business forward 2014-12-05_final
DESCRIPTION
November Jobs Report with US Department of Labor's Chief Economist, Heidi ShierholzTRANSCRIPT
The Labor Market Situation in November
December 5, 2014
Heidi Shierholz, Ph.D.Chief Economist
UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OF LABOR
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Total nonfarm employment increased 321,000that’s the 10th consecutive month above 200,000 jobs
1-month change, in thousands
• November 2014 321
• October 2014 243
• September 2014 271
12-month change, in thousands
• November 2013 to 2014: 2,734
• Average: 228
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces
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Private sector employment increased 314,000that’s 57 consecutive months of growth, the longest streak on record
1-month change, in thousands
• November 2014 314
• October 2014 236
• September 2014 249
12-month change, in thousands
• November 2013 to 2014: 2,657
• Average: 221
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces
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0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0% 0
1
3
4
7
15
17
20
20
28
32
38
50
86
-15.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0 75.0 90.0 105.0
Mining and Logging
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Information
Government
Other Services*
Transportation and Warehousing*
Financial Activities*
Construction
Manufacturing*
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services*
Retail Trade*
Professional and Business Services*
Over-the-month employment change, November 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands
1-Month Net Change
Prior 12-month average
*denotes significance
Employment growth was broad-based across industries
Over-the-month employment change,November 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces*denotes significance
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Employment growth in 2014 increasing in industries with higher wages
Change in Job Growth vs Average Earnings by Industry,Pick Up (+)/Slow Down (-) in Percentage change in Employment, 2014 vs 2013 (percentage points)
*Excludes Temporary Help Services (shown separately).Note: Data for 2014 through November. Average earnings for Temporary Help Services lags one month and is not seasonally adjustedSource: CEA Calculations, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces
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Average hourly earnings growth steady at 2.1%, but low inflation has resulted in some small real wage growth
Average hourly earnings, all private sector employees, January 2007 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces
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Unemployment unchanged over the month,remains lowest since July 2008
Civilian unemployment rate, by duration of unemployment,January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps
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Why are employment and unemployment different?Different surveys, different concepts, & different error
Household survey adjusted to payroll survey concept,January 2004 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, www.bls.gov/cps http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf
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Labor force participation steady since October 2013
November 2014: 62.8%
October 2014: 62.8%
September 2014: 62.7%
November 2013: 63.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate,January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted
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Employment rate age 25 to 54, flat this month significantly up from November 2013
Employment to Population
November 2014: 76.9%
October 2014: 76.9%
September 2014: 76.7%
November 2013: 76.0%
Employment-to-Population Ratio and Labor Force Participation, age 25 to 54, January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps
Labor Force Participation
November 2014: 80.8%
October 2014: 80.8%
September 2014: 80.7%
November 2013: 80.9%
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Involuntary part-time employment ticked downdown significantly since November 2013, but still above pre-recession
Part time for economic reasons,as a percent of total employment, seasonally adjusted, 2004 to 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps
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2.0 million jobseekers found employment, 2.2 million dropped out of the labor force
Labor Force Status Flows out of Unemployment,January 1990 to November 2014, seasonally adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps
Dr. Heidi ShierholzChief Economist
UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OF LABOR