business optimism index qatar – q4 2008 usiness optimism index qatar q4 2008 28 th sept, 2008...

Business Optimism Index Qatar – Q4 2008

Business Optimism Index Qatar Q4 usiness Optimism Index Qatar Q4 200820082828thth Sept, 2008 Sept, 2008

Presented by Presented by Dun & BradstreetDun & BradstreetQatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji)Al Khalij Commercial Bank (al khaliji)


Recognized world over as a measure of the pulse of the business community

Expectation survey of 500 business owners and senior executives between Aug. 16th and Sep. 5th for the quarter starting Oct. 2008

Respondents questioned on their expectations for relevant business parameters

Other parameters include current business conditions vis-à-vis investment plans, sources of finance, primary concerns etc.

Analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning the business community

Provides insights into the short-term outlook of the business community on investment, sales, profit growth etc

Business Optimism Index


75

51

6659

66

78

61

7482

60 6352

0

20

40

60

80

100

Volume ofSales

Net Profits Selling Prices Number ofEmployees

Level ofStock

New Orders

IndexIndex

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008

Overall Business Sentiments High

Buoyancy in Sales volume and profits continues

Outlook on New orders and additional Employees subdued

Selling prices expected to plateau



8683 85 88

3 1 2 811

1613

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

Agriculture,manufacturing,

water &electricity

Building,construction&real estate

Finance,Insurance &

BusinessServices

Trade, transportand hotels

Increase Decrease No Change

Positive outlook continues

%

Volume of Sales

Q4 sales expected to rise further

Finance sector continues on high growth path

Manufacturing units’ profits hit by high input costs

74 7384 84

110 2 7

1527

14 9

0

20

40

60

80

100


water &electricity

Building,construction &

real estate

Finance,Insurance &

BusinessServices

Trade, transportand hotels

Increase Decrease No ChangeNet Profits

%


… With a blip

6675 78

5244

65 62 65

0

20

40

60

80

100


water & electricity


real estate

Finance,insurance &

businessservices

Trade, transport& hotels

Index

Q3 2008 Q4 2008Number of Employees

8577

71 71

5262

7165

0

20

40

60

80

100


water & electricity


real estate

Finance,insurance &

businessservices

Trade, transport &hotels

Index

Q3 2008 Q4 2008New orders

Hiring plans tempered; 6 point drop in the index

36% expect no change; 2% expect a decrease

Finance and Construction sectors

continue to be employment generators

Subdued outlook for new orders; 12 point drop in index

Units expecting an increase drop from 81% to 69%

Manufacturing units see a 32 point fall in the index


71 70

526260 64

45

63

0 2 3105 0

6 8

29 27

45

2935 36

49

28

71 70

526260 64

45

0 2 3105 0

6 8

29 27

45

2935 36

49

28

0

20

40

60

80

100

Agriculture, manufacturing,water & electricity

Building , construction & realestate

Finance, Insurance &business Services

Trade, transport and hotels

%%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 Increase Q4 Increase Q3 Decrease Q4 Decrease Q3 No Change Q4 No Change

Dampened Selling Price outlook

Early signs of easing inflationary pressure; 6 point drop in the index

40% do not foresee any rise over the last quarter

At least a couple of quarters before we see any impact on inflation levels


100 10090 90 95

71686468

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

Net Profits Number of Employees Level of Selling prices Cost of Extraction Overall

IndexIndex

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q3 2008 Q4 2008

Sentiments subdued; significant drop in all the indices

Drop in global oil prices drags selling price index

Profits outlook still high

Oil and Gas sector



Non Hydrocarbon

14

26

17

13

34

36

22

21

12

11

13

9

39

26

48

58

0 20 40 60 80 100

Agriculture, manufacturing, water & electricity

Building, construction &real estate

Finance, insurance & business services

Trade,transport & hotels

%

Addition to Technology Machinery/InfrastructureWorkforce Business Expansion

46%14%

21%

11%7%

Addition to technology Machinery/infrastructure Workforce

Exploration Research & Development

Oil & gas

Investment Plans

Services sector on expansion mode

Investment in new technology moves up while work force expansion moves down the priority list

More investment in machinery and infrastructure in the Oil and Gas sector


Rising input costs continue to be primary concern for businesses

Import intensive sectors worst hit

Finance sector worried about skilled labour availability

57%29%

11%4%

Input prices Availability of skilled labor Property prices/rent Others

Oil & gas

52

41

35

55

30

35

30

24

17

24

26

19

8

2

1

0 20 40 60 80 100


water & electricity


real estate

Finance, insurance&

business services

Trade, transport& hotels

%

Input prices Availability of skilled lab Property prices/rent Others

Non Hydrocarbon

Business Concerns


Easing inflationary pressure

Sales and profits levels to increase further

Finance and construction sector on high growth path

More capital investment on its way

Profitability of industry to go down

Outlook: a quarter of demand consolidation


THANK YOU

business optimism index qatar – q4 2008 usiness optimism index qatar q4 2008 28 th sept, 2008...

Documents