bulgaria: indicators · 3 bulgaria: indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f real gdp growth % 1.7 2.9 3.0 cpi...
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BULGARIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % 1.7 2.9 3.0
CPI (pa, yoy %) -1.4 0.1 1.0
Budget Balance/GDP* -3.7 -3.3 -2.0
Current Account/GDP 0.9 2.5 1.4
EUR/BGN (eop)
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) N/A N/A N/A
* on a cash basis
1.9558
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
CYPRUS: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % -2.3 1.2 1.6
HICP (pa, yoy %) -0.3 -2.1 -0.4
Budget Balance/GDP* -0.2 -1.3 0.1
Current Account/GDP -5.1 -5.5 -4.5
* ESA 2010
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
ROMANIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % 2.9 3.5 4.1
CPI (pa, yoy %) 1.1 -0.8 0.5
Budget Balance/GDP * -1.9 -1.9 -2.8
Current Account/GDP -0.4 -0.7 -1.0
EUR/RON (eop) 4.40 4.45 4.40
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 1.75 1.75 1.75
* on a cash basis
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
SERBIA: Indicators 2014e 2015f 2016f
Real GDP growth % -1.8 1.0 2.0
CPI (pa, yoy %) 2.1 1.7 3.5
Budget Balance/GDP -6.7 -3.5 -4.6
Current Account/GDP -6.0 -4.3 -4.1
EUR/RSD (eop) 120.96 122.00 124.00
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 8.00 4.50 4.50
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
MSCI
L-T ccy Moody's S&P Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- B+
ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BB+ BBB-
CYPRUS B3 BB- B+
Credit Ratings
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
S&P 500 1880.33 -2.2% -8.0% EUR/USD 1.0904 -0.1% 0.4% UST - 10yr 2.03 0 -23 GOLD #### 0.2% 2.8%
Nikkei 225 16955.57 -1.1% -10.9% GBP/USD 1.4303 0.3% -2.9% Bund-10yr 0.55 1 -8 BRENT CRUDE 29 -1.5% -23.5%
STOXX 600 330.16 0.1% -9.7% USD/JPY 117.22 -0.2% 2.4% JGB - 10yr 0.21 -1 -5 LMEX #### -1.6% -6.7%
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
CESEE MARKETS
SERBIA ROMANIA BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
T/N 290 -1 -13 O/N 0.37 -2 -16 LEONIA -0.09 0 -10
1-week 3.02 1 -17 1-month 0.61 1 -8 1-month -0.03 -1 -19
1-month 3.30 1 -21 3-month 0.95 -1 -7 3-month 0.10 0 -16
3-month 3.52 -1 -31 6-month 1.26 -4 -8 6-month 0.33 0 -20
6-month 3.74 -1 -29 12-month 1.46 -3 -6 12-month 0.80 -1 -18
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 3.60 -2 -6 3Y RON 1.78 2 -15 3Y BGN 0.01 2 -5
5Y RSD 5.11 0 -2 5Y RON 2.66 5 -14 5Y BGN 0.26 0 -11
7Y RSD 7.70 0 0 10Y RON 3.64 5 -14 10Y BGN 1.89 0 4
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 3.20 0 3 EUR Oct-25 2.56 1 -1 EUR Jul-17 0.06 -5 -1
USD Nov-24 6.42 1 1 USD Jan-24 3.78 2 0 EUR Sep-24 2.42 -21 0
CDS CDS CDS Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 272 -7 -3 5-year 133 6 0 5-year 178 7 7
10-year 318 -4 -22 10-year 170 6 -1 10-year 222 7 6
. .
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 591.6 -1.62% -8.15% BET 6111.8 -3.60% -12.74% SOFIX 444.5 -1.29% -3.57%
FOREX FOREX FOREX
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EUR/RSD 122.91 0.05% -1.08% EUR/RON 4.5348 0.15% -0.46% USD/BGN 1.7939 -0.15% 0.36%
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
BET Index
118
120
122
124
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
EUR/RSD
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
4.55
4.60
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
EUR/RON
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
USD/BGN
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
BET Index
400
450
500
550
600
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Nov-1
5
SOFIX Index
