business south africa presentation to the parliamentary portfolio committee on labour 20 may 2002

88
BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR 20 MAY 2002 CAPE TOWN

Upload: noelle

Post on 11-Jan-2016

34 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR 20 MAY 2002 CAPE TOWN. Proposed agenda for Portfolio Committee on Labour Cas Coovadia :Introductory remarks Ben van der Ross :Overview of BSA - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE

PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR

20 MAY 2002

CAPE TOWN

Page 2: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Proposed agenda for Portfolio Committee on Labour

Cas Coovadia: Introductory remarks

Ben van der Ross: Overview of BSA

Progress being made with the unity processes with the BBC

Cas Coovadia: Black economic empowerment

Roger Baxter: Breaking through the economic growth barrier in South Africa

Page 3: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Primary Functions of Business Organisations

1. Umbrella Body/ies

Represent the interests of business as a wholePromote / protect the macro interests of business in respect of national matters such as legislation, taxation, labour issues, etc.Represents business internationally.

2. Chamber Movement

Concentrates on local level service delivery and direct support to its members (corporates, to a large extent - smaller business).

Page 4: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Business South Africa(umbrella body)

Current Structure of Organised Business in South Africa

AHI SACOB

Agri SA Banking Council

etc. See slide 3 for full list

Multi-sectoral / Chamber Organisations

Sectoral Organisations

SAF Unique - largest60 companies only

Page 5: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Uni-sectoral Members of Business South Africa •Agri SA

•Banking Council

•Building Industries Federation of SA (BIFSA)

•Chamber of Mines of South Africa

•Chemical and Allied Industries’ Association (CAIA)

•Insurance Industries Employer Association (IIEA)

•Life Offices Association (LOA)

•National Association of Automobile Maufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA)

•Printing Industries Federation of South Africa (PIFSA)

•Retailers’ Association

•Road Freight Employers Association (RFEA)

•South African Federation of Civil Engineering Contractors (SAFCEC)

•South African Insurance Association (SAIA)

•South African Petroleum Industry Association (SAPIA)

•Steel and Engineering Industries Federaiton of South Africa (SEIFSA)

•Sugar Maufacturing and Refining Employers’ Association (SMREA)

Page 6: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Black Business Council

(umbrella body)

NAFCOC FABCOS

ABASA ABSIPSee slide 5 for full list

Multi-sectoral / Chamber Organisations

Various professional and business organisations and associations

Page 7: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Black Business Council Members

•Association for the Advancement of Black Accountants of Southern Africa (ABASA)

•Association of Black Securities and Invesment Professionals (ABSIP)

•African Minerals and Energy Forum (AMEF)

•Black Information Technology Forum (BITF)

•Black Lawyers Association (BLA)

•Black Management Forum (BMF)

•Congress of Business and Economics (CBE)

•National Black Business Caucus (NBBC)

•South African Black Technical and Allied Careers Organisation (SABTACO)

•South African Institute of Black Property Practitioners (SAIBPP)

•South African Communications Forum (SACF)

•Black Business Executive Circle (BBEC)

Page 8: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

The Business Unity Process

1. At overall level

Merger of BBC / BSA

Membership will accommodate at least all of the current members of BBC and BSA

Page 9: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

The Business Unity Process

2. At chamber level

AHI

FABCOS

NAFCOC

SACOB

These organisations will develop an effective working arrangement to co-ordinate their operations and agree how they will relate to the merged BBC / BSA.

Page 10: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Growth and Development Summit

* Driven by the Department of Labour

* NEDLAC is implementing agency

* 4 agreed themes

• More Jobs, Better Jobs - Decent Work for All;

• Addressing the Investment Challenge;

• Advancing Equity, Developing Skills and Creating Economic Opportunities; and

• Local Action for Implementation and Development.

Page 11: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Format of SummitNot yet final but expect:

- keynote address by President;

- addresss by each constituency;

- signature of pre-negotiated agreements

The Agreements• Currently being negotiated by Task Teams

• Business representation on each Task Team - 3 from BBC / NAFCOC and 3 from BSA

• Focus is on identifying a limited number of specific, substantial, but “do-able” objectives.

• Too early to predict exact outcomes

Page 12: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

However

1. Issues on which consensus is already emerging are:

• an expanded public works (or Public Employment) programme; and

• focus on the learnerships initiative.

2. Many other important and relevant issues are being identified.

3. Will have to agree processes to take these forward.

Page 13: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

BLACK ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT

Page 14: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Broad Principles

• Historical legacy

• Socio-political imperative

• Recognition of economic imperative

• Sound business principles – sustainability

• Government role in addressing non-commercial risk

Page 15: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

• Specific areas

• Target group

• HDSA / Black

• Consistency

• Funding

• Capacity of financial sector

• Effective utilisation of government funds

Page 16: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

• Funding – continued

• Donor and international funds

• Structure into PPP?

• Utilisation of mechanisms in Strategy Doc?

• Prioritisation

• Scorecard

• Support balanced scorecard

Page 17: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

• BEE Advisory Council

• Business representation

• BBC / BSA Interim Leadership

• Access to financial services

• Dealt with in Financial Sector Charter

• Targeted investments

• Dealt with in Financial Sector Charter

Page 18: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

• Employment Equity / Skills Development

• Mining and Petroleum Industry Charters

• Learnerships

• Intervention in school and university curricula

• SETA’s

Page 19: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

• Ownership

• Direct / Indirect

• Broad-based

• Capacity of trustees / fund managers

• Government role

Page 20: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

• Control

• Fulcrum of power

• Indirect ownership representation

• Executive management

Page 21: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

CONCLUSION

• Business – partners with government

• Need for sustainability

• Sound business practice

• Funding

• Positive energy

Page 22: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

SOUTH AFRICA AT A CRITICAL ECONOMIC THRESHOLD: KEY ISSUES TO

BREAKING THROUGH THE ECONOMIC GROWTH BARRIER?

Page 23: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

PLACING SOUTH AFRICA SQUARELY ON THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT RADAR SCREEN

Brazil

China

ArgentinaHong Kong

Ireland

Mexico

Korea

Chile

Poland

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

South Africa?

Page 24: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

South Africa, towards a shared vision

South Africa is a remarkable country. Arising from the ashes of its dark apartheid past, the country experienced a smooth and peaceful transition to democracy. A solid foundation for democracy and economic prosperity has been laid. The focus is now shifting towards realising the economic miracle.

A vision of a prosperous fast growing South Africa which provides sustainable employment opportunities and rising living standards to all its people is a shared vision that all South Africans can aspire to.

Page 25: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Significant achievements in the new democracy

Significant progress has been made in ensuring that South Africa’s young democracy is built on solid foundation.

Institutions that support democracy have been put in place.

Fiscal and monetary policy have achieved a much more stable macroeconomic framework.

Trade & exchange control liberalisation have opened up South Africa’s economy to global forces including access to new markets.

South Africa, at the corporate, government and civil socdiety levels, is playing a much more significant role in global debates (e.g. in multilateral discussions)

There is no doubt that these achievements have contributed to a more sustainable and higher economic growth platform for South Africa.

Page 26: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

South Africa has a number of advantages and strengths

South Africa has a number of advantages, some absolute, which form part of the attractions of the country for domestic and foreign investment:

Abundant natural resources and natural attractions.

World class infrastructure.

A well-developed and efficient capital market.

A world class banking and financial services sector.

World class companies in a number of sectors.

The world’s cheapest industrial electricity price with reliable supply.

Abundant supply of labour.

A government which is willing to globalise the economy.

Cheap real estate costs.

Page 27: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

WEF survey: the level of sophistication of financial markets is higher than international

norms (1=strongly disagree; 7=strongly agree)

0

12

34

56

7

Page 28: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Opportunities are opening up

•· As market barriers are reduced so new market opportunities for South African exporters are being realised (AGOA, EU-SA FTA, US-SACU FTA, etc.)

•· Access to global capital and foreign direct investment in the rapidly globalising world economy is resulting in new opportunities for investment, technology transfer and improved economic performance in South Africa.

•· NEPAD and increased regional integration will help stabilise the region and reposition Africa for the 21st century.

Page 29: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

SETTING THE SCENE: WHERE IS SOUTH AFRICA AT?

Page 30: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

SOUTH AFRICA’S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:

•Yes good progress has been made in stabilising the macro- economy, reducing inflation, reducing the budget deficit, stabilising the fiscal situation, relaxing exchange controls, liberalising international trade, introducing a new skills development paradigm and stabilising the labour market.

•But, South Africa’s investment and growth rates remain far too low to tackle high unemployment and to raise living standards.

Page 31: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

SOUTH AFRICA STANDS AT A CRITICAL ECONOMIC THRESHOLD

The economic growth trajectory of the economy needs to be raised to a significantly higher level through a massive expansion in the

growth of economic opportunity and investment.

Failure to raise the growth trajectory from the current 2.5% per annum rate, given South Africa's 7.6 million unemployed people,

may undermine the country’s long-term future.

Organised business rejects the latter scenario as unacceptable. But we must understand the dangers of not raising the economic growth

trajectory.

Page 32: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Non-agricultural employment, 1993 and 2001 (1995=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Generalgovernment

Parastatals Mining Manufacturing Other privatesector

1995

=10

0 1993

2001

Page 33: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Comparison of the share of income for poor households and rich households

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Brazil South Africa Malaysia Turkey Ireland Australia Poland Korea

Share ofincome ofpoorest20%Share ofincome ofrichest10%Gini index

Page 34: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

South Africa, savings(GDS) and investment (GFCF) to GDP ratios and GDP growth rates for

the decades 1950 to present

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990-94 1995-2001

as a

% o

f G

DP

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: SARB

% G

DP

gro

pw

th

rate

GDS/GDP GFCF/GDP Real GDP grow th

Page 35: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

South Africa, Savings and Investment rates as a % of GDP

10

15

20

25

30

35

GD

S &

GF

CF

% o

f G

DP

GFCF/GDP

GDS/GDP

Page 36: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

SOUTH AFRICA’S ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO

COMPETITORS:

•Low savings and investment rates.

•Little foreign direct investment.

•Relatively low economic growth rates.

•High unemployment.

Page 37: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Savings & investment rates as a % of GDP for the decade of the 1990's

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

45

% o

f GD

P

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

% g

row

th ra

te

GDS/GDP% GFCF/GDP% GDP growth rate

Page 38: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

FDI into key emerging & developed economies, 1998-2000

0

10000

20000

30000

US$ mns

1998 1999 2000

Page 39: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Unemployment as a % of labour force average 1990-99 and 2000 (source:WB)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

SouthAfrica

Malaysia SouthKorea

Turkey Brazil NewZealand

Australia Ireland Poland

%

1991-1999 2000

Page 40: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Private Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, 2001

Europe13%

Latin America

34%

Asia/Pacific46%

Africa/Middle East7%

Page 41: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Real GDP per capita in 1985 US$ terms, 1993 and 1999

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

US

$ p

er

capita

(consta

nt 1985 $

)

1993

1999

Page 42: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

SOUTH AFRICA NEEDS TO RAISE THE ECONOMIC GROWTH TRAJECTORY

TO A HIGHER LEVEL THROUGH:

•A massive expansion in the growth of economic opportunity and investment.

•A massive expansion in the skills base of the broad population to ensure all people participate in the growth of opportunity.

Page 43: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

In general, for an economy at South Africa’s stage of development the key driver of economic

growth will be supply-side investment.

•That fuels an export boom.

•Raises employment and disposable incomes.

•That allows steady growth in the size of the domestic market.

•That encourages foreign participation in our economy (FDI and portfolio investment).

Page 44: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

IS SOUTH AFRICAN BUSINESS ON AN INVESTMENT STRIKE?

Page 45: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Total fixed capital stock in South Africa, government vs private sector

General government

46%Private business

enterprises54%

Page 46: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Total net capital formation for South Africa by organisation 1991 to 2001, nominal terms

32888

-37779

206756

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Generalgovernment

Public corporations Private businessenterprises

R' m

illio

ns

Page 47: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Total net capital formation for South Africa by organisation, nominal terms

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

R' m

illio

ns

General government Public corporations Private business enterprises

Page 48: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

What factors drive investment?•The availability of investment projects (which are currently closed in the telecom, energy, rail, port arenas!)

•The size of the domestic market and access to other markets.

•The availability of the factors of production (skills, capital) at world competitive prices.

•Ultimately investment decisions are driven by risk and cost adjusted rates of return criteria.

•If the costs and risks of investing in South Africa are too high – investment will not take place

Page 49: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

INVESTMENT DECISIONS ARE DRIVEN BY THE RISK AND COST ADJUSTED RATE OF RETURN

RELATIONSHIP

=

COSTS:•Cost of capital

•Cost of labour

•Cost of technology

•Cost of intermediate products

•Costs of logistics

RISKS:•business & financial risks

•Property rights

•Legislative

•Political

•Security

•Labour market

•Marketing

The investment hurdle rate = rate of return required by an investor after covering the risks and costs of a project over the long-term.

RISK & COST ADJUSTED RETURNS

REVENUE

•Economic growth

•Market contestation

Page 50: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Suppliers

Employees

Lenders

Government

Reinvestment

INVESTORWhat is in it for the INVESTOR?

THE CASH RECEIPT QUEUE, WHAT ISIN IT FOR THE INVESTOR?

REVENUE FROM SALES

Minus

THE QUEUE

Page 51: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

THE INVESTOR STANDS TO BENEFIT LAST IN THE QUEUE

The key point being made here is that there is a pipeline of costs (taxes, interest payment on debt, currency

depreciation, labour costs, logistical costs, etc.,) which are taken from a projects return before the investor (shareholder) see any return on money’s invested.

Any issue that affects the distribution of the benefits or costs from an investment will raise the risk premium, raise the cost of capital, raise investment hurdle rates

and lower investment

Page 52: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

USACFROI: 10.5%CoC: 5.4%

South AfricaCFROI: 8.7%CoC: 8.6%

JapanCFROI: 1.4%CoC: 5.2%

5.1% pointpositivespread

0.1% pointneutralspread -3.8% point

negativespread

Rate ofreturn %

Cost of capital

EVALUATING INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS

Comments:

Excellent risk & costadjusted rate of returnwhich will encourageexpansion and further

investment

Neutral risk & costadjusted rate of return

which results in afocus on cost cutting

and minimalinvestment

Negative risk & costadjusted rate of return

which will result insevere restructuringand disinvestment

Page 53: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

HOW DOES SOUTH AFRICA PERFORM ON THE COST/RISK SIDE OF THE INVESTMENT

EQUATION?

•The real cost of capital is too high (interest rates, tax rates, currency volatility).

•The cost of labour per unit of output is high (apartheid education, poor skills profile, poor management practices, etc.).

•The costs of logistics are too high (the lack of competition in service provision results in high prices which disadvantage exporters).

Page 54: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Effective company tax rates, 2001 (for an average manufacturing company)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ireland S-Korea Poland Malaysia S-Africa

%

Page 55: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

WEF: Survey of perceptions about incentives for investment (1=poor incentives, 10=max

incentives)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ireland Malaysia Brazil Turkey SouthKorea

Poland SouthAfrica

Page 56: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Real cost and risk adjusted rates of return for 2000

02468

1012

Ireland Malaysia N-Zealand Australia S-Africa

% RACARR

Return on investment Cost of capital RACARR

Page 57: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

The relative cost of labour is too high.

•Yes basic wage rates per hour in manufacturing are mid-range versus the comparators and the labour market is more stable (i.e. not confrontational).

•But the reality is that the relative cost of labour per unit of output produced is just too low.

•Such productivity levels are as a result of apartheid education, past introverted industrial policy which undermined skills development, poor management practices, some rigidity built into labour laws and inappropriate use of technology.

•Healthcare issues and declining human development index are concerns.

Page 58: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Manufacturing value added per $ of labour purchased, 1999 vs 1985

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ireland Korea Turkey Brazil Malaysia USA Poland SouthAfrica

NewZealand

US

$

1985

1999

Page 59: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Changes in manufacturing value added per $ of labour purchased versus changes in

employment 1999 vs 1985

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ireland Korea NewZealand

Turkey South Africa Brazil Poland

% c

hang

e

value added per $ of labourpurchased

employment

Page 60: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Ratio of labour output to labour cost in manufacturing, 1999 data, source: World Bank

database

0

1

2

3

4

5

Poland Brazil Turkey Korea Malaysia SouthAfrica

Ratio

Page 61: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

WEF survey: Pay is directly linked to productivity? (1=little link; 7=maximum

link)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Page 62: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Changes in remuneration by skill class real terms, 1970-1999

260

10

-10

-20 30 80 130 180 230 280

Unskilled/semi-skilled

Skilled

Highly skilled

Change in remuneration %

Page 63: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Unemployment by skill class, 1970 versus 1999

6

1

0

55

28

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Unskilled/semi-skilled

Skilled

Highly skilled

Unemployment rate%

1970

1999

Page 64: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

CAN THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY CREATE EMPLOYMENT?

Page 65: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Formal sector employment trends, change in employment by education 1995 vs 1970

-3000000 -2000000 -1000000 0 1000000 2000000

No education

Lower than standard 5

Standard 6 to 9

Matric

Tertiary

employment gain/loss (numbers)

Page 66: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Labour force absorption rate as % of total formal sector employment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Page 67: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Qualification profile of the SA population 2001

None7%

Grade 8-1257%

NTC 1-31%

Diplomas5%

Degrees/higher3%

Other/unspecified1%

Grade 0-726%

Page 68: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

WEF: The school system excels in math and basic science education (1=strongly disagree;

7=strongly agree)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Page 69: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Tertiary students in science, maths and engineering as % of total tertiary students

05

101520

2530

3540

Korea Australia Ireland Brazil Turkey NewZealand

SouthAfrica

Page 70: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Trends in human development (UNDP Human Development Index)

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

HD

I

Australia

Ireland

New Zealand

Korea

Poland

Malaysia

Brazil

Turkey

South Africa

Page 71: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Health indicators, malaria and TB cases per 100 000 population and HIV/AIDs prevelnce rates for ages 15-49 (UNDP) 2001

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

NewZealand

Australia Korea Poland Turkey Ireland Malaysia Brazil SouthAfrica

cases p

er

100 0

00 p

op

.

0

5

10

15

20

% H

IV/A

IDs r

ate

s

Malaria cases per 100 000 pop TB cases per 100 000 pop. HIV/AIDs prev rates (% age 15-49)

Page 72: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Professional emigration from South Africa, STATSSA vs destination country data

(Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA and UK)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Nu

mb

ers

of e

mig

ran

ts

STATSSA Destination country data

Page 73: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Immigration, emigration and net gain (loss) for South Africa by occupation, 2000

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500P

rofe

ssio

na

l,se

mi-

pro

f. &

tech

nic

al

Un

spe

cifie

do

ccu

pa

tion

s

Cle

rica

l an

dsa

les

Ma

na

ge

ria

l,e

xecu

tive

&a

dm

in

Art

isa

ns,

ap

pre

ntic

e &

rela

ted

Se

rvic

e

Tra

nsp

ort

,d

eliv

ery

&co

mm

un

ica

tion

s

Nu

mb

er Immigrants

Emigrants

Net loss

Page 74: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Technology diffusion, old technologies, telephones per 1000 people and electricity

consumption per capita

0200

400600

8001000

1200

ph

on

es p

er 1

000

peo

ple

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Kw

h/c

apit

a

Telephones per 1000 residents Electricty use per capita (kWh)

Page 75: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Technology diffusion, new technologies, PCs and Internet users per 1000 people

050

100150200250300350400450500

per

1000 p

eo

ple

PCs per 1000 people Internet users per 1000 people

Page 76: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

WEF survey: "The overall infrastructure is among the best in the world"

7.1

4.04.4

5.6 5.8

7.6 7.9 8.1

0

1

23

4

5

67

8

9

SouthAfrica

Poland Brazil Ireland Turkey NewZealand

Malaysia Australia

1 = strong disagreement 10 = strong agreement

sc

ore

Page 77: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Estimated capital spending as a % of LT capital requirements

01020304050607080

Page 78: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Typical waterfront charges

0200400600800

1000120014001600

Durban Melborne Brisbane Auckland Singapore

R' p

er

TE

U

Terminal

Ancillary

Port Authority

Page 79: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

WEF survey: "Personal security and private property are properly protected"

1.8

3.84.6

6.36.8 7.0 7.2

8.0 8.4

0123456789

1=strong disagreement 10=strong agreement

Sc

ore

Page 80: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

PRESIDENT MBEKI IN HIS 2001 STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS TO PARLIAMENT MADE THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:

“..the reality remains that our rate of growth is still too low as are the aggregate savings and investment rates. Similarly, the levels of poverty, unemployment and underdevelopment in some parts of our country are too high….

The objectives we seek to achieve are moving the economy onto a high-growth path, increasing its competitiveness and efficiency, raising employment levels and reducing poverty and persistent inequalities.

To improve our competitiveness, we must lower input costs throughout the economy.

Accordingly, we have decided to go over to a managed liberalisation of the energy, transport and telecommunications sectors.”

Cape Town, 9 February 2001.

Page 81: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Table : National Enterprise Survey: Obstacles to investment

rated as “severe” or “insurmountable”

Foreign owned % Locally owned %

Crime & related socialproblems

42 Crime & related socialproblems

56

High level of interest rates 40 High level of interest rates 51Labour regulations 35 Labour regulations 41Poor sales outlook 31 Fluctuations in the interest

rate40

The level of the exchange rate 30 High company taxes 39Exchange rate instability 30 Uncertainty of labour

regulations39

Source: National Enterprise Survey by Dr S. Gelb

Page 82: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Table: National Enterprise Survey: Government

understanding of business

Ownership How well dogovernmentofficialsunderstand theproblems facedby business?

Is government policycoherent andpredictable?

To what extent does thegovernment take intoaccount concerns ofbusiness whenintroducing policy?

Foreign Badly (38%) Unpredictable (46%) Hardly ever (49%)

Local Badly (42%) Unpredictable (39%) Hardly ever (49%)

Source: National Enterprise Survey by Dr S. Gelb

Page 83: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Table: Reliability and cost of infrastructure

Type of infrastructure Firmownership

Obstacle (% ofrespondents)

Benefit (% ofrespondents)

Foreign 55 8Reliability and speed of postal servicesLocal 48 10Foreign 39 6Cost of postal servicesLocal 45 5Foreign 24 31Reliability of power suppliesLocal 24 26Foreign 21 18Cost of power suppliesLocal 27 8Foreign 58 6Cost of local/national telephone callsLocal 64 5Foreign 53 5Cost of international telephone callsLocal 44 4Foreign 45 15Reliability of telephone systemLocal 44 14

Source: National Enterprise Survey, Dr. S Gelb.

Page 84: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Rankings (1=free, 5=repressed), 2001

0 1 2 3 4 5

Australia

Botswana

Namibia

South Africa

Mauritius

Mozambique

Swaziland

Zambia

Lesotho

Tanzania

Malawi

Zimbabwe

Score

Page 85: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

BUSINESS UNDERSTANDS THE PRIORITIES:•Transformation and greater inclusion in the economy.

•Bridging programs for school leavers (standard grade matric to higher grade matric - especially maths and science).

•The need for a quantum leap in skills development (special focus on learnerships).

•The need to have flexible immigration laws to fill the skills gap in the interim.

•The vital need to retain skills.

•Short-term measures for dealing with the structural unemployment problems (such as extended public works programmes).

•Helping to reduce bottlenecks to public sector investment programmes (including the use of public-private partnerships - clinics, prisons, road infrastructure, etc.).

Page 86: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

BUSINESS UNDERSTANDS THE PRIORITIES:•Engaging with government to deal with efficiency and cost competitiveness of key economic infrastructure (ports, railways, municipalities, etc.).

•Investigating how to raise domestic savings (which will allow lower interest rates and provide greater capital for investment).

•Engaging with government on how to lower the cost of capital (which will then increase investment, economic growth and employment).

•Lowering the barriers to entry to business - especially small business. (Business is proposing the investigation of a Regulatory Impact Assessment Strategy to gauge the impact of new legislation and regulation for all parties to negotiation/consultation processes).

•Lowering the negative impact of crime on investment and the economy (Business Against Crime Initiative).

•Reducing marketing risks - especially for SA exports to key foreign markets.

•Improving the image of SA as an investment destination.

Page 87: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED

•No single constituency can solve the issues.

•A South Africa Incorporated approach is vital.

•Lets work together to tackle the issues to ensure a vision of a prosperous, inclusive future is achieved.

Page 88: BUSINESS SOUTH AFRICA PRESENTATION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON LABOUR  20 MAY 2002

CONCLUDING THOUGHT“Economic growth is not a mysterious force that strikes unpredictably or

whose absence is inexplicable.

On the contrary, economic growth is the fruit of two forces: the ability of people to recognise opportunities, on the one hand, and the creation by government of a legal, fiscal, and regulatory framework in which it is

worthwhile for people to exploit those opportunities.

And since there is no shortage of energetic and entrepreneurial people wherever human beings are to be found, one of the most important factors

explaining differences in economic performance will be public policy”

“The key is simply to put sensible policies in place, and then let the intelligence, industriousness, and ingenuity of the people do the rest.”

Fred McMahon