Burning Economic Issues

• Nigeria’s trade balance falls sharply by 71% to $1.86bn in Q3

• CBN adds fertilizer to 41 items banned from forex

• Q3 GDP expands by 0.31% (year-on-year) to 1.81%

• Oil marketers give FGN 5-day warning to pay subsidy backlog

• External reserves up by 1.4% since November ($42.6bn)

Impact

• Agriculture growth of 1.91% is below

the average of the last 3 quarters

• External reserves level continues its

creep up

• Benefitting from Eurobond proceeds

• Imports spikes by 98% to $11.46bn

in Q3

• Brent now below $60pb ($59.92pb)

The GoodiesThe Downers

Power Sector

December 9th

• Average power output: 4,015MW/h (down by 207.87MW/h)

• Water constraint stood at 190MW while grid constraint was at 384.5MW. No

gas constraint

• Naira equivalent of power loss: N0.276billion (annualized at N100.74billion)

State Temperature

Abuja 280C

Kano 210C

Lagos 280C

Domestic Commodities Price Movement

Commodities Current Prices

PreviousMonth Prices

Directional Change

1-Year Low 1-Year High

Palm Oil (25l) N10, 000 N10,000 N6,000 N25,000

Semovita (10kg) N2,800 N2,850 N1,800 N3,500

New Yam (medium size) N400 N400 N400 N1,900

Sugar (50kg) N14,900 N14,900 N8,000 N20,000

Relatively Elastic Goods

Domestic Commodities Price Movement

Commodities Current Prices

PreviousMonth Prices

Directional Change

1-Year Low 1-Year High

Garri (50kg) Yellow N6,500 N6,500 N7,000 N16,000

Rice (50kg) N16,000 N15,500 N13,000 N22,000

Flour (50kg) N11,000 N11,000 N8,500 N11,100

Beans (Oloyin)(50kg) N26,500 N26,000 N12,000 N34,000

Cement (50kg) N2,600 N2,550 N1,400 N2,700

Tomatoes (50kg) N8,000 N12,000 N8,000 N20,000

Pepper (bag) N8,000 N13,000 N8,000 N15,000

Relatively Inelastic Goods

Street price

N120

N260

N350

Goods

Bread Loaf

Pepsi (50cl)

Beer (60cl)

Indomie (1 carton)

Supermarket price

N100

N300

N400

N2,100

% difference

20%

-15.5%

-12.5%

-15.30%

Domestic food prices remain flat

Gala (big size) N100 N100 0%

N1,900

Consumer Goods – Current price

Commodity in Focus - Okro

•Planting/harvesting lag: Approximately 2-2½ months

•Total global production: Estimated at 8.9mn tonnes ($10.68bn)

•World’s top producers: India, Nigeria, Sudan

•World’s top consumers: India, Nigeria

•Uses: okro soup, thickening agent in other soups, okra juice, traditional medicine

•Joint demand (ugu & okro, eba & okro)

Source: FAOSTAT, FDC Think Tank

Okro Production in Nigeria

•Output: Estimated at 1.98mn tonnes ($2.38bn)

•22.25% of total global production

•Production rank: Global-2nd, SSA-1st

•Potential output: Approximately 5mn tonnes

•Widely planted in Nigerian compounds for subsistence consumption

•Producing states- Osun, Oyo, Anambra, Ebonyi

•Mainly used by households and restaurants

Source: FAOSTAT, FDC Think Tank

Stock Market

SharePrices

(N)

Daily % Change(December 7th -

10th)

YTD (% Change)

Nestle 1,485 4.13 4.56

Honeywell 1.10 4.35 47.62

Flour Mills 20.00 0.99 31.03

Cadbury 9.45 - 39.69

NB 78.00 2.50 42.18

Dangote Sugar

13.50 - 32.5

Unilever 38.90 - 5.12

•NSE ASI 0.82% to 30,614.73 on December 10th

•Consumer goods sub index 2.32% to 722.54pts

Oil Prices

• Brent crude down by 0.08% to $59.92pb

• Following OPEC’s decision to cut global supply by 1.2mbpd

• However, outlook for prices remains weak amidst slowdown concerns

BRENT

WTI

NATURAL GAS

COMMODITY

0.08%

1.62%

0.09%

DAILY CHANGEDecember 10th– 11th

10.39%

15.57%

53.90%

YTDCURRENT

PRICE

$59.92pb

$51.01pb

$4.54MBtu

Oil Markets Today

GraphicDesign

Wheat Corn Cocoa Sugar

• Cocoa prices decreased by 0.58% to $2,212/MT

• Despite strong demand from Asia.

• Sugar prices decreased by 0.54% to 0.1280/pound

• Increase in global sugar supply.

• Corn prices declined by 0.52% to $3.84/bushel

• Driven by abundant supply from Black sea region.

•Wheat prices down 0.75% to $5.27/bushel

• Amid renewed trade tensions between the US and China.

Agricultural Commodities

• Brent is likely to trade at higher prices this week ($62pb-

$65pb)

• Oil markets would continue to react to supply cut

OUTLOOK – Oil Prices

GRAINS

SOFTS Sugar

• Increased supply of sugar would keep prices low in the near

term

Cocoa

• Reduced cocoa output from Nigeria will push prices up

OUTLOOK – Agricultural Prices

• Doubts over export demand for EU wheat could push global

price of wheat down