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NTA Coordinators Ronald D. Lee and Andrew Mason Series Editor: Sidney B. Westley NTA Bulletin Advisory Committee Gretchen Donehower, Alexia Fürnkranz- Prskawetz, Ronald D. Lee, Sang-Hyop Lee, Andrew Mason, Tim Miller, Germano Mwabu, Naohiro Ogawa, and Adedoyin Soyibo The lead institutions for the NTA project are the Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging at the University of California at Berkeley and the East-West Center. Regional centers are based at the East-West Center in Honolulu, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, the African Economic Research Consortium in Nairobi, and the Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences. Support for this project has been provided by: the United States National Institute on Aging; the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada; the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health at the Bloomberg School of Public Health; the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); the United Nations Population Division; the Asian Development Bank; the World Bank; the John D. and CatherineT. MacArthur Foundation; and the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development, and Demonstration (GA Nr. 613247). Support for this issue of the NTA Bulletin was provided by UNFPA. National Transfer Accounts East-West Center 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96848-1601 Telephone: +1.808.944.7566 Fax: +1.808.944.7490 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ntaccounts.org Population change and economic growth in Asia: New findings from the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project Population age structures are changing everywhere in the developing world, linked primarily to fertility decline, but nowhere have the changes been more rapid or dramatic than in Asia. And changing age structures can have a profound effect on wellbeing and economic growth. How many consumers and producers are there in a population? How much do they earn and how much do they consume at every stage of life? To what extent do the elderly support themselves from assets acquired during their working years? And how do families and governments meet the needs of children and the elderly who consume more than they produce? The NationalTransfer Accounts (NTA) project is bringing together data and developing analytical tools to help answer these important questions. By providing estimates of income, public and private transfers, and consumption and saving by age, NTA adds an important dimension to measures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other widely used economic indicators. Initiated in 2004, NTA has grown to a network of research scholars, graduate students, and government analysts in 47 countries around the world, including 12 countries and economies in Asia. Lead institutions are the Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California at Berkeley, and the East-West Center in Honolulu. Among many publications based on NTA analysis are an overview of results from 23 countries (Lee and Mason 2011) and a manual explaining the NTA methodology (United Nations 2013). In 2014, the Asia Pacific Regional Office of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA APRO) and the East-West Center launched a project to expand and update NTA analysis in Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Bangladesh and Malaysia joined the group later. The project includes national- level training, south-south exchange visits, NTA research-based policy briefs, and regional meetings showcasing best practices and progress, including comparisons with findings from other NTA member countries. This issue of the NTA Bulletin highlights early findings from this expansion of NTA analysis in the region. Note that some of the results reported here are preliminary and should be interpreted with caution. BULLETIN NovEmbEr 2015 NumbEr 8 3115 NTAbulletin-8:Layout 1 10/27/15 4:06 PM Page 1

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Page 1: BULLETIN - University of Hawaiʻi...6 NTA Bulletin Cambodia,Thailand,Vietnam,and Indonesia,indicatingthatthesecountries wereenjoyingastrongfirstdemographic dividend.Japan,withitslargeelderly

NTA CoordinatorsRonald D. Lee and Andrew Mason

Series Editor: Sidney B. Westley

NTA Bulletin Advisory CommitteeGretchen Donehower, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Ronald D. Lee, Sang-Hyop Lee,AndrewMason,TimMiller, GermanoMwabu,Naohiro Ogawa, and Adedoyin Soyibo

The lead institutions for the NTA projectare the Center for the Economics andDemography of Aging at the Universityof California at Berkeley and the East-WestCenter. Regional centers are based at theEast-West Center in Honolulu, the UnitedNations Economic Commission for LatinAmerica and the Caribbean in Santiago,the African Economic Research Consortiumin Nairobi, and the Vienna Institute ofDemography, Austrian Academy of Sciences.

Support for this project has been provided by:the United States National Institute on Aging;the International Development ResearchCentre (IDRC) of Canada; the William andFlora Hewlett Foundation; the Bill & MelindaGates Foundation through the Gates Institutefor Population and Reproductive Healthat the Bloomberg School of Public Health;the United Nations Population Fund(UNFPA); the United Nations PopulationDivision; the Asian Development Bank; theWorld Bank; the John D. and Catherine T.MacArthur Foundation; and the EuropeanUnion’s Seventh Framework Programme forResearch, Technological Development, andDemonstration (GA Nr. 613247). Supportfor this issue of the NTA Bulletin wasprovided by UNFPA.

National Transfer AccountsEast-West Center1601 East-West RoadHonolulu, Hawai‘i 96848-1601

Telephone: +1.808.944.7566Fax: +1.808.944.7490Email: [email protected]: www.ntaccounts.org

Population change and economicgrowth in Asia: New findings fromthe National Transfer Accounts(NTA) projectPopulation age structures are changing everywhere in the developing world,linked primarily to fertility decline, but nowhere have the changes been morerapid or dramatic than in Asia. And changing age structures can have aprofound effect on wellbeing and economic growth.

How many consumers and producers are there in a population? Howmuch do they earn and how much do they consume at every stage of life?To what extent do the elderly support themselves from assets acquired duringtheir working years? And how do families and governments meet the needs ofchildren and the elderly who consume more than they produce?

The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project is bringing together dataand developing analytical tools to help answer these important questions. Byproviding estimates of income, public and private transfers, and consumptionand saving by age, NTA adds an important dimension to measures of GrossDomestic Product (GDP) and other widely used economic indicators.

Initiated in 2004, NTA has grown to a network of research scholars,graduate students, and government analysts in 47 countries around the world,including 12 countries and economies in Asia. Lead institutions are the Centerfor the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California atBerkeley, and the East-West Center in Honolulu. Among many publicationsbased on NTA analysis are an overview of results from 23 countries (Lee andMason 2011) and a manual explaining the NTA methodology (UnitedNations 2013).

In 2014, the Asia Pacific Regional Office of the United Nations PopulationFund (UNFPA APRO) and the East-West Center launched a project to expandand update NTA analysis in Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’sDemocratic Republic (PDR), the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.Bangladesh and Malaysia joined the group later. The project includes national-level training, south-south exchange visits, NTA research-based policy briefs,and regional meetings showcasing best practices and progress, includingcomparisons with findings from other NTA member countries. This issueof the NTA Bulletin highlights early findings from this expansion of NTAanalysis in the region. Note that some of the results reported here are preliminaryand should be interpreted with caution.

BULLETINNovember 2015Number 8

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The economic lifecycleChanges in population age structure havean important economic impact becausepeople earn income and consume resourcesat very different levels over the course oftheir lives. The NTA project providesmeasures of income and consumption atall stages of the lifecycle.

Working-age adults, as a group,produce more through their labor thanthey consume. They may use their “extra”income to save and invest for the future orto provide support to children and theelderly, who consume more than theyproduce. This transfer of resourcesbetween age groups can occur throughprivate channels, largely within families,or through public channels when working-age adults pay taxes that support publicprograms such as education, healthcare,and pensions that benefit children or theelderly.

Using NTA data for a recent year,Figure 1 (page 4) shows per capita laborincome and consumption at all ages forseven low- and middle-income countries(Cambodia, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Thailand,the Philippines, Vietnam, and China) andone high-income country (Japan) in Asia.In each country where NTA researchershave analyzed data, consumption exceedslabor income for two long periods of life.These bracket a surprisingly short period—little more than 30 years and often less—during which more is being producedthan consumed. This pattern is remarkablysimilar among countries at widely differentstages of economic development.

Although the eight Asian countriesanalyzed here have very different incomelevels, the age pattern of labor income isbroadly similar, with income rising steeplyfor those in their 20s, reaching a peak, anddeclining thereafter. Within this broadpattern, however, there are variations thathave important implications for wellbeingand economic growth.

In lower-income countries, youngadults tend to complete their schoolingat an earlier age than in higher-incomecountries. If employment opportunitiesare plentiful, young adults in lower-incomecountries can move from school directlyinto employment, while young adultsin higher-income countries are still insecondary school or university.

In economies that are modernizingrapidly, growing numbers of young workersare employed in the highly paid manufac-turing and service sectors, while many olderworkers are still employed in agriculture.For example in Cambodia, the labor-income curve tilts toward the younger agesat the left, and labor income peaks at theearly age of 29. The pattern in China issimilar, with the highest per capita laborincome at age 32. Labor income in Japanshows the opposite pattern, with the curvetilting toward the older ages at the right,and labor income peaking at age 51. InThailand, labor income peaks even later—at age 53.

In countries such as Cambodia,workers are likely to continue workinginto old age, often in agriculture or theinformal sector, while in higher-incomecountries, they are more likely to stopworking at or near an official retirementage. For Japan, the right side of the labor-income curve drops sharply after peakingin the early 50s, while the decline in laborincome in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and thePhilippines is much more gradual. Chinastands out for a sharp decline in labor incomeat an early age—per capita labor income atage 50 is about one-half of income at age32. In India (not shown), the drop in laborincome for workers in their late 50s isparticularly steep, indicating the importanceof the public sector, with its mandatoryretirement age. But whether the curve issteep or sloping, older workers in allcountries earn much less than prime-ageadults.

Figure 1 also shows interesting variationsin per capita consumption patterns byage. For all age groups, consumption levelsare particularly low in China comparedwith labor income, due in part to highsaving rates. By contrast, consumption isparticularly high compared with laborincome in Cambodia. In these twocountries plus Thailand, per capitaconsumption among the elderly is similarto consumption among working-ageadults. In the Philippines, consumptionrises slightly at older ages, while in Lao PDR,Indonesia, and Vietnam, consumptiondrops at older ages, raising a concern aboutthe wellbeing of the elderly. Consumptionis particularly high among the elderly inJapan. More detailed NTA data (not

shown) indicate that this high consumptionis largely related to spending on healthcareand long-term care.

In Japan and Thailand, there are sharpspikes in consumption in late adolescence,reflecting substantial spending on secondaryand university education. More modestspikes are visible in Indonesia, the Philippines,Vietnam, and China, and little or none inCambodia or Lao PDR, suggesting that thesesix countries may not be making the invest-ments in human-capital development thatcould lead to a more productive workforce.

Striking differences occur whenpopulation age structure is added to theseper capita values to estimate consumptionand labor income for an economy as awhole (Figure 2, page 5). The lifecycledeficit, defined as consumption in excessof labor income, is particularly high for theyoung in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Indonesia,Thailand, and the Philippines. For theselower- and middle-income countries, thisis not because children have such highconsumption. Indeed, per capita estimates(Figure 1) show that children’s consumptiontends to be quite low. Rather, children as awhole consume so much in these countriesbecause there are so many children. Bycontrast, consumption is particularly highamong the elderly in Japan. Here twofactors are at work—old people have highper capita consumption, and there are alsomany old people in the population.

The changing dynamics of thesepopulation age groups have potentiallyimportant implications for crafting soundand sustainable public policy. As fertilitydeclines and the proportion of childrengoes down, countries have an opportunityto invest more in each child. At the otherend of the lifecycle, public healthcare andpension programs require fairly modestfunding at the early stages of the demo-graphic transition when there are fewelderly recipients, but especially generousprograms may become unaffordable aselderly populations expand.

The support ratio and thedemographic dividendCountries in Asia are at widely differentstages of a demographic transition that hasoccurred or is occurring everywhere in theworld. As fertility goes down, the numberof children needing support declines relative

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and effective consumers, individuals ateach age are counted in terms of theirlabor income and consumption relative toindividuals in the prime working-age groupof 30–49. For example, people age 50might, on average, earn more than peoplein the prime working-age group, so eachof them would count as more than oneeffective worker. A young adult age 20 andan elderly person age 70 are both likely toearn considerably less than a person age30–49, so each would count as less thanone effective worker. Similarly, the averageconsumption level for individuals age 30–49is counted as one effective consumer, andall others are measured relative to this basegroup.

Thus, the support ratio—the numberof effective workers relative to the numberof effective consumers—goes beyond simpledemographic measures of age structure byincorporating information about howmuch people produce and consume atevery age. A support ratio of 0.5 meansthat each worker is, on average, supportinghimself or herself plus one other consumer.

A rise in the support ratio means thateach effective worker is supporting fewereffective consumers. An economy enjoysthe first demographic dividend during theperiod when the support ratio is rising,freeing up resources that can be used toraise per capita consumption, or savingand investment, or both.

Table 1 shows the number of effectiveworkers and effective consumers in 12Asian economies, expressed as percentagesof the total population. These numbers areused to calculate the support ratio in 2015.The table also gives the average annualpercentage change in the support ratiofrom 2005 to 2015 and the estimatedannual change from 2015 to 2025. Asbackground, the table includes the totalpopulation of each economy, the totalfertility rate (average number of births perwoman), the per capita gross domesticproduct (GDP), and the annual percentagegrowth of per capita GDP.

Among these 12 Asian economies, thesupport ratio grew most quickly between2005 and 2015 in Lao PDR, Bangladesh,

November 2015 3

to the number of workers and taxpayers.At the same time, the number of elderlypeople, born in an earlier era of highmortality, remains small. With relativelyfew children and few old people, theproportion of the population in workingages reaches an all-time high, whichprovides a boost to economic growth calledthe “first demographic dividend.” Themagnitude of the boost depends on thespeed of fertility decline, the success withwhich young people enter the labor market,and other factors that can be influencedby sound policy. Importantly, this stageof demographic transition presents anopportunity for further investment inhuman and physical capital that can leadto a “second demographic dividend,”potentially providing another strong boostto economic growth.

NTA measures the potential for aneconomy to enjoy a demographic dividendin terms of changes in the “support ratio”—the number of “effective workers” relativeto the number of “effective consumers.”To estimate the number of effective workers

Table 1. Demographic and economic indicators for 12 economies in Asia, 2015.

Annual Annual EstimatedPer capita growth of Effective Effective change in annual

Total Total gross domestic per capita workers consumers support change inpopulation, fertility rate product gross domestic (% of (% of Support ratio, support ratio,

2015 (TFR), (GDP), 2014 product (GDP), population), population), ratio, 2005-2015 2015-2025Country and base year (millions) 2010–2015a (current US$) 2014 (%) 2015 2015 2015 (%) (%)

Bangladesh (BGD) 2010 160,996 2.2 1,093 4.8 5 1 88 0.58 0.84 0.56Cambodia (KHM) 2009 15,578 2.7 1,090 5.3 58 84 0.69 0.71 –0.01China (CHN) 2007 1,376,049 1.6 7,594 6.8 56 104 0.53 0.29 –0.89India (IND) 2004 1,311,051 2.5 1,596 6.1 49 86 0.56 0.49 0.36Indonesia (IDN) 2012 257,564 2.5 3,492 3.7 52 91 0.57 0.60 0.15Japan (JPN) 2009 126,573 1.4 36,194 0.1 53 1 16 0.46 –0.74 –0.40Republic of Korea(KOR) 2010 50,293 1.3 27,971 2.9 52 101 0.52 0.15 –0.58Lao PDR (LAO) 2012 6,802 3.1 1,760 5.7 43 79 0.54 0.92 0.83Philippines (PHL) 2011 100,699 3.0 2,871 4.4 48 87 0.55 0.45 0.20Taiwan Provinceof China (TWN) 1998 23,461 1.2 22,635 5.4 54 98 0.55 0.10 –0.47Thailand (THA) 2011 69,122 1.5 5,519 0.3 59 97 0.61 0.62 –0.27Vietnam (VNM) 2012 93,448 2.0 2,052 4.8 57 90 0.63 0.62 –0.49

Source: Effective workers, effective consumers, support ratios, and annual changes in support ratios calculated from NTA data. Population and total fertility ratefor 10 countries, United Nations 2014; for Taiwan Province of China, Republic of China 2015. GDP and annual growth of GDP for 10 countries,World Bank 2015;for Taiwan Province of China, Republic of China 2015.

Note: The values for effective number of workers and effective number of consumers are based on population estimates for 2015 and lifecycle estimates for abase year that varies among countries.aThe total fertility rate (TFR) for Taiwan Province of China is for 2014.

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Figure 1. Per capita labor income and consumption by one-year age groups for eight countries in east and SoutheastAsia, recent year.Source: Calculated from NTA data.Note: The green lines depict labor income, and the blue lines depict consumption. Both labor income and consumption are measured in thousand US dollars,PPP (purchasing power parity) in 2010, as shown on the y axis. The x axis shows age, which is calculated in one-year intervals. Table 1 gives the base year forwhich the NTAwas constructed for each country.

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Figure 2. Aggregate labor income and consumption by one-year age groups for eight countries in east and SoutheastAsia, recent year.Source: Calculated from NTA data.Note: The green areas depict labor income, and the blue areas depict consumption. Both labor income and consumption are measured in billion US dollars,PPP (purchasing power parity) in 2010, as shown on the y axis. The x axis shows age, which is calculated in one-year intervals. Table 1 gives the base year forwhich the NTAwas constructed for each country.

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Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, andIndonesia, indicating that these countrieswere enjoying a strong first demographicdividend. Japan, with its large elderlypopulation, enjoyed its peak support ratioin 1996. Now it has the lowest supportratio in the group, and it is the onlycounty in which the support ratio actuallywent down between 2005 and 2015.

Between 2015 and 2025, the supportratio will also start declining in six othereconomies—Cambodia, China, theRepublic of Korea, Taiwan Province ofChina, Thailand, and Vietnam. For theseeconomies, the period of the first demo-graphic dividend is over, but they stillhave the opportunity to enjoy a seconddemographic dividend based on furtherinvestments in human and physical capital.

Some implications for policyEvery stage of population change calls forappropriate policy responses, and these needto be fine-tuned according to each country’sspecific demographic, social, economic, andpolitical conditions. A good understandingof the demographic transition—and theassociated opportunities and challenges—can help policymakers pursue policies thatpromote economic growth, provide for thewellbeing of all age groups, and prepare forthe challenges of population aging.

Maintaining a favorable level of fertilityTotal fertility rates in 12 NTA-membereconomies in Asia range widely—frommore than three children per woman inLao PDR and the Philippines to less than1.5 in Japan, the Republic of Korea, andTaiwan Province of China (Table 1). InLao PDR, fertility has been decliningvery quickly since the 1990s, but fertilitydecline has been slow in the Philippines,Indonesia, and India, providing a verymodest rise in the support ratio over aperiod of several decades. If fertility inthese three countries were to decline morerapidly than anticipated, they could enjoya larger demographic dividend and agreater boost to economic growth.

This analysis includes three highlydeveloped economies in East Asia—Japan,the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan Provinceof China—that enjoyed a large first demo-graphic dividend associated with a veryrapid fertility decline. Today, however, the

period of rising support ratios in theseeconomies has passed, and policymakers arechallenged to realize a second demographicdividend that will sustain economic growthin spite of an unprecedented pace ofpopulation aging. China, Thailand, andVietnam will soon face similar challengesat a much lower level of national income.

One response has been efforts to achievea modest increase in fertility levels. Thegovernments of Japan, the Republic ofKorea, and Taiwan Province of China allhave policies and programs in place aimedat helping parents raise their children whileremaining in the workforce. These includematernity and parental leave, cash paymentsand tax breaks for families with children,opportunities for part-time work, flexibilityin the workplace, and free or subsidizedchildcare.

A recent project on low fertility andpolicy responses around the world (Rindfussand Choe 2015) suggests that wide-reachingand well-funded policy efforts may havesome positive effect on fertility, but it isvery difficult to achieve measurable results.One major hurdle is the current climate ofincome and job insecurity in many countriesthat makes young people reluctant to marryor start a family.

Investing in child health and educationA drop in the proportion of dependentchildren in a population frees up resourcesthat families and governments can investin the health and education of each child.As these children grow older and enter thelabor force, their increased productivitywill have a strong positive impact on theeconomy.

Countries that invest significantly inhuman capital will be replacing largecohorts of less productive workers withsmaller cohorts of more productive workersas their populations age. By doing so, theymay achieve a second demographic dividendthat will boost economic growth even asthe support ratio begins to decline.

NTA data from around the worldshow that, in fact, most countries are takingadvantage of fertility decline to increasespending on the health and education ofchildren. Estimates from 41 countriesconfirm that human-capital spending perchild tends to be highest in countrieswith low fertility (Figure 3). Spending onchildren’s health and education in 11 Asianeconomies tends to follow this generalpattern, but seven of these economies fallbelow the trend line, indicating that theyspend less on child health and education

Figure 3. Tradeoff between human-capital spending and fertility.Source: Calculated from NTA data.

Note: Lifetime human-capital spending per child is a synthetic cohort measure constructed bycumulating per capita health spending from ages 0–17 and per capita education spending from ages3–26.To enable international comparisons, the values are expressed as a percentage of the averageannual labor income of adults age 30–49 in each economy. See Table 1 for economy designations.

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the effects of changing investment inhuman and physical capital, is substantialand long lasting. Economic growthdepends on many factors, of course, butgreater investment in children’s health andeducation, along with sound investment intechnology, infrastructure, and other formsof physical capital is bound to play animportant role.

Providing opportunities for young adultsIn every country in the world, the transitionfrom school into the labor force hasimportant implications for humanwellbeing and economic growth. Thegreatest demographic dividend will beachieved in countries that can provide thebest employment opportunities for youngadults (Mason and Lee 2013).

In looking at the role of young adultsand other age groups in the labor force,NTA employs a comprehensive definition oflabor income that includes the value of mostproductive work—the earnings of employees,employer-provided benefits, taxes paid tothe government by employers on behalf ofemployees, the proportion of entrepreneurialincome that is a return to labor, and theestimated value of unpaid family labor thatresults in the production of goods.

These comprehensive data on laborincome by age show wide variation in thelabor income of young adults comparedwith the income of prime-age workers

(Table 2). Per capita labor income at age20–24 is particularly low in Japan, theRepublic of Korea, and Thailand, forexample. This is as expected because arelatively high proportion of young adultsin these countries are still in school oruniversity and are earning little or no income.

But labor income is also quite lowamong young adults in India and LaoPDR, and these countries have amongthe lowest levels of secondary and tertiaryenrollment in the region (World Bank2015). This suggests that many of theseyoung people are not in school, but theyare also not earning much income. Becausethese countries have young populations,low labor income for this large age grouphas a particularly strong impact on thesupport ratio, undermining efforts toachieve a robust demographic dividend.

Recognizing the full economiccontribution of womenIn NTA member countries all over theworld, women’s labor income appears tobe somewhat lower than the labor incomeof men throughout the lifecycle. Thepattern for Lao PDR (Figure 4) is, in fact,atypical in that labor income for the twosexes is quite similar.

NTA’s definition of labor income,although very comprehensive, does notinclude the value of time associated withchildrearing, elderly care, or other at-home

November 2015 7

than would be expected for their level offertility. Lao PDR, Vietnam, Indonesia,and the Philippines have particularly lowspending on child health and education.

In comparing levels of human-capitalinvestment, NTA data also capture thebalance between public and private spending(not shown). Among high-income countries,private spending on children’s health andeducation plays a much more important rolein the Republic of Korea than in Japan, forexample. Public programs play a strikinglysmall role in supporting children’s healthand education in Vietnam and Cambodia,leaving young people dependent on supportfrom their families. This means thatchildren from poor families are particularlydisadvantaged, with limited potential foreconomic mobility. Investment in childrenis especially low in Lao PDR from bothpublic and private sources.

The first dividend, based on growth inthe support ratio, provides an important,but ultimately transitory, boost to economicgrowth. The second dividend, capturing

Figure 4. Per capita labor income of women and men in Lao PDr, 2012.Source: Calculated from NTA data.

Table 2. Per capita labor incomeof adolescents and young adultsin three age groups, recent year(percent average annual labor incomeof a prime-age (30–49) adult).

Per capita labor income(% average annual laborincome of a prime-age

(30–49) adult)

Age Age Age15–19 20–24 25–29

Country andbase yearJapan 2009 3.1 27.6 54.9Korea, Rep. 2010 3.5 30.3 68.5Thailand 2011 8.9 37.6 72.4India 2004 14.6 39.1 68.8Lao PDR 2012 15.0 42.0 77.1Taiwan Provinceof China 1998 7.6 46.0 86.3Indonesia 2012 15.3 48.3 74.6Bangladesh 2010 28.8 53.6 76.4Vietnam 2012 15.6 59.5 106.6China 2007 16.7 60.3 105.4Philippines 2011 13.9 61.1 92.0Cambodia 2009 46.3 91.1 111.2

Source: Calculated from NTA data.

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economic growth, however. Productiveinvestments during the first demographicdividend can provide the basis for a seconddividend that is substantial and prolonged.

Economic benefits accrue when theelderly support themselves from productiveinvestments they made during their workingyears, and indeed, many are doing justthat. NTA data indicate that in manycountries old people provide more supportto their families than they receive in return,with the balance of support only shiftingin extreme old age. In some countries, theelderly, who pay taxes on their houses andother assets, actually pay more to thegovernment than they receive in benefits.

Policymakers need to think aheadabout how their growing elderly populationswill be supported in the future withoutoverburdening those at working age orsacrificing economic growth. The goalshould be to establish public programs thatprovide some basic level of security butthat can be sustained in the years ahead.

Priorities include enacting labor lawsthat discourage discrimination against olderworkers, extending or eliminating mandatoryretirement ages, and possibly raising theage of eligibility for pensions. In addition,governments can play an important role bycreating an economic environment thathelps working-age populations accumulatesavings and establish some degree offinancial independence. Well-functioningfinancial markets, a strong banking system,secure property rights, a competitiveeconomy, and financial literacy all play arole in assuring the economic security ofall age groups, including the elderly.

Additional resources

Hwang, Namhui, and Lee, Sang-Hyop (2013).Non-market labor and National Time TransferAccounts. Paper presented to the 9th Meetingof the Working Group on MacroeconomicAspects of Intergenerational Transfers,Barcelona, Spain, June 2013. Available onthe NTA website at http://www.ntaccounts.org.

Lee, Ronald, and Mason, Andrew, lead authorsand editors (2011). Population aging and thegenerational economy: A global perspective.Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Mason, Andrew, and Lee, Sang-Hyop (2013).Youth and their changing economic roles inAsia. Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 27(2):61–82.

Republic of China (Taiwan). (2015). Nationalstatistics: Latest indicators. http://eng.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=5. Accessed 9 Sep 2015.

Rindfuss, Ronald R., and Choe, Minja Kim(2015). Diversity across low-fertility countries:An overview. In Ronald R. Rindfuss andMinja Kim Choe, eds. Low and lower fertility:Variations across developed countries. Springer.

United Nations, Department of Economic andSocial Affairs, Population Division (2013).National Transfer Accounts manual: Measuringand analysing the generational economy.http://www.ntaccounts.org/doc/repository/NTA%20/manual%202013.pdf. Accessed 9Sep 2015.

United Nations, Department of Economic andSocial Affairs, Population Division (2014).World population prospects: The 2014 revision.http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/. Accessed 9 Sep2015.

World Bank (2015). GDP per capita (currentUS$). http://databank.worldbank.org/data.Accessed 9 Sep 2015.

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activities that do not produce market goodsor services. As a consequence, women’slabor is not fully documented.

Women’s labor associated with house-keeping and the care of children and theelderly can be quite significant. For example,analysis of 2004 time-use data for theRepublic of Korea found that adding thevalue of non-market activities increased percapita labor income by 40 percent (Hwangand Lee 2013). And nearly all of thisadditional labor was provided by women.This is likely to be the case in other NTAmember countries in Asia.

The NTA project has developedmethodology to incorporate the value ofhousework and family care into estimatesof labor income for women and men atall ages. These extended accounts are nowbeing constructed in many countriesaround the world. Meanwhile, calls toincrease women’s participation in theformal economy need to be tempered by arealization of how much labor women arealready contributing in their homes.

Planning for population agingNTA estimates show that elderly populationsare supporting one-third or less of theirconsumption through their labor. This istrue in countries at all levels of economicdevelopment. To fill the gap between whatthey consume and what they earn, theelderly may rely on their families or ongovernment pensions and healthcareprograms or on the assets they accumulatedearlier in life.

Populating aging may not necessarilycreate a financial burden or put a brake on

UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, isthe lead UN agency for delivering a world where everypregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and everyyoung person’s potential is fulfilled. UNFPA supportscountries in using population data for policies andprograms encompassing a range of issues including aging,the demographic dividend, migration, and urbanization.

The East-West Center promotes better relations andunderstanding among the people and nations of theUnited States, Asia, and the Pacific through cooperativestudy, research, and dialogue. Established by the UnitedStates Congress in 1960, the Center serves as a resourcefor information and analysis on critical issues of commonconcern, bringing people together to exchange views,build expertise, and develop policy options.

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