Building the Electron Economy

Earth Week

April 21, 2009

Three Problems - 2030

• Peak oil

• Climate change

• Energy equity

We have less than 20 years to solve and address these problems

Oil Production – Reserves

Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005

Ice Cores – Story of Vostok

Vostok Ice Core Data•A near perfect correlation between CO2, temperature, and sea level•For every one ppm CO2, sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global)•Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO2, and reach thermal equilibrium

This is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process, with multiple inputs. A biogeochemical thermostat. Touching one input affects all other inputs, and increases in temperature becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.

Earth Out of Balance

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

Accelerating Change

• Heat storms• Droughts• Storm intensity• Fires / duration• Ice quakes

• Methane release• Sea ice extent• pH of the ocean• Pest migration• Sea level rise

Ecosystem degradation, loss of biodiversity, failure of ecosystem services

One Solution – One Vision

• No petroleum in 2030

• It’s a 12 step program!

• We made a bad decision

• And we need a new vision– A world not built around petrol– A world not built around carbon

Vision the Electron Economy

A Subsystems Approach

• Renewable energy• Distribution systems• Smart energy• Energy efficiency• LEED / green building

• Electric vehicles• Alternative fuels• Batteries / fuel cells• Urban planning• GHG sequestration

Smart energy Smart cities

Smart citizens

Smart policy

A New Energy Economy

• $1 - 2 trillion in solar and wind energy• $1 trillion in a new power grid• $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars

– $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances

• Smart energy for the electron economy – a melding of the Internet and ‘the grid’

• This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!

Building a Solar Economy

• Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy

• 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025

• Solar brings true energy independence from carbon

• It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s

• Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry

Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005

http://www.solarelectricpower.org/

Wind Power – Real Power

IntelliGrid™ - Smart Grid

http://intelligrid.epri.com/

A Real Electric Vehicle

http://www.teslamotors.com/

An Apollo Program?

• We’re building it!

– Vision

– Commitment

– Plan and a process

– To build and support a team

– To make our vision a reality

• We can do this in 20 years! http://apolloalliance.org/

Energy Equity – 5 million jobs

How Much Electricity?Americans drive 8 billion miles a day using 400 million gallons of gasoline VMT = 8 * 10^9

To convert gasoline (VMT) miles to electric vehicle miles traveled (EVMT) - an electric vehicle mile traveled (EVMT) requires 0.25 – 0.3 KwHrs per mile

Multiply 8 * 10^9 miles by 0.3 KwHr per EVMT need ~2.5 billion KwHrs a day

Is that a big number? We use ~ 10 billion KwHrs electricity each day

What if we were 20 to 25% more efficient with industrial, commercial and residential electricity?

We would save 0.25 * ~ 10 * 10^9 KwHrs => ~ 2.5 billion KwHrs saved – each day!

What we are wasting in inefficient use of electricity could become the electromotive force (EMF) for a new transportation system