclimateservicestoelevenwesternstates.TheNOAAWesternRegionClimateServiceProvidersDatabaseisasearchabledirectoryofclimateserviceprovidersinthewestthatmakesclimateserviceseasiertofind.Apreliminaryanalysisreportclassifiestheserviceproviders,givesthesectorsandregionsserved,andidentifiestopicalandgeographicgaps.


4

SustainedClimateAssessmentfortheU.S.Southwest InJanuary2017,WWAlaunchedanewproject:SustainedClimateAssessmentintheSouthwest.ThisprojectisledbyBenétDuncan,WWA’snewClimateAssessmentSpecialist.WWAiscollaboratingwithCLIMASandCNAPtoinvestigateopportunitiesforsustainedassessmentintheUSSouthwestNationalClimateAssessment(NCA)region–anareathatincludesArizona,California,Colorado,Nevada,NewMexico,andUtah–andtodevelopaprocessforsustainedassessmentintheregion.Theprojectisdrawingonbroadexistingcapacityforclimateassessmentinthesouthwestwiththegoalofconnectingclimateserviceprovidersanduserstoincreaseaccesstoinformationandunderstandingofclimateimpactsindecision-makingcontexts.ItstemsfromrecommendationsmadeintheThirdNCAreport.WWAisfocusingonfourkeysectors:water,oceansandcoasts,agriculture,andtransportation.Thesesectorswerechosenbecausetheyrepresentarangeofexistingassessmentcapacityintheregionandbecauseoftheirrelativelylargefootprintintheregion.Recommendationsforanongoingassessmentprocessmayvarybysector–areflectionofthecapacityandopportunityassociatedwitheach.

Duringthisreportingperiod,WWAestablishedaninformaladvisorygroupthatincludescorepartnersatCLIMASandCNAP,membersoftheFederalAdvisoryCommitteeonsustainedclimateassessmentandleadingthinkersinsustainedassessment,connectedwithleadersandauthorsfortheFourthNCA(currentlyindevelopment),andbuiltnewrelationshipswithexpertsinclimateassessmentfromeachofthefocalsectors.BenéttraveledthroughouttheSouthwestregiontothefollowingmeetingsandconferencestolearnaboutcurrentassessmentactivities,andshewasanorganizerforthesustainedassessmentpre-meetingforumatthe2017NationalAdaptationForum.

• February2017:Tucson,AZforNationalClimateAssessment(NCA)Southwest(SW)TownHallandNCASWAuthorMeeting

• March2017:Tucson,AZforWaterResourcesResearchCenter(WRRC)AnnualConference:IrrigatedAgricultureinArizonaandColoradoWaterInstituteWorkshop:AlternativestoPermanentFallowingofAgriculturalLand

• April2017:PaloAlto,Davis,andSacramento,CAformeetingsandReno,NVforGreatBasinClimateForum

• May2017:St.Paul,MNforNationalAdaptationForumInthecomingmonths,WWAwillcollaboratewithclimateserviceprovidersanduserstoidentifykeyelementsofanongoingclimateassessmentprocessfortheregion.Thiswillincludedevelopmentofcasestudiesthathighlightparticularlyuseful/successfulassessmentactivities.WWAstaffalsoparticipatedinthe4thNationalClimateAssessmentsatellitestakeholdermeetingsfortheSouthwestRegioninBoulder,COonFebruary21standfortheNorthCentralRegioninFt.Collins,COonFebruary2nd.


5

WWAEvaluationWWAiscontinuingtocombinewhatitiscallingtheMeadow-WallFramework,whichgivesproject-levelevaluationofco-production,andtheWWAframeworkthatusescustomizedmetricstoevaluateWWA.MuchofWWA’sworkconsistsofongoingactivities,relationshipbuildingandmaintenance,education,andoutreach,inadditiontodiscreteresearchprojects.Whilefocusedonoutputsandoutcomes,theMeadow-WallandWWAframeworksarealsowell-suitedforevaluatingthebuildingandmaintainingofsocialcapital,thequalityofstakeholderandresearcherrelationships,andnetworkparticipation.WWAalsoadministeredtotheresearchteama‘TypologyofResearch’.Thisassessmentservedtoidentifyandcharacterizetheoverallprofileofvariousresearchprojectsandtoinformdiscussionanddeliberationabouttheresearchinordertoevaluatehoweachprojectwasorwasnotmeetingitsstatedgoals.Thisyear,WWAdevelopedastakeholdertrackingformthattrackedourinteractionwithstakeholdersforasix-monthperiodinordertounderstandhowweinteractwithourpartnersandusers,whetherweareformingnewrelationships,howoftenweareaskedforinformationvs.reachingouttoourstakeholders,etc.Thisinitialsix-monthperiodofdatawillbeusedasabaselinefromwhichtomeasurechangesattheendofthisrebidperiod,andisexperimentalinthatouranalysisofthetrackingdatawillshowwhatkeyinformationmayhavebeenmissedandwhatinformationaboutourstakeholderinteractionisnotneeded.ThestakeholdertrackingformwasfilledoutbysixWWAteammemberswhowereaskedtotrackallinteractionstheyhadwithstakeholders,includingotherresearchers,potentialusersofWWAinformation,othercollaboratorsaswellasthegeneralpublic.Theformtracked:

• Whoinitiatedcontact• Modeofcontact(email,inperson,phone)• Affiliationofstakeholder• Sector(government,academia,public)• Purposeofcontact(planning,policy

development,generalunderstanding,education/communication/outreach,operations,research

• Durationofcontact• Whetherthesubjectrelatedtoanofficial

WWAprojectWWAtracked243contactsand282hoursofcontacttime.Themostfrequentlycitedpurposesforengagementincludedmeeting/training/classplanning,projectmeetings,workshops,andconversationsaboutcollaborationorpotentialcollaboration.79%ofcontactswererepeatsand21%werenewcontacts.WWAandourstakeholdersinitiatedcontactatanalmostequalpace.Themostcommonsectorrepresentedwasgovernmentwith52%,followedbyacademia(34%),private(11%),andNGO(3%).41%ofthecontactswereforresearchpurposes,28%planningpurposes,22%communicationandoutreach,7%policyand2%wasforgeneralunderstanding.


6

WWAImpactAcrosstheRegionWWAhashadbroadimpactacrossColorado,WyomingandUtahthroughvariouseffortssuchasworkshops,webinars,decisiontoolsandourclimatedashboard.Weconvenedaday-longsymposiumforourpartners,stakeholdersandotherCUBoulderresearchers,whichdrewover50attendeesfromacrossourregionandthroughoutCUBoulder.Fromthesymposium,welearnedhowtheincorporationofclimateinformationischangingwithinourstakeholders’organizationsandhowwemightbetterpartnerswiththemtoproduceusefulinformation.WealsolearnedaboutongoingresearchwithinCUBoulderthatmightbeusefultoourstakeholdersandtheresearchgroupswithwhichwecancollaborate.OneexampleofWWA’seffortstobuildexpertiseinclimateadaptationwasinaproject,supportedpartiallybytheNOAASectoralApplicationsResearchProgram,ontheuseofMulti-ObjectiveEvolutionaryAlgorithm(MOEA)-assistedoptimizationsfordecision-makingundersevereclimateuncertainty.WeheldaworkshoponJune30,2016fornineColoradowaterutilitiestogivethemhands-onexperiencewithuseofaMOEAtoolcustomizedfortheColoradoFrontRangewatersystem.Thiseffortallowedresearcherstounderstandhowwatermanagersrelatetradeoffinformationtotheircurrentneedsandpractices,getfeedbackaboutpotentialusesandbarrierstouse,provideexposurefortheemergingtool,andlearnaboutthegeneralprocessofutilitiesadoptinganewtool.Themanagersvaluedtheabilitytounderstandhowperformanceinsomeobjectivesaffectedperformanceinothers,andeventhoughsomeobjectiveswereprioritized,therelationshipsbetweenthemprovidedvaluableinsight.Theycitedrelevantuses,suchasdemonstratingtocustomershowmuchservicetheywouldhavetoforegoinordertoavoidunpopularinfrastructure.Thedesiretounderstandhowoneormoredecisionsmappedtooverallsystemperformancewasaprevalenttheme.WhileenthusiasticaboutthepotentialforMOEA-assistedoptimizationonatechnicallevel,managersnotedthattransmittingthetechnicalfindingstoanon-technicalboardofdirectorsorcitycouncilwouldbeasignificantchallenge.Finally,theyreportedthattheworkshopwasamoreeffectivewaytolearnaboutcomplexresearchtoolsthanreadingreportsorarticles,andthat,alongwithworkshops,consultants,casestudies,andinnovativeneighboringutilitieswereallfactorsthatcouldleadtotheadoptionofnewtools.WWAresearcherscontinuetointerpretongoingweathereventsandclimateconditionsthroughourwebsite,dashboards,andmanyindividualrequests.ExamplesincludeupdatingourIntermountainWestClimateDashboardtobetterintegrateintotheNIDISIntermountainWestDroughtEarlyWarningSystem(IMWDEWS),providinghistoricMODISsatellitesnowpackdatatotheStateofWyoming,andwecontinuetoproducebimonthlybriefingsfortheColoradoWaterAvailabilityTaskForcemeetingsaboutthestateoftheclimatesystemandmoistureanomaliesanticipatedfortheupcomingseason.

ContributionstotheNIDISIntermountainWestDEWS Duringthisreportingperiod,WWAcontributedtotheIntermountainWestDroughtEarlyWarningSystem(IMWDEWS)throughseveralactivities.WWA’sJeffLukas,ElizabethMcNieandSethArenshelpedplanandfacilitatetwomeetingsofthenewlyexpandedIMWDEWSthatnowincludesArizonaandwesternNewMexico,oneinTucson,AZinSeptember2016andoneinDenver,COinOctober2016.TheseDroughtandClimateOutlooksprovidedanopportunityforNIDIStointroducethenewIMWDEWSandtohearfromstakeholdersabouttheirneedsfordroughtinformation.InNovember2016,


7

WWAalsohelpedconveneameetingofstrategicpartnersintheIMWDEWStobegintheprocessofintegratingthemanysourcesofdroughtinformationalreadyavailableacrosstheIMWDEWSregion.

InpartnershipwithCLIMAS,WWA’sJeffLukasupdatedtheWWAIntermountainWestClimateDashboardtobetterintegrateitintotheIMWDEWSsystem.WiththeadditionofAZandwesternNMtotheUpperColoradoRiverBasinDEWStoformtheIMWDEWS,weaddedAZandNMtothedashboarddatapreviouslyprovidedforCO,UTandWY.WealsoincorporateinformationfromCLIMASinourmonthlywrittensummaryandaddedCLIMAS’reservoirmapsfortheColoradoRiverBasin.Finally,thedashboardnowincludesmoreprominentlinksandconnectionstotheColoradoClimateCenter,NIDISandCLIMASresources.

SethArenscontinuedtoworkwiththeJordanValleyWaterConservancyDistrict(JVWCD)inUtahonfutureoutdoorwateruse.Thisprojectprovidedprojectionsofpotentialevapotranspiration(PET),andpasttrendsinPETanditscomponentstohelpJVWCDunderstandhowwaterdemandmaychangeinthefuture.Usingdownscaledclimatedata,pasttrendsinPET,andprojectionsoffutureoutdoorwateringseasonlength,amodelofobservedPETandoutdoorwaterusewasdeveloped.ThismodelwasthenusedtopredictfutureoutdoorwaterusebasedonprojectionsoffuturePET.AreportonthisprojectwaspresentedtoJVWCDinApril2017.

AspartofWWA’sresearchontheimpactsofchangingsnowpackonstreamflow,JohnBerggreninterviewedseveralwatermanagersintheUncompahgreBasininwesternColoradotounderstandtheirkeyconcernsandpasteventsastheyrelatetoinformationaboutsnowpack.Ingeneral,dryyearsareofmoreconcernthanwetyearstothewatermanagersinterviewed,andtimingofsnowmeltandrunoffarecriticalinverydryyears.KeithJenningsfocusedoncomparingexistingsnowproductsintheUncompahgreBasin.ThelargespatialscaleofNLDAS-2gridcellsmadethesnowproductunsuitableforuse.Only8gridcellscompletelyorpartiallyoverlappedtheUncompahgreRiverBasinandtheyoftenshowedsnow-freeconditionswhensnowwasstillreportedattwoSNOTELsites.Similarly,theSNODASSWEproductperformedpoorlyrelativetoASOdata,typicallyoverestimatingsubalpineSWEwhilesignificantlyunderestimatingalpineSWE.WehavealsotakeninitialstepstowardsmodelingSWEintheUncompahgreusingtheDistributedHydrologyVegetationSoilModel.ThetwogoalsofthismodelingeffortaretoreproduceSWEvolumesanddistributionsrelativetoASOdataandtosimulatedifficultwaterresourcemanagementscenariosasreportedintheusersurveysperformedbyJohnBerggren.

InSpringof2017,WWAheldtwowebinarsondrought,oneontheuseofEDDI,EvaporativeDemandDroughtIndex(EDDI):Trackingthe“AtmosphericDemand”SideofDroughtforMonitoringandEarlyWarning,andoneonanewranchingdroughtinsurancetool,DecisionMakingintheFaceofDroughtbyWesternRangeLivestockProducers.ImtiazRangwalaandJeffLukaspresentedto~50participantsonthephysicalbasisbehindEDDI,howitcomparestootherdroughtindicesandpossibleusesofEDDI,includinganemphasisonflashdrought.Inthesecond,WilliamTravisandTrishaShrumpresentedto~20participantsontheirnewranchinginsurancetool,whichallowsuserstoexperimentwiththeeconomicsofpurchasingtherelativelynewUSDAPasture,ForageandRangelandInsuranceproduct,whichpaysoutbasedonNOAA’sgriddedprecipitation.Theypresentedanonlineexperimentoffiveyearsofrainfallandinsurancepurchaseswithvariousoptionsforadaptingtodrought.


8

WWA2016-2017ProgramHighlights

MajorResearchFindingsandPublications

LocalClimateAdaptationinColorado,UtahandWyomingCities,ratherthanstateorfederalgovernments,areoftenthefirsttotakeactiontodealwithnaturalhazardsandclimatechange.WWA’sLisaDillingandJohnBerggrenpublishedapaperentitled“Driversofadaptation:Responsestoweather-andclimate-relatedhazardsin60localgovernmentsintheIntermountainWesternU.S.”toexplorethekindsofactionsthesecitiesaretakingandwhy. Overthecourseoftwoyears,theytalkedtocitymanagers,emergencymanagersandatleastoneelectedofficialineachcitytofindoutwhateachplaceisdoingtohandleexistingweatherandclimatehazards.Insixofthecities,theteamdugdeeper,talkingindepthtoasmanyas10additionalmunicipalemployeesandmanagersinvolvedinhazardplanningandresponse.Responsestohazardsvary,andtheresearchersfoundseveralkeyelementsthatareinfluentialinthedevelopmentofhazardresponseplans,including:

• whetheratownorcityhadpreviouslyexperiencedanaturalhazardevent, • whetheracitythoughttheyfacedpotentialriskofexperiencinganevent, • whetherthecityhada“champion”—anindividualwhowasreallypushingforhazardplanning

andresponse,and • whetheracityreceivedexternalincentives,suchasfundingorregulations.

Noonevariabledriveswhatcitiesdo,butthecombinationofafewdifferentvariablesseemstogetcitiestotakemoreaction.Ofthose,thepresenceofexternalfundingorexternalregulationsstoodoutasthemostsignificantvariableinpredictingwhetheracitywouldimplementplanstodealwithclimatehazards.

v Dilling,L.,E.Pizzi,J.Berggren,A.Ravikumar,andK.Andersson(2017).Driversofadaptation:Responsestoweather-andclimate-relatedhazardsin60localgovernmentsintheIntermountainWesternU.S.,EnvironmentandPlanningA,1-21,doi:10.1177/0308518X16688686.

StormwaterInfrastructureUpgradesinaChangingClimateWWAresearchersWilliamTravisandAdamMcCurdyexploredhowandwhenstormwaterinfrastructureshouldbereplacedgivenprojectedchangesinfloodingandextremeprecipitationevents.Fouradaptationstrategies,nominal(nochange),anticipatory(replaceandincreasecapacityofallculvertsbeforeendoflife),concurrent(increasecapacityatendoflifereplacement)andreactive(replaceandincreasecapacityafterdamage),weremodeledforactualculvertemplacementsinColoradotoexaminetheeffectofadaptationstrategyandculvertcharacteristicsoncostefficiencyandservicelevelundervaryingratesofclimatechange.Foradistributedsystemofinfrastructureunitslikeculverts,knowingmoreaboutexistingcharacteristicscanimprovetheefficacyofadaptationstrategiesmorethanbetterprojectionsofclimatechange.Transportationdepartmentschoosingclimateadaptationstrategiesoftenlackdetaileddataonculverts,andgatheringthatdatacouldimprovetheefficiencyofadaptationdespiteclimateuncertainty.Inparticular,anticipatoryadaptationperformedpoorlyasevaluatedbybothcostandlevelofservice.Thiswascausedbytheincreasednumberofreplacementsthatsacrificedthevalueofthestructurespriortotheendoftheirusefullife.Many


9

transportationagencieswouldneedadditionaldatacollectiontolearnthespecificcharacteristicsoftheirculverts;however,theadditionalcostofgettingsuchinformationmayeliminatebenefitsgainedbyusingittochooseappropriateadaptationstrategies.

v McCurdy,A.D.andW.R.Travis(2017).Simulatedclimateadaptationinstormwatersystems:Evaluatingtheefficiencyofadaptationstrategies.EnvironmentSystemsandDecisions,1-16,February13,doi:10.1007/s10669-017-9631-z.

ImprovedSpatialSnowpackDataforStreamflowForecastingAccuratemeasurementofspringtimesnow-waterequivalent(SWE)iscriticalforwatermanagersandwaterusers,includingagriculturalproducers,inColorado,UtahandWyoming.CurrentwatersupplyforecastingtechniquescommonlyusearegressionbetweenhistoricalrunoffandSWEmeasuredatNRCSSNOTELsitesandsnowcourses,butincreasingstreamflowvariabilityhasreducedtheabilityofcommonregressionanalysesbasedonsuchpointmeasurementsofSWEtoforecastrunoff.Theadditionofspatially-explicitestimatesofSWEusingremotely-senseddatacanimprovetheseforecasts.NoahMolotchandDominickSchnieiderestimatedthehistoricspatialdistributionofweeklySWEfortheUpperColoradoRiverbasinfromJanuarytoJune,from2001–2012,usingboththein-situSNOTELdataandMODISsatellitemeasurementsofsnowextent.Notableimprovementswereobservedinalpineterrainwiththeinclusionofspatialsnowmeasurements.Onaverage,theyfound31%greaterSWEdepthinareasabove3000melevation;thesehigh-elevationareascontributeupto66%ofthetotalannualSWEvolumeinthedriestyear.Theyalsofoundthatobservationsofsnow-coverdepletionfrompreviousyearsprovideimportantinformationforestimatingSWEinrealtime.ThisresearchextendsSWEreconstructionstoreal-timeapplicationsandillustratesthatdoingsosignificantlyimprovestheaccuracyofSWEestimates.

v Schneider,D.andN.P.Molotch,(2016).Real-timeestimationofsnowwaterequivalentintheUpperColoradoRiverBasinusingMODIS-basedSWEreconstructionsandSNOTELdata.WaterResourcesResearch,52(10):7892-7910.DOI:10.1002/2016WR019067-9916

ClimateInformationUseinDroughtPlanningHistorically,droughthasbeenrespondedtoratherthanpreparedfor,yetstudieshaveillustratedthatproactiveinvestmentindroughtriskmanagementreducesimpactsandoverallresponsecosts.Onekeyelementofpreparednessistheuseofsufficientclimateinformationformonitoring,forecasting,andtrackinglong-termtrends.Inthefaceofachangingclimateandincreasingvariability,thesetypesofdataareevenmorecriticalforplanningandoverallresiliency.Thesystematicuseofthesedatatoinformthedroughtplanningcomponentofdroughtriskmanagementisarelativelyrecentdevelopment.Actionablesciencehasdirectapplicabilityforplanninganddecision-making,andallowsforaniterativeprocessbetweenscientistsandendusersthatcanbuildlong-termdroughtresiliency.WWAresearcherJeffLukasworkedwithpartnersattheColoradoWaterConservationBoardandDepartmentofNaturalResourcestounderstandhowplannersareincreasinglyrelyingonclimatedata,rangingfrompaleoclimatologicalrecordstoexperimentalseasonalforecasts,toguidetheirlong-termdroughtpreparednessandclimatechangeadaptationefforts.Thisinformationcanthenbeusedtoinformbroaderpolicyandplanningefforts,unifyingthescientificbasisacrossmultipleprocesses.Data-


10

drivendecision-makingusingclimateinformationcanhelpdepoliticizeactionsandincreaseoverallresiliencyandresponseintimesofdrought,whichwillbeincreasinglyimportantastheworldwarms.

v Finnessey,T.,M.Hayes,J.LukasandM.Svaboda(2016)Usingclimateinformationfordroughtplanning.ClimateResearch,70,p.251-263,doi:10.3354/cr01406.

R2XintheRISANetworkThetransitionofresearchtooperations(R2O),applications(R2A)orcommercialization(R2C),knowncollectivelyasR2X,isakeygoalacrossNOAA.In2017,WWAsurveyedtheRISAnetworktolearnmoreaboutthefactorsthathelporhindertheprocessofR2Xwithinboththeresearchandrecipientorganizations.Accordingtothesurvey,mostRISAprogramsexplicitlyencourageresearchtransitionsanddedicateresourcesinsupportofthosetransitions.ThemostsuccessfulR2Xtransitionswereforplanning,improvewarnings(tornado,drought,fire,flood),forecastortooldevelopment,improveddrought/floodmonitoring,datainputformodels,improvingdecisionmaking,informingwaterandresourcemanagers,andinformingthebroaderoperationalsystem.Projectstendedtobesuccessfulwhentherewasbuy-infromtherecipientorganization,aneedwasfilled,therewasengagementwithusersoritsignificantlyadvancedunderstanding.R2Xtransitionstendtobeunsuccessfulwhenthereisalackofmanpowerandmonetaryresources,alackofplanning,andalackofsocialcapitalwiththerecipientorganization.

v Klein,R.andE.McNie(2017)ResearchTransitionsintheNOAARISAProgram.WesternWaterAssessmentReport.

SelectOutreachActivities

UsableScienceAcrossCUBoulderWWAwasawardedagranttoworkwithaUniversityofColoradoGrandChallengeprogram,EarthLab,toensuretheirresearchisconnectedtoColoradostakeholdersandtotrainpeopleacrosscampusintheproductionofusablescience.InAugust2016,WWAheldaUsableScience101workshoponwiththeEarthLabteam.LedbyElizabethMcNie,KatieCliffordandUrsulaRick,itcovereddefinitionsofusablescience,howitdiffersfromothermodesofdoingresearch,challengestoproducingit,theimportanceofbuildingrelationshipswithstakeholders,andsomekeycommunicationskills.ElizabeththenadministeredhertypologyofsciencewiththeEarthLabteamtogivethemathumbprintoftheirspecificresearchproject.TheteamdevelopedagraduatestudentseminarforSpring2017,whichtaughtthetheoryandpracticeofproducingusablesciencetoeightgraduatestudents.WWAwillconveneasecondworkshopinJune2017withEarthLab’swildfireteamandpotentialusersofphysicalandsocioeconomicfiredata.


11

ClimateChangeandDroughtPlanningfortheUSForestServiceJeffLukasandSethArenshavebeenaskedtoparticipateinseveralUSForestService(USFS)workshopsonclimatechangeanddrought.SethpresentedfutureclimateprojectionsattwoWasatchFrontworkshopsfortheIntermountainAdaptationPartnership,onefocusedontheWasatchandUintasub-regionandtheotheronthePlateausregionofcentralUtah.ThegoalofeachmeetingwastointroduceinformationaboutclimatechangeintheregionandtogatherUSFSresourcemanagerstobrainstormaboutpotentialclimateadaptationstrategies.InMarch2017,SethgaveapresentationfortheUSFSatadroughtworkshopinMarch2017inOgden,UT.InApril2017,JeffLukasparticipatedinaUSFSworkshopinSalida,CO,entitled"ClimateChangeandDrought:AdaptationintheRockyMountain

Region,"whichaimedtoprovideinformationandtoolsaboutdroughttoseveralnationalforestsinColoradoundergoingForestPlanrevisions.Jeffpresentedonfutureclimateanddroughtrisks,andcontributedtodiscussionsandsmall-groupbreakouts.DroughtWebinarsInSpringof2017,WWAheldtwowebinarsondrought,oneontheuseofEDDI(evaporativedemanddroughtindex)andoneonanewranchingdroughtinsurancetool.BothweresponsoredbyourpartnersatNIDIS.ImtiazRangwalaandJeffLukaspresentedonthephysicalbasisbehindEDDI,howitcomparestootherdroughtindicesandpossibleusesofEDDI,includinganemphasisonflashdrought.About50peopleattendedtheEDDIwebinar.Inthesecond,WilliamTravisandTrishaShrumpresentedtheirnewranchinginsurancetool,whichallowsuserstoexperimentwiththeeconomicsofpurchasingtherelativelynewUSDAPasture,ForageandRangelandInsuranceproduct,whichpaysoutbasedonNOAA’sgriddedprecipitation.Theypresentedanonlineexperimentoffiveyearsofrainfallandinsurancepurchaseswithvariousoptionsforadaptingtodrought.About20peopleattendedthiswebinar.MountainResearchStationRetreatwithUSDANorthernPlainsHubandNCCSC

WWAhostedaretreatattheUniversityofColorado’sMountainResearchStationfortheUSDANorthernPlainsClimateHubandtheUSGSNorthCentralClimateScienceCenter.ColleaguesfromtheNationalParkServiceandNIDISwerealsoinattendanceatthisdayandahalfevent.Thesessionsfocusedondroughtandthevariousprojectsinprogressacrossthethreecenters.Climateassessmentactivitieswerealsoakeyfocuswithdiscussionoftheupcoming4thNationalClimateAssessmentandtheroleeachcenterwouldplayinthatprocess.


12

WWA2016-2017ProjectReports

BalancingSevereDecisionConflictsunderClimateExtremesinWaterResourceManagement

PrimaryInvestigator(s):L.Dilling,J.Kasprzyk,L.Kaatz(DenverWater)

OtherInvestigator(s):R.Smith,K.Averyt,I.Rangwala,L.Basdekas(ColoradoSpringsUtilities)

Stakeholders:DenverWater,ColoradoSpringsUtilities,NorthernWaterConservancyDistrict,AuroraWater,CityofBoulderUtilities,CityofFortCollinsUtilities(collectivelyknownastheFrontRangeClimateChangeGroup)

Exploringtheutilityofmulti-objectiveevolutionaryalgorithms(MOEAs)forimprovingtheabilityofwaterutilitiestoidentifyviableadaptationstrategiesunderclimateextremes.

Overthepastseveralyearstherehavebeenincreasingcallsfordecisionsupporttoolsintheareaofclimate,andacknowledgementthatchangingextremesaddtoanalreadychallengingdecisionenvironmentforwatermanagers.Recurringdroughts,floods,andconcernsoverextremeeventsinthefuturehavecreatedastronginterestamongwatermanagersintheFrontRangeofColoradoinhowtoplanfortheseextremes.Traditionalmethodsofidentifyingalternativesforwatersupplymanagementmaynotfullycapturetherangeofexistingpreferredalternatives,meaningthatutilitiesmaymisssomeofthesolutionsthatappropriatelybalanceamongtradeoffs.Inthisproject,wehaveco-producedandaretestinganewlydevelopedmulti-objectivedecisiontool,balancingconflictingmanagementobjectivesforwaterplanningunderclimateextremesanddetermininghowpolicyalternativesperformundersevereclimateuncertainty.Inthepastyear,wehavecompletedoptimizationrunswithacompletemodelofthehypotheticalFrontRangewatermanagementcontext.WehavedevelopedperformanceobjectivesforthemodelandusedCMIP3andCMIP5BureauofReclamationdownscaledclimateprojectionstodevelopclimatescenariostotesttheutilityoftheMOEAtool.Weconductedaworkshoptoevaluatehowwatermanagersinteractedwiththetoolandunderstanditsuseinpotentialfuturedecisions.WWAcollaboratorscontributedsignificantexpertiseinthedesignandconductoftheworkshop.Adissertationprojectisbeingcompletedsummarizingtheresultsoftheseexperimentsandtooltesting.

Deliverables:SecondworkshopheldonJune30,2016.Fourconferencepresentationsandonepublication(Smithetal.inpress)

LeveragedFunding:$261,000fromNOAASARPcompetitivegrant(L.Dilling,PI)

RegionalExtremesDatabaseandEventMaps

PrimaryInvestigator(s):W.Travis,J.Lukas,K.Wolter

OtherInvestigators(s):A.McCurdy

Stakeholders:Hazardmitigationplanners,emergencymanagers,waterresourcemanagers

Developingadatabaseandvisualizationsofextremeeventstoassisthazardplannersandemergencymanagers.

Extremeeventscausethemajorityofsocietalcostsrelatedtoweatherandclimateandcanprovokeadaptiveresponses.Thisprojectisdesignedtoplaceextremeeventsinthecontextofhistoricalclimatevariabilityandprojectedclimatechange,assesshowriskvariesovertimeandspace,andexaminehowextremeeventsinteractwithplace-basedvulnerability.Tothisend,WWAbuilttwodatabasesofhistoricalextremeweatherandclimateeventsintheWWAthree-stateregion(Colorado,UtahandWyoming),bothavailableonourwebsite.Thefirstisaselectiverosterof~160ofthehighest-impactweatherandclimateeventsinthethree-stateregionbacktothemid-1800s,andthesecondisamorecomprehensivedatasetculledfromtheNOAANCEIStormEventsDatabasefocusedonthepost-1950periodthatincludesover20,000weatherevents.Therosterofhigh-impacteventshasbeenreviewedbyallthreeofthestateclimateofficesinourregion.Fromthelargerdatasetofstormevents,wegeneratedasetofmonthlyoccurrencemaps,bycounty,fortendifferenteventtypes.Thesedatabasesareintendedtobeusefultohazardplannersandemergencymanagerstryingtoidentifywhereandwhentheriskfordifferenttypesofextremeeventsisgreatest.Itwillalsoserveasafoundationforfurtherresearchonwhatleadstothevariationinriskovertimeandspace.Wearecurrentlyreachingouttostakeholderstosolicitsuggestionstorefinetheseproductsandapplythedata.

Deliverables:Web-basedsearchabledatabaseofhigh-impacthistoricaleventsandsetofeventmapsfor10differenteventtypes.

DroughtplanningontheWasatchFrontusingpaleo-droughtinformationandfutureclimateprojections

PrimaryInvestigator(s):S.Arens

Stakeholders:WeberBasinWaterConservancyDistrict,UtahDivisionofWaterResourcesandUtahStateUniversity

Partners:D.JohnsonandD.Hess(WeberBasinWaterConservancyDistrict),D.RosenbergandJ.Stagge(UtahStateUniversity),S.McGettigan,C.HasenyagerandA.Nay(UtahDivisionofWaterResources)

DroughtcontingencyplandevelopmentforWeberBasinWaterConservancyDistrict

WeberBasinWaterConservancyDistrict(WBWCD)wasawardedagrantinJune2016fromtheUSBureauofReclamationtodevelopadroughtcontingencyplan.ArensreceivedonemonthofsalaryfromthegrantawardtodevelopfutureprojectionsofWeberRiverstreamflow.


13

TheprojectusesaRiverWaresystemsmodeloftheWeberRiverBasintoexplorehowpastandfuturedroughtsmayimpactwateravailabilityandreservoirstorageintheWeberRiverBasin.WBWCDisarelativelyjuniorwaterrightsholder,despiteprovidingwatertoseveralhundredthousandresidentsofthenorthernWasatchFront.Theprojectwilluseinformationderivedfrompaleo-reconstructionsofWeberRiverstreamflowusingtreeringstounderstandhowdroughtsofthepastcouldimpactwateravailabilityintheWeberRiverBasin.FutureWeberRiverstreamflowswereprojectedusingtheNOAAColoradoBasinRiverForecastCenteroperationalmodels.InformationaboutpastandfuturedroughtconditionsintheWeberRiverBasinwillbeusedtodevelopadroughtcontingencyplantohelpWBWCDprepareforfuturevariabilityinWeberRiverwateravailability.

Deliverables:FutureprojectionsofWeberRiverstreamflowbasedonprojectedchangesintemperatureandprecipitationderivedfromGlobalClimateModels.AreportonthisprojectwillbecompletedbyWBWCDinFall2017.

Leveragedfunding:$150,000eachfromUSBureauofReclamationandWBWCD

UseofPotentialEvapotranspirationtoPredictFutureWaterUse

PrimaryInvestigator:S.Arens

Stakeholders:JordanValleyWaterConservancyDistrict(JVWCD)

Partners:B.Forsythe,T.Schultz(JVWCD),C.Dewes

Usingdownscaledprojectionsoffuturepotentialevapotranspirationtopredictfuturewaterdemand

Thisprojectwillprovideprojectionsofpotentialevapotranspiration(PET),pasttrendsinPETanditscomponentstohelpJVWCDunderstandhowwaterdemandmaychangeinthefuture.TheMultivariateAdaptiveConstructiveAnalog(MACA)downscaledclimatedatasetwillbeusedtocalculatePETforthreefuturetimeperiods.AnanalysisofpasttrendsinPET,evaporationandthephysicaldriversofbothprocesseswillbeconducted.Akeycomponentoffuturewaterdemandisalsothelengthoftheoutdoorwateringseason;projectionsoffuturetemperaturesandthegrowingdegreedayindexwillbeusedtocharacterizefuturechangesinthelengthoftheoutdoorwateringseason.AmodelbetweenobservedPETandoutdoorwaterusewasdeveloped.ThismodelwasthenusedtopredictfutureoutdoorwaterusebasedonprojectionsoffuturePET.Thisstudyaimstoinformlong-termplanningforJVWCDbygivingestimatesofhowmuchoutdoorwaterusemaychangeduetochangesinPET.

Deliverables:AfinalreportonthisprojectwaspreparedforJVWCDinApril2017.TheprojectreportwillbeadaptedtoaWWAwhitepaperinsummer2017.

DynamicsofVulnerabilityBetweenUrbanandRuralCommunitiesinDroughtPlanningandMitigation

PrimaryInvestigator:JenniferHenderson,LisaDilling,UrsulaRick,RebeccaMorss(NCAR)andOlgaWilhelmi(NCAR)

Stakeholders:Waterutilities,municipalities,andagriculturalcommunityalongArkansasRiverBasin

Usingremotelysensedsnowpackdatatoreducenegativeimpactsinwatermanagement

Asmunicipalitiesimplementadaptationormitigationplansbasedonpastdroughtexperiencethatimprovetheirresilience,emergentandunexpectedvulnerabilitiescanariseinresponsetothesechanges.Theycanhappenimmediatelyinresponsetowaterstrategiesormaybedisplacedintimeorspace(e.g.inruralcommunitiesmonthslater).Thegoalsofthisprojectarethreefold:1)Tounderstandthetypesofvulnerabilitiestodroughtthatwaterutilities,industries,agriculturalproducers,andmunicipalleadersareconcernedaboutandplanfor;2)Totracethedynamicnatureofvulnerabilitiestodroughtthatemergebetweenurbanandadjacentruralcommunitiesastheimplementdroughtplans;3)Toidentifythetriggersforemergentvulnerabilitiesthatmaybedisplacedacrosstimeandspaceindroughtcontexts.Tomeetthesegoals,thePIisinterviewingrepresentativesfromeachstakeholdergroupinsitesalongtheArkansasRiverBasin.Initialresultssuggestthatstakeholdersarewellversedinthecommonvulnerabilitiestheirsectorfaces,andevennewresilientstrategiesthathaveemergedbasedonexperienceswithrecentdroughts(e.g.2002and2012).However,manyexpressedsurpriseatsomeoftheunanticipatedoutcomesinadjacentcommunities.Thisprojectwillbeextendedtotwoothersites,inUtahandWyoming,tobetterunderstandtherangeofstakeholderneedsforbetterinformationaboutdroughtandclimateinformation,newstrategiesforthinkingabouttheinterrelatednessbetweenurbanandruralcommunities,andtoolsthatmayhelpthembetterunderstandtheirownsector’sorcommunity’suniquevulnerabilitiesandresiliencestrategiesbasedonpastexperienceswithdrought.

Deliverables:Peerreviewedpapers,droughtexperiencescaleLeveragedfunding:$100,000,2-yearCIRESVisitingFellowship


14

UsabilityofRemotelySensedSnowpackDataforStreamflowForecastingandWaterSystemManagement

PrimaryInvestigator(s):J.Lukas,N.Molotch,J.Deems

OtherInvestigator(s):B.Livneh,M.Raleigh,J.Berggren,K.Jennings

Stakeholders:NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),UncompahgreBasinwatermanagers,RioGrandeBasinwatermanagers,ColoradoBasinRiverForecastCenter

Usingremotelysensedsnowpackdatatoreducenegativeimpactsinwatermanagement

Akeyindicatorofwateravailability,andtheprimaryinputtostreamflowmodels,isApril1snowwaterequivalent(SWE),whichhashistoricallybeenmonitoredfromanetworkofin-situSNOTELobservingsitesacrosstheWest,buttworemote-sensing-basedapproacheshaverecentlybeendevelopedtocomplementandextendtheSNOTELnetwork.Inthefirstapproach,usedbyMolotchandgroup,MODISsatellitesnow-covermeasurementsalongwitharegressionfromhistoricSNOTELdataarecombinedtoreconstructSWE.Inthesecond,usedbyDeemsandgroup,airborneLIDARmeasurementsofsnowdepthareusedtoestimateSWE.ThisprojectwillassesstheusabilityofthesespatialSWEproductsbywatermanagers,andtheirpotentialtoimproverunoffforecasts.Insummer2016,phoneinterviewswereconductedwithwatermanagersintheUncompahgreRiverandRioGrandebasinstobetterunderstandhowtheyhaveusedsnowpackdataandrunoffforecastsintheirdecision-making,especiallymanagingfordroughtyearsandverywetyears.Focusingonthoserecentyearsinwhichtherewereunusualsnowpackandrunoffconditionsthatweredifficulttomonitor,forecast,andpreparefor,wewillusethespatialSWEproductsandhydrologicmodelsimulationstoassesswhetherthenewSWEproductscouldhaveprovidedbetterinformationtoprepareforthoseevents.PIMolotchandK.JenningshavepreparedMODISdataforthetwobasinstobeusedinhydrologicmodels.PIDeemshaspreparedASOdatafromtheUncompahgreBasinforuseinthemodels.K.Jenningsleveragedhigh-resolutionsnowdepthobservationsandsnowwaterequivalent(SWE)estimatesfromNASA’sAirborneSnowObservatory(ASO)inordertoquantifyerrorsincurrentsnowproducts.HefoundthelargespatialscaleofNLDAS-2gridcellsmadethesnowproductunsuitableforuse.Only8gridcellscompletelyorpartiallyoverlappedtheUncompahgreRiverBasinandtheyoftenshowedsnow-freeconditionswhensnowwasstillreportedatthetwoaforementionedSNOTELsites.Similarly,theSNODASSWEproductperformedpoorlyrelativetoASOdata(Fig.1).SNODAStypicallyoverestimatedsubalpineSWEwhilesignificantlyunderestimatingalpineSWE.WehavealsotakeninitialstepstowardsmodelingSWEintheUncompahgreusingtheDistributedHydrologyVegetationSoilModel(DHSVM).

Deliverables:Reportontheimpactofsnowpackdataonthestressfuleventsanddecisionsrelatedtothoseevents.Leveragedfunding:$60,000,NASAGraduateStudentFellowshipforK.Jennings

MappingClimateServices

PrimaryInvestigator(s):E.McNie,A.Meadow(CLIMAS,UniversityofArizona)

Stakeholders:NOAAWesternRegionalCollborationTeam

Towardclosingthegapbetweenclimateserviceprovidersandusers.

Adaptingtoclimatechangerequiresdecisionmakerstohaveinformationinhandthatisrelevanttosolvetheirproblems,informationthatissalient,credibleandlegitimate.Decisionmakers,however,donotoftenhavetheinformationtheyneed;perhapstheyareunawareofexistingusefulinformation,gettoomuchofthewrongkindofinformation,orhaveinformationneedsthatgounmet,leavingthemtomuddlethroughimportantdecisionsthatcouldhelppeopleadapttoclimatevariabilityandchange.Hundredsoforganizationshavebeencreatedorevolvedtohelpcreate,translateanddisseminatepotentiallyusefulclimateinformation.Such“climateserviceorganizations”existinbothpublicandprivatedomains,atresearchuniversitiesandprivateorganizations,andrepresentawidevarietyofsectors.Unfortunately,potentialusersofclimateinformationoftendonotknowwheretolookforrelevantinformation,norareproducersofclimateinformationwell-connectedtopotentialusers,resultinginagapthatseparatesthesupplyanddemandofclimateinformation.Thisprojectdevelopedadatabaseofclimate-serviceorganizationsintheNOAAWestregionasafirstattempttobridgethegapbetweenproducersandusers.Organizationswereassignedattributesbasedonthesectorinwhichtheywork,thetypesofinformationtheyprovide,theserviceareacovered,thetypeofsponsoringorganization,andmanyothers.Thefinishedproductisasearchabledatabasethatisopenandusablebythepublicaswellasareportthatprovidespreliminaryanalysisofthefindingsfromthedatabase.

Deliverables:Searchabledatabase,ClimateServiceProvidersDatabaseDevelopmentandPreliminaryAnalysisreport


15

EvaluationofDroughtPlanningResearchontheWindRiverReservation

PrimaryInvestigator(s):E.McNie

Stakeholders:S.McNeeley(NorthCentralClimateScienceCenter),C.Knutson(NationalDroughtMitigationCenter),WindRiverReservation

ProvidingsupportfortribaldroughtplanningeffortsontheWindRiverReservation.

IncollaborationwiththeEasternShoshoneandNorthernArapahoetribes,WWApartnersattheDoINCCSCandtheNDMCaredevelopingacomprehensivedroughtplanfortheWindRiverIndianReservationinWyoming.Theresearchteamisdevelopinganalyticaltoolsandprovidesanalysistoinformthedroughtplan.WWAinvestigatorMcNie’sroleisprovidingevaluationsupportandhelpingtoinformtheresearchdesign.Sheusedatypologyofresearchapproachestoguidethedesignandanalysisofresearchgoals,objectivesandprocessesinordertoensurethattheprojectmetitsgoalsofproducingusefuldroughtinformationtoinformfuturepolicydecisions.Shealsodeliveredherfindingstoajointmeetingoftheresearchteam.

Deliverables:Typologysurveyresults,evaluationofdroughtplanningresearch

Evaporation,Drought,andtheWaterCycleAcrossTimescales:ClimateFoundationalSciencesfortheNorthCentralClimateScienceCenter

PrimaryInvestigator(s):I.Rangwala,J.Barsugli,B.Livneh,M.Hobbins(NIDIS)

OtherInvestigator(s):J.Lukas,A.Ray,K.Clifford

Stakeholders:TheNatureConservancy,USForestService,otherconservationagencies

Partners:J.Morisette,D.Ojima,andS.McNeeley(NCCSC);R.Rondeau,CONaturalHeritageProgram;J.Rice(SouthernRockiesLCC);L.Joyce(USFSRockyMountainResearchStation);D.Llewellyn(BureauofReclamation);M.Friggens(USForestService)

ProvidingclimatesciencesupportfortheDOINorthCentralClimateScienceCenter,particularlyforwatercycleissues.

TheClimateFoundationalScienceArea(FSA)identifiesandaddressesthephysicalclimatesciencechallengesthatareimportantforecologistsandnaturalresourcemanagersintheNCCSCdomain,aswellasmeettheirclimateinformationanddatarequirements.Inordertounderstandhowclimatechangewillaffecttheecosystemsinthisregion,weconductresearchtoimproveourabilitytounderstand,measureandmodelthesurfacewaterbalance,andhowthatbalancemightchangeduringthe21stcentury.Acriticalresearch,tooldevelopmentandoutreacheffortofClimateFSAisfocusedondrought,whichisadominantdriverofecological,economic,andsocialstressintheregion,andisalsoanimportantintegratingthemeacrossthedifferentNCCSC’sFSAs.Projectengagementsmorespecificallyinclude:(a)researchintotheexaminationofphysicalmechanisms(e.g.,extendedsurfaceheatingand/orperiodsoflowprecipitation,snowandsoilmoistureprocesses,andanomaliesandtrendsintheevaporativedemand),forbothhistoricaland21stcenturytimeperiodsindifferentregionsoftheNCCSCdomain,thatmodulatedroughtevolution,persistenceanddissipation,aswellastheirrelationshipwiththesynoptic-scaleclimatefeatures,(b)evaluationanddevelopmentofclimateproductsthatarerelevanttothesurfacewaterbalanceanddrought(e.g.,droughtindicessuchasEDDI),(c)climateresearchsupporttoNCCSCfundedprojects(e.g.,WRIRDroughtPreparednessProject),(d)synthesisandassessmentofexistinginformationondroughtresearchrelevanttotheNCCSCdomainforuseinadaptation,and(e)acontinuingstakeholderoutreachandengagementtoenhanceusabilityofthisresearchandinformationthat’sdeveloped.

LeveragedFunding:$450,777fromtheNCCSC.

CommunicatingClimateChangefortheU.S.ForestServiceIntermountainAdaptationPartnership

PrimaryInvestigator(s):D.PetersonandJ.Halofsky(USFS/UniversityofWashington),L.Joyce(USFS)andS.Arens

Stakeholder:U.S.ForestService

Partners:L.Joyce(USFS),M.TalbertandJ.Morisette(USGSNorthCentralClimateScienceCenter)

ProvidingclimatechangeanddroughtassessmenttotheUSFSinUtah

TheIntermountainregionoftheU.S.ForestServicebeganaformalplanningprocesstoconsidertheimpactsofclimatechangeonforestresourcemanagementcalledtheIntermountainAdaptationPartnership.S.ArenswasaskedbytheU.S.ForestServicetopresentinformationaboutfutureclimateprojectionsattwoWasatchFrontworkshopsabouttheIntermountainAdaptationPartnership.OnemeetingfocusedontheWasatchandUintasub-regionoftheIntermountainWestandtheotherworkshopfocusedonthePlateuasregionofcentralUtah.ThegoalofeachmeetingwastointroduceinformationaboutclimatechangeintheIntermountainWestandtogatherUSFSresourcemanagerstobrainstormaboutpotentialclimateadaptationstrategies.S.ArenswasalsoaskedtoparticipateinreviewingthefinalIntermountainAdaptationPartnershipreport.S.ArenswasalsoaskedbytheUSFStogiveapresentationatanIntermountainWestdroughtworkshopinMarch2017inOgden,UT.

Deliverables:PresentinformationaboutfutureclimateintheIntermountainWestregionfortwoworkshopsinJune2016.PresentinformationaboutdroughtandclimatechangeintheIntermountainWestataUSFSdroughtworkshopinMarch2017.


16

DecisionAnalysisforClimateAdaptation

PrimaryInvestigator(s):W.Travis

OtherInvestigator(s):A.McCurdy,T.Shrum

Stakeholders:Ranchersandothersassociatedwiththerangelivestockindustry(e.g.,agextensionspecialists)

Developmentofsimulationmodelsanddecisiontoolsfordroughtadaptation

Theadaptationdecisionanalysisprojectseekstoanalyzedecisionprocessesinclimate-sensitivesectorsandtobuilddecisionmodelsthatactasbothresearchtoolsanddecisionaids.Inthisyear,weputallofourfocusonthewesternrangelivestockindustry,akaranching,themostextensiveagriculturalsystemintheAmericanWest.WithassistancefromtheUSDANorthernPlainsClimateHub,theWWAteamfinishedbuilding,anddistributedtwoversionsoftheDroughtRanchInsuranceResponse(DRIR)model.BothincludemodulesthatcalculateranchoutcomeswithandwithouttheUSDA’sforageandrangeinsurance,anindexinsuranceproductlinkedtoNOAA’sgriddedprecipitationproduct.Thespreadsheetversion,whichiseasiestforproducerstouse,canbedownloaded,alongwithinstructions,fromtheWWA’s“UnderstandingandMonitoringDrought”webpages.Anon-lineversion,writtenintheRcodinglanguage,wasdemonstratedonaNIDIS-sponsoredwebinarinMaywhichalsoprovidedtheURLforrunningitonline.Nextstepsaretoinviteproducersandotherstotestthedroughtresponsemodelviaagriculturalconferencesandpublications.Thenextresearchstepsaretosubmitapaperdescribingthemodelforpeer-reviewedpublicationandtoset-upexperimentaltrialstogathersufficientrunsamplestotesthypothesesabouttheroleofdroughtforecasts,insurance,andmarketconditionsinrancherdecision-makinginthefaceofdrought.

Deliverables:Workingspreadsheetversionofthedroughtdecisionmodel(DRIR)demonstratedinwebinarandpublishedindownloadablefromontheWWAwebsite.Testverisonoftheonline“R”verison(DRIR-R)demonstratedinaNIDISwebinarandURLpublishedfortesting.

IntermountainWestClimateDashboards

PrimaryInvestigator(s):J.Lukas

Partners:NIDIS,CLIMAS

Stakeholders:Waterresourcesmanagers;anyoneneedingtomonitorevolvingweather,climate,andhydrologicconditions

ExpansionofthescopeofwidelyusedclimateinformationwebresourcetomatchtheIntermountainWestDroughtEarlyWarningSystem.

TheWWAIntermountainWestClimateDashboard,isawebresourcewithagridof30weather,climateandwaterinformationgraphicsthatareautomaticallyupdatedontheDashboardastheirprovidersupdatethem.Thegraphicsaresupplementedbymonthlytextbriefinghighlightingthemostimportantconditionsandtrends.FeedbackfromWWAstakeholdershasindicatedthatthisDashboardisaveryuseful‘one-stopshop’forup-to-dateclimateandwaterinformationforWWA’sthree-stateregion.Thecreationofsimilardashboardsbyotherclimate-serviceentities(e.g.,theGreatBasinClimateDashboardbyWRCCandDRI/CNAP)isconfirmationoftheeffectivenessofthisformat.SincetheinitiationoftheDashboard,itsspatialscopehasbeenfocusedonColorado,Utah,andWyoming.ThecreationoftheIntermountainWestDroughtEarlyWarningSystem(IMWDEWS)byNIDISin2016createdanincentivetoexpandtheClimateDashboardtocovertheotherstatesintheIMWDEWS:ArizonaandNewMexico.InMay2017thegraphicsdisplayedontheDashboardwereupdatedandexpandedsothosetwostateswereincludedforallclimateandwatervariables.AsecondmonthlytextbriefingfocusedonArizonaandNewMexicowasalsoinitiated,usingthehighlightsfromthelatestCLIMASSouthwestClimateOutlook.

Deliverables:TheIntermountainWestClimateDashboardwebresource

ResearchtoOperationsintheRISANetwork

PrimaryInvestigator(s):E.McNie,R.Klein

Stakeholders:RISAPrograms,NOAAClimateProgramOffice

Researchintheusabilityofclimateandweatherresearchhassuggestedthatthereisa‘valleyofdeath’thatseparatestheproductionanddevelopmentofresearchoutputsandtoolswiththeirusebypractitioners,resultingintheproductionofpotentiallyusefulweatherandclimateinformationthatgoesunused.WWAsoughttoinvestigatethisvalleyofdeathinthecontextofhowwellclimate-servicerelatedresearchbecomesoperationalinthecontextoftheRISAprogram.Researchtooperations,applicationsorotheruse(R2X)should,hypothetically,beamorerobustpracticeinorganizationssuchastheRISAs.ThisyearRobertaKleinandElizabethMcNiedevelopedaresearchprojecttoexamineR2XintheRISAprogram.AsurveywassenttoallinvestigatorsintheRISAprograms(exceptthemostrecentlydevelopedRISA)andwereaskedavarietyofquestionstoascertaintheeffectivenessofR2X,supportfororbarriersagainstR2X,andhowmighttheRISAprogrambettersupportR2XeffortswithinindividualRISAprograms.FindingsfromtheresearchwhichwereincludedinareportindicatethatmanyofthechallengesandopportunitiesidentifiedinpreviousNationalResearchCouncilreportsexistwithintheRISAprogram.However,therearealsoopportunitiesfortheRISAprogramtoprovidebettersupport,includingfinancialandprogrammatic,forindividualRISAprogramstoenhancetheireffectivenessofR2X.

Deliverables:Klein,R.andE.McNie(2017)ResearchTransitionsintheNOAARISAProgram.WesternWaterAssessmentReport


17

Extremes:Adaptingstormwaterinfrastructuretoextremeprecipitation

PrimaryInvestigator(s):W.Travis,A.McCurdy,I.Rangwala

Stakeholders:Stormwatermanagers.

Developingmodelsofstormwaterinfrastructurereplacement

Inthissecondyearofworkonthisextremeeventstheme,focusedonhowtoadaptstormwaterinfrastructure,wefinalizedthe“Culvert”model,placedtheRcodeonourwebpageunder“StormwaterManagement,”fordownload,andpublishedapeer-reviewedarticleonthemodelanditsresults.Themodelsimulatestheeffectsofincreasingflowsonroadwayculverts,whicharetypicallyconstructedtoconveycertainflowvolumes.Keymodeloutputsincludewhenandhowtomodifystormwaterinfrastructureasclimatechangesandculvertfailuresbecomemorelikely.Thekeyfinding,conveyedinourpreviousannualreport(andnowinformalpublication)wasthataggressiveanticipatoryreplacementofculvertsiseconomicallyinefficientevenunderratherlargeclimatechangescenarios.Thisisduetothesunkinvestmentofculvertsandthetrafficdisruptioncausedbyconstruction.Themostefficientadaptationpathwayunderclimateuncertaintyappearstobetoinvestmoreefforttoevaluatethevulnerabilityofeachculvertnomatterwhatitslife-cyclestatus,andadaptonlythoselikelytofailureinthenearterm.So,thisyearwealsocreatedasecondversionofthemodeltotesthowinformationaboutvulnerabilityofeachstructureinstallationsitecanimproveprescriptionsforplannedadaptation.Apaperfromthenewapproachiscurrentlyinrevise-and-resubmit.

Deliverables:McCurdy,A.D.&Travis,W.R.(2017)EnvironmentalSystemsandDecisions37:214.doi:10.1007/s10669-017-9631-z

ModeldescriptionandcodepublishedonWWAwebsite.A.McCurdyandW.Travis,“SimulatedClimateAdaptationinStormwaterConveyanceStructures”.Culvertmodel2.0developedtotestalternativeoutcomes,andpaperinrevise-and-resubmitatClimateRiskManagement

ExtremePrecipitationEstimationUnderClimateChangeforDamSafety

PrimaryInvestigator(s):K.Mahoney,J.Lukas

Stakeholders:ColoradoDivisionofWaterResourcesDamSafetyProgram;NewMexicoOfficeoftheStateEngineer,CO-NMREPStechnicaladvisoryboardmembersandotherstakeholders

Assessingthestateofthescienceandpracticeinextremeprecipitationestimationunderclimatechange

TheColoradoDivisionofWaterResourcesandtheNewMexicoOfficeoftheStateEngineerhaveidentifiedandsetasaprioritytheneedtoupdatetheirextremeprecipitationestimatesforuseintheevaluationofspillwayadequacyfordamsinthesestates,basedonthemostmodernmethodsandscientificunderstandingavailable.DuetosimilaritiesingeographyandmeteorologybetweenColoradoandNewMexico,acooperative,regionalstudy(Colorado-NewMexicoRegionalExtremePrecipitationStudy;CO-NMREPS)hasbeenundertaken,thefirstinstanceofstatescombiningresourcesandworkingcollaborativelytowardasolutiontotheproblem.TheprojectbeganinJune2016andisscheduledtobecompletedinJune2018.Ofparticularconcerninbothstatesarequestionsaboutthephysicallimitsonhigh-elevationrainfallamountsandtheannualexceedanceprobability(AEP)oftheextremerainfallamountsusedforspillwaydesign.Thishasledtoaninnovativeensembleapproachdeployingthreedifferentmethodstoupdateextremeprecipitationestimates.TheCO-NMREPSdoesnotseektoexplicitlyincorporateclimatechangeinfluencesinProbableMaximumPrecipitation(PMP)estimatesthroughanythreeapproaches.Recognizingthattheapproachesmayhavelimitationsincharacterizingfutureriskinachangingclimate,thestudy’ssponsorshaveaskedWWAtotakestockofthestateofthescienceandpracticeinPMPestimationandclimatechangeinawhitepaperthatwillbecomeanappendixofthestudyfinalreport.Aninitialliteraturesearchandreviewwascompletedinspring2017,andiscurrentlybeingsupplementedbyasurveyoftheexpertscomprisingtheCO-NMREPSTechnicalAdvisoryBoard.

Deliverables:WhitepapertobepublishedasappendixoftheCO-NMREPSfinalreportin2018;potentialforpeer-reviewedpaper


18

APPENDIXA:Listof2016-2017WWAPublications

Barnhart,T.,N.P.Molotch,B.Livneh,A.Harpold,J.Knowles,D.Schneider(2016).Snowmeltratedictatesstreamflow.GeophysicalResearchLetters,43(15):8006-8016.DOI:10.1002/2016GL069690-9723Burnham,M.,Z.Ma.,J.Endter-Wada,andT.Bardsley(2016).WaterManagementDecisionMakingintheFaceofMultipleFormsofUncertaintyandRisk.JournaloftheAmericanWaterResourcesAssociation,DOI:10.1111/1752-1688.12459.

DewesC.F.,I.Rangwala,J.J.Barsugli,M.T.Hobbins,andS.Kumar(2017).Droughtriskassessmentunderclimatechangeissensitivetomethodologicalchoicesfortheestimationofevaporativedemand.PLoSONE,12(3):e0174045.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0174045.

Dilling,L.,E.Pizzi,J.Berggren,A.Ravikumar,andK.Andersson(2017).Driversofadaptation:Responsestoweather-andclimate-relatedhazardsin60localgovernmentsintheIntermountainWesternU.S.,EnvironmentandPlanningA,1-21,doi:10.1177/0308518X16688686.

Dilling,L.,K.C.Kelsey,D.P.Fernandez,Y.D.Huang,J.B.Milford,andJ.C.Neff(2016).ManagingCarbononFederalPublicLands:OpportunitiesandChallengesinSouthwesternColorado.EnvironmentalManagement,doi:10.1007/s00267-016-0714-2.Eden,J.M.,K.Wolter,F.E.L.Otto,andG.J.vanOldenborgh,2016:Multi-methodattributionanalysisofextremeprecipitationinBoulder,Colorado.EnvironmentalResearchLetters,11,124009,9pp.http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124009/metaFinnessey,T.,M.Hayes,J.LukasandM.Svaboda(2016).Usingclimateinformationfordroughtplanning.ClimateResearch,70,p.251-263,doi:10.3354/cr01406.Hoerling,M.J.Eischeid,J.Perlwitz,X.Quan,andK.Wolter,2016:CharacterizingRecentTrendsinU.S.HeavyPrecipitation.J.Climate,29,2313-2332.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0441.1

Houle,E.S.,B.Livneh,andJ.R.Kasprzyk,2017:ExploringSnowModelParameterSensitivityUsingSobol'VarianceDecomposition,EnvironmentalModelandSoftware,89,144–158.

Klein,R.andE.McNie(2017)ResearchTransitionsintheNOAARISAProgram.WesternWaterAssessmentReport.

LivnehB.,andM.P.Hoerling,2016:ThePhysicsofDroughtintheU.S.CentralGreatPlains.JournalofClimate,29,6783-6804.Lukas,J.,E.McNie,T.Bardsley,J.Deems,andN.Molotch(2016).SnowpackMonitoringforStreamflowForecastingandDroughtPlanning.WesternWaterAssessmentreporttoNIDIS.McCurdy,A.D.andW.R.Travis(2017).Simulatedclimateadaptationinstormwatersystems:Evaluatingtheefficiencyofadaptationstrategies.EnvironmentSystemsandDecisions,1-16,February13,doi:10.1007/s10669-017-9631-z.


19

Meadow,A.,E.McNie,J.Berggren,R.Norton,B.McMahan,G.Owen,andL.Rae(2016).NOAAWesternRegion:ClimateServiceProvidersDatabaseDevelopmentandPreliminaryAnalysis.WesternWaterAssessment,CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofColoradoBoulder,18pages.Raseman,W.J.,J.R.Kasprzyk,F.L.Rosario-Ortiz,J.R.Stewart,andB.Livneh,2017:Emerginginvestigatorsseries:acriticalreviewofdecisionsupportsystemsforwatertreatment:makingthecaseforincorporatingclimatechangeandclimateextremes.EnvironmentalScience:WaterResearch&Technology.Rice,J.,T.Bardsley,P.Gomben,D.Bambrough,S.Weems,S.Leahy,C.Plunkett,C.Condrat,L.A.Joyce,(2017.AssessmentofwatershedvulnerabilitytoclimatechangefortheUinta-Wasatch-CacheandAshleyNationalForests,Utah.Gen.Tech.Rep.RMRS-GTR-362.FortCollins,CO:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearchStation.111p.Rondeau,R.,B.Neely,M.Bidwell,I.Rangwala,L.Yung,K.Clifford,andT.Schulz.2017.SagebrushLandscape:UpperGunnisonRiverBasin,Colorado:Social-EcologicalClimateResilienceProject.NorthCentralClimateScienceCenter,Ft.Collins,Colorado.Rondeau,R.,B.Neely,M.Bidwell,I.Rangwala,L.Yung,K.Clifford,andT.Schulz.2017.Spruce-FirLandscape:UpperGunnisonRiverBasin,Colorado.Social-EcologicalClimateResilienceProject.NorthCentralClimateScienceCenter,Ft.Collins,Colorado.Schneider,D.andN.P.Molotch,(2016).Real-timeestimationofsnowwaterequivalentintheUpperColoradoRiverBasinusingMODIS-basedSWEreconstructionsandSNOTELdata.WaterResourcesResearch,52(10):7892-7910.DOI:10.1002/2016WR019067-9916Simpson,C.,L.Dilling,K.Dow,K.Lackstrom,M.C.Lemos,andR.Riley(2016).Assessingneedsanddecisioncontexts:RISAapproachestoengagementresearch.ClimateinContext:ScienceandSocietyPartneringforAdaptation,Ed.A.ParrisandG.Garfin3-26,WileyandSons.Smith,R,J.R.Kasprzyk,andL.Dilling.“ParticipatoryFrameworkforAssessmentandImprovementofTools(ParFAIT):Increasingtheimpactandrelevanceofwatermanagementdecisionsupportresearch”EnvironmentalModellingandSoftware.InPress.Wolter,K.,M.Hoerling,J.K.Eischeid,andL.Cheng,2016:WhatHistoryTellsusabout2015USDailyRainfallExtremes[in"ExplainingExtremesof2015fromaClimatePerspective"].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,97,S9-13.Woodhouse,C.A.,J.J.Lukas,K.Morino,D.M.Meko,andK.K.Hirschboeck(2016).Usingthepasttoplanforthefuture–Thevalueofpaleoclimatereconstructionsforwaterresourceplanning.InWaterPolicyandPlanninginaVariableandChangingClimate,editedbyK.Miller,A.Hamlet,D.Kenney,andK.Redmond.CRCPress.


20

APPENDIXB:WWAAppearancesinMedia

2017

May31,2017"StrengtheningtheVoiceforSustainability"AmericanLibrariesMagazine

May26,2017"CrowleyCounty:A'PosterChild'forLessWater?"NPR'sKRCC

May24,2017"AFutureWithLessWater:ClimateChangeAlongtheArkansasRiver"NPR'sKRCC

April21,2017"Whattoexpectinourmountainforestsastheclimatewarms"MountainTownNews

April11,2017"THEBUZZ:SlidingintotheFuture"PlanetJacksonHole

April6,2017"HowWillClimateChangeTransformColoradoSpringsOverTheNext100Years?"KRCC,NPR

February25,2017"Gardnercouldleadonclimatechange"DailyCamera

February15,2017"Isthevalleydestinedformorewild,destructivestormsasclimatechangetightensitsgriparoundJackson?"PlanetJacksonHole

January2017"NoahMolotchinterviewonsnowpackintheSierras"KCBSRadio,SanFrancisco

January18,2017"It'sgettinghotter,butexpertshesitanttoblameColoradoSprings'wildweatheronclimatechange"TheGazette


21

2016

December2,2016"UrsulaRick-TheScienceInformant"TheNerdHeardByRyanVachon

November20,2016"ExistentialthreatsintheColoradoRiverBasin"MountainTownNews

October24,2016"Colorado'sRapidPopulationGrowthCausesTrafficProblems,EnvironmentalConcerns"CPRHereandNow

September16,2016"ColoradoRiverfacesfloodofchallenges"PostIndependent

September5,2016"ColoradoRiverseminartakesplaceonSept.16"PostIndependent

August11,2016"SlowerSnowmeltAffectsDownstreamWaterAvailabilityinWesternMountains"NevadaToday

July20,2016"AsClimateChangePushesRunoffEarlier,WaterAndColoradoAgNoLongerCleanlyOverlap"KUNC

July18,2016"ClimateandWater:TheShiftingHydrograph"ColoradoFoundationforWaterEducation

building climate resilience by...

Documents