business modeling of offline businesses in excel

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Business Modeling of offline businesses in Excel

Practical Guide how to check whether your business makes sense

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Business modeling is about capturing the logic of the business via main KPIs and modeling this in Excel.

# transactions

Average revenue per transaction

Total revenuex

% Fee of the marketplace

Average transaction value

Total searches % conversion

x

x

Total Costs

Total margin

-

Rent

People

Cost of traffic

Ratio of visitors to searches

Average cost of 1 visit

+

x

Development

3

SaaS

E-commerce

Media site

2-sided market

User Generated Content

Mobile Applications

Retail

B2C Service

B2B Service

FMCG

SMCG

Commodity

There are 6 offline business models and 6 online models. In this presentation I will discuss the offline models

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SaaS

E-commerce Media site2-sided market

UGC

B2B Service

B2C ServiceRetail

Bear in mind that big companies can operate many business models

5

Retail

B2C Service

B2B Service

FMCG

SMCG

Commodity

I will discuss in details every model and show you how to model it in Excel.

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For every model I will discuss 4 different fields

Examples of companies

Drivers for the business model

Things that matter in the business model

Step by step business modeling

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Thanks to this presentation you will learn how model businesses in Excel and how to draw the right

conclusions

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Click to check my course


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https://www.udemy.com/offline-business-models-in-excel/


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Difference between a financial model and business

model

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There are 2 types of models that you will be building

Financial Model Business model

▪ Mainly done for budgeting and valuation ▪ Mainly done managing business, searching for opportunities

▪ Financial models look very similar ▪ Business models are specific to the company, the industry and the business model

▪ Used heavily for external purposes: talk with the Supervisor Board, banks, future investors, auditors

▪ Used heavily for internal purposes: planning, looking for opportunities, analyzing performance

▪ Generates financial statements: P&L, BS, CF

▪ Is driven by many KPIs and quantitative elements. Shows in-depth relation between KPIs

▪ Has some KPIs and quantitative elements

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Retail business model

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Introduction to retailer business model

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Retail sounds very simple. You have to get the right stock in front of the right customers at the right moment

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Yet there are some issues that simple make it difficult in execution

You have many segments of customers

Their come with different missions

Product Range is huge

Demand is very erratic / seasonal

Your supply chain is very complex

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Let’s have a look at the example of a home improvement /DIY store






▪ Regular people that do renovation infrequently

▪ Fans of renovation you are constantly doing something

▪ B2B customers

▪ Building new house

▪ Preparing the apartment to move in

▪ Renovation

▪ Small improvements

▪ Small refill purchases

▪ 60 K SKUs regular

▪ 15 K SKUs seasonal

▪ Peaks in the Spring and summer

▪ Low season in winter

▪ You have local suppliers of heavy things (i.e. bricks),

▪ National suppliers

▪ Foreign regional suppliers (i.e. European)

▪ Asian suppliers (especially China)

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Let’s have a look at another example of a kids’ ware retail chain






▪ Parents

▪ Non-parents

▪ Pre-born purchase

▪ Regular purchases

▪ Gifting

▪ Education and Development

▪ 40 K SKUs regular

▪ 10 K SKUs seasonal

▪ Short life of SKUs – Toys last in most cases up to 1 year; Fashion –6 months

▪ Peaks in the Christmas and around special gifting days

▪ Low season in Summer and after Christmas

▪ Regional brand suppliers

▪ Asian suppliers (especially China, India, Bangladesh)

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Main challenges in Retail

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Let’s have a look at the main challenges in Retail

Margin ManagementStock / Inventory

ManagementMultichannel

Strategy

Managing price across channels

Expansion to new markets

Saturation of existing markets

New product development

Managing customer experience across

channels

Format evolution (possible death)

People rotation and knowledge

management

Disruption esp. from external forces / business models

Automation

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Business model of Retailer in Excel

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We start by estimating the total sales of Stores. That depend on average transaction value (ATV) and the number of transactions

# Transactions

Average Value Transaction

Total store revenue

x

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We can estimate the number of transaction using the number of visits and conversion rate

# Transactions


Total store revenue

x

# of Visitors % Conversion

x

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Average Transaction Value depends on the average value of basic purchase as well as some suggested purchases (i.e. suggested products)

# Transactions


Total store revenue

x

Average Value Transaction of basic purchase

Average Value Transaction of additional purchase


+

x

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If we have the % Gross margin we can use it to estimate the total gross margin generated by stores

# Transactions


Total store revenue

x

Average Value Transaction of basic purchase



+

x

% Gross Margin

Gross Margin generated by the store

x

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The last piece is getting the fixed costs (esp. rent and people

# Transactions


Total store revenue Total store costs

x

Store EBITDAAverage Value Transaction of basic purchase


# of Visitors % ConversionRent

People

+

x

Others

+

% Gross Margin


x -

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We can also show what drives rent and salaries costs

# Transactions


Total store revenue Total store costs

x

Store EBITDAAverage Value Transaction of basic purchase


# of Visitors % ConversionRent

People

# of People

Average wages

+

xx

Others

+

# of sq. m

Fee per sq. m x

% Gross Margin


x -

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To see how to build the model in Excel go to my on-line course. Below link with great discount



$45$ 0



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Introduction to e-commerce

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In e-commerce you will have 3 types of players depending on their presence in off-line and their approach to both channels

E-commerce

Pure players

Off-line players with separate on-line presence

Multichannel /Omni players

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Customer behaviors has huge impact on the business model and on what the e-commerce should concentrate on

▪ Less than 40% of the buyers will buy this year

▪ Focus is on customer acquisition

▪ Loyalty program are not good investment

▪ 70% of e-commerce businesses are in this modelAcquisition mode

Description of the business model Examples

▪ E-commerce selling only 1 type of Slow Moving Consumer Goods (SMCG) bought infrequently i.e. vacuum cleaner, scuba diving, furniture

▪ E-commerce for 1-time in the life event: strollers,

▪ 40%-60% of the buyers will buy this year

▪ You have a nice mix of new and returning customers

▪ Focus is on customer acquisition as well increasing the value of the customer (increased frequency and increased purchase per visit)

Hybrid mode

▪ E-commerce that sells SMCG with relatively big frequency of purchase(1.0-2.5 times a year ) i.e. shoes (Zappos)

▪ More than 60% of the buyers will buy this year

▪ Focus is on increasing the value of the customer (increased frequency and increased purchase per visit)

▪ 10% of businesses are in this modelLoyalty mode

▪ Very strong brands with high frequency of purchase (i.e. Zara, Amazon)

▪ Marketplaces i.e. Udemy, Uber

Source: Lean Analytics: Use Data to Build a Better Startup Faster; A. Croll, B. Yoskovitz

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Just to remind you some examples of well known e-commerce businesses

Products sold On-line / Off-line situation

▪ Virtually everything esp. books, toys, fashion

Mode

▪ Pure on-line player ▪ Loyalty mode

▪ Fashion ▪ Multichannel player ▪ Loyalty mode

▪ Tickets for events ▪ Pure on-line player ▪ Acquisition mode

▪ Groceries ▪ Multichannel player ▪ Hybrid mode

▪ Razors and cosmetics for men

▪ Pure on-line player ▪ Loyalty mode

▪ Fashion ▪ Pure on-line player ▪ Hybrid mode

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VISIT

PAID DIRECT SEARCH

To understand the logic of e-commerce business model have a look at the visualization of how it works

RECO ENGINENAVIGATION

BOUNCED

NOT INTERESTED

ABANDONED

UNSATISFIED

ONE-TIME BUYER UNSOCIAL BUYERCALL TO ACTION

OPEN RATE

SEARCH

CART

ADDITIONS

CONVERSION

LOGISTICS, DELAYS

VIRALRETURNING

CAC PageRank

Bounce rate

Sharing rateAbandonment, conversion rates

Ratings, delivery issues

Signups

Mail/RSS/TwitterReturning rate

Customer Lifetime Value Transaction size

Emphasis on repurchase rate, frequency, click-through rate, lifetime value

Emphasis on maximizing cart value, minimizing acquisition costs

DELIVERY

SHARINGENROLLMENT

Source: Lean Analytics: Use Data to Build a Better Startup Faster; A. Croll, B. Yoskovitz

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There are some KPIs for e-commerce model that you have to follow…

▪ Percentage of visitors that buy products

▪ Should be calculated by sources of traffic

▪ Use funnel analysis to get to the stage / factor that kills your conversion rate

Conversion rates

Definition Why it is important?

▪ Shows you whether you have good selection of products, how good is the customer experience, pricing.

▪ Average value of purchases done by a single customer during a single transaction

▪ Should be calculated by groups of customersAverage shopping cart size / Average transaction value (ATV)

▪ Shows you how much a customer spends during one visit to your site

▪ Look also at the number of items in the basket

▪ Compare the average transaction to the average which should be if you were doing proper cross selling and sales of complementary products

▪ % of people who abandon their basket – stop the purchase although they had intent

Abandonment rate

▪ Tells you that there is some sort of friction at the very end of the process – customers despite the intent does not buy

▪ High abandonment rate can be caused by: too complicated procedure of buying, hidden costs that are shown at last moment, shipping costs, limited payment methods (you do not have some method very popular in a given country) etc.

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There are some KPIs for e-commerce model that you have to follow…


▪ Total margin generated by customer from start to end of his relation with you

▪ LTV=Average transaction*% Gross Margin* Number of transaction during the relation with the customer

▪ Analyze it by cohorts / segments

Life Time Value of the Customer (LTV)

▪ Shows you how much your customer is worth from cradle to grave

▪ Helps you take decisions on acquisition techniques

▪ % of traffic generated by your efforts to create brand, understand and connect with the customer (incl. loyalty program), SEO, affiliate programs

▪ Measure it by methods / sources of traffic

% traffic generated by non-ad methods

▪ Tells you how much traffic you are able to create regardless of advertisements

▪ Average cost of acquiring a customer

▪ Should be calculated by methods of acquisition

▪ Should be calculated by groups of customersCustomer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

▪ Tells you how much you have to spend to acquire a new customer

▪ Helps you estimate your CF burned with scaling of the business

▪ Helps you optimize acquisition methods and select the right source of traffic

▪ Number of purchases done by unique customer per year with you

▪ Compare it to the average ideal number of purchases

▪ Should be calculated by groups of customers

Number of purchases per visitors per year

▪ Helps you understand how important you are to the customer, how much do you weight in his basket of purchases of this category

▪ Helps you estimate the potential to grow with your current customers

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There are some operational KPIs for e-commerce model that you have to follow…


▪ % of goods return by customers due to not matching their expectation

▪ Extremely important for pure playersReturn rate

▪ Shows you how many customers where not pleased with the products and what is the operational burden of the customer promise not met

▪ Average additional sales generated for multichannel players by customers who ordered on-line but pick up the product at the store

▪ Extremely important for multichannel players

Average additional sales for click and collet

▪ Multichannel player to stay competitive should generate additional sales during the visit of customer picking up the goods at the store.

▪ Small value shows future problems in competing with pure players

▪ % of click and collect orders in orders generated on the web

▪ Extremely important for multichannel players % click and collect orders

▪ Shows you how willing the customers are to visit your off-line shop to collect the product and thus to experience the brand promise represented by the shop

▪ Small value shows future problems in competing with pure players

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Have a look a the typical values of KPIs for the e-commerce

▪ Most sites will have 2-3%

▪ For some very niche sales this should be much higher (>15-20%)

Conversion rates

Values which are ok Best practice values

▪ For sites with strong blog you should exclude the traffic for the blog to get the right picture

Average transaction

Abandonment rate

Return rate

Comments

▪ General sites – 10-15% (Amazon, Tickets.com, eBay)

▪ Niche sites – up to 40 %

▪ Depends very `much on industry

▪ In multichannel you should see 50% bigger ATV for on-line than for off-line

▪ Look at ways in which you can improve it: cross-selling, complementary sales, playing with shipping costs (with lower or subsidize above some threshold people ten to buy more), up-selling,

▪ In multichannel you should see up to 400% bigger ATV for on-line than for off-line

▪ < 50% ▪ Analyze it by reasons of abandonment and solve them as soon as possible

▪ 10-25%

▪ 10-25% ▪ Depends heavily on the industry – the more customizable, dependent on customer features product is the higher the return rate will be

▪ 2-5%

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You should test and find optimal solution for the following key topics in e-commerce

▪ Due to easiness with which you can establish the e-commerce business it becomes vital to be able to attract cheaply / for free loads of traffic

▪ This includes SEO, loyalty, content marketing and others

Getting a lot of cheap traffic

Description Goal

▪ More important is to find ways to get free search, entries from newsletters and social media than direct entry to the webpage

▪ Pricing is very complicated in the e-commerce due to existence of aggregators and sites comparing offers.

▪ You have to be on comparable products competitive and earn on the non-comparables and long tail items, obscuring comparables, bundles

▪ In a multichannel environment you may have different prices for the same product bought on-line an off-line

Pricing

▪ You are looking for such pricing policy that optimizes total margin generated

▪ You have to gather as much information on your customers and create automated actions build into your website as well as your other assets (i.e. email list, blog, YouTube channel)

Understanding your customer and automate marketing

▪ Increase conversion,

▪ Increase AVT

▪ Get more free traffic

▪ Increase purchasing frequency

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You should test and find optimal solution for the following key topics in e-commerce

▪ Although it is easier than in physical store to keep wide range of products you will be not able to satisfy customer needs only on the basis of your own stock

▪ You have to integrate yourself with other suppliers to get access to wide range of stock

Managing the long tail

Description Goal

▪ Depending on your concept and brand you have to decide what is your target in terms of long tail products availability and how you meet it (own stock or 3rd parties)

▪ Maximize gross margin

▪ Minimize stock-outs

▪ Your site – the way it is designed, its features may have big impact on how you convert traffic into customers therefore you have to optimize it through series of A/B testing

▪ This also includes following the trends in the way customers purchase (i.e. the mobile trend)

Continuous optimization of your site

▪ Increase conversion,

▪ Increase AVT

▪ Get more free traffic

▪ Increase purchasing frequency

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Business model of e-commerce in Excel

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Before we go to Excel let’s talk about the logic we used to build the e-commerce Excel model

▪ Conversion rate

Visits# of

transactionsRevenues

Gross Margin

Net MarginOperating

Profit

▪ ATV

▪ Cost of traffic

▪ Cost of logistics

▪ Transaction fees

▪ Fixed Costs

▪ % Gross Margin

41

B2C Services business model

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Introduction to B2C services business model

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We can be talking about 3 different models here

Services performed at specialized place no production involved

Services performed at customer place

Services performed at specialized place with some production

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Main challenges in B2C Services

45





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Let’s see what are the main challenges in the 1st type of services




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The 1st type of services (hairdressers, beauty shops, repair garages) have to face the following challenges

LocationMinimizing and

Managing Fixed CostsOptimizing Capex

Seasonality of Demand

Upsell and cross-sellStandardization of

services

Queue ManagementPrice Discrimination

Capacity management


management

Growing customer base despite

infrequent purchasesUtilization of people

48

Now let’s move on to 2nd group – services with some production




49

The 2nd type of services (restaurant chains) have to face the following challenges





services


Capacity management


management



50

The 3rd group will differ significantly from the first two




51

The 3rd type of services (plumber, electricians) have to face the following challenges





services


Capacity management


management



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Introduction to modeling B2C services in Excel

53

In the next lecture I will show you the main drivers of the B2C model and on the basis of this we will create a business model in Excel

# transactions


Total revenuex




x

x

Total Costs

Total margin

-

Rent

People

Cost of traffic



+

x

Development

54

To show you how to model B2C service we will use the example of a restaurant




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Restaurant model in Excel

56

When you want to set up a restaurant you have to not only face the monthly recurring costs but also invest a huge amount of money into the place

57

Have a look what you will spend your money on long before opening of the restaurant

Purchase of the place

FurnitureDesign

Kitchen equipemt

Domestic Appliances

Computer, cash till, POS

Uniforms for employees

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There are plenty of monthly costs that have to be paid every month

Food and drinksUtilities (water,

electricity, gas, waste)

Stock

Rental of the place

Services i.e. book-keeping

Cleaning costs

Personel

59

Remember that apart from current costs you usually froze a lot of cash in the stock

60

Let’s have a look at the simple model

▪ Number of meals per day

▪ Number of daysRestaurant

# of transactions

Revenues

Gross Margin

Net MarginOperating

Profit

▪ ATV - average

▪ Cost of marketing

▪ Franchising Fee

▪ Other Variable costs

▪ Fixed Costs

▪ % Gross Margin

▪ % Food ratio

61

In the part about the using store checks for location analysis we were

Passing by

Engaged / stopping

Leaving

Taking away

In store

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Before we go to Excel let’s talk about the logic we used to build the e-commerce Excel model

▪ Conversion rate to consumption at the restaurant

▪ Conversion rate into takeaways

Visits# of

transactionsRevenues

Gross Margin

Net MarginOperating

Profit

▪ ATV for both subgroups

▪ Cost of marketing

▪ Franchising Fee

▪ Other Variable costs

▪ Fixed Costs

▪ % Gross Margin

▪ % Food ratio

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KPIs for restaurants

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There are some important KPIs you should pay attention to

Daily Capacity

% utilization

% of Take-Aways

Average Transaction Value (ATV)

% of Ordered via on-demand marketplaces

# of daily customers

% of Loyal Customers

% Conversion rate

% Gross Margin

Inventory in days of sales

Sales Density Margin Density

66

B2B Services business model

67

Introduction to B2B services business model

68

Due to margins and integration with you we can divide the B2B services into 3 groups

Professional service Other external servicesOutsourcing of your process

▪ Lawyer

▪ Auditors

▪ Consultants

▪ Marketers

▪ Production Process

▪ Maintenance Process

▪ Book keeping and reporting

▪ Shared Service Canters run by external companies

▪ Logistics

▪ IT

▪ Measuring

69

Main challenges in B2B Services

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Let’s have a look at the main challenges in B2B services

Utilization of peoplePeople rotation and

knowledge management

Upsell and cross-sell


Optimizing Capex and Opex

Automation

Standardization of services

Price Discrimination

Capacity management

Productization of services

Growing new businesses using customer base

Minimizing and Managing Fixed Costs

71

Introduction to service companies

72

Service companies in general are all about converting your workers time into money

Man-hours

73

There are some general rules that you should follow

Measure man-hours

Measure tasks

Stay productive and efficient

Make sure supply matches demand

Forecast and create demand

Manage supply ahead of time

Make sure that margins are OK

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Introduction to modeling B2B services in Excel

75

To show you the business modelling in Excel I will use the consulting business model as an example

Professional service Other external servicesOutsourcing of your process

76

The typical model of a service model can be presented using this logic

▪ % Utilization# hours available

# of billable hours

Revenues

Gross Margin

Operational Profit

Net Profit

▪ Hourly fee

▪ HQ costs▪ Bonuses

▪ Interest

▪ % Gross Margin

▪ Wages

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FMCG Business Model

79

Introduction to FMCG Business Model

80


Branded FMCG with strong brand awareness

Private labels

Private label

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Main challenges in FMCG

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For branded FMCG product I propose to have a look at the following aspects

Brand AwarenessReach (Weighted and numeric distribution)

Your strategy across many channels

Managing price across channels

Leveraging the brandSpreading beyond

original target group

Product lifecycleManaging customer experience across

channels

Efficiency of marketing activities

Lifecycle of your target groups

Seasonality

83

Introduction to modeling FMCG in Excel

84

In the modeling phase I will concentrate on branded FMCG products. The model will be created for cosmetics

Branded FMCG with strong brand awareness

Private labels

Private label

85

In the next lecture I will show you the main drivers of the FMCG model and on the basis of this we will create a business model in Excel

# transactions


Total revenuex




x

x

Total Costs

Total margin

-

Rent

People

Cost of traffic



+

x

Development

86

Drivers of FMCG Model

87

The FMCG business model is driven by some basic KPIs

# sold

Unit production cost

Gross Margin Head office

Operational profitFixed Cost / Quantity produced

Unit variable cost

+

Cost of sales & marketing

Net Margin

--

Average price

Unit Gross Margin

-

x

Market share Market size

88




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89

FMCG business model –modeling in Excel

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Let’s go through basic assumptions of the model

FMCG product MarketingSales Channels

▪ Cosmetics – 1 product

▪ 1 production site

▪ Traditional small stores

▪ Retail chain

▪ TV ads

▪ Market research

▪ Social Media

▪ Mailing

▪ Loyalty program

▪ Outdoor campaigns

91

Commodity Business Model

92

Introduction to Commodity Business Model

93

The commodity is one of the most difficult business. You have a non-differentiated product and the price pressure is destroying the margins

94

The commodities are characterized by some important things

Very low margins

Usually high Capex

Cyclical demand connected with GDP growth

Natural tendency to consolidate

Mature industries

Low growth

Transparency

Educated buyers esp. in B2B

95

Main challenges in Commodity Business Model

96

Let’s have a look at the main challenges in Commodities

Operational Excellence

Market Structure –oligopoly or monopoly

Cyclicity of demand

Capacity Management

Catchment analyses (supplier, customer)

Creating barriers of entry

Product differentiation

Reaching strong buyer position

Turning the product into service

Investments enabling the demand for your

product

Changing economics of facilities - lower

Capex

Vertical integration esp. downstream

97

Drivers of Commodity Model

98

The commodity business model is driven by some basic KPIs

# sold

Unit production cost

Gross Margin Head office

Operational profitFixed Cost / Quantity produced

Unit variable cost

+

Cost of sales & marketing

Net Margin

--

Average price

Unit Gross Margin

-

x

Customer catchment area

SupplierCatchmentArea

99




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https://www.udemy.com/financial-modeling-for-business-analysts-and-consultants/?couponCode=SLIDESHARE








116

Check my presentation on starting and running consulting company

Start and run consulting companyA practical guide

presentation

http://www.slideshare.net/AsenGyczew/how-to-start-and-run-consulting-fimr-fast-and-efficiently

http://www.slideshare.net/AsenGyczew/how-to-start-and-run-consulting-fimr-fast-and-efficiently

117

There is an interesting summary of ways to test cheaply businesses

MVP – how to test your business idea without building the

productA practical guide

presentation

https://www.slideshare.net/AsenGyczew/mvp-how-to-test-your-business-idea-without-building-the-product

https://www.slideshare.net/AsenGyczew/mvp-how-to-test-your-business-idea-without-building-the-product