business forecasting & planning seminar …service. jayanta earned an mba (operations) indian...

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BONUS: FULL Day S&OP Forum to network and share best practices on improving S&OP performance BECOME A CERTIFIED PROFESSIONAL FORECASTER (CPF) ® CERTIFICATION EXAMS ON 18 JULY 2012 TEL: +1.516.504.7576 | FAX: +1.516.498.2029 | EMAIL: [email protected] | WEB: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm Improve your company’s forecasting accuracy, as well as the value and effectiveness of your demand planning & forecasting team Reduce on-hand inventory, avoid stock-outs, improve customer service, decrease procurement and logistics costs, and more Learn how to maximize the power of your demand planning & forecasting system Gain knowledge that can be used towards becoming a Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF) ® - the elite industry certification Earn credit towards IBF re-certification And much more! Supercharge your career and improve supply chain performance at your company! BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR w/S&OP FORUM ONLY $395 (USD)/ 23000(INR) per person when you register by 6 JULY2012! THE LALIT MUMBAI | MUMBAI, INDIA 16 – 17 JULY 2012

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Page 1: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

BONUS:FULL Day S&OP Forum to network and share best practices on improving S&OP performance

BECOME A CERTIFIED PROFESSIONAL FORECASTER (CPF)®

CERTIFICATION EXAMS ON

18 JULY 2012

tel: +1.516.504.7576 | fax: +1.516.498.2029 | email: [email protected] | web: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm

Improve your company’s forecasting accuracy, as well as the value and effectiveness of your demand planning & forecasting team

Reduce on-hand inventory, avoid stock-outs, improve customer service, decrease procurement and logistics costs, and more

Learn how to maximize the power of your demand planning & forecasting system

Gain knowledge that can be used towards becoming a Certified Professional

Forecaster (CPF)®- the elite industry certification

Earn credit towards IBF re-certification

And much more!

Supercharge your career and improve supply chain performance at your company!

BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANN ING SEMINARw/S&OP FORUM ONLY $395(USD)/23000(INR)per person whenyou register by6 JULY2012!

THE LALIT MUMBAI | MUMBAI, INDIA16 – 17 JULY 2012

Page 2: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 2

WHY YOU SHOULD ATTENDThis program provides best practices in demand planning & forecasting based on IBF’s body of knowledge used by 1000’s of global companies to achieve real demand planning and supply chain improvements. You’ll hear no theory, but what successful companies are applying today that works. If you get the forecast right, you will be able to reduce inventory, improve customer service, foster more collaboration and energize your S&OP process, while increasing profitability and market-share. This program will put you on a proven path to get there.

The hands-on and interactive nature of the program will foster discussion and idea sharing with participants to ensure knowledge shared is fully absorbed. The best way to learn about demand planning and forecasting is from those who have dedicated most of their professional career in practicing them. We will also help you to understand worst practices in planning, forecasting, and measuring forecast accuracy to learn what to avoid and why.

IBF will present an intense, compact, and down-to-earth educational experience followed by an interactive forum of case studies delivered by actual practitioners representing world-class global organizations.

Plus, with the limited supply of qualified demand planning & forecasting professionals in the marketplace, a global phenomenon, you have a chance to supercharge your career in this profession. The IBF has the salary benchmarking reports to prove it.

During the training seminar, there will be case studies and group exercises to optimize the learning. If you bring your laptop with MS-Excel (optional), it may be helpful during the quantitative portion of the program.

Plus, this seminar is an excellent step in preparing and becoming a Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF®)!

CERTIFICATION EXAMS WILL BE OFFERED | 18 July 2012 • Mumbai, India

To encourage industries to share S&OP knowledge, we have added a FULL DAY forum.

In this forum you will:

• Hear a variety of practitioners sharing common demand planning, forecasting, and S&OP challenges and solutions in an open discussion format

• Network and make new friends with professionals in a comfortable setting

• Bring back practical knowledge that can be put to use right away!

BONUS:

FULL Day Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) Forum

Demand PlanningForecastingS&OPLogistics

Supply Chain Sourcing ProcurementFinance

OperationsProductionInventory Management

Strategic PlanningBrand & Product ManagementSales & Marketing

Material ManagementBusiness PlanningMergers & AcquisitionsIT

WHO SHOULD ATTENDDirectors, General Managers, Managers, Leaders, and Analysts at all levels (beginner to experienced) responsible for:

Lunch, Morning and Afternoon Refreshments are included with your event registration FOR BOTH DAYS!

Page 3: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 3

WORKSHOP LEADER

FORUM LEADERS

Dr. Chaman L. JainProfessor of Economics | St. John’s University

Chief Editor, IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting | Professor, St. John’s University, New York, U.S.A.

Dr. Jain is a Professor of Economics at St. Johns University, New York U.S.A., and the founding Editor

of the IBF’s Journal of Business Forecasting. He has written over 100 articles, mostly in the area of

forecasting and planning; and has authored/co-authored nine books, mostly in the area of forecasting

and planning including the new “Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting”. In a consulting

and training capacity, he has worked for a number of organizations including, Saudi Aramco,

SABIC, DU/ Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company, Brown and Williamson, Sweetheart

Cup, Eastman Kodak, CECO Door, Hewlett-Packard, Jockey International, and more. Notably, his

Forecasting & Planning article, Thinking about Tomorrow was published in the Wall Street Journal.

Shalini Puchalapalli Unit Head – Karnataka and Kerala | PepsiCo

Alok Kumar Sengupta Manager of Business Development and Analytics | Merck and Co. Inc

Kumar’s core responsibilities include opportunity assessment and new product forecasting. He also

identifies areas of therapy gap, opportunities for portfolio expansion, partner identification and deal

alliance and structuring for India. He holds Masters in Pharmacy, program certificates in Strategic

Analysis from IIM Calcutta, and Project Management from the Indian Institute of Sciences, Bangalore.

Jayanta Chatterjee Planning Manager, Asia & Pacific BP Lubricants | BP Lubricants

Jayanta leads the Planning & Customer Fulfillment function for the Asia and Pacific region. His

responsibilities include establishing a centralized planning function; facilitating S&OP activities for

supply chain, and optimizing the network of physical product flow. Jayanta is also responsible for

building processes and functional capability for the region and delivering best-in-class customer

service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in

Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University, Calcutta.

Praveen RajurkarProgram Manager - CEO’s Office | Gulf Oil India

Praveen is posted at Gulf Oil as Program Manager and is responsible for various change

management initiatives. He has been working in the Leadership Module in the Hinduja Group. He

has worked at Ashok Leyland, Gulf Oil, Hinduja Foundries in operations, marketing and production

planning. Praveen obtained his degree and his MBA from IIM Bangalore.

Page 4: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 4

Rishi TrivediCountry Sales Operations Manager | Apple

Rishi Trivedi is currently the Country Sales Operations Manager at Apple. His core responsibilities

include demand forecasting for all products in India, business planning, channel inventory

management and business analytics support to management. During his tenure at Apple Trivedi set

up the demand forecasting function in India and has also lead supply chain projects to improve and

rationalize lead times, distribution networks and fill rates. Prior to this, Mr. Trivedi worked extensively

in financial planning and analysis function in FMTG and manufacturing industries. Rishi is a Chartered

Accountant by qualification and holds a Certified Professional Forecaster designation as well. In

addition he also holds a management certification from the Indian Institute of Management in

Calcutta and a Masters Degree in Economics from the University of Pune.

Rishi MutrejaAssistant General Manager-SCM | Videocon Group of Industries, Gurgaon

Rishi is responsible for development and implementation of short and long term strategic plans and

ensuring that projects stay on time and within budget. He works closely with all levels of management

to determine needs, develop strategies and plan and provide procurement sources in support of those

needs. Rishi was an integral part of developing contract manufacturers Flextronics and Jabil for Tata in

Malaysia and China.

Sandeep SharmaInternational Supply Chain - India, Middle east & Africa | Papa Johns

Samrat GhoshManager, Demand Planning | General Mills

Samrat manages the Demand Planning and Forecasting team, and is responsible for sales forecasting

for all General Mills Inc products. He has been a trainer in best practices of sales forecasting and the

effective use of Demand Sensing. Samrat obtained a bachelor’s degree in engineering from the Vellore

Institute of Technology and a MBA from the IFIM Business School at Bangalore.

Page 5: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 5

Soft Aspects of Sales Forecasting: Validating Beyond StatisticsSales Forecasting is 60% quantitative data which comes from statistical analysis, but it’s also 40% qualitative data you gain from keeping your eyes and ears open. In a dynamic environment of fast moving technology goods (FMTG) forecast using historical data may be unreliable and often misleading. While it serves as a guide, the forecaster needs to go beyond the data to interact with various stakeholders and particularly people involved in direct interaction with consumers. Sales people come with their own characteristics and hence one needs to develop a people analysis when taking their feedback. In this session, attendees will learn more about the importance of seeking information beyond statistical data and how to incorporate this feedback into the forecast.

Attendees will learn:

• Importance of going beyond statistical analysis• The key people who can provide information that impacts forecast

• How to read information coming from sales people

Rishi TrivediCountry Sales Operations ManagerApple

Demand Sensing – The Next Generation ForecastingDemand sensing automates the synchronization of demand signals, combining massive amounts of data in a structured way producing the most likely prediction of future demand. By utilizing improved math and factoring in additional data, demand sensing typically reduces forecast error by 30% to 40%. Results are published directly into supply planning systems, seamlessly scaling to meet the needs of the largest and most complex supply chains. The principles of demand sensing apply across diverse industries and scale to any large company in the supply chain, including manufacturers, retailers and suppliers. Join this session to learn how demand sensing can improve your forecast accuracy like Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Kraft Foods, Kimberly-Clark and General Mills have.

Attendees will learn:

• What demand sensing is, its benefits and the steps to get it started in your company• How to build a more agile and responsive supply chain to mitigate effects of market volatility

• The benefits of implementing demand sensing strategies and technology

Samrat GhoshManager, Demand PlanningGeneral Mills

Shifting from Excel to a Web-Based Planning SystemLearn from the experience at Videocon Group (a worldwide conglomerate that manufactures consumer electronics and durable goods) when they moved from using Excel to a more robust web-based platform to manage their planning process. The overall objective was a strategic one: Aligning everything with the company goals and improving Gross Value Added (GVA – how much money the product contributes towards meeting fixed costs and providing bottom line profit). This project underscored the importance of integrating sales and production plans to align with targeted GVA. The new web-based system automates product mix availability by region, greatly reduces unnecessary raw material inventory and allows for easy preparation of cash flow requirements for production and imports. It also prevents users from changing the forecast or associated plans too often while allowing for better plan transparency across functions.

Attendees will learn:

• How to reduce clerical errors, minimize time required and increase accuracy in forecast and plan data management• The benefits of working with Sales and Finance for plan development and visibility• How to link production, sales and inventory throughout the value chain to improve GVA

Rishi MutrejaAssistant General Manager – SCVideocon Group

S&OP FORUM16 JULY 2012 | MONDAY | 8:30 – 16:15 FORUM

Page 6: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 6

Implementing A Collaborative S&OP Process in a High Growth Environment: Experience at Gulf Oil Gulf Oil India wanted to achieve the following objectives: provide more accurate forecasts to manufacturing, improve capacity utilization at its plants, optimize inventory levels and increase service levels to its customers. With these goals, they moved from a narrowly defined, functional planning process to a collaborative planning approach. A new S&OP process was developed that involved stakeholders from all relevant functions in the monthly planning cycle. In addition, a statistical forecasting system was developed and rolled out throughout the organization. Change management played an important role in the success of this overall project.

You Will Learn:

• How Gulf Oil was able to implement a collaborative S&OP process• The critical role of change management to ensuring a successful S&OP process

• The utility of statistical forecasting models, even in a high growth environment

Praveen RajurkarProgram Manager – CEO’s Office Gulf Oil India

Crawl, Walk, Run: Implementing S&OP at BP Lubricants in the Asia & Pacific Region This session focuses on the big challenges and benefits of the S&OP process from a practicing manager’s standpoint. The benefits of a robust implementation can be huge, but it also tests the patience of management. The process, system and people all play an absolutely critical role in this journey. It is essential to understand that to be successful in an organisation, a new S&OP process must be backed by a strong commitment from upper management. The huge size and diversity of the Asia & Pacific region also present adds to the challenges faced.

Attendees will learn:

• The critical role people & culture play on this change management journey• The actual challenges faced on BP’s S&OP journey and the process architect’s recommendations on how to overcome

those

• What success looks like and what benefits S&OP can bring to the organisation

Jayanta ChatterjeePlanning Manager, Asia & Pacific BP Lubricants BP Lubricants

Food & Beverage Retail Forecasting, Finding the Key to Unlocking HistoryFood & Beverage (F&B) forecasting is well known throughout the industry as notoriously difficult, often leading to inaccurate forecasting. This challenge is the result of the large variety of variables that effect F&B operations, the complex interactions between these variables, and the frequently large fluctuations in daily cover volumes. Forecasting sales based on historical data of food and beverage consumption requires maintaining and using accurate sales data. Managers ordering for upcoming periods need to know how much to spend on supplies in order to meet customer demand, while avoiding loss due to waste. Supply Chain managers in the F&B industry that do have readily available and accurate sales mix data can easily prepare a sales forecast for the upcoming month or even the next year.

Attendees will learn:

• How to define the challenges of F& B demand forecasting • How the link & information between various departments directly impact the forecasting

• How IT has impacted forecasting in F&B retail

Sandeep SharmaInternational Supply Chain – India , Middle east & AfricaPapa Johns

Page 7: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 7

New Product Forecasting & Planning- Issues, Experience and Success FactorsNew product forecasting becomes a formidable challenge when forecasting for a first-of-its-kind product in the market. The challenge is magnified in the pharmaceutical market, which has significant data gaps. Niche markets for which data is limited present challenges for the forecaster or brand manager. Potential markets and competitors must be defined, key customer segments identified and product growth projections predicted. Defining key events, such as product approval, will greatly affect forecast accuracy. Analogue based forecasting is the solution but how to derive analogues, which parameters to consider are imperative to know.

Attendees will learn:

• How to define the market while forecasting• How to distinguish the operating market

• Patient flow: the start of an effective forecast model

Alok Kumar SenguptaManager- Business Development and Analytics Merck & Co., Inc.

Product Segmentation to improve Statistical Forecast AccuracyIn this rapidly changing economy, with frequent product launches and phase-outs, forecast accuracy suffers. The segment-based forecasting approach improves forecast accuracy in industries with massive amounts of products and SKUs. This process offers reduced forecast effort with minimal loss of information for each SKU. Retail and consumer durable companies need to have accurate forecasts for each SKU at each location to optimize inventory planning at each distribution center, avoiding lost opportunities. Join us to see how product segmentation combined with product life cycle stage analysis aids in selecting the right forecast methodology, ensuring higher accuracy with reduced forecasting effort.

Attendees will learn:

• How to identify applicable data and cleanse the rest• How to determine the life stage of varying products

• How to correctly segment products for improved forecast accuracy

Mitul ShahManager, Supply ChainAccenture

Page 8: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 8

I. Introduction to Demand Planning & Forecasting

Forecasting is a combination of art and science. When done properly, it can provide a true competitive edge, and financial benefit to the company. If you’re dealing with excess inventory, heavy back-orders and poor customer service, you need to improve your planning and forecasting. In this section, we will describe fundamental demand forecasting concepts, how forecasting relates to planning and much more. To understand forecasting, one needs to know its fundamentals, why we need it, its impact, and who uses it and where.

Attendees will learn:

• Why we should invest in forecasting • The roles and responsibilities of key participants in the

forecasting & planning process and how to coordinate them.

• How forecasts impact management decisions and company performance

• The needs, goals, and perspectives of key participants, functions, and users of forecast & plans.

• When to use shipment forecasts, unit forecasts, revenue forecasts as compared to order(demand) forecasts against them

II. Forecasting & Planning Processes The forecasting process is as important, if not more, as analytics. The process drives and supports key decisions at the company. An important part of this section will include the consensus meeting and benefits of a single number forecast. Furthermore, we will discuss forecasting & demand planning in regard to people, processes and technology. Also, a key use of the demand plan is its input into Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) and other planning processes. This process is used to coordinate the company’s operations in order to balance supply with demand, and to achieve key company goals. Also, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment (CPFR) is used by many companies with key accounts to better and more efficiently manage their business. This has been especially successful for many suppliers that have utilized CPFR with retailers. These external collaborative processes help minimize the bull-whip effect, which will also be discussed. You will also hear how CPFR driven by POS/ Syndicated data can be effectively used in managing demand.

Attendees will learn:

• How to setup a forecasting consensus meeting and be driven by a single number forecasts

• Process best practices that can be used to improve your demand planning process and achieve the best forecasting results.

• How the forecasting process impacts forecast accuracy • What the bullwhip effect is, its effect on forecasting &

planning, and how to eliminate • How to manage and deal with bias across business

functions • How to gain forecast buy-in/ acceptance within the

organization • The role of judgment in forecasting & planning• Three key forecasting & planning processes; how they

improve forecasts and help in managing business: a. Consensus forecasting b. Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) c. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and

Replenishment (CPFR) • How to structure and manage the monthly S&OP cycle • The basics of CPFR, success factors, and challenges • What are the ingredients of a successful S&OP process • Why demand forecasting and demand management

become more effective when using POS & syndicated data data/information

III. Models, ModelingTo make the most from models for forecasting, we need to know the fundamentals of models and modeling. Although we say that the forecasting process is important, the analytics are important too, especially for preparing a baseline forecast. In this section, we will explain what to look for in the data. If you find any problems such as missing values, outliers, structural changes, seasonality, you will learn how to handle them. We will also discuss how much data you need to prepare a forecast.

Attendees will learn:

• Fundamentals of modeling • Types of models and which one to use and when • Benchmarking forecasting models • What to look for in the data, if there is a problem, how

to handle it• The fundamental differences between time series

forecasting and cause and effect models, such as regression

17 JULY | TUESDAY | 8:30 – 17:00

WORKSHOP

Page 9: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 9

IV. Time Series Models: The Most Commonly Used Statistical Forecasting Method Across the Globe

According to IBF’s benchmarking research, 6 out of 10 companies use some type of time series method. Therefore, it is important to know what different time series models are available, and which one to use and when. In time series modeling we extrapolate data by using one technique or another to make a forecast of the next period. Due to its simple data requirements and wide availability in all kinds of software (from spreadsheets to sophisticated forecasting & planning systems), time series make it relatively easier to generate good forecasts across a wide variety of products. In this section, we will review the assumptions and principles that apply to all time series methods. The characteristics, benefits, and limitations of exponential smoothing will also be discussed. Plus, key forecast model concepts and terminology will be discussed throughout the session. Furthermore, we will show how to prepare time series forecasts using MS-Excel, as exercises are an important part of this workshop.

Attendees will learn:

• How to prepare forecasts with time series models • How to evaluate forecast models • How to evaluate accuracy in selecting your model, and

establish in advance, the expected accuracy and range of forecasts

• Key concepts and terminology of time series forecasting models and methods

• How to estimate seasonal factors, and improve forecast accuracy

• How to prepare forecasts with popular time series models including: a. Averages—simple, weighted and moving averages b. Trend c. Exponential smoothing –Single, double and triple d. Classical decomposition e. Family member forecasting

• How to estimate seasonal factors, and improve forecast accuracy

V. Promotional/ Event Driven Forecasting, Quantifying Relationships with Regression

How much sales lift can we expect with a 10% increase in promotional activities? What can happen to sales if we decrease price by 20%? In this section, you will learn how to quantify relationships with what you’re trying to forecast with cause-and-effect, otherwise known as regression models. We will provide an overview of causal methods using time series data for forecasting, including a review of various causal forecasting models

with a practical focus on how they are applied in real-world situations. We will show you how they are used for optimal results. Additionally, key terminology and concepts will also be discussed in this section. Regression is a powerful tool for scenario planning and What-if analysis.

Attendees will learn:

• How to accurately forecast sales lifts with promotional changes, pricing changes, economic changes, and other variables that are correlated with what you’re trying to forecast

• Types of cause and effect models • How to build a regression model for forecasting, both

simple and multiple, which include: a. Underlying assumptions in regression models b. Steps followed in preparing a forecast c. Specification d. Estimation e. Validation (using different diagnostic tools) f. Preparing forecasts

• How to improve the regression model • How to use regression models for what-if analysis/

scenario planning • How to use regression models for sensitivity analysis

VI. Measuring Forecasting Performance The heart of forecasting and planning is improving forecast accuracy that ultimately leads to favorable inventory levels, improved customer service, an optimized supply chain, greater profits and market-share. But, how does one know what to improve if nothing is measured? What is not measured, never improves. So it is important to have performance metrics in place and monitor them. In this section you will learn how to measure and improve performance.

Attendees will learn:

• Key metrics(KPI) to measure performance for continuous improvement

• How to identify the sources of errors • About different error measurement metrics, and their

pros and cons, that can be used to better understand your forecasting and planning performance

• How to use error as information feedback to improve your forecasts

• What we need to know about forecasting error metrics

• Benchmarks of forecast errors • How to measure forecast error with the following

metrics: a. MPE b. MAPE c. WMAPE

Page 10: BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINAR …service. Jayanta earned an MBA (Operations) Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta and a BS in Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University,

Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 10

VII. How to Prepare Forecasts and Plans for New Products & Services

New products are a must because it is the life blood for a company’s growth. And being able to estimate the demand of new products is crucial for financial success. However, forecasting for new products and services presents a unique challenge due to the lack of historical data. This challenge is even greater for products with a short life cycle such as cosmetics, apparel, electronics and other high fashion items. In this section we will review the new product development process and then provide several different methods for estimating their sales. .

Attendees will learn:

• Why new product forecasting • Types of New Products • How to generate forecasts with New Product

Forecasting models such as: a. PERT b. Delphi c. Bottom up d. Penetration/buy rate e. Analog f. Survey g. Diffusion

• Benchmarks of sales of new products • Error Benchmarks of new product forecasting

EVENT CONCLUDES

17 JULY | TUESDAY | 8:30 – 17:00

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Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 11

BECOME A CERTIFIED PROFESSIONAL FORECASTER (CPF)

IMPROVE YOUR CREDIBILITY AND VALUE – BECOME AN INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS FORECASTING &

PLANNING CERTIFIED PROFESSIONAL FORECASTER (CPF). In this highly competitive global economy,

we provide demand planning, forecasting, and supply chain professionals a way to stand out

from the crowd. IBF Certifications are recognized worldwide as the mark of a true forecasting &

planning professional. They continue to contribute to career advancement and salary increases.

Established in 1981, celebrating its 31st year, The Institute of Business Forecasting and Planning is

recognized and respected across the globe. But, don’t just ask us, ask the hundreds of multinational

companies that have IBF certified professionals as part of their staff.

Benefits For Employees• Validate your experience, knowledge,

and skill-sets• Enhance credentials, and advance

your career• Set an example for others in your department• Become more recognized at your

company, as well as in the field• Pre-qualify yourself for new positions

in the field• Improve your career opportunities

Benefits For Employers

• Certified individuals are pre-qualified, allowing you to identify the right person for a Demand Planning & Forecasting position with ease

• Increase the value of your forecasting & planning staff, department, and company

• More likely to improve company performance

• More likely to encourage internal collaboration/ consensus and build critical relationships

• Save time and resources in training! CPF® or ACPF TM professionals already have a verified body of knowledge

EXAM WILL BE OFFERED | 18 JULY 2012 • MUMBAI, INDIA

1. Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF®)This designation can be earned by passing Exams 1 to 3

2. Advanced Certified Professional Forecaster (ACPF™)Once you have achieved the CPF® designation, work towards an ACPF™ designation by passing Exams 4 and 5

GET CERTIFIED AFTER THE SEMINAR & FORUM! PLEASE VISIT WWW.IBF.ORG FOR ADDITIONAL EXAM DATES AND LOCATIONS.

EXAM DATE | 18 July 2012 • Mumbai, India

Register on our website, www.ibf.org or call us @+1.516.504.7576 for more details.

EARN 10 POINTS TOWARD RE-CERTIFICATION BY ATTENDING THIS SEMINAR & FORUM!

TWO LEVELS OF CERTIFICATION

Certified Professional Forecaster

Candidate (CPF-C)

FOR STUDENTS & NEW FORECASTING & PLANNING PROFESSIONALS

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Business Forecasting & Planning Seminar w/ S&OP ForumTo Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm 12

First Name Last Name/Surname

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City State/Province/County Zip/Postal Code Country

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m Payment Enclosed m Bill Company m Credit Card

Visa/Mastercard/American Express/Discover Exp. Date

Signature

m Seminar & Forum Single Registration $ 395.00 (USD) | 23000 (INR)Unprecedented Offer: Registration includes: S&OP Forum & Seminar (2-days), Morning & Afternoon Refreshments, Lunch, and Networking Opportunities

Onsite Pricing $1395 $1000 USD Savings! Expires: 5 July 2012

m Seminar & Forum + CPF Exams $ 1,445.00 (USD) | 91000 (INR)

Fee to attend Seminar & S&OP Forum and take CPF Exams.

m CPF Exams Only $1,050.00 (USD) | 66000 (INR)

Fee for take CPF Exams Only

REGISTRATION FEE

How to Register:

You may register by phone, fax, mail or our website.

Tel. +1.516.504.7576 | Fax. +1.516.498.2029Email. [email protected] | Web. www.ibf.org/1207india.cfm

Payment:Payment in full is required 15 days prior to scheduled date of seminar. Unless payment is received by that day, your registration will be canceled.

Seminar Location:The Lalit Mumbai Phone: +91-22-66992222 Fax: +91-22-66998888http://www.thelalit.com/the-lalit-mumbai/overview

Sleeping rooms are subject to hotel rack rate

Cancellation:

No refunds will be given for cancellations made on the date and thereafter of scheduled seminar and forum. The Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning reserves the right to substitute and/or eliminate speakers if necessary.

IBF MEMBERSHIP FEE:

International† $300 (USD)

International† (2yr) $550 (USD)

Corporate International†* $2000 (USD)

Corporate International† (2yr)* $3900 (USD)† International refers to outside USA *8 people maximum

PLEASE CALL OR VISIT WWW.IBF.ORG TO REGISTER FOR IBF MEMBERSHIP!

BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING SEMINARTHE LALIT MUMBAI | MUMBAI, INDIA | 16 – 17 JULY 2012w/ S&OP FORUM

Lunch, Morning and Afternoon Refreshments are included with your event registration FOR BOTH DAYS!

ONLY $395(USD)/23000(INR)per person whenyou register by6 JULY2012!