bullion commodity reports for the week (28th march - 1st april - 2011)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (28th March - 1st April - 2011)

1/8

Weekly Report

Commodity2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1

www.capitalvia.com

WEEKLY

PRECIOUS METALS DROPS ON

STRONG US DOLLAR !

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed


2/8

2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

7:30pm

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Personal Spending m/m

Personal Income m/m

Pending Home Sales m/m

USD

USD

USD

USD

1:10am

6:30pm

7:30pm

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

CB Consumer Confidence

USD

USD

USD

Tue

Mar 29

0.1%

0.2%

1.0%

-2.8%

-2.4%

70.4

0.2%

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

-3.1%

64.9

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

MonMar 28

Globa l Re s e a rch L imi t e d

5:00pm

5:45pm

8:00pm

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Crude Oil Inventories

USD

USD

USD

Wed

Mar 30

217K

20.0%

2.1M

212K

6:00pm

7:15pm

7:30pm

8:00pm

10:15pm

Unemployment Claims

Chicago PMI

Factory Orders m/m

Natural Gas Storage

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Thu

Mar 31

71.2

3.1%

-6B

382K

70.3

1.1%

379K

5:45pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

7:30pm

7:30pm

7:30pm

All Day

10:15pm

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Non-Farm Employment Change

Unemployment Rate

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Construction Spending m/m

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Total Vehicle Sales

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Fri

Apr 1192K

8.9%

0.0%

61.4

-0.7%

82.0

13.4M

191K

8.9%

0.2%

61.3

0.6%

83.4

13.3M

2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1


3/8

Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview


Gold reversed gains in high volume on Friday, hit by a dollar spike after several top U.S. Federal Reserve officials said the Fed is unlikely to extend its bond-buying stimulus

program beyond a planned $600 billion. Bullion lost nearly 2 percent following a brief rally to an all-time high $1,447.40 on Thursday, but the metal is set to post a small

gain for the week as Portugal's credit downgrade and escalating political unrest in the Arab world underpinned safe-haven demand. Spot Gold dropped 0.1 percent to

$1,427.91 an ounce. U.S. Gold futures for April delivery settled down 0.6 percent at $1,426.20. COMEX Gold was one of the few actively trading commodity markets with

volume already topping 250,000 contracts, one of the heaviest trading days year to date.

GOLD SET FOR BIGGEST QUATERLY OUTFLOW

Despite Gold's recent strong performance, inflows into exchange-traded funds backed by the precious metal remained lackluster, with holdings of the largest, New York'sSPDR Gold Trust, down by another 0.9 tonnes on Thursday. They are so far on track to fall more than 65 tonnes this quarter alone, which would be the fund's largest

quarterly outflow since it was launched in 2004. However, interest in bullion from other sources is outweighing these outflows. Gold investors now look forward to next

week's heavyweight economic indicators, including Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, Wednesday's ADP private-sector job data and Thursday's factory orders. Silver gained

0.2 percent to $37.21 an ounce, having retreated from the previous session's 31-year high at $38.13 an ounce. Holdings of the largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust,

leapt to a record 11,140 tonnes on Thursday.

GOLD FALLS AS DOLLAR RISES, FED COMMENTS WEIGH

NYMEX-CRUDE DIPS ON PROFIT-TAKING, EYES MIDDLE EAST

U.S. Crude futures ended lower on Friday on profit-taking but posted their best weekly performance in three weeks - up 4.28 percent, driven by supply worries as Libyan

conflict and Middle Eastern turmoil raged. Prices fell for a second day in what analysts deemed a market pause, after NYMEX May Crude failed to break above the March 7

intraday peak of $106.95, the highest in 2-1/2 years.

FUNDAMENTALS

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for April delivery settled at $105.40 a barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.19 percent, after trading from $104.50 to $105.95. For the

week, front-month Crude raised $4.33, following two straight weeks of losses. It last posted a weekly gain in the week to March 4, when prices rose $6.54, or 6.7 percent.

Volume for the week, at around 2.5 million lots with less than an hour left of trading, was on course to be the lowest weekly total since the year began. U.S. May Crude's

discount against Brent widened slightly to $10.19 at the close, from $10.12 on Thursday. In London, May Brent Crude finished lower, but for the week gained 69 cents, up

for the second straight week. NYMEX April RBOB ended with a minor loss. For the week it jumped 9.54 cents, or 3.23 percent, after two straight weeks of losses. NYMEX April

heating oil slipped but for the week gained 3.05 cents, or 1.01 percent, after falling two consecutive weeks. J.P. Morgan raised its price forecast for West Texas Intermediate

to an average of $99 a barrel this year, up $6 from its previous forecast. For Brent, it forecast a second-quarter average of $118, from $105. Combined with smaller increases

for the third and fourth quarters, it increased its Brent projection by $6 to $110. The U.S. economy grew in the final quarter of 2010 at an upwardly revised annual rate of 3.1

percent, a faster clip than previously estimated, as businesses re-stocked to meet rising demand and maintained fairly solid spending. Speculators' net long positions in

NYMEX Crude futures and options rose 15,849 contracts to 286,812 in the week to March 22, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. It was slightly below the all-

time high 311,632 hit two weeks ago.

COPPER ENDS LOWER AS RALLY RUNS OUT OF STEAM

Copper ended lower on Friday, extending a phase of consolidation from this week's two-week highs, as investors continued to weigh the economic impact from Japan's

nuclear catastrophe and a worsening debt crisis in Europe. A drop in U.S. consumer sentiment to its lowest level in more than a year doused more cold water on the

economically-sensitive industrial metal's mid-week surge, suggesting the recent rally was overdone. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month Copper fell $30 to close at

$9,685 a tonne. Despite the negative close, prices did manage to post their second straight weekly gain. COMEX May Copper dipped 0.55 cent to end at $4.4190 per lb, after

dealing between $4.3990 and $4.4535. Trading volumes continued to slow as concern about a worsening debt crisis in Portugal following the collapse of the country's

government, coupled with violence in the Middle East and northern Africa, and Japan's ongoing nuclear crisis, and clouds the outlook for the global economic recovery.

COMEX Copper futures volumes stood around 31,800 lots, almost 40 percent below the 30-day norm, Thomson Reuters preliminary data showed. As a result, the dollar rose

to a session high against the euro and is likely to remain buoyant in the week ahead after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank will have to tighten monetary policy

soon to avoid sowing the seeds of inflation. Global No. 1 Copper producer Chile's Codelco said its 2010 output dipped but should be steady this year, and expects strong

Chinese demand, Japan's recovery after a natural disaster, as well as new uses to stoke demand.


2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1


4/8

GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold break the level of 1400$ and

made a low of 1380 but was not able to close above that . In the coming week 1375$ will

act as a major support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1425$ an ounce

then above 1440 $ an ounce it can touch the level of 1460$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold

sustains below 1390$ then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1370$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1441$ an ounce, then above 1450$ it can test the level of 1470$ an ounce and above

1470$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1370$ and 1340$.

Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1450$ and 1475$

Major support in MCX Gold is 20450 and 20150

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 21200 and 21450

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver break the level of

3670$ and made a weekly close above that. For the upcoming week 3550$ and 3350$ are

the crucial supports and 3800$ and 3920 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX

Silver 57000 and 58500 will act as major resistance and 53500 and 51000 will act as major

supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on

lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3700$ an ounce, then above 3800$

an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3850$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy

1489 1460 1443 1431 1414 1402

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1373

Script

Levels

4251 3968 3836 3686 3554 3403


3121

Script

Levels

Weekly Report

Commodity

Technical Analysis



2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1


5/8


6/8

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on

lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was able to sustain above 3.800$ and close near to its

week high. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 4.100$ then above the level

of 4.500$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.620 $ and below 4.100$ Natural Gas can

slightly go down and test the level of 4.010$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above190 in

the coming week then it can test the level of 207, if it does not break the level of 186 on the

downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 175 and 165.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.5000 then above the level of

44.7000 USD/INR can test the level of 45.0000 and below 44.5000 USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 44.3000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.5000 and 43.8000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and

46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

4.949 4.633 4.518 4.317 4.202 4.001


3.685

Script

Levels

45.9030 45.3330 45.0070 44.7630 44.4370 44.1930


43.6230

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1


7/8

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1426.2 0.71

SILVER 3704.9 5.68

COPPER 441.9 1.84

CRUDE 105.4 3.49

NATURAL GAS 4.403 5.64

USD/INR 44.68 -0.71

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

LEAD 31-MAR-11 121.25 -0.41

GOLD 05-APR-11 20829 -0.09

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 5-APR-11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 20848 20879 2071521048 20829 132172 9132 2731447.41-19

Silver MCX 5-MAY-11 Silver RS./ KG. 53111 53245 5324556555 55478 431360 15262 7057802.422367

Copper MCX 29-APR-11 Copper RS./ KG. 435.35 434.9 426.6441.75 439.1 460218 19145 1994503.023.75

Crude Oil MCX 18-APR-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4633 4660 46264797 4742 661103 16153 3116648.36109

Natural Gas MCX 26-APR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 192.8 193.4 191.4204.2 203.3 25357 3613 57920.0710.5

Lead MCX 31-MAR-11 Lead RS./ KG. 121.75 122 119.25123.95 121.25 105467 5041 639921.54-0.5

Zinc MCX 31-MAR-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 105 104.65 102.7108.7 106.2 119317 6389 628672.841.2

Aluminum MCX 31-MAR-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 114.85 114.3 114.1117.55 117.2 23468 2.35 1863 135799.93

Nickel MCX 31-MAR-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1210 1209 1182.71226.6 1216.7 221518 5873 665252.686.7

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

NATURAL GAS 26-APR-11 203.3 5.45

SILVER 05-MAY-11 55478 4.46

Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


*

* Turnover Till Friday

CRUDE OIL 18-APR-11 4742 2.35


2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1


8/8

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

21530.00

61713.67

466.15

5064.00

225.23

130.87

117.85

1296.40

123.18

21197.00

58403.67

451.00

4893.00

212.43

126.17

111.85

1252.50

119.73

20864.00

55093.67

435.85

4722.00

199.63

121.47

105.85

1208.60

116.28

20680.00

53632.33

429.95

4647.00

195.07

118.98

103.00

1190.60

115.02

20531.00

51783.67

418.97

4551.00

186.83

116.77

99.85

1164.70

112.83

20198.00

48473.67

405.55

4380.00

174.03

112.07

93.85

1120.80

109.38

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

21013.00

56942.33

445.10

4818.00

207.87

123.68

109.00

1234.50

118.47

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2 8 t h M a r c h - 0 2 n d A p r i l 2 0 1 1

bullion commodity reports for the week (28th march - 1st april - 2011)

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