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Building MEPDG Climate Files
Dr Michael Heitzman PE
NCAT, Auburn University
1Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
NCAT, Auburn University
Dr Gene Takle
Climate Science Program, Iowa State University
Building MEPDG Climate Files
Dr Michael Heitzman PE
NCAT, Auburn UniversityNCAT, Auburn University
Dr Gene Takle
Climate Science Program, Iowa State University
In this presentation….
� Why is climate input important
� Building historic climate files
� Building future climate files
2Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Building future climate files
� Impact on predicted pavement performance
In this presentation….
Why is climate input important
Building historic climate files
Building future climate filesBuilding future climate files
Impact on predicted pavement performance
Pavement Design Variables
PCC ModulusCTB Modulus
Each load application
3Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Time, years2 40
Pavement Design Variables
Traffic
PCC Modulus
HMA Modulus
Time, years
Granular Base Modulus
Subgrade Modulus
86
Modulus
Permenant Deformation: Total Rutting in Pavement La yers (inch)
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70M
axim
um R
uttin
g (in
ch)
Ac Rutting Design Value = 0.25"
90% Reliability90% Reliability
Design LimitDesign Limit
4Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0 18 36 54 72 90 108 126
Pavement age, month
Max
imum
Rut
ting
(inch
)
SubgradeSubgrade
Permenant Deformation: Total Rutting in Pavement La yers (inch)
SubTotalAC
SubTotalGB
SubTotalSG
Total Rutting
Predicted Predicted
RuttingRutting90% Reliability90% Reliability
TotalTotal
144 162 180 198
Total Rutting
TotalRutReliability
HMAHMA
SubgradeSubgradeAggr. BaseAggr. Base
Only 12 MEPDG climate files in Mississippi
� 4 sites with 5-6 years of climate data (very limited)
� 8 with 8-10 years of climate data (limited)
� Starting with mid 1990s
Only 12 MEPDG climate files in Mississippi
6 years of climate data (very limited)
10 years of climate data (limited)
Ames Temperature Trends
6Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Ames Temperature Trends
Iowa Averages and Extremes
Decade Avg High Avg Low
1970s 58.9
7Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
1970s 58.9
1980s 59.6
1990s 58.4
What 10-year period do you want to use for pavement performance prediction?
Iowa Averages and Extremes
Avg Low 100°+ events
(days / weather station)
37.4 637.4 6
38.1 21
38.3 2
year period do you want to use for pavement performance prediction?
Development of
Climate Data Input Files
for the MEPDG
8Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
� Build complete 40-year historic climate files from
county measurements
� Build 40-year future climate files from global and
regional models
Development of
Climate Data Input Files
for the MEPDG
year historic climate files from
year future climate files from global and
9Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
ASOS/AWOSASOS/AWOS COOP
Analysis Grid
Grid Node
10Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
NeighborInterpolation
Analysis Grid
Grid Node
10
11Climate Science Program
Iowa State University11
Complete Historic Files
� 40-year files (1970-2010)
� Each county in the State (82)
12Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Complete Historic Files
Each county in the State (82)
Mississippi County Weather Locations
32.5
33
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
latit
ude
12
30
30.5
31
31.5
32
32.5
-92 -91.5 -91 -90.5 -90 -89.5 -89 -88.5 -88
longitude
latit
ude
How should future climate files be built?
13Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
How should future climate files be built?
13
GLOBAL MODEL35,000 sq-mi pattern
Includes: solar radiation & green
house gasses changes
Frequency: 6 hours over 10 years
REGIONAL MODEL1200 sq-mi pattern
Includes: regional geographic
Contemporary
Scenario(decade of 1990s)
14Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Monthly Climate “DELTAs” (for 50
Temperature DELTA = Future Scenario
Precipitation DELTA = Future Scenario / Contemporary Scenario
Includes: regional geographic
features and climate patterns
Frequency: 3 minutes
Future
Scenario(decade of 2040s)
GLOBAL MODELmi pattern
Includes: solar radiation & green
house gasses changes
Frequency: 6 hours over 10 years
REGIONAL MODELmi pattern
Includes: regional geographic
14
Monthly Climate “DELTAs” (for 50-year period)
Temperature DELTA = Future Scenario – Contemporary Scenario
Precipitation DELTA = Future Scenario / Contemporary Scenario
Includes: regional geographic
features and climate patterns
Frequency: 3 minutes
15Climate Science Program
Iowa State University15
Average Monthly Temperature
16Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Average Monthly Temperature
16
Temperature Distribution
17Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Temperature Distribution
17
Average Monthly Precipitation
18Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Average Monthly Precipitation
18
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
T [C] 1.3 1.5 3.2 2.4 2.7 1.9
P [%] -21 -13 40 14 39 13
50-year DELTA’s
1970-2010Historic Climate
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1.9 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.4
13 -17 17 68 -20 37 -11
year DELTA’s
DELTA
( per
2010-2050Virtual Climate
( per
month)
What is the impact of more accurate climate files?
9.3-in JPCP
20 ft joint spacing
tied PCC shoulder
5.7-in lime stab base
A-2-4 subgrade
12.5-in HMA
AC-30
A-6 subgrade
20Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
A-2-4 subgrade
What is the impact of more accurate climate files?
4.5-in HMA, AC-30
3.0-in AC perm base
12-in A-2-4 base
in HMA
6 subgrade
20
8-in lime stab subgrade
A-6 subgrade
Complete Historic Files
� 40-year files (1970-2010)
� Each county in the State (82)
Critical for calibration
21Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
1985-2000 pavement
� 5-yr MEPDG climate
1995-2000 climate (3x)
� HISTORIC climate
1985-2000 climate
Complete Historic Files
Each county in the State (82)
Mississippi County Weather Locations
32.5
33
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
latit
ude
21
30
30.5
31
31.5
32
32.5
-92 -91.5 -91 -90.5 -90 -89.5 -89 -88.5 -88
longitude
latit
ude
� 40-year climate files
� each climate region (10)
Critical for predicting performance
Complete Future Files
22Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Critical for predicting performance
2010-2030 design
� 5-yr MEPDG climate
1995-2000 climate (4x)
� FUTURE climate
2010-2030 virtual climate
Critical for predicting performance
Complete Future Files
22
Critical for predicting performance
PVMT TYPE
PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE
CLIMATE COMPARISON
PCC FAULT MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual PCC RIDE MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual HMA1 RUTTING MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual
23Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Historic-Virtual HMA1 RIDE MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual HMA2 RUTTING MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual HMA2 RIDE MEDPG-Historic MEPDG-Virtual Historic-Virtual
Mississippi Climate Zone
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
S S S S S S S S S
23
S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S
Faulting (M-H)
0.0250.03
0.0350.04
0.0450.05
Fa
ult
ing
(in
)
9.3-in JPCP
24Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
-0.01-0.005
00.005
0.010.015
0.020.025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zones
Fa
ult
ing
(in
)
Faulting (H-V)
0.0250.03
0.0350.04
0.0450.05
Fa
ult
ing
(in
)
in JPCP
24
-0.01-0.0051E-170.005
0.010.015
0.020.025
0.03
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zones
Fa
ult
ing
(in
)
Rutting (M-H)
0.15
0.2
0.25
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
12.5-in HMA
25Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zones
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
Rutting (H-V)
0.15
0.2
0.25
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
in HMA
25
M-V Zone(1-10),
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zones
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
Rutting (M-H)
0.15
0.2
0.25
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
4.5-in HMA
26Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zones
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
Rutting (H-V)
0.15
0.2
0.25
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
in HMA
26
M-V Zone(1-10),
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Zones
Ru
ttin
g (
in)
Zone 4 Rutting Thin HMA
0.8
1
1.2
rutti
ng (i
nche
s)
MEPDG
27Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1 61 121 181
time (months)
rutti
ng (i
nche
s)
Zone 4 Rutting Thin HMA
HIST VIRT
27
241 301 361 421
time (months)
Historic v MEPDG (Wash Co - thin HMA)
70
80
90
100
110
Mon
thly
Max
Tem
p
MAX-historical MAX-MEPDG
28Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40
month (MEPDG 8/99 - 6/05)(Historical 8/70 - 12/76)
Mon
thly
Max
Tem
p
Historic v MEPDG (Wash Co - thin HMA)MAX-MEPDG AVG-Historical AVG-MEPDG
28
40 50 60 70 80 90
month (MEPDG 8/99 - 6/05)(Historical 8/70 - 12/76)
Current MEPDG 10- year climate files may adversely impact pavement performance predictions� The fix is accurate and improves MEPDG model calibr ation
Future climate may be different from historic clima te and change pavement performance predictions� There are accepted scientific models to build futur e climate
files
29Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
year climate files may adversely impact pavement performance predictions
The fix is accurate and improves MEPDG model calibr ation
Future climate may be different from historic clima te and change pavement performance predictions
There are accepted scientific models to build futur e climate
29
Building MEPDG Climate Files
Dr. Michael Heitzman, PE
NCAT, Auburn University
30Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Dr. Gene Takle
Climate Science Program, Iowa State University
Building MEPDG Climate Files
Dr. Michael Heitzman, PE
NCAT, Auburn University
30
Dr. Gene Takle
Climate Science Program, Iowa State University