business statistics: a decision-making approach, …chap 9-3 what is a hypothesis? we perform of...
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Business Statistics
Department of Quantitative Methods & Information Systems
Dr. Mohammad Zainal QMIS 220
Chapter 9
Introduction to
Hypothesis Testing
Chap 9-2
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:
Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for applications involving a single population mean, proportion and variance
Formulate a decision rule for testing a hypothesis
Know how to use the test statistic, critical value, and p-value approaches to test the null hypothesis
Know what Type I and Type II errors are
Compute the probability of a Type II error
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-3
What is a Hypothesis?
We perform of hypothesis only when we are
making a decision about a population
parameter based the value of a sample statistic.
Consider an example of a person who has been
indicted for committing a crime and is being
tried in a court.
Based on the available evidence, the judge will
make one of the following decisions:
The person is not guilty (null hypothesis, Ho).
The person is guilty (alternative hypothesis, H1).
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-4
What is a Hypothesis?
A null hypothesis is a claim about a population
parameter that is assumed to be true until it is
declared false.
An alternative hypothesis is a claim about a
population parameter that will be true if the null
hypothesis is false.
The alternative hypothesis is often what the test
is attempting to establish.
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-5
What is a Hypothesis?
The research hypothesis should be expressed
as the alternative hypothesis
Manufacturers’ claims are usually given the
benefit of the doubt and stated as the null
hypothesis.
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-6
What is a Hypothesis?
In the court example, we start the prosecution
by assuming the person is not guilty.
The prosecutors collect all possible evidences
to prove the null hypothesis is false (guilty).
Rejection and nonrejection regions
Not enough evidence to declare the
person guilty and, hence, the null
hypothesis is not rejected in this region
Enough evidence to declare the person
guilty and, hence, the null hypothesis is
rejected in this region
Nonrejection region Rejection region
C
Critical
point
Level of
evidence 0
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-7
What is a Hypothesis?
Actual Situation
The person is not guilty
The person is guilty
Court’s decision
The person is not guilty
Correct decision Type II or
error
The person is guilty Type I or
error Correct decision
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-8
What is a Hypothesis?
Remember: a hypothesis is a claim (assumption) about a population parameter:
population mean
population proportion
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
of this city is µ = $42
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is P = .68
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-9
The Null Hypothesis, H0
States the assumption (numerical) to be
tested
Example: The average number of TV sets in
U.S. Homes is at least three ( )
Is always about a population parameter,
not about a sample statistic
3μ:H0
3μ:H0 3x:H0
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-10
The Null Hypothesis, H0
Begin with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true
Similar to the notion of innocent until
proven guilty
Refers to the status quo
Always contains “=” , “≤” or “” sign
May or may not be rejected
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-11
The Alternative Hypothesis, HA
Is the opposite of the null hypothesis
e.g.: The average number of TV sets in U.S.
homes is less than 3 ( HA: µ < 3 )
Challenges the status quo
Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “” sign
May or may not be accepted
Is generally the hypothesis that is believed
(or needs to be supported) by the
researcher – a research hypothesis
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-12
Formulating Hypotheses
Left-Tailed
Test
Right-Tailed
Test
Two-Tailed
Test
Sign in the null
hypothesis Ho = or = or =
Sign in the alternative
hypothesis HA < >
Critical region In the left tail In the right tail In both tails
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-13
Formulating Hypotheses
Example 1: Ford motor company has
worked to reduce road noise inside the cab
of the redesigned F150 pickup truck. It
would like to report in its advertising that
the truck is quieter. The average of the
prior design was 68 decibels at 60 mph.
What is the appropriate hypothesis test?
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-14
Formulating Hypotheses
Example 1: Ford motor company has worked to reduce road noise inside
the cab of the redesigned F150 pickup truck. It would like to report in its
advertising that the truck is quieter. The average of the prior design was
68 decibels at 60 mph.
What is the appropriate test?
H0: µ ≥ 68 (the truck is not quieter) status quo
HA: µ < 68 (the truck is quieter) wants to support
If the null hypothesis is rejected, Ford has sufficient evidence to support that the truck is now quieter.
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-15
Formulating Hypotheses
Example 2: The average annual income of
buyers of Ford F150 pickup trucks is
claimed to be $65,000 per year. An
industry analyst would like to test this
claim.
What is the appropriate hypothesis test?
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-16
Formulating Hypotheses
Example 1: The average annual income of buyers of Ford F150 pickup trucks is claimed to be $65,000 per year. An industry analyst would like to test this claim.
What is the appropriate test?
H0: µ = 65,000 (income is as claimed) status quo
HA: µ ≠ 65,000 (income is different than claimed)
The analyst will believe the claim unless sufficient evidence is found to discredit it.
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Population
Claim: the population mean age is 50.
Null Hypothesis:
REJECT
Suppose the sample
mean age is 20:
x = 20
Sample
Null Hypothesis
Is x = 20
likely if
µ = 50?
Hypothesis Testing Process
If not likely,
Now select a random sample:
H0: µ = 50
Chap 9-17 QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-18
Sampling Distribution of x
μ = 50 If H0 is true
If it is unlikely that
we would get a
sample mean of
this value ...
... then we
reject the null
hypothesis that
μ = 50.
Reason for Rejecting H0
20
... if in fact this were
the population mean…
x
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-19
Errors in Making Decisions
Type I Error
Reject a true null hypothesis
Considered a serious type of error
The probability of Type I Error is
Called level of significance of the test
Set by researcher in advance
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-20
Errors in Making Decisions
Type II Error
Fail to reject a false null hypothesis
The probability of Type II Error is β
β is a calculated value, the formula is
discussed later in the chapter
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-21
Outcomes and Probabilities
State of Nature
Decision
Do Not
Reject
H 0
No error
(1 - )
Type II Error
( β )
Reject
H 0
Type I Error
( )
Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes
H0 False H0 True
Key:
Outcome
(Probability) No Error
( 1 - β )
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-22
Type I & II Error Relationship
Type I and Type II errors cannot happen at the same time
Type I error can only occur if H0 is true
Type II error can only occur if H0 is false
If Type I error probability ( ) , then
Type II error probability ( β )
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-23
Factors Affecting Type II Error
All else equal,
β when the difference between
hypothesized parameter and its true value
β when
β when σ
β when n
The formula used to
compute the value of β
is discussed later in the
chapter
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
If you increase the significance level, you reduce
the region of acceptance. As a result, you are
more likely to reject the null hypothesis. This
means you are less likely to accept the null
hypothesis when it is false
Chap 9-24
Level of Significance,
Defines unlikely values of sample statistic if
null hypothesis is true
Defines rejection region of the sampling
distribution
Is designated by , (level of significance)
Typical values are .01, .05, or .10
Is selected by the researcher at the beginning
Provides the critical value(s) of the test
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-25
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean
σ Known σ Unknown
Hypothesis
Tests for
Assume first that the population
standard deviation σ is known
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-26
1. Specify population parameter of interest
2. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses
3. Specify the desired significance level, α
4. Define the rejection region
5. Take a random sample and determine
whether or not the sample result is in the
rejection region
6. Reach a decision and draw a conclusion
Process of Hypothesis Testing
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-27
Level of Significance and the Rejection Region
H0: μ ≥ 3
HA: μ < 3
0
H0: μ ≤ 3
HA: μ > 3
H0: μ = 3
HA: μ ≠ 3
/2
Lower tail test
Level of significance =
0
/2
Upper tail test Two tailed test
0
-zα zα -zα/2 zα/2
Reject H0 Reject H0 Reject H0 Reject H0 Do not
reject H0
Do not
reject H0
Do not
reject H0
Example: Example: Example:
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-28
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
The cutoff value, or ,
is called a critical value
-zα
xα
-zα xα
0
µ=3
H0: μ ≥ 3
HA: μ < 3
n
σzμx
Critical Value for Lower Tail Test
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-29
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
Critical Value for Upper Tail Test
zα
xα
0
H0: μ ≤ 3
HA: μ > 3
n
σzμx
µ=3
The cutoff value, or ,
is called a critical value
zα xα
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-30
Do not reject H0 Reject H0 Reject H0
There are two cutoff
values (critical values):
or
Critical Values for Two Tailed Tests
/2
-zα/2
xα/2
± zα/2
xα/2
0
H0: μ = 3
HA: μ 3
zα/2
xα/2
n
σzμx /2/2
Lower
Upper xα/2
Lower Upper
/2
µ=3
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-31
The Rejection Region
H0: μ ≥ 3
HA: μ < 3
0
H0: μ ≤ 3
HA: μ > 3
H0: μ = 3
HA: μ ≠ 3
/2
Lower tail test
0
/2
Upper tail test Two tailed test
0
-zα zα -zα/2 zα/2
Reject H0 Reject H0 Reject H0 Reject H0 Do not
reject H0
Do not
reject H0
Do not
reject H0
Example: Example: Example:
Reject H0 if z < -zα
i.e., if x < xα
αx αx α/2(L)x α/2(U)x
Reject H0 if z > zα
i.e., if x > xα
Reject H0 if z < -zα/2 or z > zα/2
i.e., if x < xα/2(L) or x > xα/2(U)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-32
z-units: For given , find the critical z value(s):
-zα , zα ,or ±zα/2
Convert the sample mean x to a z test statistic:
Reject H0 if z is in the rejection region,
otherwise do not reject H0
x units: Given , calculate the critical value(s)
xα , or xα/2(L) and xα/2(U)
The sample mean is the test statistic. Reject H0 if x is in the
rejection region, otherwise do not reject H0
Two Equivalent Approaches to Hypothesis Testing
n
σ
μxz
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-33
Hypothesis Testing Example
Test the claim that the true mean # of TV
sets in US homes is at least 3.
(Assume σ = 0.8)
1. Specify the population value of interest
The mean number of TVs in US homes
2. Formulate the appropriate null and alternative
hypotheses
H0: μ 3 HA: μ < 3 (This is a lower tail
test)
3. Specify the desired level of significance
Suppose that = .05 is chosen for this test QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-34
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
4. Determine the rejection region
= .05
-zα= -1.645 0
This is a one-tailed test with = .05.
Since σ is known, the cutoff value is a z value:
Reject H0 if z < z = -1.645 ; otherwise do not reject H0
Hypothesis Testing Example (continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-35
5. Obtain sample evidence and compute the
test statistic
Suppose a sample is taken with the following
results: n = 100, x = 2.84 ( = 0.8 is assumed known)
Then the test statistic is:
2.0.08
.16
100
0.8
32.84
n
σ
μxz
Hypothesis Testing Example
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-36
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
= .05
-1.645 0
6. Reach a decision and interpret the result
-2.0
Since z = -2.0 < -1.645, we reject the null
hypothesis that the mean number of TVs in US
homes is at least 3. There is sufficient evidence
that the mean is less than 3.
Hypothesis Testing Example (continued)
z
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-37
Reject H0
= .05
2.8684
Do not reject H0
3
An alternate way of constructing rejection region:
2.84
Since x = 2.84 < 2.8684, we reject the null hypothesis
Hypothesis Testing Example (continued)
x
Now
expressed
in x, not z
units
2.8684100
0.81.6453
n
σzμx αα
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-38
Convert Sample Statistic ( ) to Test Statistic
(a z value, if σ is known)
Determine the p-value from a table or
computer
Compare the p-value with
If p-value < , reject H0
If p-value , do not reject H0
x
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
p-Value Approach to Testing
Chap 9-39
p-Value Approach to Testing
p-value: Probability of obtaining a test
statistic more extreme ( ≤ or ) than the
observed sample value given H0 is true
Also called observed level of significance
Smallest value of for which H0 can be
rejected
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-40
p-value =.0228
= .05
p-value example
Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean
of 2.84 (or something further below the mean) if
the true mean is = 3.0?
2.8684 3
2.84
x .02282.0)P(z
1000.8
3.02.84zP
3.0)μ|2.84xP(
0 -1.645 -2.0
z
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-41
Compare the p-value with
If p-value < , reject H0
If p-value , do not reject H0
Here: p-value = .0228 = .05
Since .0228 < .05, we reject
the null hypothesis
(continued)
p-value example
p-value =.0228
= .05
2.8684 3
2.84 QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-42
Example: Upper Tail z Test for Mean ( Known)
A phone industry manager thinks that
customer monthly cell phone bill have
increased, and now average over $52 per
month. The company wishes to test this
claim. (Assume = 10 is known)
H0: μ ≤ 52 the average is not over $52 per month
HA: μ > 52 the average is greater than $52 per month (i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the manager’s claim)
Form hypothesis test:
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-43
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
Suppose that = .10 is chosen for this test
Find the rejection region:
= .10
zα=1.28 0
Reject H0
Reject H0 if z > 1.28
Example: Find Rejection Region (continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-44
Review: Finding Critical Value - One Tail
Z .07 .09
1.1 .3790 .3810 .3830
1.2 .3980 .4015
1.3 .4147 .4162 .4177 z 0 1.28
.08
Standard Normal
Distribution Table (Portion) What is z given = 0.10?
= .10
Critical Value
= 1.28
.90
.3997
.10
.40 .50
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-45
Obtain sample evidence and compute the test
statistic
Suppose a sample is taken with the following
results: n = 64, x = 53.1 (=10 was assumed known)
Then the test statistic is:
0.88
64
10
5253.1
n
σ
μxz
Example: Test Statistic (continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-46
Reject H0 Do not reject H0
Example: Decision
= .10
1.28 0
Reject H0
Do not reject H0 since z = 0.88 ≤ 1.28
i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the mean bill is over $52
z = .88
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-47
Reject H0
= .10
Do not reject H0 1.28
0
Reject H0
z = .88
Calculate the p-value and compare to
(continued)
.1894
.3106.50.88)P(z
6410
52.053.1zP
52.0)μ|53.1xP(
p-value = .1894
p -Value Solution
Do not reject H0 since p-value = .1894 > = .10
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-48
Critical Value Approach to Testing
When σ is known, convert sample statistic ( ) to
a z test statistic
x
Known Unknown
Hypothesis
Tests for
The test statistic is:
n
σ
μxz
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-49
Critical Value Approach to Testing
When σ is unknown, convert sample statistic ( )
to a t test statistic
x
Known Unknown
Hypothesis
Tests for
The test statistic is:
n
s
μxt 1n
(The population must be
approximately normal)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-50
Hypothesis Tests for μ, σ Unknown
1. Specify the population value of interest
2. Formulate the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses
3. Specify the desired level of significance
4. Determine the rejection region (critical values are from the t-distribution with n-1 d.f.)
5. Obtain sample evidence and compute the t test statistic
6. Reach a decision and interpret the result
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-51
Example: Two-Tail Test ( Unknown)
The average cost of a
hotel room in New York
is said to be $168 per
night. A random sample
of 25 hotels resulted in
x = $172.50 and
s = $15.40. Test at the
= 0.05 level. (Assume the population distribution is normal)
H0: μ = 168
HA: μ 168
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-52
= 0.05
n = 25
Critical Values:
t24 = ± 2.0639
is unknown, so
use a t statistic
Example Solution: Two-Tail Test
Do not reject H0: not sufficient evidence that
true mean cost is different than $168
Reject H0 Reject H0
/2=.025
-tα/2
Do not reject H0
0 tα/2
/2=.025
-2.0639 2.0639
1.46
25
15.40
168172.50
n
s
μxt 1n
1.46
H0: μ = 168
HA: μ 168
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-53
Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
Involves categorical values
Two possible outcomes
“Success” (possesses a certain characteristic)
“Failure” (does not possesses that characteristic)
Fraction or proportion of population in the
“success” category is denoted by P
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-54
Proportions
The sample proportion of successes is denoted
by 𝑝 :
When both nP and n(1- P) are at least 5, 𝑝 is
approximately normally distributed with mean
and standard deviation
(continued)
sizesample
sampleinsuccessesofnumber
n
xp̂
Pμ p̂ n
P)P(1σ p̂
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-55
The sampling
distribution of p is
normal, so the test
statistic is a z
value:
Hypothesis Tests for Proportions
n
P)P(1
Pp̂z
nP 5
and
n(1-P) 5
Hypothesis
Tests for P
nP < 5
or
n(1-P) < 5
Not discussed
in this chapter
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-56
Example: z Test for Proportion
A marketing company
claims that it receives
8% responses from its
mailing. To test this
claim, a random sample
of 500 were surveyed
with 25 responses. Test
at the = .05
significance level.
Check:
n P = (500)(.08) = 40
n(1-P) = (500)(.92) = 460
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-57
Z Test for Proportion: Solution
= .05
n = 500, 𝑝 = .05
Reject H0 at = .05
H0: P = .08
HA: P .08
Critical Values: ± 1.96
Test Statistic:
Decision:
Conclusion:
z 0
Reject Reject
.025 .025
1.96
-2.47
There is sufficient
evidence to reject the
company’s claim of 8%
response rate.
2.47
500
.08).08(1
.08.05
n
P)P(1
Pp̂z
-1.96
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-58
Do not reject H0
Reject H0 Reject H0
/2 = .025
1.96 0
z = -2.47
Calculate the p-value and compare to (For a two sided test the p-value is always two sided)
(continued)
0.01362(.0068)
.4932)2(.5
2.47)P(x2.47)P(z
p-value = .0136:
p -Value Solution
Reject H0 since p-value = .0136 < = .05
z = 2.47
-1.96
/2 = .025
.0068 .0068
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-59
Reject
H0: μ 52
Do not reject H0 : μ 52
Type II Error
Type II error is the probability of
failing to reject a false H0
52 50
Suppose we fail to reject H0: μ 52
when in fact the true mean is μ = 50
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-60
Reject
H0: 52
Do not reject H0 : 52
Type II Error
Suppose we do not reject H0: 52 when in fact
the true mean is = 50
52 50
This is the true
distribution of x if = 50
This is the range of x where
H0 is not rejected
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-61
Reject
H0: μ 52
Do not reject H0 : μ 52
Type II Error
Suppose we do not reject H0: μ 52 when
in fact the true mean is μ = 50
52 50
β
Here, β = P( x cutoff ) if μ = 50
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-62
Reject
H0: μ 52
Do not reject H0 : μ 52
Suppose n = 64 , σ = 6 , and = .05
52 50
So β = P( x 50.766 ) if μ = 50
Calculating β
50.76664
61.64552
n
σzμxcutoff
(for H0 : μ 52)
50.766
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-63
Reject
H0: μ 52
Do not reject H0 : μ 52
.1539.3461.51.02)P(z
646
5050.766zP50)μ|50.766xP(
Suppose n = 64 , σ = 6 , and = .05
52 50
Calculating β (continued)
Probability of
type II error:
β = .1539
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Single Population
Hypothesis Tests for Variances
Tests for a Single
Population Variance
Chi-Square test statistic
H0: σ2 = σ0
2
HA: σ2 ≠ σ02
H0: σ2 σ0
2
HA: σ2 < σ02
H0: σ2 ≤ σ0
2
HA: σ2 > σ02
* Two tailed test
Lower tail test
Upper tail test
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-64
Chi-Square Test Statistic
Hypothesis Tests for Variances
Tests for a Single
Population Variance
Chi-Square test statistic *
The chi-squared test statistic for
a Single Population Variance is:
2
22
σ
1)s(n
where
2 = standardized chi-square variable
n = sample size
s2 = sample variance
σ2 = hypothesized variance
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-65
The Chi-square Distribution
The chi-square distribution is a family of
distributions, depending on degrees of freedom
(Like the t distribution).
The chi-square distribution curve starts at the
origin and lies entirely to the right of the vertical
axis.
The chi-square distribution assumes
nonnegative values only, and these are denoted
by the symbol 2 (read as “chi-square”).
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-66
The Chi-square Distribution
The shape of a specific chi-square distribution
depends on the number of degrees of freedom.
peak of a 2 distribution curve with 1 or 2
degrees of freedom occurs at zero and for a
curve with 3 or more degrees of freedom at
(df−2).
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
d.f. = 1 d.f. = 5 d.f. = 15
2 2 2
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-67
Finding the Critical Value
The critical value, , is found from the
chi-square table
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
2
2
2
H0: σ2 ≤ σ0
2
HA: σ2 > σ02
Upper tail test:
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-68
Finding the Critical Value
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-70
Example: Find the value of 2 for 7 degrees of freedom and an
area of .10 in the right tail of the chi-square distribution curve.
Finding the Critical Value
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-71
Example: Find the value of 2 for 9 degrees of freedom and an
area of .05 in the left tail of the chi-square distribution curve.
Example
A commercial freezer must hold the selected
temperature with little variation. Specifications call
for a standard deviation of no more than 4 degrees
(or variance of 16 degrees2). A sample of 16
freezers is tested and
yields a sample variance
of s2 = 24. Test to see
whether the standard
deviation specification
is exceeded. Use
= .05
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-72
Finding the Critical Value
Use the chi-square table to find the critical value:
Do not reject H0 Reject H0
= .05
2
2
2
= 24.9958
= 24.9958 ( = .05 and 16 – 1 = 15 d.f.)
22.516
1)24(16
σ
1)s(n2
22
The test statistic is:
Since 22.5 < 24.9958,
do not reject H0
There is not significant
evidence at the = .05 level
that the standard deviation
specification is exceeded
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-73
Lower Tail or Two Tailed Chi-square Tests
H0: σ2 = σ0
2
HA: σ2 ≠ σ02
H0: σ2 σ0
2
HA: σ2 < σ02
2/2
Do not reject H0 Reject
21-
2
Do not reject H0
Reject
/2
21-/2
2
/2
Reject
Lower tail test: Two tail test:
(2U) (2
L)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-74
Confidence Interval Estimate for σ2
2/2
/2
21-/2
2
/2
(2U) (2
L)
The confidence interval estimate for σ2 is
2
L
22
2
U
2 1)s(nσ
1)s(n
χχ
Where 2L and 2
U are from the
2 distribution with n -1 degrees
of freedom
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-75
Example
A sample of 16 freezers yields a sample
variance of s2 = 24.
Form a 95% confidence interval for the
population variance.
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 11-76
Problems
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Suppose a sample of 30 ECC students are given an IQ test. If
the sample has a standard deviation of 12.23 points, find a
90% confidence interval for the population standard deviation.
Chap 11-78
Problems
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 8-80
Example: Consider Ho : = 23, HA: 23
o What type of error would you make if the null hypothesis is
actually false and you fail to reject it?
o What type of error would you make if the null hypothesis is
actually true and you reject it?
Problems
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 8-81
Example: Write the null and alternative hypotheses for each of
the following examples. Determine if each is a case of a two-
tailed, a left-tailed, or a right-tailed test.
o To test if the mean number of hours spent working per week
by college students who hold jobs is different from 20 hours.
o To test whether or not a bank's ATM is out of service for an
average of more than 10 hours per month.
o To test if the mean length of experience of airport security
guards is different from three years.
o To test if the mean credit card debt of college seniors is less
than $1000.
Problems
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 8-83
The management of Priority Health Club claims that its
members lose an average of 10 pounds or more within the first
month after joining the club. A consumer agency that wants to
check this claim took a random sample of 36 members of this
health club and found that they lost an average of 9.2 pounds
within the first month of membership with a standard deviation
of 2.4 pounds.
o Find the p-value for this test.
o What will your decision be if = .01? What if = .05?
Problems
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 8-85
Canon Inc. has introduced a copying machine that features
two-color copying capability in a compact system copier. The
average speed of the standard compact system copier is 27
copies per minute. Suppose the company wants to test
whether the new copier has the same average speed as its
standard compact copier. Conduct a test at an = 0.05 level
of significance.
Ho : = 27
HA : 27
n = 24
Problems
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal Chap 8-87
Direct Mailing Company sells computers and computer parts by
mail. The company claims that at least 90% of all orders are
mailed within 72 hours after they are received. The quality
control department at the company often takes samples to
check if this claim is valid. A recently taken sample of 150
orders showed that 129 of them were mailed within 72 hours.
Do you think the company's claim is true? Use a 2.5%
significance level.
Chap 9-92
Chapter Summary
Addressed hypothesis testing methodology
Performed z Test for the mean (σ known)
Discussed p–value approach to
hypothesis testing
Performed one-tail and two-tail tests . . .
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal
Chap 9-93
Chapter Summary
Performed t test for the mean (σ
unknown)
Performed z test for the proportion
Discussed Type II error and computed its
probability
(continued)
QMIS 220, by Dr. M. Zainal