Application Title Building Resilience of Vulnerable Communities to Climate Variability in Rwanda’s Congo Nile Divide Through Forest and Landscape Restoration

Country/ Region Rwanda

Accredited Entity Ministry of Environment

Approval Date 27 May 2020

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Request for

Support from

the Project

Preparation

Facility (PPF)

Application Title Building Resilience of Vulnerable Communities to Climate Variability in Rwanda’s Congo Nile Divide Through Forest and Landscape Restoration

Country(ies) Rwanda

Accredited Entity Ministry of Environment

Date of first submission/

Version number

2018/09/27/V1

Date of current submission/ version number

2020/05/12/V.7

Please submit the completed form to ppf@gcfund.org, using the following naming convention in the subject line and the file name: “PPF-[Accredited Entity]- [Country]-yyyymmdd”

2017

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Notes

• The PPF supports the development of projects and programmes and enhance their quality at

entry into the Fund’s pipeline. With a view to enhancing the balance and diversity of the project

pipeline, the PPF is designed to especially support Direct Access Entities for projects in the

micro-to-small size category. International Accredited Entities seeking project preparation

support from the PPF are encouraged to do so especially for LDCs, SIDS and African countries

where no Direct Access Entity is accredited. All Accredited Entities are encouraged to articulate

counterpart support for project preparation within their requests for support from the PPF.

• A PPF submission should include below documents:

1. PPF request (this form)

2. PPF No-Objection letter1

3. Concept Note

• Please copy the National Designated Authority (ies) when submitting this PPF request.

• Requests for support from the PPF should be submitted at the same time or following submission

of a GCF Concept Note for a project or programme.

• Further information on GCF PPF can be found on GCF website Project Preparation Facility

Guidelines.

1 Please note that the PPF No-Objection Letter is different from the Funding Proposal No-Objection Letter. PPF No-Objection Letter template can be downloaded from here.

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2 See here to download the Concept Note template. 3 Template for PPF No-Objection Letter can be downloaded here. 4 The PPF can provide support within the following project preparation activity areas:

i. Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies ii. Environmental, social and gender studies iii. Risk Assessments iv. Identification of programme and project level indicators

Other activities of direct relevance for Direct Access Entities that the PPF can support are as follows: v. Pre-contract services, including the revision of tender documents vi. Advisory services and/or other services to financially structure a proposed activity vii. Other project preparation activities, where necessary, and with sufficient justification

A. Executive Summary

Accredited Entity (AE)

Primary Focal Person

Name: Patrick KARERA

Position: Permanent Secretary

Email: pkarera@environment.gov.rw

Tel: +250 789414092

Full Office address: KG 220 St. Kigali, Rwanda

Has a Concept Note2 been submitted in association with this request for support from the PPF?

Yes ☒ No ☐

If yes, please indicate Project/Programme title: Building Resilience of Vulnerable Communities to Climate Variability in Rwanda’s Congo Nile Divide Through Forest and Landscape Restoration

Has a No-Objection Letter3 been submitted for this request for support from the PPF?

Yes ☒ No ☐

Total Cost

Total cost of Project Preparation activities: US$ 547,455 Amount requested from the PPF: US$ 547,455 Counterpart funding from the AE:

Anticipated Duration Number of months to implement the Project Preparation activities: 12 months

Summary of the request for Project Preparation support

The Congo Nile Divide (CND) region of Rwanda is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Climate change impacts, amplified by human and environmental stressors, have degraded forests, increasing risks to the country’s most vulnerable communities. Over the last year, the Ministry of Environment (MoE), in collaboration with the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), has developed a small-size programme to increase resilience of livelihoods, reduce CO2 emissions and increase the extent and integrity of forest ecosystems in the CND. The resulting programme was submitted to the GCF as a concept and was cleared in August, 2019, for project preparation support. GoR now is seeking support to develop a full proposal to the GCF. While initial studies and consultations demonstrate the need, viability and buy-in for the programme concept, a feasibility study; required ESS and gender studies; and a financial model and economic assessment are needed to develop a full proposal to the GCF. Therefore, the Government of Rwanda is seeking support from the Project Preparation Fund for proposal development costs and aims to submitting a full funding proposal 9 months after PPF funding becomes available.

B. Description of Project Preparation Activities

Outputs and Activities

(Please select Activity Areas4, activities, and deliverables as needed)

Month

(Please shade the implementation period from the starting month of the Output and Activity in the schedule. Please also indicate the

month of completion of each deliverable with “X” in the

corresponding cell)

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Activity and deliverable 1:

PPF activity area: Pre-feasibility, feasibility studies and project design

Feasibility studies; programme design; and development of programme proposal. Sub-activity 1.1: Identification and feasibility assessment of site locations and methods for forest restoration and afforestation. Sub-activity 1.2: Analysis and identification of preferred alternatives for Energy Efficient Stoves to reduce wood fuel demand. Sub-activity 1.3: Feasibility assessment of forest monitoring data sources and analytical methods. Sub-activity 1.4: Programme design. Sub-activity 1.5: Programme funding proposal. Deliverable 1.1: Feasibility report on forest restoration and afforestation. Deliverable 1.2: Feasibility report on Energy Efficient Stoves. Deliverable 1.3: Feasibility report on forest monitoring. Deliverable 1.4: Design of the programme Deliverable 1.5: Development of programme funding proposal.

X

Activity and deliverable 2:

PPF activity area: Environmental, social and gender studies

Preparation of an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and related Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), a Gender and Youth Analysis and Assessment and a related Gender and Youth Action Plan.

Deliverable 2.1: Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) Report that addresses all programme components and activities.

Deliverable 2.2: Environmental and Social Management Plan, including the results of the ESIA, a protection of natural habitats plan, a stakeholder engagement plan for the programme and a programme-level accountability and grievance redress mechanism.

Deliverable 2.3. Gender and Youth Assessment and Gender Youth Action Plan

X

Activity and deliverable 3:

PPF activity area: Advisory services and/or other services to financially structure a proposed activity

Development of a Financial Model and Economic Analysis

Deliverable 3.1: Description of method for the Economic Appraisal and Financial Model

Deliverable 3.2: Economic Appraisal for each of the three programme components and their

X

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C. Justification of the Project Preparation Request

The GoR has prioritised the need for climate impact risk reduction for vulnerable communities in the Congo Nile Divide (CND) region through its Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy and through sector development plans. However, as a least developed country, Rwanda needs external financing to fund the additional net economic costs of climate change, and to deliver its vision of a low carbon route to development. Over the last year, the Ministry of Environment (MoE), in collaboration with the Wildlife Conservation Society, has collaborated to develop a small-size programme (estimated at $48.4 million USD including co-financing) to build resilience of the most vulnerable communities to climate variability in Rwanda’s CND through forest and landscape restoration. The initial studies and consultations demonstrate the need, business viability, and buy-in for the programme concept. Now additional analyses and consultations are needed to develop a full ,cross-cutting proposal to the GCF. The funding requested will enable in depth stakeholder engagement and institutional alignment that are key to the successful design of the programme and to streamlining its implementation. Preparation activities will include a feasibility study for forest restoration, afforestation and monitoring, including developing robust baselines and meaningful indicators related to gender, carbon emissions, climate vulnerability, institutional alignment, and environmental and social safeguards, from which programme progress over time can be measured.

subcomponents, and for the programme as a whole, both guiding and drawing on cost and benefit information collected through the technical feasibility studies.

Deliverable 3.3: Detailed Financial Model (FM), including the costs of each component of the programme (with a breakdown by subcomponent) for the three programme areas, and the programme as a whole, drawing on the cost and programming information from the feasibility studies, and collating the information on programme and external finance and funding modalities. Deliverable 3.4: Economic and financial analysis in spreadsheet format. Deliverable 3.5: Narrative version of economic and financial analysis.

Activity and deliverable 4:

PPF activity area: Pre-contract services, including the revision of tender documents

Budget, Financial Management and Precontract Services

Deliverable 4.1: Description of programme financial flows and implementation arrangements (legal and contractual).

Deliverable 4.2: Detailed programme budget plan and implementation plan and timetable, including budget justification with specific amounts and justification of GCF funds to be used for capacity building and/or for technology development/transfer.

Deliverable 4.3: Detailed programme procurement plan in GCF format. Deliverable 4.6: Programme operations manual.

Deliverable 4.4: Programme operations manual.

X

Estimated time for submission corresponding full Funding Proposal to the GCF

X

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The Government of Rwanda commits to in-kind support to facilitate this preparation process and will engage deeply in the various meetings and reviews of the project preparation activities. However, GoR does not have the resources or expertise to complete all of the required analyses on climate vulnerability and mitigation methodologies, and gender and requires expert inputs for the full stakeholder consultation to achieve FPIC standards. This cannot be achieved without funding from the PPF. Similarly, developing the operational alignment across government programmes to enable the programme’s success and transformational goals, requires engagements and planning that, while facilitated by the AE and the NDA, cannot be implemented by them with their limited staff capacity. The GoR is therefore requesting a grant from the Project Preparation Facility to cover additional proposal development costs to submit a full funding proposal to the GCF.

D. Implementation Arrangement

Guided by the programme goals and components as articulated in the programme concept, the Ministry of Environment (MoE), the Accredited Entity in Rwanda, has agreed to convene a National Steering Committee as the primary governance structure for the programme during the preparation phase. The programme preparation will be led by the Ministry of Environment. An implementation map is provided below. Ministry of Environment (MoE), Accredited Entity: As the Accredited Entity in Rwanda, MoE is responsible for overseeing implementation of the PPF grant. MoE is responsible for the overall management, implementation and supervision of each funded service in line with its own internal rules, policies and procedures, including administering and managing (monitoring, evaluation and reporting responsibilities) the use of GCF funds. MoE will be responsible for:

• Administration of the grant. MoE will be responsible for the administration of the grant and will carry

out such administration with the same degree of care used in the administration of its own funds, in accordance with: i) the GCF Operational Policies and Guidelines; and ii) MoE’s own standard practices and procedures.

• PPF implementation. MoE will be responsible for the overall management of the PPF activities and for developing the underlying programme, including all financial, monitoring and reporting responsibilities. MoE has a Single Project Implementation Unit that its sole responsibility is ensuring project management oversight and implementation. The SPIU has a number of specialist and Program Manager who reports to the Permanent Secretary of the MoE. The Permanent Secretary is also the primary focal person of the AE to the GCF and the chair of the steering committee. MoE will ensure that the PPF activities are conducted in compliance with:

o GCF and MoE safeguards policies; o GCF and MoE fiduciary policies and criteria; o Programme investment and operational indicators; o Environmental and Social Safeguards, in accordance with GCF standards, MoE policies and

Rwandan law; o Any GCF requests for information.

• Procurement of a consulting firm or team of consultants. On approval of the PPF application by the GCF, and following its procurement policies and procedures, which are consistent with those of the GCF, MOE will commission a consulting firm or team to execute the PPF activities. MOE will enter into a contract with the entity that is selected.

• Establishing and Chairing the Steering Committee:

o The Permanent Secretary of MoE will chair the steering committee; o Rwanda Environmental Management Authority, as NDA, will participate;

o Other participants to include Rwanda Agricultural Board, Rwanda Development Board, Rwanda Forestry Authority, Rwanda Land Management and Use Authority, Wildlife Conservation Society and representatives of local Districts

NDA Role. The Rwanda Environmental Management Authority’s role is that of the NDA, linking the GCF and recipient country, coordinating communication between the GCF and National Implementing Entities. After the feasibility studies have been competed, REMA will review the entire package of reports and the full project proposal and, on approval, will issue a no-objection letter to the full funding proposal. REMA will also serve as a member of the steering committee that will govern the PPF implementation. MoE shall implement the Project Preparation Activities with the goal of submitting a funding proposal for approval by the Board within 2 years of the approval of the Project Preparation Funding Application. MoE shall notify the Fund as soon as it has reasons to believe that a submission within this timeframe may not be possible.

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Budget details have been withdrawn for confidentiality purposes

Please submit the completed form to fundingproposal@gcfund.org, using the following name convention in the subject line and file name: “CN-[Accredited Entity or Country]-YYYYMMDD”

Programme/Programme Title:

Building Resilience of Vulnerable Communities to Climate Variability in Rwanda’s Congo Nile Divide Through Forest and Landscape Restoration

Country(ies): Rwanda

National Designated Authority(ies) (NDA): Rwanda Environmental Management Authority (REMA)

Accredited Entity(ies) (AE): Ministry of Environment (MoE)

Date of first submission/ version number: [2018-09-27] [V.2]

Date of current submission/ version number 2020-02-21 V.4

PROGRAMME / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2

Notes

• The maximum number of pages should not exceed 12 pages, excluding annexes. Proposals exceeding the prescribed length will not be assessed within the indicative service standard time of 30 days.

• As per the Information Disclosure Policy, the concept note, and additional documents provided to the Secretariat can be disclosed unless marked by the Accredited Entity(ies) (or NDAs) as confidential.

• The relevant National Designated Authority(ies) will be informed by the Secretariat of the concept note upon receipt.

• NDA can also submit the concept note directly with or without an identified accredited entity at this stage. In this case, they can leave blank the section related to the accredited entity. The Secretariat will inform the accredited entity(ies) nominated by the NDA, if any.

• Accredited Entities and/or NDAs are encouraged to submit a Concept Note before making a request for programme preparation support from the Programme Preparation Facility (PPF).

• Further information on GCF concept note preparation can be found on GCF website Funding Programmes Fine Print.

PROGRAMME / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 1 OF 4

A. Programme/Programme Summary (max. 1 page)

A.1. Project or programme ☐ Project Programme

A.2. Public or private sector

Public sector ☐ Private sector

A.3.Is the CN submitted in Response to an RFP?

Yes ☐ No If yes, specify the RFP: ______________

A.4. Confidentiality1 ☐ Confidential Not confidential

A.5. Indicate the result areas for the programme/programme

Mitigation: Reduced emissions from:

☐ Energy access and power generation

☐ Low emission transport

☐ Buildings, cities and industries and appliances

Forestry and land use Adaptation: Increased resilience of:

Most vulnerable people and communities

Health and well-being, and food and water security

☐ Infrastructure and built environment

Ecosystem and ecosystem services

A.6. Estimated mitigation impact (tCO2eq over lifespan)

2M t CO2eq by 2050

A.7. Estimated adaptation impact (number of direct beneficiaries and % of population)

305,800 vulnerable people around protected forests and National Parks (15% of Congo Nile Divide population; 2.5% of Rwanda population)

A.8. Indicative total programme cost (GCF + co-finance)

Amount: USD 48.4 m

A.9. Indicative GCF funding requested Amount: USD 38.4

A.10. Mark the type of financial instrument requested for the GCF funding

Grant ☐ Reimbursable grant ☐ Guarantees ☐ Equity ☐ Subordinated loan ☐ Senior Loan ☐ Other: specify___________________

A.11. Estimated duration of programme/ programme:

5 Years :

A.12. Estimated programme/ Programme lifespan

2022-2027

A.13. Is funding from the Programme Preparation Facility requested?2

Yes No ☐ Other support received☐ If so, by who:

A.14. ESS category3 ☐ A or I-1 B or I-2 ☐ C or I-3

A.15. Is the CN aligned with your accreditation standard? Yes No ☐ A.16. Has the CN been

shared with the NDA? Yes No ☐

A.17. AMA signed (if submitted by AE)

Yes No ☐ If no, specify the status of AMA negotiations and expected date of signing:

A.18. Is the CN included in the Entity Work Programme?

Yes No ☐

1Concept notes (or sections of) not marked as confidential may be published in accordance with the Information Disclosure Policy (Decision B.12/35) and the Review of the Initial Proposal Approval Process (Decision B.17/18). 2See here for access to programme preparation support request template and guidelines 3 Refer to the Fund’s environmental and social safeguards (Decision B.07/02)

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A.19. Programme/Programme rationale, objectives and approach of programme/programme (max 100 words)

Climate change impacts, amplified by human and environmental stressors, are degrading forests and diminishing critical ecosystem services for vulnerable communities in Rwanda’s Congo Nile Divide (CND). This programme will increase resilience of livelihoods, reduce CO2 emissions, build capacity for integrated spatial planning and increase the extent and integrity of forest ecosystems in the CND. This will be achieved through integrated landscape planning and management, and through forest and landscape restoration. Implementation will be led by Ministry of Environment (MoE), supported by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), in partnership with government and non-government entities, research centres, communities and stakeholders, especially women.

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B. Programme/Programme Information (max. 8 pages)

B.1. Context and baseline (max. 2 pages) The Congo-Nile Divide (CND), an area of 4,446 km2 separates the drainage basins of the Congo and Nile rivers. The Rwanda portion of the CND (Annex 1) runs from the Virunga Mountains and Volcanoes National Park (VNP) on the border with Uganda in the North, down through Gishwati Mukura National Park (GMNP), to the south end of Lake Kivu and Nyungwe National Park (NNP) on the southern border with Burundi. These three national parks contain the country’s only remaining montane forests Climate vulnerabilities and impacts: Climate models (RCP4.5) for Rwanda project an increase in minimum and maximum monthly temperatures (1.5-2.8 ° C) and greater seasonal variability in rainfall, with shorter, more intense rainy seasons and longer dry seasons (Asumadu-Sarkodie et al. 2015). Rwanda already is experiencing many of these changes: (1) average annual temperatures have risen 0.7-0.9 ° C since 1950; (2) periods of intense rainfall are increasing in frequency and intensity, particularly in the CND; and (3) droughts have increased, especially in the eastern and southern regions, including part of the CND (Mukhala et al. 2017). The forests of Rwanda’s CND are critical for the ecosystem services and products they provide for both the region’s vulnerable communities and the national economy. They have been identified as an essential tool for ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) in Rwanda’s Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy (GGCRS 2011). Most importantly, they regulate Rwanda’s climate by capturing and creating rainfall (Seimon 2012), which is crucial for Rwanda’s rainfed agriculture. These also recharge aquifers; regulate water flow; control flooding; retain soil; provide wood fuel energy and timber; underpin the country’s tourism, which provides the largest contribution to Rwanda’s foreign exchange earnings (RDB 2017); and provide wider benefits of atmospheric pollution control that sustain the country’s economy and the wellbeing of its people (Andrew & Masozera. 2010). However, over the past 45 years, the CND’s forests have been depleted and degraded, primarily through land conversion for agriculture and over harvesting of fuelwood. Since 1962 VNP has lost nearly half of its forest; NNP has lost more than 13%, mainly from catastrophic wildfire; GMNP has lost 95% (Weber, Masozera, & Masozera, 2005). Currently 17.6% of Rwanda is forested and only 1.6% of this is primary forest (FAO 2017) - the most carbon dense form of forest – which is found only within the CND. The remaining forest fragments outside of national parks are too small and functionally inadequate to provide the regulating, provisioning and supporting services that are essential for vulnerable communities in the CND. Climate change is now further degrading Rwanda’s fragmented forests by changing their species composition, structure, functional processes, and disturbance regimes and, as a result, is diminishing the ecosystem services these forests provide (FAO 2017) to vulnerable communities. The resilience of forests, i.e., their ability to withstand environmental and climatic shocks, is directly related to their size and connectivity. Climate change is therefore endangering the forest ecosystems and landscapes that are critical for building climate resilience for the 2.3 million people in the CND region. Most of the people in the CND are smallholder farmers living on steep slopes without access to irrigation. Their adaptive capacity is low because their crop yields and livelihoods are vulnerable to rainfall variability and because high population density severely limits their options for relocation in the event of disaster. This is particularly true for women who, until very recently, had fewer land rights than men. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events due to climate change – combined with forest loss and degradation - is increasing the loss of lives and property from landslides (Bizimana & Somnez 2015, Nsengiyumva et al. 2018). The CND is the part of Rwanda most vulnerable to floods and landslides (MIDIMAR 2012), and the risk is now escalating due to climate change. For example, a dramatic increase in heavy rains and landslides occurred from 2000-2018 that affected more than 30,000 people in the CND, killing at least 502 and destroying homes of more than 29,750 people. Twenty-nine of these landslides dammed rivers, resulting in loss of fertile soils and pollution of rivers with agrochemicals. The CND loses an average of 1.5 million tons of fertile soil per year from heavy rainfall due to climate change, landslides and erosion (Nsengiyumva et al. 2018).The risk of this damage is expected to increase with climate change unless actions are taken to decrease vulnerability of CND forests and communitiesVJ. GHG emissions profile: Forestry and land use make a dominant contribution to Rwanda’s GHG emissions trends. Under the UNFCCC business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the country will transition from negative emissions into net emissions during 2025-2030, reaching 340.2 GgCO2eq. However, the estimated potential cumulative impact of the Government’s proposed mitigation measures could result in a reduction of national greenhouse gas emissions to approximately 22% below the BAU scenario by 2030, in large part by increasing forest cover to 30% by 2020 (from approximately 17.6% in 2010) and reducing woody biomass to 50% of national energy consumption by 2020 (Rwanda Third National Communication Report to the UNFCCC 2018). Key activities include developing agroforestry for sustainable agriculture, promoting afforestation, forest restoration, forest rehabilitation and improving management of degraded forest ecosystems, as well as efficient wood conversion and sustainable biomass energy. These priority actions are the focus of the programme proposed here. National priorities and ownership: Rwanda has positioned itself to be a global leader in green growth and climate change adaptation. The government has invested significantly in developing an institutional and policy-enabling environment for climate change adaptation through both national and sectoral development strategies, including: Vision 2020 (published in 2000 and revised in 2010); National Adaptation Plan (2006); National Strategy for Community Development and Local Economic Development (2013–2018); Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2013–2018; Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy: National

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Strategy for Climate Change and Low Carbon Development (2011); Environmental and Climate Sub-Sector Strategic Plan (2013/14 2017/18); Water Resources Management Sub-Sector Strategic Plan (2011-2015); Water, Climate and Development Program (2013); National Decentralization Policy (2012); National Land Use and Development Master Plan currently under revision; Strategic Plan for the Transformation Agriculture in Rwanda (2009); National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (2015); Forest Investment Program for Rwanda; National Forestry Policy (2018); and individual District Development Plans and Integrated Development Program (IDP) Village Model. Causes and barriers: The GoR understands the importance of the country’s forests for GHG removals. The government also understands that ecosystem services from forests are critical to the welfare of its people and to agricultural productivity, especially in the CND. The GoR is strongly committed to achieving climate resilience and has set a target of achieving 30% forest cover by 2020. Despite these commitments and achievements, various barriers still prevent Rwanda from achieving the preferred long-term solution of resilient forest ecosystems and resilient livelihoods. The key barriers that need to be overcome include both forest resilience barriers and social barriers. Forest Resilience Barriers: Although the GoR has identified forest restoration as essential to achieving the objectives of the country’s climate change resilience strategy, a technical barrier remains. There is a need to identify and target restoration efforts at sufficient scales to sustain critical ecosystem services given current and expected future climate change impacts. For example, many local government agency staff and community members have limited technical understanding or awareness of the complex interactions between forest structure and functions, climate change, and the provision of services such as capturing and storing water, preventing soil erosion, pollination, and carbon sequestration. Consequently, costly. but urgently needed forest restoration efforts, including restoration of degraded natural forests within protected areas, must compete with other important government programs (e.g., education, human health and agriculture) for limited resources and are not receiving the resources needed. Much greater investment in forest restoration is needed to achieve greater climate resilience of forest function and sustained delivery of ecosystem services.

(1) There is insufficient availability and integration of accurate data on changes in forest cover and forest type at relevant spatial and temporal scales and insufficient capacity for spatial analysis and integrated modeling of climate and development scenarios and trade-offs to inform integrated land use planning and management, especially from the perspective of EbA to climate change. The cumulative result is insufficient mainstreaming of climate change adaptation actions into land use planning and management at national, regional, district, and community levels. Consequently, existing forests are not being managed for climate resilience, severely reducing the ecosystem services on which vulnerable communities depend.

(2) Climate change – i.e., changes in the timing of seasonal precipitation, increased extreme rainfall events and droughts - is responsible for a series of cascading effects that negatively impact the physical structure and functioning of forests, substantially reducing critical ecosystem services and ultimately diminishing the resilience of vulnerable communities. More intense and prolonged droughts significantly increase the vulnerability of forests to catastrophic fire, further degrading the integrity of remaining forests. For example, during prolonged droughts, wild honey collection, a traditionally important activity, has caused catastrophic forest fires, further degrading the integrity of remaining forests. The natural forests that burn are susceptible to invasion of often non-native plants (e.g., ferns) that dramatically inhibit natural forest recovery processes. If burned areas don’t recover to forest, this further dries out the forest, creating negative feedback loops that increase the risk of more fires, insect damage and soil erosion. Warmer temperatures are decoupling the relationship between insects and their pollination of flowering plants. Pollination is an ecosystem service provided by natural forests that positively benefits adjacent agricultural production. As forests and associated pollination services decline, smallholder agricultural production, and associated livelihoods, in adjacent areas will be negatively impacted. In addition, as already limited forests decline from these drought-associated impacts, during extreme rainfall events, adjacent communities are increasingly at risk from flooding, landslides and soil erosion. Loss of soil fertility through drought and flooding on steep slopes, forces farmers to convert more forests to farmland in order to maintain crop yields. To disrupt the cascading impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities, interventions must be designed to both manage existing forests for climate resilience and to restore natural and protective (plantation) forests.

Social Barriers: (3) Women, who are mostly responsible for firewood collection, do not have the time and are not adequately

empowered to provide input to local-level decision making, which decreases knowledge, and ultimately, resilience of communities.

(4) Insufficient representation of communities in land use planning leads to top down land management decisions that are difficult to implement and enforce.

INGB.2. Programme/Programme description (max. 3 pages) The goal of the programme on Building Resilience of Vulnerable Communities to Climate Variability in Rwanda’s Congo Nile Divide Through Forest and Landscape Restoration is to increase climate resilience of vulnerable rural communities in the CND by

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building capacity for integrated landscape planning and management through forest and landscape restoration and reducing demand for fuelwood. The programme has three strategic interventions directly targeting vulnerabilities within climate impact chains. Component (1) Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation into Integrated Land Use Planning and Management will lead to enhanced adaptive capacity of both ecosystems and rural populations, by strengthening coordination among sectors and integrating climate resilience considerations into planning and development. Component (2) Landscape Management and Restoration will implement high priority actions to enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities by increasing the extent and integrity of forest ecosystems and landscapes and by reducing demand for wood fuel. As an additional benefit, greenhouse gas emission savings in the form of carbon sequestration (restoration of natural forests, agroforestry and fuel efficient cookstoves under component (2) are expected. Component (3) will focus on Project Management, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E). Component 1: Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation into Integrated Land Use Planning (Barriers 1,2) There is an urgent need for more effective collaboration among government agencies, civil society and the private sector, to balance difficult yet inevitable land use trade-offs that will have profound impacts on the climate resilience of both nature and people. The GoR recognises that a piecemeal approach to decision making has exacerbated competition over scarce land resources and reduced the adaptive capacity of both ecosystems and rural populations. Rwanda’s Baseline Climate Change Vulnerability Index (2015) recommends establishing a multi-ministry technical climate resilience coordinating committee, including NGOs. In 2017 the MoE developed the Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR), to focus on three cross-cutting priorities to achieve climate change resilience: (a) technical capacity building and strengthening institutional coordination; (b) integrated land use and spatial planning; and (c) climate services and disaster risk management. The SPCR is a key step towards ensuring inter-ministerial and multi-sectoral collaboration and integration of climate resilience considerations into development plans and actions. However, there remains a need to comprehensively implement the strategy and mainstream climate change adaptation at the sub-national level, engaging a diverse set of actors and sectors and empowering women to provide input to decision making at district and community levels. This programme component will address themes (a) and (b) of the SPCR. Subcomponent 1.1: Mainstreaming climate adaptation into district, regional and national land use planning frameworks The GoR is completing a National Land Use Master Plan (NLUMP 2019) to guide land use planning and regulate permitting processes. At district and community levels, forest conversion to agriculture continues and development projects are being approved without sufficient knowledge of climate change risks or the value of forests for EbA. This subcomponent will:

• Complete a comprehensive stakeholder mapping and analysis process for the CND, building on previous processes. • Develop and systematically implement a program to synthesize evidence and disseminate information among ministries,

district governments, local NGOS and communities on the value of forests and forest ecosystems for increasing resilience of local communities.

• Create an inter-agency task force, chaired by the Ministry of Environment, including stakeholders from key government agencies, e.g., MoE, METEO, RWFA, RLMUA, MINECOFIN, MINAGRI, MINEMA, MININFRA and the University of Rwanda, to institutionalize regular cross-sectoral planning meetings to review and integrate sectoral plans. The task force will be championed by the Minister of Environment, the CEO of the Rwanda Development Board and the Minister of Agriculture.

• Engage local land use experts and community members, especially women, in the CND in reviewing, interpreting and updating the NLUMP, to build local support, while ensuring the plan accounts for current and future climate risks.

• Review and update management plans for NNP, GMNP, VNP to explicitly consider climate change adaptation, maximise EbA benefits and enhance connectivity among protected areas.

• Develop an Integrated Land-use Plan for Resilient Livelihoods and Ecosystems in the CND that identifies, analyses and reconciles the cross-sectoral (e.g., tourism, environment, forestry, food production, cash crops for export) trade-offs necessary to sustain forest ecosystem functions, deliver critical ecosystem services and improve community livelihoods.

Subcomponent 1.2: Enhance capacity for spatial planning and modelling Within Rwanda, forest-related data, particularly spatial data, is limited in scope and is generally outdated (FAO 2017). Consequently, the current state and trends of Rwanda’s forests are not well understood. Efforts to improve the situation through individual studies have been valuable but have not led to systematic increases in spatial information on forest cover trends and resilience. To enable the task force (Subcomponent 1.1) to make informed land use decisions that consider both spatial attributes and local context, activities in this subcomponent will:

• Update forest cover data in different ecological zones and forest types using satellite imagery, field work and remote sensing techniques and map ecosystem service values associated with natural forests and forest landscapes;

• Develop capacity within the University of Rwanda and the MoE to use remote sensing, ecosystem service modelling and spatial planning tools (e.g., Marxan, InVEST, RIOS, SWAT).to incorporate climate risks into development plans.

Component 2: Forest Landscape Management and Restoration (Barrier 3) The GoR has prioritised forest management and restoration – including natural forests in protected areas - as a key component of climate change adaptation strategies for the CND landscape (ROAM 2014). Yet, despite this commitment, management and restoration activities are not being implemented at the scale required to significantly improve forest climate resilience. Many

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previous forest landscape restoration activities used exotic species, e.g., Eucalyptus and mono-specific plantations which are vulnerable to diseases and pests with increasing temperature. In this component, targeted interventions will integrate climate change adaptation into natural forest management, restoration and afforestation to enhance ecosystem services needed for climate resilience of vulnerable communities. It will also increase on-farm trees to reduce soil and crop loss from climate change induced flooding and landslides, thereby reducing pressure for conversion of forest to agriculture. By purposefully engaging women in these activities and by reducing wood fuel consumption through the provision of fuel efficient cookstoves, we are targeting the most vunerable individuals, households, and communities. Subcomponent 2.1: Mainstreaming adaptation into forest management to ensure natural forest ecosystem resilience and continued provision of critical ecosystem services Rwanda’s only remaining montane forests - in NNP, GMNP and VNP in the CND – provide critical ecosystem services. However, these forests are being degraded by a cycle of cascading climate change impacts that ultimately affect the most vulnerable communities. Increasing droughts caused by climate change are intensifying drying of vegetation and increasing risk that forest fires become catastrophic fires, e.g., the catastrophic fire in NNP during the 1997 drought led to loss of 13% of the Park’s natural forest. This subcomponent focuses on activities aimed at building the resilience of forests to climate change and at reducing the risk of catastrophic fires:

• Build capacity of RDB and national park managers to manage forests for climate resilience, i.e., promoting forest connectivity, fire prevention and fire management.

• Implement a “fire wise” outreach and awareness program for communities surrounding natural forests to reduce the incidence of human-caused fires, especially from illegal honey harvesting in forests.

• Promote modern beekeeping among 4000 farmers surrounding the three CND national parks to reduce fire risk. Focus particularly on women and youth, using approaches proven by WCS promote gender equity and increase community support for forest conservation and community resilience.

Subcomponent. 2.2 Restoration of natural forest in degraded ecosystems NNP contains the largest block of natural montane forest in Rwanda and plays an essential role in capturing and creating rainfall to support rainfed agriculture (Seimon 2012). Native tropical forests are more effective at capturing and storing water than are invaded or plantation forests (Takahashi et al. 2011). In NNP, climate change already has altered species composition and fire regimes, reducing EbA value and carbon sequestration. NNP has lost 13% of its natural forest from wildfires since 1997 and previously burned areas are more susceptible to drying and recurring fires. In this subcomponent, approximately 6,800 ha of natural forest in NNP will be restored for forest resilience, with co-benefits of sequestering an additional 142.958 t CO2eq during the 5-year project including:

• Clearing ferns to facilitate recolonization by forest pioneer species and re-establish the conditions for natural forest regeneration. Fern clearing operations have been successfully demonstrated on a small scale, but will be dramatically scaled up to achieve restoration on a scale that will sustain forest function and ecosystem services.

• Restoration of natural forest in critical areas, including the NNP buffer zone and the highland corridor to GMNP, targeting areas that optimize benefits of increased connectivity among forest fragments and preventing flash floods and landslides to farms on steep slopes. In these areas, parts of forest reserves have been converted to agricultural land, contributing to loss of forest function and diminished ecosystem services. A participatory approach will be used to engage community members, including women, to evaluate options for bringing critical parts of the landscape into a forest restoration programme, building on the World Bank LAFREC project in GMNP.

Subcomponent 2.3: Agroforestry Increasing the extent of protective forests and enhancing and restoring forest plantations are key steps to restoring ecosystem function and services identified in the National Forest Policy Report (NFPR 2017), especially (i) reducing the risk of flooding, landslides and soil erosion from extreme climate events, (ii) increasing long-term supply of woodfuel resources (the energy source for 99% of Rwandans) and providing 105,664 tCO2eq over 5 years. Together with the fuel efficient cookstoves in subcomponent 2.4, the trees will provide a sustainable source of wood for cooking and will reduce the amount of time women spend collecting fuelwood, and enable them to participate in training and awareness activities.

• Establish 13,000 ha of protective forests on slopes >55%, i.e., 50% of the potentially available area for afforestation identified by the NFPR 2017 for resilience to extreme climate events and to provide. 105,664 tCO2eq over 5 years. This is a feasible target, as the potentially available area is 26,000 ha and we are only targeting half of that. This land is a mixture of public lands, private lands (community cooperatives), and public private partnerships (forest plantations). Many existing plantations are degraded because of poor germplasm and poor technical practices. Consultation meetings have already been conducted with community cooperatives and these will be continued and expanded during the PPF phase. Restoration will be undertaken on both public and private land and agreements will be developed with landowners who are willing to participate. These lands are not currently used for food production.

• • Collaboratively develop, provide training and implement on-farm afforestation plans for 187,000 smallholder farmers

(13,700 ha), particularly targeting women and youth (145,600 tCO2eq over 5 years).

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Subcomponent 2.4: Reducing deforestation and empowering women through adoption of fuel efficient cookstoves Currently 93% of Rwandans cook with firewood (EICV, 2018). Traditional biomass cooking is unsustainable and unhealthy. Cooking with traditional methods is causing deforestation and forest degradation, including reducing the extent and integrity of natural forests.. Moreover, in rural areas, women and children spend three hours per day collecting fuelwood and women spend an additional three hours per day preparing fuel and cooking. Each year 5,500 people die in Rwanda from household air pollution. The Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA) promotes Energy Efficient Stoves (EES), with a target standard for efficiency and emissions of Tier 3 or Tier 4 stoves (ISO standards, Tiers 0-5, from least to most efficient). Currently only Tier 1 and Tier 2 stoves are manufactured in the CND. WCS has been successful promoting use of Canarumwe stoves around NNP, with adoption by 12,701 rural households (56.43% women), resulting in a 60% reduction in wood consumption by households and improved household health. Canarumwe stoves can be manufactured by community cooperatives and are affordable. This subcomponent targets adoption of improved Canarumwe stoves by 34,000 smallholder households (the same households targeted for on farm tree planting) to reduce the national wood fuel deficit and secure 255,000 tCO2eq of avoided emissions (Wilson et al. 2016) over 5 years:

• Analyse alternative options for providing cooking energy, e.g., Tier 3 or Tier 4 cookstoves through improved Canarumwe stoves or acquisition of Tier 3 or Tier 4 stoves or bio-gas cookers from Rwandan suppliers (during the Project Preparation Phase). This analysis will include consideration of the financial structure associated with each alternative and will ensure the selected alternative complies with MoE’s accreditation for public projects;

• Local stakeholder consultations; • Intensive promotion campaign to stimulate adoption; • Training and equipping local production teams to produce Tier 3 EE and technicians to install EES in households.

Component 3: M&E The programme will have a dedicated M&E system for tracking project inputs, activities, outputs and impacts across all components. Component 3 will provide necessary training, facilities, and operating costs to establish an M&E system for the programme. Reports will be prepared, updated and submitted to the GCF annually. An interim and a final evaluation will assess progress in achieving the programme objectives. The M&E system will focus strongly on measuring resilience based on the GoR’s Climate Vulnerability Indicators. During the PPF phase, we will develop formal commitments through MOUs among the relevant ministries and during the programme we will build capacity of REMA to continue to implement and use the information from the system to inform development and land use decisions. Project Management The programme will have a lean project management structure, in particular covering overall project management costs associated with programme execution, financial management, procurement and safeguards. The MoE will provide programme oversight, executing according to GCF guidelines for nationally executed programmes. MoE will be accountable to GCF for disbursement of funds and achieving programme objectives, according to the approved work plan. A national multi-sectoral Programme Steering Committee will be formed, chaired by MoE, to oversee programme implementatio National Leadership The GoR is well known for the efficient and effective use of external funds and for high levels of good governance. MoE, as an accredited entity has a reliable track record in implementing climate change projects, including a $33.2M Green Climate Fund investment. Experience of the Execution Entity and Implementation Arrangements The programme execution arrangements are described in Annex 3. The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) will serve as Executing Entity (EE) and will establish a Programme Management Unit (PMU). For more than 120 years, WCS has been one of the world’s leading conservation organisations and currently works to conserve and sustainably manage more than 5 million km2 of wild landscapes worldwide. WCS operates more than 500 field conservation programmes in 65 countries. It has worked to protect biodiversity and empower governments, civil society, and communities to improve natural resource management. WCS operates the largest and longest standing field conservation program in Africa and has extensive experience working with governments, international partners and local communities to mainstream climate resilience and green development strategies and approaches; implementing sustainable landscape planning and management; and improving the wellbeing of local people. Currently WCS works in 15 African countries and has worked in Rwanda for 30 years. WCS has a demonstrated track record in implementing projects of this size and scale, e.g., a US AID-funded USD 35M biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management project in the Boma-Jongle landscape in South Sudan; and a US AID-funded USD 58M regional project on Central Africa forest conservation and livelihood improvement. Key Financial and Operational Risks

Risk Factor Level of Risk

Mitigation Measure

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Environmental & Social Safeguard risks from adaptation of crop farming systems, forest management & restoration

Medium Risks are site-specific, few, largely reversible & readily mitigated

Different government entities &/or sectors may not be willing to integrate planning priorities

Low The MoE will chair the task force to be co-chaired by MoE, RDB and MINAGRI will ensure government buy in; stakeholder engagement workshops & open communication for transparency

It may not be possible to maintain sustainable financing for parks or implement profitable, sustainable businesses

Medium GoR commitment is high, as are opportunities to learn from other successful demonstrations (e.g., restoration & sustainable financing of Akagera NP & scaling & marketing beekeeping cooperatives in Ethiopia)

Competing land uses & opportunity costs may limit opportunities for implementation of restoration & afforestation

Medium Implement participatory approaches, community decision making & create incentives

Low capacity in government agencies for data synthesis & management of spatial data

Low Government has invested in creating a pipeline of people with requisite skills through new university programs

Please provide a brief overview of the key financial and operational risks and any mitigation measures identified at this stage. B.3. Expected programme results aligned with the GCF investment criteria (max. 3 pages) Climate impact potential Our programme, when fully implemented, will provide direct benefits to increase resilience of more than 300,000 people in the most vulnerable communities in the CND and will generate mitigation co-benefits by delivering sequestration of around 543,600 t CO2 eq during the 5-year programme period and 2M t CO2 by 2050, which is about 42% of the 12M tCO2 increase in sequestration capacity the government wants to deliver. This will help to keep Rwanda in negative emissions through 2050. While the cost of the carbon benefits may seem high, this is primarily an adaptation project and the cost of restoring natural forest structure, function and ecosystem services is very high, in comparison with planting non-native trees and the carbon benefits are co-benefits, not the primary impact. The programme will directly contribute to two results areas of the GCF’s paradigm shift objective: (i) increased resilience of ecosystems and ecosystem services and (ii) increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable people, communities and regions . The programme’s contribution to these areas is illustrated by the following indicators: • 300,000 of the most vulnerable residents of the CND have increased awareness of climate threats and risk reduction measures; • 300,000 of the most vulnerable residents of the CND will have increased climate resilience and adaptive capacity through

reduced exposure to flash floods, landslides, and soil erosion which will also increase their crop productivity (direct beneficiaries 56% female);

• 5,090,610 t CO2eq will be sequestered by 2050. • 103,200 ha of critical intact natural forests will be under improved management for climate resilience and 6870 ha of degraded

natural forests will be restored, accounting for an estimated total of 143,000 t CO2eq; • 13,000 ha of areas of protective forests and plantations will be established on slopes >55%, focusing on areas not currently

planted in crops, accounting for an estimated total of 145,600 t CO2eq during the 5-year project period; • 187,000 of the most vulnerable smallholder farmers, including women-headed households in the CND will have increased

resilience of agricultural production and livelihoods through increasing on-farm tree cover by an additional 2% on 13,700 ha to reduce soil erosion and landslides from extreme climate events and access to low-emission energy source (255,000 t CO2eq of avoided emissions during the 5-year project period). This will be achieved through on farm afforestation on 13,700 ha of smallholder farms to increase on-farm tree cover by an additional 2% (105,654 t CO2eq during the 5-year project period) and provide fuel efficient stoves to increase availability of sustainable sources of woodfuel while also reducing demand, accounting for an estimated total of 255,000 t CO2eq of avoided emissions over 5 years;

• 2460 of these community members will be trained to manage forests for climate resilience and in forest restoration. We will establish linkages for these beneficiaries to ongoing restoration employment opportunities created with communities through other GoR and private sector programmes;

• 1,370,000 indirect beneficiaries will receive co-benefits from improved and more sustained ecosystem services, including decreased sedimentation leading to improved water quality downstream and increased hydropower generation. This helps Rwanda produce cleaner hydropower energy at lower cost to make it preferable to other more detrimental energy sources;

• Institutional and regulatory systems to promote climate resilience will be strengthened; Several government institutions and ministries will benefit from targeted capacity building in forest monitoring using satellite imagery and remote sensing techniques and spatial planning and analysis methods, e.g., MoE, REMA, RDB, MINILAF, MINAGRI, University of Rwanda.

Paradigm Shift Potential Innovation

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The programme will introduce innovative technologies and methods for monitoring the status and trends of forests (and other land cover land use types) using high resolution satellite imagery (to be provided by Planet), combined with new remote sensing techniques and analytical methods developed by a Rwandan Ph.D. student at Clark University in Boston, supported by a NASA fellowship, and with artificial intelligence algorithms developed by Skytruth. Accurate measurement of forest cover and forest type is notoriously difficult in high relief terrain, such as in the CND and throughout Rwanda and lack of access to and capacity to apply these new methods has limited forest monitoring in Rwanda. Potential for scaling-up and replication Integrated Land Use and Spatial Planning among sectors and across spatial and temporal scales represents a radical shift away from business as usual in the CND and in Rwanda nationally: Piecemeal decisions and an ad hoc assemblage of sector by sector, isolated projects, will be replaced with a holistic, evidence-based approach to planning and development, enabling systematic, multi-sector analysis of land use tradeoffs. In the past, development projects and land use decisions in the CND have been considered in isolation and spatial attributes, local contexts and cross-sectoral opportunities, constraints and impacts have been neglected. In addition, the value of forests and other ecosystems for EbA have not been explicitly considered, which has significantly limited the ability to transition to a coherent, efficient and effective transformation pathway to a climate and disaster resilient future. In particular, Component 1 will address these constraints very explicitly. One important output in this context will be the Land-use Plan for Resilient Livelihoods and Ecosystems in the CND. Scaling-up The programme approach will demonstrate local and regional benefits in terms of effectiveness and efficiency and will set the foundation for replication in other regions within Rwanda beyond the CND and at a national scale with government support, as well as in other natural resource-dependent African countries. The project will finance study tours of other district governments, community members and officials from other African countries to the CND to identify the necessary steps to replicate the approach and to provide space for dialogue and knowledge sharing. The Land-Use Plan for Resilient Livelihoods and Ecosystems in the CND and the Climate Resilient management plans for NNP, GMNP and VNP provide excellent examples and opportunities for replication in other countries and regions. In this way, the programme will directly contribute to scaling-up climate-resilient approaches throughout Rwanda and elsewhere in Africa. Potential for knowledge and learning Every component of this project includes activities aimed at strengthening knowledge and institutional learning. Component 1 Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation into Integrated Land Use Planning will invest in new technologies and will improve the national and district planning, scenario analysis and monitoring capacities. Component 2 Landscape Restoration will invest in best practices in forest management and restoration and in energy, efficient cook stove technologies. Both of these components will use inclusive approaches and will contribute to collective learning processes in national and local government and among vulnerable communities. The capacity of the ultimate beneficiaries will be built with respect to climate and disaster-resilient planning and adoption of climate and disaster-smart practices and technologies. Component 2 will also increase the capacity of national and local resource managers for sustainable forest management. Component 3 will carry out monitoring and evaluation and will share the results and recommendations with all districts to improve learning processes. Contribution to the creation of an enabling environment The Task Force in Component 1 will create a single, first point of contact for all sectors planning development and investments in the CND and will ensure that planning for climate resilience is addressed. By establishing a mechanism for coordination and harmonization, it will radically improve the current conditions for public and private interventions and will establish partnerships that go beyond the this programme. One main output of component 1 would be an innovative, scientifically credible system for monitoring trends in forest cover and forest types at multiple scales. This monitoring system and the capacity to implement it will be extended nationwide, where it can improve land use decisions across the country. Contribution to the regulatory framework and policies The programme will finance the development of the Integrated Land-use Plan for Resilient Livelihoods and Ecosystems in the CND. The plan will be adopted by all 10 districts as a framework for reconciling land use conflicts, guide development decisions and climate change adaptation. It will update the National Land Use Master Plan, ensuring it is accurate and relevant to local contexts in all 10 districts within the CND. Further, the programme will update the management plans for all three national parks in the CND to explicitly consider climate change adaptation and maximize EbA benefits. As a result of these activities, the effectiveness and efficiency of climate-resilient planning and investments will be more sustainable. Sustainable Development Potential Environmental co-benefits Overall, the project will promote an ecosystem-based approach to forest protection, and will enhance the extent and resilience of forest ecosystems and species, including connecting currently isolated forest fragments. Through these approaches, forest ecosystems will be protected, restored and rehabilitated, both enhancing biodiversity and reducing key threats, while increasing the provision of critical ecosystem services.

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Social and economic co-benefits The programme will enable the transition to more climate resilient and productive livelihood models and will empower the rural poor in the CND, significantly reducing impacts from extreme weather events (heavy rain, flash floods, landslides) and increasing their potential for improved wellbeing. It will introduce a number of livelihood measures that are adapted to the changing environment of the CND and will increase farmers’ incomes. By increasing modern beekeeping practices, not only will fire risk be reduced, farmers’ income from honey production - especially women - will increase significantly (USD350 per hive per year), For example, increasing crop yield, through reducing loss of yield from landslides and soil erosion increases farmers’ incomes. By providing access to improved cook stoves, the health and well-being of smallholder farm households, especially women, who are responsible for most of the cooking will be improved and their access to economic opportunities will be increased because they will spend significantly less time collecting firewood. Government leadership The GoR is well known for efficient and effective use of external funds, due to the high levels of good governance. The OECD rated Rwanda as one of the countries that uses aid most effectively and Rwanda is on course to achieve the SDGs. The Government of Rwanda has demonstrated comprehensive country ownership of, and capacity to implement, a funded programme. MoE is the Ministry responsible for ensuring sustainable management and rational use of natural resources. It is responsible for the development of policies, strategies and programmes as well as the formulation of regulations and mobilizing resources for the development of the sector. The Ministry is also responsible for monitoring and evaluation the implementation of environment, climate change and natural resources management at the national level. MoE as an accredited entity has a reliable track record in implementing climate change programmes. The Ministry is currently managing USD 10 million from the Adaptation Fund to implement the Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in North West Rwanda through Community Based Adaptation Programme. MoE also oversees a number of other climate programmes including: an early warning system programme (funded by LDCF), the Landscape Approach to Forest Restoration and Conservation (LAFREC) programme (funded by GEF/World Bank), and the “Building resilience of communities living in degraded forests, savannahs and wetlands of Rwanda through an ecosystem management approach” programme (funded by LDCF).The Gicumbi-GCF Programme will serve as reference for the current programme. Needs of recipients Because of high population density, high relief terrain and dependence on rain fed agriculture the residents of the CND are highly vulnerable to climate change, as described in section B1, including exposure to flash floods, landslides and soil erosion. These climate hazards will have severe impacts on forest ecosystems and on rural livelihoods. Efficiency and Effectiveness The financial instrument chosen for this project is grant financing. The high level of concessionality reflects the public good character of the investments to be made by the project, Rwanda’s status as an LDC and its high vulnerability to climate change. The project is non-revenue generating. Most expenditures relate to creating public goods through forest and landscape restoration or capacity building of public institutions. No excess subsidy will be provided to the private sector and no private sector investors will be crowded out by these types of investments. | B.4. Engagement among the NDA, AE, and/or other relevant stakeholders in the country (max ½ page) The proposed programme is being designed by MoE and WCS, in close collaboration with REMA (the NDA) and with multiple ministries and agencies within the Government of Rwanda (e.g., FONERWA, RWFA, RLMUA, RDB) and consultation with other stakeholders, including district governments, civil society organizations (farmer associations, IUCN, Heifer, CIAT, ARCOS,) and the private sector (Inyenyeri), in formulating this concept. A formal stakeholder consultation meeting took place in May 2017. Stakeholders will be further engaged in the process of feasibility studies (e.g., environmental and social impact assessment, economic and financial analysis, legal implication assessment and gender aspects of the programme) and full proposal development. C. Indicative Financing/Cost Information (max. 3 pages) C.1. Financing by components (max ½ page)

Please provide an estimate of the total cost per component/output and disaggregate by source of financing. Component/Output Indicative cost

(Million USD) GCF financing Co-financing Amount (Million USD)

Financial Instrument

Amount (Million USD)

Financial Instrument

Name of Institutions

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Component 1: Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation into Integrated Land Use Planning Subcomponent 1.1 Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation into District, Regional & Nat. Planning Frameworks Subcomponent 1.2 Enhance Capacity for Spatial Planning & Modeling

Total Comp 1 3.1 m Subcomponent 1.1 0.8 m Subcomponent 1.2 2.3 m

2.3 m Grant 0.8 m In Kind Tentative Skytruth Planet

Component 2: Landscape Management and Restoration Subcomponent 2.1 Mainstreaming Adaptation into Forest Management Subcomponent 2.2 Restoration of Natural Forest Subcomponent 2.3 Agroforestry Subcomponent 2.4 Reducing Deforestation & Fuel-Efficient Cook stoves

Total Comp 2 40.3 m Subcomponent 2.1 2.6 m Subcomponent 2.2 12.2 m Subcomponent 2.3 24.6 m Subcomponent 2.4 0.9 m

31.1 m Subcomponent 2.1 2.6 m 2.2. 12.2 m 2.3. 15.4 m 2.4 0.9 m

Grant 9.2 m In Kind Rwanda Water & Forestry Authority (Sebeya Landscape Restoration Project ($5M) Heifer (tree planting on smallholder farms $4.2M)

Component 3: M&E

1.8 m 1.8 m Grant

Project Mgt Costs (PMC)

3.2 m 3.2 m Grant

Indicative total cost (USD)

48.4 m 38.4 m 10 m

C.2. Justification of GCF funding request (max.1 page)

Rwanda is classified by the U.N. as a Least Developed Country and lacks sufficient public financial resources to implement its climate change and resilient green development objectives. GDP growth rate in Rwanda averaged 2.68 % per year from 2000-2018, but rising temperatures and extreme climate events, such as flooding and landslides are impacting the country’s agriculture, ecosystems, water, human health and energy. Rwanda’s diverse ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to increased temperature associated increased fire risks, as well as heavy rainfall events, which exacerbate soil erosion and land degradation, impact tourism, livelihoods of the rural poor and threaten biodiversity. Rwanda remains a poor country with a 2017 GDP per capita estimate of $765 (164th in the world). This programme will allow Rwanda to pursue its aspirations under its National Forest Policy and Climate Resilient Green Economy plans for reversing trends of high deforestation. It also allows for demonstration of sustainable reforestation models and reductions in demand for woodfuel. Rwanda has made an impressive commitment to using forests and forest protection as part of its primary strategy to mitigate the impacts from CC, and to also provide co-benefits of biodiversity

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conservation and livelihood improvements, but needs support to realize these goals while it also aims to take advantage of other financing opportunities. Currently there are no alternative funding options of the scale needed to secure Rwanda’s priority forests to reduce vulnerability of rural communities to climate risks. Other sources of multilateral and bilateral aid are contributing to the protected area system and the RGC contributes core salary and running costs. International NGOs such as CI, WWF and WCS also raise funds from private sources to contribute to the protection of biodiversity. MoE is requesting grant funding for this programme due to Rwanda’s status as an LDC, insufficient alternative finance options and because the proposed activities will provide a public good on which the livelihoods of many of Rwanda’s rural poor depend. The grant mechanism will be passed on by MoE to WCS to deliver the proposed programme activities. Although the project cost may appear high, the cost of restoring natural forest for providing both EbA and mitigation co-benefits is significantly greater than the cost of simply planting trees for mitigation. Restoration of natural forest in Rwanda is essential for sustaining the critical ecosystem services on which vulnerable rural communities and the national economy depend. C.3. Sustainability and replicability of the programme (exit strategy) (max. 1 page) The programme will create (i) conditions for long-term climate resilience of landscape management in the CND of Rwanda and (ii) sustainability of the project’s impacts. This includes creating an enabling institutional environment, including a holistic approach to incorporating climate resilience thinking into evaluating and reducing land-use tradeoffs, rather than making decisions independently, sector by sector and project by project. The programme design supports a systemic increase in the resilience of forests and land management, institutions and stakeholders. The main features of the exit strategy are therefore: (i) institutional structures, (ii) behavioral change, and (iii) integration into national monitoring and reporting. Institutional structures Mechanisms and capacities will be established and strengthened that are envisioned to be fully mainstreamed into regular government processes and procedures. The commitment to mainstreaming climate change adaptation already is recognized in the GoR’s Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience. This programme will create the structures, e.g., the Task Force, and mechanisms, e.g., the Integrated Land Use Planning and Management. Further, the M&E and the PMU will be integrated into government structure, to ensure its functions continue beyond the lifespan of this programme. Behavioral change The proposed programme will induce a behavioral change of key actors essential for a transformation to a climate resilient pathway in the CND region and the country of Rwanda as a whole: policy makers, academia, national resource managers and farmers. Awareness will be raised and capacity will be built in each of these groups. They will better understand (i) the political and socio-economic necessity of increasing climate resilience of development planning and investments; and (ii) the specific entry points for fostering climate resilient development. Each group will be empowered to put those entry points into practice. For policy makers, it will affect the way they plan and evaluate land use and sectoral trade offs (Subcomponent 1.2. The capacity development of protected area managers on climate resilience will have long lasting impacts on the quality and scale of land management and will ensure that Rwanda’s ecotourism sector continues to thrive. For farmers the programme will reduce risks from landslides and soil erosion, positively affecting crop yield. In addition, by combining on farm tree planting with fuel efficient wood stoves, the programme will incentivize farmers to manage fuelwood sustainably. Integration into national monitoring and reporting The programme will build and institutionalize the capacity of the government to use high resolution satellite imagery and remote sensing techniques to monitor the status and trends of forests in the CND. The long-term capacity will be ensured through the programme investments to increase this capacity within the University of Rwanda, thereby ensuring an ongoing pipeline of potential government employees with the necessary technical skills. This capacity and these methods will be directly transferred to assess and monitor status and trends for multiple land cover and land use types on a national scale. Building the government’s capacity to map and value forest ecosystems will have long-term impact on the government’s capacity for sustainable development and resilience to climate change. D. Supporting documents submitted (OPTIONAL) XMap indicating the location of the programme/programme

XDiagram of the theory of change

☐Economic and financial model with key assumptions and potential stressed scenarios

☐ Pre-feasibility study

☐Evaluation report of previous programme

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☐Results of environmental and social risk screening

Self-awareness check boxes

Are you aware that the full Funding Proposal and Annexes will require these documents?Yes No ☐ • Feasibility Study • Environmental and social impact assessment or environmental and social management framework • Stakeholder consultations at national and programme level implementation including with indigenous

people if relevant • Gender assessment and action plan • Operations and maintenance plan if relevant • Loan or grant operation manual as appropriate • Co-financing commitment letters

Are you aware that a funding proposal from an accredited entity without a signed AMA will be reviewed but not sent to the Board for consideration? Yes No ☐