Business insatellite navigation

An overview of market developments and emerging applications

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Executivesummary

Introduction

Satellite navigation technology is increasinglyused in almost all sectors of activities. Itshigh-performance standards already make itan essential tool for very demandingprofessional, commercial and scientificapplications. It is now becoming part of amore general concept – that of“infomobility”- where users receiveinformation tailored to their needs, andpertaining to their precise location.

Converging factors have favoured thisremarkable expansion.The proliferation ofcommunication networks and geographicinformation systems, together with theoverall decrease of cost, size and powerconsumption of satellite navigation receivershave driven the market towards high-volume consumer applications.The publicsector also plays a major role by constantlyimproving satellite navigation systems andsetting up a regulatory framework, whichmaximises the use of satellite navigationservices to increase safety and efficiency ofall types of transport modes.

This paper examines how Global NavigationSatellite Systems (GNSS) technology hasevolved over the past years and allowed for

expansion into a wide range of sectors. Itprovides existing market examples as wellas a sample of commercial products thathave emerged recently. It analyses thefactors that are driving the emergence ofhundreds of applications in various domainssuch as aviation, maritime, communications,leisure, timing, science, agriculture. It makesan assessment of the economic importanceof all activities generated by this technology,either at the level of manufacturers for theproduction of receivers, or at the level ofsystem integrators for the development ofnovel applications and value-added services.The main outcome of this analysis is thatthe market is on the brink of an even widerexpansion of applications, representing ahuge economic gain in terms of industrialproducts and services provision, as shown inFigure 1.

In this context, the European contributionsto satellite navigation infrastructures, knownas EGNOS and GALILEO, are fundamental:they will trigger the expansion of themarket by providing decisive positioningperformance improvements and will securesafety applications and financial investmentsby granting services guarantees and clarityregarding liability.

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Market evolution: total annual global turnover for satellite navigation1

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Current market situation

The annual global market growth rate forsatellite navigation products and serviceshas been quite substantial over the pastfour years, with an average annual increaseof 25%. In the difficult economic situationof the recent years, very few other marketshave shown such a positive trend.

The overall industrial chain for navigationand services is rapidly evolving, moving fromstand-alone navigation products to servicesprovision based on a combination ofnavigation and communication/informationtechnologies.

The average position determination for civilapplications has reached levels better than10 m. As satellite navigation applicationsexpand, companies are demonstrating theircapacity to develop new products, toimprove their competitiveness through theirextensive know-how and eventually increasethe market further.

Main market drivers

Ingenuity of manufacturers, serviceproviders and research institutes hasallowed for the development of newtechniques that further increase systemcapabilities and open the door to evenmore applications. Differential satellitenavigation techniques, based on codemeasurements, lead now to metricpositioning accuracies, whilst phasemeasurement techniques reach centimetreor even millimetre accuracy.

European navigation initiatives will furthercontribute to the rapid evolution of themarket, as they will significantly improveperformances, initially in 2004 with EGNOSand in 2008 with GALILEO. Particularcharacteristics of the latter, such as globalintegrity signals and service guarantees, will

strengthen user and service providersconfidence, hence favouring the furtherdevelopment of safety-critical and mass-market commercial applications.

Technological progress (receiverminiaturisation and power consumptionreduction), impact favourably upon satellitenavigation receivers size and cost, withcomponent prices falling at a rate of 25-30% per year. Handheld receivers arealready being offered at less than G50.

These trends, linked with the constantimprovement of other technologies such asGeographical Information Systems ormobile communications networks providethe necessary base to support the use ofsatellite navigation technology for high-volume consumer applications.

New emerging applications

New developments are expected, based onmass consumer markets for both hand-heldand in-vehicle devices, that will acceleratemarket growth in the following years.Professional and highly demandingapplications are increasingly dependent onsatellite navigation technologies. Civilaviation is moving towards satellitenavigation as a primary means for navigationand the maritime sector is increasinglyreliant on GNSS and Differential GNSS foropen-ocean as well as harbour and in-landnavigation. In the rail domain, thesetechniques will facilitate train signalling andtraffic management, allowing for increase ofline capacity and efficiency.

The mass-market is also rapidly evolving,and is spurred by mobile phonedevelopment to achieve new types ofservices combining the users position withall types of data information. Regulationrelated with locating accurately the positionof emergency calls made via wireless

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communications (E911 in the U.S. and E112in Europe) gives a further stimulus.Themarket is highly competitive and requiresmanufacturers and service providers toinvest development efforts at a very earlystage.

Road applications are also a huge GNSSmarket, with a wide range of applicationsranging from “infotainment”, through toroad tolling and emergency applications.Thenumber of cars sold every year, 14 millionsin the EU in 2000, gives an idea of thepotential size of this market.

Market forecast

Forecast for future global markets andapplications for navigation show that thisindustry is at the beginning of a largeexpansion, with a global turnover of E15billion in 2001, which is predicted to riseto E140 billion by 2015.

Initially characterised by a strong product-oriented dominance, it is expected thatservice provision will rapidly play animportant role in the satellite navigationmarket.

1 Executive summary ..........................................................................................................................................................................................3

2 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................7

3 Global market forecast..............................................................................................................................................................................8

4 Overview of the current market ...........................................................................................................................................11

5 Emerging GNSS applications....................................................................................................................................................135.1 Location Based Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135.2 Road applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165.3 Aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .175.4 Maritime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185.5 Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .195.6 Oil and Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205.7 Precision Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215.8 Fisheries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215.9 Survey and marine engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215.10 Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225.11 Electricity networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225.12 Social . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225.13 Customs, Justice and home affairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .235.14 Leisure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

6 Assessment of market drivers .................................................................................................................................................256.1 Identification of market drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .256.2 Technological trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

6.2.1 Receivers technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .266.2.2 Geographic Information System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .286.2.3 Synergies with mobile telecommunication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .286.2.4 EGNOS and GALILEO differentiators and benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

6.3 Regulation and policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................33

Figure 1: Market evolution: total annual global turnover for satellite navigation . . . . . . .3Figure 2: Overall value-added chain for navigation products and services . . . . . . . . . . . . .7Figure 3: Overall value-added chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Figure 4: Annual net turnovers for satellite navigation products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Figure 5: Annual gross turnovers for satellite navigation products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9Figure 6: Global net turnovers by application in 2001 and in 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Figure 7: Global annual satellite navigation product and services turnovers . . . . . . . . . .10Figure 8: Consolidated view of satellite navigation markets from 1994 to 2001 . . . . . . . .11Figure 9: Global satellite navigation turnovers in 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12Figure 10: Number of mobile phones in use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Figure 11: Wireless global location-based services turnover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Figure 12: Driving factors for satellite navigation development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25Figure 13: Decrease in receivers voltage need . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Figure 14: Power consumption reduction trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Figure 15: Trend in cost reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27Figure 16: Receivers average cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27Figure 17: Positioning accuracy through GPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Figure 18: Positioning accuracy through GPS and EGNOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Figure 19: Positioning accuracy through GPS, EGNOS and GALILEO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30

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User

ServiceProvider

CommunicationsProvider

InformationContent

e.g. maps,traffic information

Products

Services

e.g. mobile telephonyor satellitecommunications

e.g. Air Traffic Management,fleet management,road charging services

e.g. chipsets,antennas

hand-heldor for

integration

e.g. avionics,in -car

systems

e.g. car, planeor mobile

phone

NavigationSystems

Platform Receivers Components

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Introduction 2Ever since the launch of the first satellitenavigation systems for military purposes(GPS in the United States and GLONASSin Russia), companies worldwide have beendeveloping products and services tostimulate and serve a civilian market forpositioning technology. From a baseline ofprofessional equipment for surveying andcivil engineering, continued innovation intechnology has led to huge improvementsin the price and performance of equipment.In tandem, entrepreneurs have continued todevelop new applications and spawn newbusinesses to serve growing markets. Today,several thousand companies are alreadyinvolved in satellite navigation deviceproduction and service provision,encompassing a large diversity of marketsfar outstripping anything that could havebeen envisaged even ten years ago.

As the market grows in size, it alsodevelops in structure. Starting from anindustry that supplied stand-alone navigation

units, the situation has developed tocombine both navigation andcommunication technologies as shown inFigure 2.

Satellite navigation receivers are nowcommonly integrated into other devices,including in-car navigation systems, fleetmanagement systems, and increasingly alsointo mobile phones and Personal DigitalAssistants (PDAs). The product business iscomplemented by a rapidly developingservice industry that integrates digitalmapping, bundled with mobilecommunications to deliver packagedservices to end-users.

Overall value-added chain for navigation products and services2

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Global market forecast 3

Input information and assumptions havebeen combined into a comprehensivemodel, based on the total potentialaddressable market for each separateapplication. Market take-up is thenestimated and information on currentpricing and future trends is used to producea turnover model. In view of the diversity ofthe overall supply chain for navigationproducts and services described in Figure 2,forecasts are made regarding the specificsegments of the market, notably:

“Net turnover” the turnovers directlyassociated withpositioning systemshardware,

“Gross turnover” the turnovers associatedwith the entire navigationsystem in which thepositioning system isplaced.

This is shown in Figure 3.

The overall conservative predictions forglobal annual net product turnovers until2020 are shown in Figure 4.This modelindicates a global net turnover of G4 billionin 2001, surging to as much as G25 billionby 2020.

As depicted in Figure 5, the actual grossturnover figure in 2001 totalled G15 billion,with predictions leading to figures as high asG150 billion by 2020.

Those figures show that the marketcharacteristics are under evolution: from animportant percentage being taken bycomponents and receivers market (basicbuilding blocks) in 2001, it shift towards amore mature and integrated systemsmarket in 2020 (applications turn-keysolutions).

Overall value-added chain3

User

ServiceProvider

CommunicationsProvider

InformationContent

e.g. maps,traffic information

Net turnovere.g. mobile telephonyor satellitecommunications

e.g. Air Traffic Management,fleet management,road charging services

NavigationSystems

Platform Receivers Components

Gross turnover

Products

Services

e.g. avionics,in -car

systems

e.g. car, planeor mobile

phone

hand-heldor for

integration

e.g. chipsets,antennas

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North America, Europe and the Pacific Rimare the dominant markets for the next fiveyears. In fact, these three markets hold intotal over 60% of the global market for theentire forecast period. However, after 2007,increased consumer spending in CentralAsia and in Central and South America isexpected to develop significant markets inthese areas. The model incorporatesassumptions about declining prices over

time, which are particularly noticeable in theelectronics industry. For this reason, oncedeveloped markets become saturated andsales are driven by product replacement,declining prices result in reduced overallturnovers in these markets. In practice,entirely new applications and products thathave not yet even been envisaged areexpected to stimulate future marketgrowth.

Annual net turnovers for satellite navigation products4

Annual gross turnovers for satellite navigation products5

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The breakdown on net turnovers byapplication is shown in Figure 6. The roadtelematics market is expected to dominatethroughout the period. However there willbe an important relative shift fromcommercial (and professional) to consumermarkets, the latter being sustained by themobile communication developments(advent of 3rd generation UMTS system,emergency services, etc.). Consumermarkets account for around 40% of thetotal today, a figure that will rise to 75% by2015.

A further significant development expectedover the period corresponds to the growthof turnovers associated with services. Atpresent, the product market dominatesturnovers, and service turnovers are mostlyderived from the commercial fleet

management market. In the consumerautomotive market, navigation products arestill relatively expensive (in the order ofthousands of euro) and the take up of valueadded services is still relatively low.

However, as the number of users increasesin both mass-market car and hand-heldsegments, the potential for serviceturnovers also increases. Economies ofscale for suppliers, maturing serviceofferings and network effects will allcombine to increase the value of theservice market. The trend is shown inFigure 7.

The current service turnovers of G2.3billion represent 12% of the total market. By2020, service turnovers will grow to G112billion or 43% of the total market value.

Global net turnovers by application in 2001 and in 20156

Global annual satellite navigation product and services turnovers7

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Overview of thecurrent market

Based on a number of market analysisreports, and on reported sales statisticsfrom leading companies, a consolidatedview of the development of the GlobalNavigation Satellite System market over thepast 8 years has been derived.This is shownin Figure 8.

The global market annual compoundgrowth rate over the past 4 years averages27%, a very high rate compared to mostother sectors (e.g. telecommunications). Inthe 5 years from 1996 to 2000, theproportion of global turnovers derived

from US markets has reduced from almost60% to just below 40%, showing theexpansion of the use of satellitetechnologies on a world-wide scale. Theproportion of turnovers from the mainworld markets in 2001 is shown in Figure 9.United States companies remain dominantin the supply of products, though thisposition is beginning to shift. In the 5 yearsfrom 1996 to 2001 the share of the globalmarket held by United States suppliers fellfrom 65% to 50%, indicating the spreadingof knowledge and know-how related tothese technologies.

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Consolidated view of satellite navigation markets from 1994 to 20018

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An indicator of the potential trend in thefuture can be found in the number ofpatents. Most of the satellite navigation-related patents have so far been taken byJapanese industries (in the range of 3,500),followed by United States companies(1,500). Patents filed by Europeancompanies count for less than a third of the

Japanese patents (1,000). In general, thematurity of the market is shown by the factthat the total number of new patents eachyear is decreasing. It is expected that theadvent of GALILEO will boost the patent-filing exercise, opening the door for newopportunities and new GALILEO industrialplayers.

Global satellite navigation turnovers in 20019

Emerging GNSSapplications

In this chapter, some applications that haveshown very promising developments arepresented.

The Location Based Services (LBS) market,with its enormous potential, is firstdescribed. In particular, four main LBScategories, i.e. information and navigationservices, emergency assistance, trackingservices and network-related services, areexamined in detail and their expectedconsiderable revenues explained.

Four important transport domains, i.e. road,aviation, maritime and rail are alsopresented, giving for each sector an insightof the present markets, the possibilities fordevelopment and the new markets openedby GALILEO.

Finally, specific applications such as oil andgas and precision agriculture are addressed,in view of the improvements in exploitationtechniques made achievable by satellitenavigation technologies.

A complete analysis of GNSS applicationswould include the review of almost allsectors of activity like fisheries, insurance,leisure, water management, environmentmonitoring, support to people withdisabilities, consumer protection,meteorology, science, timing, etc..

5.1 Location Based Services

The LBS market is currently segmented intofour categories:

• Information and navigation services, whichprovide data directly to end-users, inparticular destination location and criteriafor journey optimisation.

• Emergency assistance, which provide thelocation of mobile users in case ofdistress and need for assistance.

• Tracking services, which provide locationdata.

• Network related services, whereknowledge of user position improvescommunication services.

The potential market for LBS applications isenormous, as it is correlated to theexpansion of the mobile phone market.Thismarket, which is still growing, reached 860million subscribers in September 2002. It isestimated that when the growth rate slowsdown in the European region as the marketapproaches saturation, it will be followed bya spurt in growth in Central Asia (mainlydriven by China), and good growth in India.Market forecasts indicate that 2.7 billionmobile phones will be in use worldwide in2020.The geographical breakdown can beseen in Figure 10.

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Number of mobile phones in use10

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Adding the facility to compute the locationof a mobile subscriber will enable telecomoperators to focus on a very large market.As depicted in Figure 11, anticipated worldwireless LBS turnovers will surge from

approximately G1 billion in 2000 to overG40 billion in 2006.

ARC Group announced in a report,published in August 2002, that location-based services will account for over 40% ofoperators' mobile data services turnoversin 2007.

There are regional characteristics in the LBSmarket. In Japan, for several years, numerousin-car navigation services have beendeployed, mainly for information andguidance purposes. New services based onthe implementation of satellite navigationchipsets in mobile phones are alreadyavailable.

KKDI recently launched a mobile phoneservice named “GPS Keitai”. Among thevarious services offered, the user can locatehimself on a map, ask for personalisedinformation regarding a point of interest(such as restaurants) or a trip (such asdirections) but also train or metrotimetables. By February 2002, 420,000mobiles phones with integrated satellitenavigation functionality had been sold.

Since June 2002 KDDI,Toyota andMatsushita Electrics are proposing a servicethat broadcasts a message with preciseinformation related to user location.Theservice, HelpNet Keitai, based on mobilehandsets integrating navigation chipsets, isdedicated to emergency calls. It is offered ata rate of G2.7 per month. It is envisaged toreach 150,000 subscribers by mid 2005.

In the USA, the current location-basedmarket is in a phase of rapid development.Since October 2001, wireless operatorsmust be prepared to conform to thesecond phase of 911 Emergency Callregulations and provide a service thatbroadcasts the caller's location data withhigh accuracy characteristics (50 m for 67%of calls when considering handset-basedsolutions such as Assisted-GPS).

Wireless global location-based services turnover11

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In September 2002, Intrado Inc. announcedthat it had teamed with the Greater HarrisCounty 9-1-1 Emergency Network andleading vendors, including Ford MotorCompany, to install telematics, i.e. integratedtelecommunications and informationprocessing for vehicle systems, in police carsin the Houston area.

By combining satellite navigation trackingand wireless communications, the newtelematic systems will offer automatic post-collision notification integrated into thecurrent E-911 emergency networks. In theevent of collision, onboard systemsimmediately transmit alerts along withdetails such as location, magnitude andnumber of passengers involved toemergency response centres operated byCross Country Automotive Services.

Based on the investment required tocomply with this regulation, US operatorsare proposing and deploying more andmore commercial LBS for mass market orprofessional applications.

In July 2002,Wherify Wireless announcedthat consumers could now order Wherify'ssatellite navigation Personal Locator forChildren.Wherify's GPS Personal Locatorfor Children sells for some G400, plus amonthly service charge.Wherify is alsodeveloping a Personal Locator forAlzheimer's patients, as well as a vehiclelocator.

In August 2002, Crimestopper SecurityProducts had developed with Satronics newautomated wireless automotive securitytechnology based on satellite navigation.Using phone or Internet interfaces, thesystem automatically notifies a user whenhis vehicle has been tampered with orstolen and provides event-specific messages.

In Europe, location-based services arestarting to develop. Several applications arenow spreading, creating new marketopportunities. Emergency services acrossthe European Union receive around 80million calls every year. 40 million of theseare from mobiles and this number is stillgrowing.

In 2002, a directory service was on themarket in 1,600 German cities, availablethrough Vodafone.Working off a technologydeveloped by Troy, the service helps peoplemap their evenings out by giving directionsto the nearest clubs, cinemas, petrolstations, cash machines, etc..

Webraska offers a service in Britain called"Pub Finder" that provides a list of thenearest watering holes. Once users find abar, they can inform friends of their locationby sending the pub's name and address in aquick text message.

In 2001, SignalSoft and Orange Denmarklaunched a location-based game calledZonemaster, which is a “battle for land”which takes place in the real world, on realmaps, utilising real physical location. Basedon a large marketing campaign, the resultantbusiness was very profitable.

In 2002,Telenor Mobil conducted a verypositive Pilot Study based on the Friendfinder application, with a high level of usersatisfaction.

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5.2 Road applications

The road sector is a major potential marketfor GNSS applications. Satellite navigationreceivers are now commonly installed incars as a key tool for providing newservices to people on the move such aselectronic charging, real time trafficinformation, emergency calls, routeguidance, fleet management or advancedriving assistance systems.

By 2010 there will be more than 670million cars, 33 million buses and trucks and200 million light commercial vehicles world-wide.

It is estimated that the uptake of GNSS usein this market will occur over the next 5-10years, with Europe taking the lead in thisrespect. In 2020, there will be over 450million cars with GNSS-based navigationsystems onboard.

It is expected that in-car navigation systemswill be “dual mode”, i.e. based on GALILEOand GPS.The average price will tend, as inthe computer industry, to stabilise around aminimum value, in this case around G500(the constant increase in the number offunctionality, improvement in man-machineinterfaces, etc.).With these assumptions, thetotal annual gross turnovers from thismarket will reach G25 billion in 2016.

This trend is based upon the replacementcycle of new cars, with the after-salesmarket size remaining marginal.

A number of interesting developments inthis market will also favour its deployment:• The availability of route guidance systems

that incorporate near real-time trafficinformation.This type of service is easilyexpanded to offer other types oflocation-based services.

• Car manufacturers (Ford, BMW, Renault,Daimler) are diversifying their businessesand are providing, or plan to provide,telematic services to their customers. Insome cases, they are forming strategicpartnerships to develop and operate suchinformation provision.

Under an initiative of the Germangovernment to install a highway toll systemfor trucks, the ETC consortium(DaimlerChrysler Services, DeutscheTelecom and Cofiroute) is implementing forthe end of 2003 a several billion Ginfrastructure, named “Toll collect”, basedon satellite navigation services. 600,000trucks will automatically transmit variousparameters as the accumulated number ofkilometres, truck weight, number of axles,etc.The centralised toll centre will preparebilling to truck owners. ETC expects yearlyearnings in the order of G600 million.

To improve police and emergency centreactivities, the DaimlerChrysler TELEAIDsystem determines the location of carsinvolved in accidents.The system transmitsfurther information, such as personal dataabout driver or vehicle characteristic, formore efficient intervention assistance.

As toll systems are being implemented inseveral European countries (e.g. GreatBritain,The Netherlands, Austria) forhighways, roads or urban areas, adequateaccuracy, availability and continuity isrequired. One hour of loss of signaldisruption a year, which corresponds to anavailability of 0.9998, would lead to a loss ofapproximately G400,000 for the Toll Collectsystem in Germany. GALILEO will bring thenecessary performances levels for theseapplications.

Cpyright Airbus

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5.3 Aviation

In aeronautical applications, satellitepositioning and timing services have longbeen an additional means of navigation.They provide supplementary service formany flight phases, in leisure flying as well ascommercial air transport.

In the European Union, some 5,000 civilaircrafts are currently registered, with anadditional 30,000 small private planes inuse.

In recent years, scheduled traffic hasincreased by about 4% per year worldwide,doubling the number of flights within 20years. Higher navigation accuracy andservice integrity are required to allowaircraft separation reduction, allowing forincrease of traffic capacity.

EGNOS and GALILEO will assist pilots in allflight phases, from movement on theground to take-off, en-route flying andlanding in all weather conditions, reachingthe level of safety that will be required tocope with the continuous increase in thenumber of flights. GALILEO, with the aid ofground-based local elements, will satisfy theneeds for precision approach as defined inthe aeronautical standards.

Air traffic controllers need position, heading,speed and time information for thecontinuous management of all aircraft. Someareas of the world, like in the CanaryIslands, lack the appropriate groundinfrastructure, including secondary radar andcommunication links. Standardizedtransmission of GALILEO navigation datawill lead to advanced systems andtechniques for safer air traffic monitoring.

All other aviation-related operations, likeairport surface movement and guidancecontrol, require precise assistance from airtraffic controllers. Airports may have surfaceradar, but sometimes pilots report taximovements manually and aircraft aremanaged using visual aids only.This has leadto severe accidents. Satellite navigation andGALILEO in particular will improveoperations safety.

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5.4 Maritime

Open ocean and inland waterways are themost widely used mode for transportinggoods worldwide. A wide variety of vesselsmove around the world each day.

The European Union merchant fleet iscomposed of around 10,000 ships withregistered tonnage of 1,000 or above.About 25,000 people are employed by themajor European Ferry Operators.

The efficiency, safety and optimisation ofmarine transportation are key issues.Satellite navigation is becoming afundamental tool for bringing innovationand progress this sector and many othermarine activities such as fishing,oceanography and oil and gas exploitationwill also benefit from the availability ofGALILEO services.

Increased accuracy and integrity, certifiedservices and high availability brought byGALILEO will be applied to leisure boats,commercial vessels and all ships falling underthe Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) conventionin every phase of marine navigation, i.e. ocean,coastal, port approach and harbourmanoeuvres, under all weather conditions.

For marine navigation regulated by theInternational Maritime Organisation,GALILEO will be an additional means ofimplementing the regulations on AutomaticIdentification Systems (AIS) and vessel trafficmanagement systems to increase navigationsafety and collision prevention.

All maritime commercial activities arestarting to use satellite navigation. In fishing,it helps locate traps and nets. Fleetmanagement, cargo monitoring, and deliveryand loading schedules are optimised. Eventhe location of shipping containers can be

facilitated, and satellite navigation could beused for automatic piloting of barges.Withinharbours, a system for information servicestailored to each ship’s location is beingconsidered.

Handling of containers is crucial for efficientcommercial harbour operations.Traffic ofgoods in European ports reaches 40 millioncontainers a year. Systems are underdevelopment to equip containers withstandardised positioning devices allowingbetter logistics operations.

The University of New Brunswick hasdeveloped a new satellite navigationguidance system to steer giant port cranespast stationary containers.The cranes’actions are controlled to centimetre levelaccuracy.

In inland waterways, accuracy and integrityof navigation data are essential to automateaccurate manoeuvres in narrow rivers andcanals.

The total length of inland waterways in the15 EU Member States reaches 30,000 km.Goods volume in 2000 was about 125,000millions of tons per kilometre.

The GALILEO system also contributes tothe international search and rescue service,enhancing the worldwide performance ofthe current COSPAS-SARSAT system.Theactual positioning accuracy is rather poor(typically a few kilometres) and alerts arenot always issued in real-time.TheGALILEO search and rescue service willdrastically reduce the Time To Alert (fromhour to minutes), and the position of thedistress beacon will be determined towithin a few metres.

So far restricted to a professional-type usercommunity, there are some 200,000COSPAS-SARSAT beacons in existencetoday. It has been shown that the marketwill rapidly grow to a few million beaconsafter the advent of GALILEO. In its 20 yearsof operation, the satellite rescue system hashelped save close to 14,000 peopleworldwide

5.5 Rail

With a network of 150,000 kilometres oflines, general trend in the European railwaysis the standardisation process of the mainsubsystems involved in railway operations, inorder to reach efficient interoperability. Inparticular, the European Rail TrafficManagement System (ERTMS) is becomingthe European standard for train control,signalling and traffic management.

Two layers of ERTMS can rely on satellitenavigation: the European Train ControlSystem (ETCS), which deals with traincontrol and protection and the EuropeanTraffic Management Layer (ETML) dealingwith non safety of life related aspects liketraffic management and regulation.

For safety-of-life applications, variousconsortia have formed to investigatepotential opportunities. Gaderos, aconsortium formed by several europeancompanies (Ineco,Tifsa, Erri,Thales, Railwaysafety, GMV, Sener and Aena) proposes raillocation units based on satellite navigationtechnology. Other consortia are seekinginteroperability with ETCS or proposingdedicated solution for low density trafficlines.These include Locoprol/Locoloc(Trasys, Alstom, Septentrio, SNCB), Rune(Laben,ViaRail, Ansaldo, Intecs), Integrail(Kayser-Threde, Adtranz, IfEN) or Eco-rail(Technicatome, Alcatel,Teleconsult, Stern &Hafferl, Systra and ST Microelectronics).

Current technologies used for location ofrail vehicles and trains in Europe areground-based solutions, with highequipment and maintenance costs. Use ofsatellite navigation will reduce cost, allowingcheap train signalling and trafficmanagement systems whilst simultaneoulsyincreasing line capacity and efficiency.

In the non safety-of-life application sector,many national train fleets use satellitenavigation for fleet management, includingcertain United Kingdom fleets (mainlyfreight), SNCF in France and DB inGermany.

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These systems, along with propercommunications infrastructure, allowtracking and monitoring of rolling stocks,especially of locomotives, enablingoperators to efficiently track the position oftheir resources.

With a view to half a million transportwagons and some 100,000 vehicles(including locomotives and passengertransport vehicles) in use today, GALILEOperformances offer opportunities to enter alarge professional European market withspecific needs.

FGC (Ferrocarriles Generalitat Catalunya) inSpain is already implementing the SITCASsystem for Traffic monitoring of its network,allowing control centres to receive real timeinformation on train location and speed.

Kaiser-Threde in Germany commercialisesthe Railtrac-Kt system to supervise andlocate mobile objects (e.g. containers,wagons, construction machines). Routes,timetables, operating condition, loads andtemperatures of 13,000 wagons aremonitored using existing satellite navigationinfrastructures. Unplanned stops or faultsare reported via GSM or satellitecommunication links. It is planned to use thesystem for the transport of dangerousgoods in Russia.

In the rail sector, other applications are alsodesigned for proximity alarms, triggeringreports when two trains on the same trackare too close and velocity limit alarms toreport that a train is surpassing the allowedspeed for that section of the track.

For track survey purposes, satellitenavigation services are not only used forconstruction work where very precise

differential techniques are used but also forvideo recorded track survey techniques, asdone, for instance, in the UK.

More sophisticated applications are beingdesigned. It is known that train tilting incurves improves passenger comfort. Up tonow the detection of curves is performedthrough a combination of accelerometersand other sensors.The use of satellitenavigation services, along with trackinformation (curve radius, location, etc.) isbeing studied and tested to improveperformance of such systems.

5.6 Oil and Gas

The oil and gas industry is largely usingsatellite navigation for onshore and offshoreoperations, both in exploration andexploitation activities. Accuracy levelsbetween 0.5 and 1.0 m up to 1,000 kmoffshore are commonly expected.Thepromise of GALILEO is of great interest tothis sector since it provides a secondindependent system for activities wherehigh costs associated with exploration andexploitation do not tolerate any errors anddelays.

Whether geophysical exploitation,geotechnical evaluation, rig and platformservices, underwater inspection, underwaterconstruction support services, pipe layingand pipeline surveys etc., most, if not all, ofthese operations rely heavily on thepositioning accuracy.

In the global market, a few companies likeFugro,Thales GeoSolutions operate satellitenavigation differential services, which allowfor “decimetre” accuracy. NavComTechnology Inc. distributes time satelliteposition and clock via the Internet.

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Development of systems using satellitenavigation to monitor and prevent accidentfor the security of gas transport (pipelines)and storage infrastructures in the RussianFederation and the Newly IndependentStates are under way.

5.7 Precision Agriculture

Precision Agriculture applications includethe measurement of crop yield duringharvesting, management of soil sampling andweeds, variable rate fertiliser spreading,auditing of fertiliser, insecticide andherbicides, autonomous farm machinery ortracking of animal movements through theaddition of short range tagging technology.Corn and soybeans producers have testedsystems to improve management of soilacidity and lime application (reduction oflime need by 60%) based on the use ofsatellite navigation. Hybridisation withsatellite imagery has already demonstratedlarge benefits.

Federal authorities responsible for animalsand livestock in Arkansas have invested insatellite navigation equipment to improveidentification operations in emergency caseslike foot-and-mouth disease or poultrydisease.

Agriculture is of major economicsignificance and farmers and relatedindustry are seeking ways in which todifferentiate their new products in order toboost their sales through improvedefficiency.

Trimble recently started to commercialiseits AgGPS Autopilot system, based ondifferential satellite navigation.The systemguides agriculture vehicle in consistent rowsfor tilling, spraying and applying fertilisers.

5.8 Fisheries

As sea resources decrease, specificmeasures are being taken to monitor andcontrol the activities of the fishing sector.The current reform of the EU fishery policywill make the technology indispensable.

Simultaneously, fishermen are investing insatellite technology in order to direct theirboats to good fishing waters, saving fuel andtime.

The fishery department in the U.K. hascalled on Precise positioning Products Inc.and Applied Satellite Technology Ltd. toequip some 1,500 fishing vessels with theAEGIS system for monitoring of fishingactivities and comprehensive intelligence onthe state of all fishing areas monitored.

Escotel and BPL Mobile, two large mobilephone operators in India, estimate that 10%of their customer are fishermen (thecountry counts some 1 million activefishermen).

5.9 Survey and marineengineering

Satellite navigation has revolutionisedhydrographic surveying. Most marineengineering activities benefit from satellitenavigation, like dredging and maintenance ofharbours and waterways, mappingunderwater obstacles during hydrographicsurveys, pipe and cable laying, and mineraland aggregate extraction.

Ice-breaking ships in the arctic start to usesatellite navigation to adjust their paths inthe shipping lines according to ice thickness.

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5.10 Science

Satellite navigation technologies areproviding tools for science andenvironmental studies like the observationof tides and currents.The deployment ofmoving buoys reporting their positionshelps scientists to study the oceans andseas, generating information to merge withdata from different sources (e.g. Earthobservation and remote sensing) in acomprehensive and integrated approach tothe study of the environment.

The Nebraska Parks Commission hasrecently completed, with the help ofsatellite navigation technology, newtopographic maps of 13 lakes andreservoirs to help managing waterresources and assist aquatic habitat projects.

Animal movements are studied in manyresearch centres: for example, grizzly bearsmovements, habitats and migration paths ofsharks, movements of birds around theworld, all help us understand mobilitypatterns of wildlife, hence masteringessential data for the preservation of ourecosystem.

Earthquake warning systems based onsatellite navigation are being developedprimarily in seismic areas and close tovolcanoes.

Taiwan has implemented such an alertsystem and California has built a network of250 satellite navigation stations to monitorearth movements. Newcastle University inU.K. gauges movements in the earth’s crust.

5.11 Electricity networks

For their synchronisation, power distributionnetworks use the very accurate timingfunctions of satellite navigation.

Electronic mapping systems are also used toreduce power outage time by as much as20%.

In Alabama, 30,000 transformers, 60,000utility poles and a large set of customershave been mapped with positioningsystems.When customer’s power goes out,systems operators can determine the exactlocation and nature of the problem.

The electricity network company Vector hasintroduced a mobile and computer systemfor field crews which is believed to save halfa million G a year.

5.12 Social

People with disabilities will soon benefitfrom the latest satellite navigationtechnology.Various research institutes haveinvested into wearable computer systems tocreate navigational aids to blind people.

The Sendero group allocated some G2million grant in 2001 to researchers for thedevelopment of satellite navigation-basedsystems to guide blind people whereverthey go.

The Geodetics Laboratory of the SwissFederal Institute of Technology (EPFL) withLeica Vectronix have developed apedestrian navigation module weighing lessthan 150 grams at the size of a portablephone.This ergonomic system suppliespositioning data for blind navigation to bringpeople to their destinations.

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Keeping track of people can be of greatvalue. Lightweight devices are alreadyavailable on the market.While privacyconcerns have been raised, it is expectedthat some well-defined applications willemerge rapidly.

Wherify commercialise a personal locatorsystem for children which is worn as awatch and can determine a child’s locationin minutes. Applied Digital Solutionproduces the “Digital Angel” product, acombination of watch and clip-on trackingdevice. GPSTracks is proposing both thehuman and animal tracking devices.Theseproducts are sold for some G400, withmonthly fees in the range of G30.

The insurance industry has shown realinterest into the possibilities offered by theadvent of mature satellite navigationtechnologies. Using such techniques canimprove safety and permit to retrieve lostgoods in a faster way.

Norwich Union Insurance is researchingdirect payment for motor vehicle insurancebased on the active use of the vehicle.Thetrial involves 7,000 volunteer customersand, if positive, will result into commercialinsurance products of a new type.

In Canada, Grey Island Systems hasequipped the snowploughs of the city ofVaughan with receivers. Citizens can see livedigital maps through internet displayinginformation on where those vehicles areworking with respect to their own location.

5.13 Customs, Justice and home affairs

In the field of justice, customs, police, etc.various applications are already beingimplemented.Vehicle theft represents anannual cost of some G8 billion in the U.S.

Specific policies to combat vehicle crime arebeing proposed in the EU, in terms ofstandard for tracking and tracing systems ofvehicles and development of after-alarmprocedures for private security branchesand police.

Satellite navigation monitoring givesgovernments cheap alternatives toincarceration and allows offenders anopportunity to continue working and livingat home.

Veridian is selling Veritracks, an electronictracking systems that allows tracking ofsuspects and criminals around theirneighbourhoods and comparing theinformation with recent crimes. It isestmaited that the savings are in the orderof G50 a day per offender with respect tojail.

Coastguards also make use of satellitenavigation to help maritime borders controlactivities, whether for smugglers or otherillegal activities surveillance.

Customs administration are investigating thepossibilities to deploy systems allowing tointerrogate trucks transporting variousgoods to check whether they are still onthe most direct route to their finaldestination.When unexpected movementsor operations occur (e.g. the backdoor of atruck opens open before it has reached itsfinal destination) alarms are sent to theclosest customs office with the positioningand identification of the truck.

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5.14 Leisure

This sector is the one where the mostunexpected and sometimes the most exoticapplications are developing.

Huge market can be found by fittingsatellite navigation receivers on cameras andvideo cameras to record the place wherephotos or video sequences were taken, on“intelligent suitcases” that can be recoveredin theft cases.

Suunto, a Finnish company, has started tosell a wristwatch-like personal golfcomputer using satellite navigation.Theproduct, called G9, sold for some G700,allows golfers to measure distance from teeto hole and the length of each shot. Itadvises on the best clubs based on a golfer’shistory, average length of shot and distanceto the green.

Treasure hunting and geocaching arebecome favorite sports in many U.S. statesand European countries. Dedicatedassociations have formed in the last twoyears.

In 2002 there were at least 20,000 “caches”spread over 120 countries.With a fewthousands people registered in the“geocaching” association, close to 100,000people had already tried geocaching.

One location-based tag game is available inparts of Scandinavia and in Ireland.Thegame, developed by a Swedish company incooperation with SignalSoft, called "It'sAlive," has people chasing each otherthrough the streets, virtually gunning downcomplete strangers who are playing thesame game.

In the tourism sector, special visits to towns,museums or castles based on the use ofsatellite navigation receivers are proposed invarious countries.

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Assessment of market drivers

6.1 Identification of market drivers

The trend as illustrated in Figure 8 inestablished markets for satellite navigation ismore than likely to continue in the future,as economic activity drives demand forcommercially-oriented services in all thetransport modes, together with professionalsurveying, timing and scientific applications.

As already stated, in the very near futurenew developments will overlay on thisexisting trend as mass consumer marketsbecome established for both hand-held andin-vehicle devices. This results in a step-change in the market for navigationproducts, with an acceleration of the marketgrowth in the next 2-3 years.

There are a number of important driversthat cause this evolution, though thisdevelopment will come about differently indifferent regions of the world. Thesefactors can be divided into four groups asdepicted on Figure 12.

Technological trends:

• Miniaturisation and receiver advancesimprove price versus performance andfavour its use in portable devices.Advances in geographical informationsystems and digital mapping provide thenecessary data to support new LocationBased Services.

• Mobile communication technologies pushthe markets for positioning and timingservices.

• The European Geo-stationary NavigationOverlay Service (EGNOS) in a first stageand GALILEO in a second stage providefor quantum leaps in satellite navigationperformances, hence stimulating demandand supply industries.

Political and regulatory environment:

• Development and specification of new,more efficient and safer transportnetworks (road, rail, maritime, aviation).

• New directives in fishery policies, inenvironment monitoring, in agriculture,etc.

• New measures to enhancing public andconsumer protection (customs, justice andhome affairs, external relations, etc.).

• Measures in support of people withdisabilities, for regional development orfor humanitarian aid in poor countries,etc..

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Driving factors for satellite navigation development12

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Social factors:

• Increased demand for consumerelectronics.

• Changing work patterns and increasedmobility heighten demand for efficienttravel in both personal and public modes.

• Concerns about transport and personalsafety drive better safety performanceand monitoring needs.

Economic and industrialdevelopments:

• Overall economic activity and productionpatterns drive demand for corporatetransport.

• Pressures within consumer electronicsindustry require maintaining high productreplacement rates.

6.2 Technological trends

6.2.1 Receivers technology

The main trend in receivers is theminiaturisation of the satellite navigationhardware.The progress made in silicontechnology allows for size reduction, powerconsumption reduction, and integration ofadditional functionalities, encompassingcommunication and computation. At thesame time the software content is steadilyincreasing.

The decrease in power consumption andsize of electronics hardware is a majorcondition for receivers to be used inconjunction with mobile handset. Inparticular, the reduction of powerconsumption in electronic devicesdetermines user autonomy. Figure 13 showsthe decrease in receivers internal voltageneeds. As power is proportional to the

Decrease in receivers voltage need 13

Power consumption reduction trend14

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square of the voltage, the diagramsdemonstrate the very significant decrease inpower needs (Figure 14), which in turnstranslate to much larger receiver autonomy(i.e. leading to much smaller battery sizeand an increased number of hours withoutthe need for re-charging).These factorsimpact most applications, where noconnection to fixed power supplies isavailable.

The integration of satellite navigationmodules within mobile communicationhandsets is, no doubt, one of the biggestevolutions over the next decade for themass-market user.This will allow thedevelopment of smaller terminals, which willsupport Location Based Services, gatheringposition and commercial information. It isworth noting that emergent techniques like“software” radio (i.e. using appropriatesoftware on to the same hardwarecomponents for both navigation and

communication functions), might alsopromote dual use of the terminal.Theactual ability to reduce the cost per functionby an average of 25-30% each yearrepresents one of the unique features ofthe semiconductor industry and has a directconsequence on the ability to doublefunctionalities on chipsets every 1.5 years inan environment of constant prices. Figure15 shows identified trends in MicroController Unit prices, taking an integratedtransistor as a reference.The cost reductionis observed for development costs, whenthe product is introduced within the market(year one), and without taking into accountfurther cost reductions that could resultfrom mass production.

The cost reduction of elementaryintegrated functions as depicted aboveimpacts directly on receivers unit cost,which is falling at a rate of nearly 30% peryear as shown on Figure 16.

Trend in cost reduction15

Receivers average cost16

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6.2.2 Geographic Information System

A Geographic Information System (GIS) isdefined as a computer system capable ofstoring and managing data identifiedaccording to their locations (geographicalreferenced information).

Over the past decade, companies such asESRI, Intergraph, Laser Scan and SICADwere formed, transforming GIS into a multi-billion Euro industry. In parallel, the adventof satellite navigation provided a valuabletool for surveyors, hydrographers,geodesists, geophysicists and otherenvironmental scientists in general.

GIS systems are nowadays largely used notonly in the science domain, but also incommercial and public service activities.Managers of both fixed and mobile assetsand business analysts throughout the worldroutinely use geographical informationsystems. Fixed physical assets such as streetfurniture, power and telecom infrastructureare just some of the assets whose efficientmanagement is facilitated by modern PC-based GIS. Digital map displays are routinelyused in fleet management systems forvehicles of all types, relying heavily on GIStechnology. Digital maps are fundamentalcomponents for in-car navigation systems.

The combination of geographicalinformation systems with satellite navigationis at the root of most of the newapplications already on the market.

6.2.3 Synergies with mobiletelecommunication

The above-mentioned convergence isfurther enhanced by the development ofmobile communications networks (GSM,UMTS etc.) that enable real time data tomove between system components.Location Based Services (LBS) are predictedto be amongst the most promising servicesof future wide-band mobile networks,alongside with voice and multimediaservices.

LBS services are now rapidly growing in theregions where cellular networks are alreadywidely deployed like in Europe, NorthAmerica or the Asia.With the advent ofenhanced technologies and third generationmobile networks, offering multi-mediaservices, LBS applications will be furtherencouraged.

Furthermore, by using ranging signals fromsatellites in conjunction with additional dataprovided by mobile networks, it is possibleto reduce the typical satellite navigationcomputation time, thus increasingpositioning performances (i.e. parameterssuch as availability, continuity, time to first fix,etc.). Reference stations can also transmitadditional navigation data, e.g. satelliteephemeris, synchronisation time, differentialcorrections, etc.. As part of the data is notretrieved directly from satellite signalsthrough classical algorithms, mobile handsetscan use far weaker navigation signals thanwith conventional receiver.

In summary, hybridisation of communicationand satellite navigation signals will enhanceindoor positioning capabilities, which is abenefit of paramount importance for users.

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6.2.4 EGNOS and GALILEOdifferentiators and benefits

Satellite navigation applications are currentlybased on GPS performances, and greattechnological effort is spent to integratesatellite-derived information with a numberof other techniques, in order to reachbetter positioning precision with improvedreliability.

This scenario will significantly change in theshort-term future. EGNOS, the Europeanregional augmentation of GPS, will as from2004 start to provide its services. Fouryears later, the global satellite navigationinfrastructure will double with the advent ofGALILEO.The availability of two or moreconstellations, more than doubling the totalnumber of available satellites in the sky, willenhance the quality of the services,increasing the number of potential usersand applications.

GALILEO specific characteristics will bringthemselves significant enhancements. Firstly,for urban areas or indoor applications, thedesign of the GALILEO signals will improvethe availability of service (broadcast ofdataless ranging channels, in addition to theclassical pseudo random ranging codes).Secondly, the high-end professional marketwill also benefit from GALILEO signalscharacteristics.Three carriers phasemeasurements will be essential for thedevelopment of specific “TCAR” algorithms,leading to centimetre accuracy over largeregions.

Figures 17, 18 and 19 (page 30) show acomparison in terms of mean horizontalaccuracy achieved through the GPSconstellation alone in the first case, throughGPS and EGNOS together in the secondcase and finally through the overall GPS,EGNOS and GALILEO altogether.

Simulations demonstrate that availability ofpositioning services in urban areas where“canyons” occur (satellite visibilityobstruction by high buildings andskyscrapers) is increased typically, from 50%to above 95% using GPS and GALILEO.

GALILEO, which is under civil control, isoperated in a transparent way, allowing forfull service certification.

The need for service guarantee for safety-of-life and commercial applications has beentaken into account in the design of thesystems. Legal implications of service levelcommitment are driving the GALILEOsystem implementation. Accountabilityrequirements regarding service provisionhas led to clear traceability requirements ondetailed system performance history(already implemented in EGNOS).Thisapproach significantly improves navigationsystem safety, facilitates detection andinvestigation of any malfunctioning andallows recording of service levelperformance in case of claims. In thiscontext, the integrity information functionplays an important role.

Law enforcement in the road and maritimedomains, road charging and tolling, safety-of-life navigation in all modes of transport willsoon rely on dedicated infrastructures withreliability and guarantee characteristics thatare simply not available with currentsystems.

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18

19

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Mean horizontal positioning accuracy (95%) achieved through the GPS constellation alone 1

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Mean horizontal positioning accuracy (95%) achieved through the GPS constellation augmented by EGNOS 1

18

Mean horizontal positioning accuracy (95%) achieved through the use ofGPS, EGNOS and GALILEO 2

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(1) Simulated GPS performance is based on empiricperformance parameters reported in "GPSStandard Positioning Service PerformanceStandard", Oct. 2001. Results include atmosphericand local effects.

(2) For this simulation the ranging performance ofmodernized GPS was assumed to be equal toGalileo. Results include atmospheric and localeffects.

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6.3 Regulation and policy

Regulation at a number of levels,international, EU-wide and national, willindirectly steer the use of satellite navigationsystems, hence also of GALILEO.

In general, regulation either mandatesperformance or mandates technology orauthorises certain technology.

Mandate of performance

Such regulations require provision of servicewith a set of performance criteria, and aretechnologically neutral. A typical example isthe U.S. regulation mandating localisation ofcalls to emergency services from mobilephones, known as “911 numbering”.

E-911:To comply with FCC regulationsmandating the localisation of calls toemergency services, several US carriershave adopted GNSS-based solutions.Whereas AT&T and Cingular Wirelesschose network-based solutions, Cingular,Nextel, Sprint PCS, and Verizon Wirelessopted for Assisted-GPS solutions.The lattercompanies are to provide 95% of allsubscriber handsets in service nationwidewith an A-GPS-capability by 31 December2005. Given that Nextel, Sprint PCS, andVerizon Wireless have more than 50 Millionwireless users together, E-911 regulation willconsiderably improve the market uptake ofsatellite navigation.

Mandate of technologies

In this case, regulations require a particulartechnology to be used for provision ofservices.This obviously boosts themandated technologies.The existence ofsuch regulations give GNSS (and thereforeGALILEO) a certain and well-definedmarket boost over other technologies.

An example of this is the Britishgovernment policy to equip all ambulanceswith satellite navigation units for resourcemanagement. Another example is theGerman toll system for truck journeys onmotorways, collected through satellitenavigation-based systems. It is estimated that1.2 to 1.4 million trucks will be subject tothis toll, and hence they will all be fittedwith satellite navigation receivers.

Technology authorisation

There are cases where the use of satellitenavigation is not obligatory butrecommended as a standard navigational aid.

This is the case of the Standard AndRecommended Practices (SARPs) in Annex10 of the aviation Chicago Convention.Many countries (in particular in SouthAmerica and Africa) normally transposethese SARPs into national legislationwithout major modifications, leading todirect positive impact on receiver sales.International bodies like ICAO(International Civil Aviation Organisation)and IMO (International MaritimeOrganisation) are elaborating future policiesbased on the use of satellite navigation.

In Europe, regulation is either beingimplement or under discussion in variousdomains, whether for road tolls, agriculture,fisheries, road (eSafety), customs, justice andhome affairs, environment,telecommunication (E112), etc..These newpolicies and standards will drive the demandfor accurate and reliable navigation systems.Satellite navigation infrastructures, boostedby the advent of GALILEO, will offer readilyavailable solution.

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Conclusion

Satellite navigation technology is rapidlyevolving.The downstream sector spansacross all sectors of modern economies.Expected turnovers are huge as confirmedby the current trend.The advent ofimproved systems like EGNOS and as from2008 GALILEO facilitates the developmentof new applications, hence opening newmarkets.

It is time to prepare for this newcommodity: ubiquitous provision of reliableand accurate positioning and timing serviceshas already started to transform oursocieties.

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Further information

GALILEO Joint UndertakingB-1000 BrusselsEmail: JU@galileo-pgm.org

European CommissionDirectorate General for Energy and Transport Unit E.4 Satellite Navigation System (Galileo), Intelligent TransportDM28 1/64B-1049 BrusselsBelgiumPhone: +32 2 295 6040Fax: +32 2 296 5372Email: tren-galileo@cec.eu.intWeb: http://europa.eu.int/comm/dgs/energy_transport/galileo

European Space AgencyApplications DirectorateNavigation Department8-10 rue Mario NikisF-75738 Paris CEDEX 15FrancePhone: +33 1 5369 7247Fax: +33 1 5369 7445Web: http://www.esa.int/navigation/

Part of the information contained in this document has been obtained from public domain sources. It isintended to provide actual examples and may contain omissions.This document does not engage the EuropeanCommission, the European Space Agency or the Galileo Joint Undertaking in any way.

Text completed on March 5, 2003.

Photo Credits:Thales Group,Thales Navigation, Airbus, Lufthansa (cover), Omnistar, European Space Agency,European Commission Audio Visual Library.