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tion regarding fNAGRIE and  tion. 

anv.‐09 juil.‐09 ja

2002-2010)

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A, while high nd hailstorms

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1. Security and population movements

Just as in the months that preceded the end of 2010, the month of January 2011 was characterized by an increase in sporadic crime throughout the country and a high level of alert following rumours of attacks over the end-of-year holidays by the Al-Shabab terrorist group. Human rights abuses were reported, notably targeted killings, armed robberies of households and crops as well as rape. This instable criminal climate has persisted since the electoral period of May to September 2010. Meanwhile, the repatriation process has been less intense compared with recent years. Since 2002 UNHCR has facilitated the repatriation of 510 391 people. One must point out that of the 212 000 people who have applied for naturalization in Tanzania, 162 000 (76%) were granted citizenship, 45 000 others took the option of voluntary repatriation, whilst the remaining groups need to be persuaded to return to Burundi. The repatriation programme should come to a close before the end of 2010, while 37 000 refugees are still in exile in the Mutabira refugee camp in Tanzania. Hence the need to adopt the contingency plan which is currently being finalized under UNHCR coordination. In October 2010, UNHRC initiated the repatriation of Burundian refugees in DRC and Congolese refugees in Burundi, in line with the tripartite agreement signed between the two countries and the UN agency in December 2009. A total of 1 093 Congolese citizens were returned to DRC and 3 609 Burundians returned to their country between October 2010 and the beginning of January 2011. 2. Rainfall situation Rainfall recorded for season 2011A, which comes to a close in February, has been characterized by strong climatic disturbances related to the La Niña weather phenomenon. La Niña is a weather phenomenon which originates in thermal anomalies in the equatorial waters of the central and eastern pacific ocean, and is characterised by abnormally low temperatures in these waters. The low temperatures result in low rainfall in East Africa.

Rainfall Variation data from end October to end December 2010 (pourecentage)

StationsOctober November December

D3  D1 D2 D3 D1 D2  D3

Cankuzo ‐57 ‐48 ‐28 ‐55 ‐22 ‐81 ‐35

Muriza ‐57 ‐48 ‐28 ‐55 ‐13 ‐58 ‐40

Kinyinya ‐37 5 46 ‐90 73 ‐82 ‐39

Gitega‐Aéro ‐98 21 ‐1 ‐82 ‐1 ‐96 8

Karusi ‐65 ‐25 178 ‐58 15,3 ‐26,5 19,1

Buja‐ Aéro ‐20,8 ‐39,3 24,7 ‐15,2 ‐100 ‐100 ‐100

Gisozi 77 ‐14 64 ‐60 109 ‐16 ‐11

Muyinga ‐65 ‐25 178 ‐58 ‐39 ‐44 89

Bugabira ‐74 ‐13 ‐14 ‐78 18 ‐22,6 30,0

Kirundo ‐55 ‐62 69 ‐86 152 20 111

The rainfall deficits predicted since August 2010 have resulted in delays and prolonged breaks in the rains between September and December 2010. The variability in rainfall (excess and/or deficits) recorded by the meteorological stations of the Geographic Institute of Burundi (IGEBU) confirm the above effects of La Niña, as does the above table describing the rainfall variability. The rainfall data described in the table are calculated using the following formulae: Variability (V, in mm)= Recorded (R, in mm)-Normal (N, in mm). The proportions of variation (P, in %)= V * 100/N. The value of P determines the assessment levels relating to crops. From IGEBU: • If P% is superior to +20%, rainfall has been in excess. • If P% is within -19% and +20%, rainfall has been

normal. • If P% is within -20% and -59%, rainfall have been in

deficit. • If P% is below -60%, rainfall has been in severe deficit.

By applying these formulae, we can conclude that the rainfall registered in season 2011A has been largely in deficit. The most affected by the rainfall deficits at the end of 2010 were the regions in the North and North East of the country, at low and medium altitudes. These regions are Bugesera, Moso, Bweru and Buyogoma. In addition, storms and hail have occurred since January 2011, causing severe losses of crops and infrastructures (housing and schools), principally in the regions at high and medium altitudes. Those occurring at the end of January/ beginning of February 2011 have destroyed the crops of thousands of households in the communes of the Mumirwa and Mugamba regions. 3. Agricultural Situation Climatic extremes that characterized the September 2010 to January 2011 period have caused a significant reduction in performance for season 2011A. The erratic and delayed rainfall has delayed by more than two months the beginning of this season, especially in the regions in the North, North East and East of the country. This delay in seed-sowing has also affected the harvest period, which is in turn behind the prolongation of the hunger gap (typical food shortage between two harvests) on the one hand and of the overlap of seasons 2011A and 2011B on the other hand. Due to this, farmers who usually take seeds from the production of season A for sowing in season B will have difficulty finding seeds for season 2011B which normally begins in February. Bean crops, which had suffered significant drops in production in recent seasons, have been the most affected by rainfall deficits.

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