business statistics: contemporary decision making, 3e, by black. © 2001 south-western/thomson...
TRANSCRIPT
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-1
Business Statistics, 3eby Ken Black
Chapter 5
DiscreteDistributions
Discrete Distributions
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-2
Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
• Distinguish between discrete random variables and continuous random variables.
• Know how to determine the mean and variance of a discrete distribution.
• Identify the type of statistical experiments that can be described by the binomial distribution, and know how to work such problems.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-3
Learning Objectives -- ContinuedLearning Objectives -- Continued
• Decide when to use the Poisson distribution in analyzing statistical experiments, and know how to work such problems.
• Decide when binomial distribution problems can be approximated by the Poisson distribution, and know how to work such problems.
• Decide when to use the hypergeometric distribution, and know how to work such problems.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-4
Discrete vs Continuous DistributionsDiscrete vs Continuous Distributions• Random Variable -- a variable which contains
the outcomes of a chance experiment• Discrete Random Variable -- the set of all
possible values is at most a finite or a countably infinite number of possible values– Number of new subscribers to a magazine– Number of bad checks received by a restaurant– Number of absent employees on a given day
• Continuous Random Variable -- takes on values at every point over a given interval– Current Ratio of a motorcycle distributorship– Elapsed time between arrivals of bank customers– Percent of the labor force that is unemployed
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-5
Some Special DistributionsSome Special Distributions
• Discrete– binomial– Poisson– hypergeometric
• Continuous– normal– uniform– exponential– t– chi-square– F
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-6
Discrete Distribution -- ExampleDiscrete Distribution -- Example
012345
0.370.310.180.090.040.01
Number of Crises Probability
Distribution of Daily Crises
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability
Number of Crises
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-7
Requirements for a Discrete Probability Function
Requirements for a Discrete Probability Function
• Probabilities are between 0 and 1, inclusively
• Total of all probabilities equals 1
0 1 P X( ) for all X
P X( )over all x 1
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-8
Requirements for a Discrete Probability Function -- Examples
Requirements for a Discrete Probability Function -- Examples
X P(X)
-10123
.1
.2
.4
.2
.11.0
X P(X)
-10123
-.1.3.4.3.1
1.0
X P(X)
-10123
.1
.3
.4
.3
.11.2
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-9
Mean of a Discrete DistributionMean of a Discrete Distribution
E X X P X( )
X-10123
P(X).1.2.4.2.1
-.1.0.4.4.3
1.0
X P X ( )
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-10
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Distribution
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Distribution
2.1)(22 XPX
212 110. .
X-10123
P(X).1.2.4.2.1
-2-1012
X 41014
.4
.2
.0
.2
.41.2
2( )X 2( ) ( )X P X
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-11
Mean of the Crises Data ExampleMean of the Crises Data Example
E X X P X( ) .115
X P(X) XP(X)
0 .37 .00
1 .31 .31
2 .18 .36
3 .09 .27
4 .04 .16
5 .01 .05
1.15
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability
Number of Crises
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-12
Variance and Standard Deviation of Crises Data Example
Variance and Standard Deviation of Crises Data Example
22
141 X P X( ) . 2
141 119. .
X P(X) (X- ) (X-)2 (X- )2P(X)
0 .37 -1.15 1.32 .49
1 .31 -0.15 0.02 .01
2 .18 0.85 0.72 .13
3 .09 1.85 3.42 .31
4 .04 2.85 8.12 .32
5 .01 3.85 14.82 .15
1.41
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-13
Binomial DistributionBinomial Distribution• Experiment involves n identical trials• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes: success
and failure• Each trial is independent of the previous trials
– p is the probability of a success on any one trial– q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one
trial– p and q are constant throughout the experiment– X is the number of successes in the n trials
• Applications– Sampling with replacement – Sampling without replacement -- n < 5% N
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-14
Binomial DistributionBinomial Distribution
• Probability function
• Mean value
• Variance and standard deviation
P Xn
X n XX n
X n Xp q( )!
! !
for 0
n p
2
2
n p q
n p q
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-15
Binomial Distribution: DevelopmentBinomial Distribution: Development
• Experiment: randomly select, with replacement, two families from the residents of Tiny Town
• Success is ‘Children in Household:’ p = 0.75• Failure is ‘No Children in Household:’ q = 1- p =
0.25• X is the number of families in the sample with
‘Children in Household’
Family Children in Household
Number of Automobiles
ABCD
YesYesNo
Yes
3212
Listing of Sample Space
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (D,D),(B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D),(C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D),(D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-16
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
• Families A, B, and D have children in the household; family C does not
• Success is ‘Children in Household:’ p = 0.75
• Failure is ‘No Children in Household:’ q = 1- p = 0.25
• X is the number of families in the sample with ‘Children in Household’
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (D,D),(B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D),(C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D),(D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)
Listing of Sample Space
2122221211012212
X
1/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/16
P(outcome)
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-17
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
(A,B),(A,C),(A,D),(D,D),(B,A),(B,B),(B,C),(B,D),(C,A),(C,B),(C,C),(C,D),(D,A),(D,B),(D,C),(D,D)
Listing ofSampleSpace
2122221211012212
X
1/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/161/16
P(outcome) X
012
1/166/169/16
1
P(X)
P Xn
X n X
x n xp q( )!
! !
P X( )!
!.. .
02
0! 2 00 0625
1
160 2 075 25
P X( )!
! !.. .
12
1 2 10 375
3
161 2 175 25
P X( )!
! !.. .
22
2 2 20 5625
9
162 2 275 25
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-18
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
• Families A, B, and D have children in the household; family C does not
• Success is ‘Children in Household:’ p = 0.75
• Failure is ‘No Children in Household:’ q = 1- p = 0.25
• X is the number of families in the sample with ‘Children in Household’
XPossible
Sequences
0
1
1
2
(F,F)
(S,F)
(F,S)
(S,S)
P(sequence)
(. )(. ) (. )25 25 225
(. )(. )25 75
(. )(. )75 25
(. )(. ) (. )75 75 275
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-19
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
Binomial Distribution: Development Continued
XPossible
Sequences
0
1
1
2
(F,F)
(S,F)
(F,S)
(S,S)
P(sequence)
(. )(. ) (. )25 25 225
(. )(. )25 75
(. )(. )75 25
(. )(. ) (. )75 75 275
X
0
1
2
P(X)
(. )(. )25 752 =0.375
(. )(. ) (. )75 75 275 =0.5625
(. )(. ) (. )25 25 225 =0.0625
P Xn
X n X
x n xp q( )!
! !
P X( )!
!.. .
02
0! 2 00 0625
0 2 075 25 P X( )!
! !.. .
12
1 2 10 375
1 2 175 25
P X( )!
! !.. .
22
2 2 205625
2 2 275 25
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-20
Binomial Distribution: Demonstration Problem 5.3
Binomial Distribution: Demonstration Problem 5.3
n
p
q
P X P X P X P X
20
06
94
2 0 1 2
2901 3703 2246 8850
.
.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
. . . .
P X( ))!
( )( )(. ) .. .
020!
0!(20 01 1 2901 2901
0 20 0
06 94
P X( )!( )!
( )(. )(. ) .. .
120!
1 20 120 06 3086 3703
1 20 1
06 94
P X( )!( )!
( )(. )(. ) .. .
220!
2 20 2190 0036 3283 2246
2 20 2
06 94
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-21
Binomial TableBinomial Table
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
0 0.122 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.270 0.058 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.285 0.137 0.028 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.190 0.205 0.072 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.090 0.218 0.130 0.035 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0005 0.032 0.175 0.179 0.075 0.015 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0006 0.009 0.109 0.192 0.124 0.037 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.0007 0.002 0.055 0.164 0.166 0.074 0.015 0.001 0.000 0.0008 0.000 0.022 0.114 0.180 0.120 0.035 0.004 0.000 0.0009 0.000 0.007 0.065 0.160 0.160 0.071 0.012 0.000 0.000
10 0.000 0.002 0.031 0.117 0.176 0.117 0.031 0.002 0.00011 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.071 0.160 0.160 0.065 0.007 0.00012 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.035 0.120 0.180 0.114 0.022 0.00013 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.074 0.166 0.164 0.055 0.00214 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.037 0.124 0.192 0.109 0.00915 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.075 0.179 0.175 0.03216 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.035 0.130 0.218 0.09017 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.072 0.205 0.19018 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.028 0.137 0.28519 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.058 0.27020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.122
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-22
Using the Binomial TableDemonstration Problem 5.4
Using the Binomial TableDemonstration Problem 5.4
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
0 0.122 0.012 0.001 0.0001 0.270 0.058 0.007 0.0002 0.285 0.137 0.028 0.0033 0.190 0.205 0.072 0.0124 0.090 0.218 0.130 0.0355 0.032 0.175 0.179 0.0756 0.009 0.109 0.192 0.1247 0.002 0.055 0.164 0.1668 0.000 0.022 0.114 0.1809 0.000 0.007 0.065 0.160
10 0.000 0.002 0.031 0.11711 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.07112 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.03513 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.01514 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00515 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00116 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00017 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00018 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00019 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
n
p
P X C
20
40
10 0117120 1010 10
40 60
.
( ) .. .
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-23
Binomial Distribution using Table: Demonstration Problem 5.3
Binomial Distribution using Table: Demonstration Problem 5.3
n
p
q
P X P X P X P X
20
06
94
2 0 1 2
2901 3703 2246 8850
.
.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
. . . .
P X P X( ) ( ) . . 2 1 2 1 8850 1150
n p ( )(. ) .20 06 1 202
2
20 06 94 1 128
1 128 1 062
n p q ( )(. )(. ) .
. .
n = 20 PROBABILITYX 0.05 0.06 0.070 0.3585 0.2901 0.23421 0.3774 0.3703 0.35262 0.1887 0.2246 0.25213 0.0596 0.0860 0.11394 0.0133 0.0233 0.03645 0.0022 0.0048 0.00886 0.0003 0.0008 0.00177 0.0000 0.0001 0.00028 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
… … … …20 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-24
Graphs of Selected Binomial DistributionsGraphs of Selected Binomial Distributionsn = 4 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.5 0.90 0.656 0.063 0.0001 0.292 0.250 0.0042 0.049 0.375 0.0493 0.004 0.250 0.2924 0.000 0.063 0.656
P = 0.1
0.0000.1000.200
0.3000.4000.5000.6000.700
0.8000.9001.000
0 1 2 3 4X
P(X
)
P = 0.5
0.0000.1000.200
0.3000.4000.5000.6000.700
0.8000.9001.000
0 1 2 3 4X
P(X
)
P = 0.9
0.0000.1000.200
0.3000.4000.5000.6000.700
0.8000.9001.000
0 1 2 3 4X
P(X
)
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-25
Poisson DistributionPoisson Distribution
• Describes discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval
• A discrete distribution• Describes rare events• Each occurrence is independent any other
occurrences.• The number of occurrences in each interval
can vary from zero to infinity.• The expected number of occurrences must
hold constant throughout the experiment.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-26
Poisson Distribution: ApplicationsPoisson Distribution: Applications
• Arrivals at queueing systems– airports -- people, airplanes, automobiles, baggage– banks -- people, automobiles, loan applications– computer file servers -- read and write operations
• Defects in manufactured goods– number of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded
copper wire– number of blemishes per square foot of painted
surface– number of errors per typed page
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-27
Poisson DistributionPoisson Distribution
• Probability function
P XX
X
where
long run average
e
X e( )!
, , , ,...
:
. ...
for
(the base of natural logarithms )
0 1 2 3
2 718282
Mean valueMean value
Standard deviationStandard deviation VarianceVariance
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-28
Poisson Distribution: Demonstration Problem 5.7
Poisson Distribution: Demonstration Problem 5.7
3 2
6 4
1010
0 05286 4
.
!
!.
.
customers / 4 minutes
X = 10 customers / 8 minutes
Adjusted
= . customers / 8 minutes
P(X) =
( = ) =
X
106.4
e
eX
P X
3 2
6 4
66
0 15866 4
.
!
!.
.
customers / 4 minutes
X = 6 customers / 8 minutes
Adjusted
= . customers / 8 minutes
P(X) =
( = ) =
X
66.4
e
eX
P X
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-29
Poisson Distribution: Probability TablePoisson Distribution: Probability Table
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0 3.2 6.4 6.5 7.0 8.00 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498 0.0408 0.0017 0.0015 0.0009 0.00031 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494 0.1304 0.0106 0.0098 0.0064 0.00272 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240 0.2087 0.0340 0.0318 0.0223 0.01073 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240 0.2226 0.0726 0.0688 0.0521 0.02864 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680 0.1781 0.1162 0.1118 0.0912 0.05735 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008 0.1140 0.1487 0.1454 0.1277 0.09166 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504 0.0608 0.1586 0.1575 0.1490 0.12217 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216 0.0278 0.1450 0.1462 0.1490 0.13968 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081 0.0111 0.1160 0.1188 0.1304 0.13969 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0040 0.0825 0.0858 0.1014 0.1241
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0013 0.0528 0.0558 0.0710 0.099311 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 0.0307 0.0330 0.0452 0.072212 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0164 0.0179 0.0263 0.048113 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0081 0.0089 0.0142 0.029614 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 0.0041 0.0071 0.016915 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0018 0.0033 0.009016 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007 0.0014 0.004517 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0003 0.0006 0.002118 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0009
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-30
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.00 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.04981 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.14942 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.22403 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.22404 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.16805 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.10086 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.05047 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.02168 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.00819 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.002710 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000811 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000212 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
1 6
4 0 0551
.
( ) .P X
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-31
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.00 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.04981 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.14942 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.22403 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.22404 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.16805 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.10086 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.05047 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.02168 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.00819 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.002710 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000811 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000212 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
1 6
5 6 7 8 9
0047 0011 0002 0000 0060
.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
. . . . .
P X P X P X P X P X
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-32
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables
Poisson Distribution: Using the Poisson Tables
1 6
2 1 2 1 0 1
1 2019 3230 4751
.
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
. . .
P X P X P X P X
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.00 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.04981 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.14942 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.22403 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.22404 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.16805 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.10086 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.05047 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.02168 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.00819 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.002710 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000811 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000212 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-33
Poisson Distribution: GraphsPoisson Distribution: Graphs
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 6.
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
6 5.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-34
Poisson Approximation of the Binomial Distribution
Poisson Approximation of the Binomial Distribution
• Binomial probabilities are difficult to calculate when n is large.
• Under certain conditions binomial probabilities may be approximated by Poisson probabilities.
• Poisson approximation
If and the approximation is acceptable.n n p 20 7,
Use n p.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-35
Poisson Approximation of the Binomial Distribution
Poisson Approximation of the Binomial Distribution
X Error
0 0.2231 0.2181 -0.0051
1 0.3347 0.3372 0.0025
2 0.2510 0.2555 0.0045
3 0.1255 0.1264 0.0009
4 0.0471 0.0459 -0.0011
5 0.0141 0.0131 -0.0010
6 0.0035 0.0030 -0.0005
7 0.0008 0.0006 -0.0002
8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Poisson
1 5.
Binomial
n
p
50
03.X Error
0 0.0498 0.0498 0.0000
1 0.1494 0.1493 0.0000
2 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
3 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
4 0.1680 0.1681 0.0000
5 0.1008 0.1008 0.0000
6 0.0504 0.0504 0.0000
7 0.0216 0.0216 0.0000
8 0.0081 0.0081 0.0000
9 0.0027 0.0027 0.0000
10 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000
11 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000
12 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Poisson
3 0.
Binomial
n
p
10 000
0003
,
.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-36
Hypergeometric DistributionHypergeometric Distribution
• Sampling without replacement from a finite population
• The number of objects in the population is denoted N.
• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes, success and failure.
• Trials are not independent• X is the number of successes in the n trials• The binomial is an acceptable approximation, if n <
5% N. Otherwise it is not.
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-37
Hypergeometric DistributionHypergeometric Distribution
• Probability function– N is population size– n is sample size– A is number of successes in population– x is number of successes in sample
A n
N
2
2
2
1
A N A n N n
NN( ) ( )
( )
P x
C C
C
A x N A n x
N n( )
• Mean value
• Variance and standard deviation
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-38
Hypergeometric Distribution:Probability Computations
Hypergeometric Distribution:Probability Computations
N = 24
X = 8
n = 5
x
0 0.1028
1 0.3426
2 0.3689
3 0.1581
4 0.0264
5 0.0013
P(x)
P xC C
CC C
C
A x N A n x
N n( )
,
.
3
56 120
42 504
1581
8 3 24 8 5 3
24 5
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-39
Hypergeometric Distribution: GraphHypergeometric Distribution: Graph
N = 24
X = 8
n = 5
x
0 0.1028
1 0.3426
2 0.3689
3 0.1581
4 0.0264
5 0.0013
P(x)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0 1 2 3 4 5
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-40
Hypergeometric Distributio:Demonstration Problem 5.11Hypergeometric Distributio:Demonstration Problem 5.11
X P(X)0 0.02451 0.22062 0.48533 0.2696
N = 18n = 3A = 12
P x P x P x P x
C C
C
C C
C
C C
C
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
. . .
.
1 1 2 3
2206 4853 2696
9755
12 1 18 12 3 1
18 3
12 2 18 12 3 2
18 3
12 3 18 12 3 3
18 3
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-41
Hypergeometric Distribution:Binomial Approximation (large n)
Hypergeometric Distribution:Binomial Approximation (large n)
HypergeometricN = 24X = 8n = 5
Binomialn = 5
p = 8/24 =1/3
x Error
0 0.1028 0.1317 -0.0289
1 0.3426 0.3292 0.0133
2 0.3689 0.3292 0.0397
3 0.1581 0.1646 -0.0065
4 0.0264 0.0412 -0.0148
5 0.0013 0.0041 -0.0028
P(x)P(x)
Business Statistics: Contemporary Decision Making, 3e, by Black. © 2001 South-Western/Thomson Learning 5-42
Hypergeometric Distribution:Binomial Approximation (small n)
Hypergeometric Distribution:Binomial Approximation (small n)
HypergeometricN = 240X = 80n = 5
Binomialn = 5
p = 80/240 =1/3
x P(x) Error0 0.1289 0.1317 -0.00281 0.3306 0.3292 0.00142 0.3327 0.3292 0.00353 0.1642 0.1646 -0.00044 0.0398 0.0412 -0.00145 0.0038 0.0041 -0.0003
P(x)