“But China obscures” you say. I reply. “China obscures but there is clearness to be found; look for it”

Pascal, Pensees

CHINA’S EMERGING SUPER CHINA’S EMERGING SUPER POWER STATUS - POWER STATUS -

IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIAIMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

INTRODUCTION

INDIA AND CHINA

INDIANS DO NOT HAVE A STRATEGIC CULTURE AND DO NOT THINK STRATEGICALLY.

REPORT BY RAND CORPORATION (1996)

“China will emerge as a super power by 2015 AD and if so, what are implications for India and how to meet this Challenge”

THE HYPOTHESIS

AIMAIM

TO EXAMINE EXACT STATUS OF CHINA AS A SUPER POWER BY 2015 AD AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA AND ARRIVE AT A SUITABLE STRATEGIC RESPONSE

SCOPESCOPE

PART 1 - CHINA, A CURRENT PERSPECTIVE

PART 2 - CHINA AND THE WORLD

PART 3 - SINO INDIAN RELATIONS AND THE STRATEGIC DIVIDE

PART 4 - VAIDATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS

PART 5 - INDIA’S STRATEGIC RESPONSE

CONCLUSION

PART 1 - CHINA , A CURRENT PART 1 - CHINA , A CURRENT PERSPECTIVEPERSPECTIVE

BIRTH OF PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINABIRTH OF PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

“ THE CHINESE PEOPLE HAVE STOOD UP. THEY WILL NEVER BE HUMILIATED. ”

MAO ZEDONG

CHINESE CHINESE PERSPECTIVEPERSPECTIVE ON ON NATIONAL SECURITYNATIONAL SECURITY

1. CHINESE SENSE OF IMPERMANENSE

• GONG (ASSENT)

• SHOU (DECLINE)

2. RELATIONSHIPS

3. COMPREHENSIVENESS.

• BAOGUO (PRESERVE THE STATE).

• BAOZHANG (PRESERVE THE RACE).

• BAOJIAO (PRESERVE CIVILISATION).

• BAOMIN (PRESERVE THE PEOPLE).

4. DETERMINISM.

5. STRONG STATE AND STRONG NATION.

RUSSIA

MONGOLIA NORTH& SOUTHKOREA

TAIWANVIETNAM

CIS

INDIA

ASSETS

1. LARGE LAND MASS.

2. VAST MANPOWER.

3. NATURAL RESOURCES.

4. PENINSULAR PROJECTION IN EAST AND SOUTH CHINA SEA.

5. NATURAL BARRIERS.

CHINESE CRESCENT OF INFLUENCE

FOUR POINT MODERNISATION FOUR POINT MODERNISATION PROGRAMMEPROGRAMME

• INDUSTRY

• SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

• DEFENCE FORCES

• AGRICULTURE

SEVEN LARGEST ECONOMIES BY SEVEN LARGEST ECONOMIES BY 2010 AD2010 AD

USA - $ 7, 859 b

JAPAN - $ 3, 714 b

CHINA - $ 3, 791 b

GERMANY - $ 1,525 b

FRANCE - $ 1,410 b

INDIA - $ 1, 330 b

UK - $ 949 b

DEFENCE FORCES - FORCE COMPARISONDEFENCE FORCES - FORCE COMPARISON

USA RUSSIA JAPAN CHINA INDIA

TROOPS 1.37 m 1.00 m .23 m 2.48 m 1.1 m

MBT 7684 15500 1080 8300 3414

APC 17800 10062 840 5500 1500

ARTY 5699 6299 770 14500 4175

SUBMARINES 76 70 16 71 16

AC CARRIERS 12 1 - - 1

AC 4994 1800 330 4041 774

ICBM/SLBM 1165 1363 - 450 -

(DS)

PLA MODERNISATION PROGRAMMEPLA MODERNISATION PROGRAMME

• DOWN SIZING.

• NEW EQUIPMENT.

• SU 30 FLANKERS AND SU 27 AC.

• SU 27 CARRIER BORNE AC.

• XIA CLASS NUCLEAR SUBMARINE WITH SLBMs.

• AC CARRIER.

PART 2 - CHINA AND THE WORLDPART 2 - CHINA AND THE WORLD

OVERVIEW.

SINO – US RELATIONS.

SINO – RUSSIA RELATIONS.

RELATIONS WITH EUROPEAN UNION.

TAIWAN FACTOR

CHINA PAK NEXUS.

RELATIONS WITH JAPAN.

COMMENTS.

PART 3 - SINO INDIAN RELATIONS PART 3 - SINO INDIAN RELATIONS AND THE STRATEGIC DIVIDEAND THE STRATEGIC DIVIDE

CHINA’S PERCEPTION OF INDIA.

IMPLICATION ON INDIA’S SECURITY.

FUTURE RELATIONS.

THE STRATEGIC DIVIDE

PART 4 - VALIDATION OF HYPOTHESIS

CHINESE INTENTIONSCHINESE INTENTIONS

SHORT TERM AIMS

• CONSOLIDATE THE NATION STATE.

• ENSURE UNHINDERED ECONOMIC PROGRESS.

• CREATE A SUPPORT BASE IN COMITY OF NATIONS.

• STRIVE FOR ECONOMIC AND TECHOLOGICAL PARITY.

• IMPROVE BILATERAL RELATIONS.

LONG TERM AIMSLONG TERM AIMS

• ACHIEVE PARITY WITH USA.

• CONTROL WORLD AND ASIAN AFFAIRS.

• RESOLVE BORDER DISPUTES.

• ENSURE CULTURAL, ETHNIC AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.

AIMS AGAINST INDIAAIMS AGAINST INDIA

• ENSURE ENCIRCLEMENT.

• FORCE PARITY BY PAKISTAN.

• BENIGN FRONT.

• PREVENT INDIA’S NUCLEAR POWER STATUS.

• COLLUSIVE SUPPORT FROM INDIA’S NEIGHBOURS.

• LIMITED TO FULL SCALE WAR.

CHINESE CAPABILITIESCHINESE CAPABILITIES

• ECONOMY.

• TECHNOLOGY.

• DEFENCE FORCES.

“ It is only a matter of Time”

Paul Kennedy

(Rise and Fall of Great Powers)

PART 5 - INDIA’S STRATEGIC PART 5 - INDIA’S STRATEGIC RESPONSERESPONSE

• A GEOGRAPHICAL DISADVANTAGE.

• STRATEGIC ENCIRCLEMENT.

STRATEGIC RESPONSESTRATEGIC RESPONSE

• NUCLEAR AND MISSILE DETERRENT.

• CONVENTIONAL FORCE PARITY.

• ENHANCE DEFENCE BUDGET.

• TRI-SERVICE DOCTRINE.

• INDIGENOUS R & D.

• DEVELOP ECONOMY.

• DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES.

•IMPROVE INFRASTRUCTURE IN BORDER AREAS

STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT

CONCLUSION

“ A man cannot be too careful, in the choice of his enemies”

Oscar Wilde