Virginia’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment:

A lesson in Quiet Progress

Chris BurkettVA Dept. of Game and Inland Fisheries

June 5, 2013

Why are we here? Talk about the BIG

PICTURE Overview of our CC Plan Brief background of our

project Display some results Discuss emerging

management concerns Identify next steps

Fundamental Truth…

Virginia is a politically conservative coal producing state and we have been for centuries

How I Feel Most Days:

Working on Climate Change involves Political Peril

And

Stakeholders that want you to “Take a Stand”.

Climate Change Will Affect Management

Climate change will have an impact on how we do our jobs.

We work for organizations and agencies that were created to conserve and manage the nation’s resources.

Like other threats, we need to incorporate climate information into our planning processes.

2009 Climate Change Strategy Climate Adaptation Strategy

DGIF, NWF, VCN Multi-stakeholder effort Completed Oct. 2009 Designed to be place to start

One of the Most Important Needs:Develop a better understanding of how climate change might impact Virginia’s wildlife and habitats.

Side Boards

Our plan does not: Lay Blame Take Sides Make impossible recommendations Go on, and on, and on… Applicable to more than just

climate change

Virginia’s EffortPartner With NWF and CMI for a 2-Step Project

Determine: • the changes projected for

Virginia’s climate

and

• what those changes might mean for Virginia’s wildlife and habitats

9

Phase 1 – Climate Modeling Virginia- Specific Climate Model

10km X 10km Reports at 2060 and 2095 2 GHG scenarios (B1 and A1FI) Consider suite of climate

variables beyond avg. temp and avg. precipitation.

We wanted to understand the extreme events that drive the changing averages.

Variable Name Topsoil Moisture Cold snap days Soil Moisture Days in March with > 1" snowRoot soil moisture Mean spring growing degree daysDays with >= 6 " of snow

Mean minimum number of growing degree days in the spring

Days with > 0.5" of rain

Mean maximum number of growing degree days in the spring

Days with > 1" of snow Mean number of heatwave daysDays with > 1" runoff Minimum number of heatwave daysDays with > 8" runoff Maximum number of heatwave daysHeating degree days Mean soil moisture in JulyCooling degree days Mean minimum soil moisture in JulyFoliage Damage Days Mean maximum soil moisture in July

11

Top Soil Moisture (Dynamic Downscale)

Threats Assessment – Part 2 20 Species

Plants or Animals Must be associated with the

Action Plan (SGCN, habitat component, or threat)

Predictions based on current distributions and climatic tolerances

Species Name Scientific NameBald Cypress Taxodium distichumBlack Oak Quercus velutinaBobwhite Colinus virginianusBrook Trout Salvelinus fontinalisCope's Gray Tree Frog Hyla chrysoscelisEastern Hemlock Tsuga canadensisFlowering Dogwood Cornus floridaGypsy Moth Lymantria dispar

James River Spiny Mussel Pleurobema collinaNorthern Red Oak Quercus rubraOak Toad Anaxyrus quercicusRed Spruce Picea rubensRoanoke Logperch Percina rexShortleaf Pine Pinus echinataSouthern Red Oak Quercus falcataTimber Rattlesnake Crotalus horridusWhite Oak Quercus albaWhite Pine Pinus strobusWood Frog Lithobates sylvaticusYellow Birch Betula alleghaniensis

14

Model Process

Presence data Build CART model using current climate data Plug in future climate data into model for probability of

occurrence Low (.01 - .40) Medium (.41 - .70) High (> .70)

Quantify results/patterns

15

Climate Impacts and Implications for Wildlife and Habitat

Climate Variable

SRES A1Fi

Mid 21st Late 21stIncrease Decrease Increase Decrease

Day .5” rain 74.1% 25.9% 66.9% 32.3%

Day 1” snow 0.0% 86.5% 3.0% 83.5%

Day 1” runoff 14.3% 58.3% 24.0% 50.0%

Cold Snap Days 0.0% 99.6% 0.0% 99.6%MeanGrowing DegreeDays (GDD) 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

MeanHeatWaveDay (HWD) 98.7% 1.3% 100.0% 0.0%

Climate Projections from Modeling

Changing Forest Composition Potential for changing

forest composition. Climate could be more

favorable for some species (So. Red Oak and Bald Cypress)

Less favorable for others (Black Oak, White Oak, No. Red Oak)

Concerns about rate of transition.

Potential secondary impacts - habitat

Northern Red Oak

19

Flowering Dogwood

20

Bald Cypress

21

Possible extirpations Brook Trout Loss of cold water habitats

Possible Extirpations

Brook Trout

23

Invasive Species – gypsy moth

Likely to do well under predicted conditions

Could impact others species Oaks, adapting Black bears

responding to oaks

Invasive Species

Gypsy Moth

25

Selection of Additional Species

Timber Rattlesnake Oak Toad Bobwhite Quail

Timber Rattlesnake

27

28

29

What have we learned?

Things are going to change Not as simple as move upslope/upstream Distributions will change, so will probability of occurrence New combinations of species

Complex interactions Gypsy moth and oak species Changing plant community composition Competition from new species interactions

Native species Invasives

30

Management Implications

DGIF Virginia Wildlife

Action Plan Wildlife

Management Areas Species specific

management plans

Other sectors:•CZM program•Department of Forestry•NEPA process•Local planning offices

Climate is not the sole determining factor.

Next Steps… What to do with the

data Summarize Availability

Research Conserved lands

Focus on Habitats Collaborations

33

Questions? Ideas?Chris BurkettWildlife Action Plan CoordinatorVirginia Department of Game and

Inland FisheriesChris.Burkett@dgif.virginia.gov

Virginia’s Climate Strategy for Wildlife is Available at:http://www.bewildvirginia.org/climate-change/

Austin KaneScience and Policy ManagerNational Wildlife Federationkanea@nwf.org

Scott KlopferDirectorConservation Management Institutesklopfer@vt.edu