buy (unch.) $0.90 (unch.) resource update · pdf fileaisc us$/oz 805 877 irr - after tax % 22%...
TRANSCRIPT
Beacon Securities Ltd.| 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H1 |416.643.3830 |www.beaconsecurities.ca
Orca Gold Inc.
(ORG-V) Block 14 Resource Update
February 6, 2017
Michael Curran, CFA (416) 507-3950
Orca’s main asset is the Block 14 gold project located
in Sudan, in northeastern Africa. The May 2016 PEA
outlined a robust 1.8MMtpa open pit mine capable of
producing, on average, 73Koz/yr over a 16-year
minelife (+1MMoz in total) at an AISC of US$805/oz, for
an initial capital investment of US$123 million. Orca also
recently added a portfolio of early-staged exploration
ground in Cote d’Ivoire, in West Africa.
Updated Gold Resources: last week, Orca reported an
updated resource estimate for the Block 14 project.
Indicated resources were increased 10%, to 1.8MMoz
(30.6MMt grading 1.82g/t gold). Inferred resources add
a further 0.5MMoz (grading 1.7g/t). We’d expect the
conversion of inferred into indicated to lower the
overall strip ratio in the open pit, thus benefitting
project economics. The updated resources will now be
used in a prefeasibility study (PFS) currently underway
(expected completion later this quarter or in Q2/17).
Longer-term Underground Potential?: several higher
grade intercepts show good potential to support an
underground mine (after open pit mining completed).
Better intercepts at the Wadi Doum (WD) deposit
include: 25m grading 18.4g/t gold, 27m grading 5.5g/t,
30m grading 8.1g/t, 30m grading 5.8g/t, and 14m
grading 13.4g/t.
Similarly at the Galat Sufar South (GSS) deposit,
intercepts with underground potential include: 30m
grading 8g/t, 20m grading 7.2g/t, as well as several
“teens-over-teens” – 10-20m grading 10-20g/t, both at
GSS and Liseiwi (a new target area 15km north of WD).
However, economics for potential underground mining
will not be part of the current PFS.
Resource Update
Previous Close $0.46
12-month Target Price $0.90
Potential Return 97.8%
Dividend Yield 0.0%
Low High
52 Week Price Range $0.14 $0.55
(C$MM, except per unit) FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e
Revenue $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Net Income -$9.9 -$10.3 -$6.8 -$6.0
Shares O/S (wgt avg) 107 108 140 200
EPS (operating) -$0.09 -$0.09 -$0.04 -$0.03
CFPS -$0.09 -$0.09 -$0.04 -$0.03
P/E neg. neg. neg. neg.
P/CF neg. neg. neg. neg.
NAV $0.66 $0.82 $0.86
P/NAV 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x
Shares Outstanding 113.3 million
Mgt/Insiders 8%
(C$MM)
Market Cap $51.5
LT Debt (corporate) $0.0
Working Capital $10.0
Enterprise Value $41.5
Fiscal Year End December 31
2P Reserves - MMoz
M+I Resources 1.6 MMoz
Total Resources (M+I+I) 2.2 MMoz
(C$/sh) Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
EPS (operating) -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.03
CFPS -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.03
Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16e
EPS (operating) -$0.01 -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.03
CFPS -$0.01 -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.03
Orca Gold is a Canadian public company engaged in the acquisition
and exploration of mineral properties in Africa. The main asset is the Block
14 project in Sudan. All prices in C$ unless otherwise indicated.
Stock Performance
BUY (unch.) $0.90 (unch.)
Annual Estimates
Valuation
Financials
Reserves / Resources
Quarterly Actuals/Estimates
Company at a Glance
February 6, 2017 Page | 2 Michael Curran| 416.507.3950 | [email protected]
Orca Gold Inc.
Investment Thesis…Re-rating Opportunity As Block 14
Advances (and drills start turning in Cote d’Ivoire)
We consider Orca Gold Mining to be an attractive investment for the
combination of an undervalued emerging junior gold producer with
expansion potential and exploration upside for free. Orca’s Block 14
deposit in northern Sudan could become a 73Koz/yr open pit mine with
AISC ~US$800/oz. We also see good potential to both increase production
closer to the 100Koz/yr level and lower AISC (for moderately higher capital
investment).
Developing Africa-experienced Management Team – a number of the
senior management and Board of Directors of Orca Gold were involved
with Red Back Mining, which built/expanded the Tasiast gold mine in
Mauritania, before being taken over by Kinross Gold. They were also
active explorers in Cote d’Ivoire.
Fig 1 Block 14 Project: Project Ownership (left) and Location Map (right)
Source: Company reports
Fig 2 Economic Parameters: Block 14 Project
Jul-16 Beacon
PEA model
Initial capital US$MM 123 150
Sustaining capital US$MM 31 35
Resource Size MMt 28 28
Throughput - daily t 5,150 6,300
Throughput - annual MMt 1.8 2.2
Minelife years 16.0 13.0
Mined Grade - Gold g/t 1.52 1.50
Gold recovery % 86% 88%
Gold Production - avg annual Koz 73 93
Gold Production - total lom MMoz 1.17 1.20
Op Costs US$/t 778 780
AISC US$/oz 805 877
IRR - after tax % 22%
Payback - after tax years 4
Source: Company report and Beacon Securities estimates
February 6, 2017 Page | 3 Michael Curran| 416.507.3950 | [email protected]
Orca Gold Inc.
Valuation Methodology
Our favored valuation method for precious metals producers is a price-to-
net-asset-value (P/NAV) multiple based on a discounted cash flow (DCF)
model constructed using our estimates of the parameters of existing or
potential mining operations. We employ long-term assumptions of
US$1,300/oz for gold starting in 2017. Future year cash flows are then
discounted using a base rate of 5%, to which a risk premium is added,
depending on the overall political risk the company’s assets are exposed
to. Orca’s asset exposure to the Sudan is considered medium-high risk (5%
base + 2% premium). Until a prefeasibility study is completed, we also
impose a further 2% premium to our valuation (7% + 2 % premium). For the
newly-acquired exploration portfolio in Cote d’Ivoire, we carry the assets
at the value of ORG shares paid to Kinross.
Fig 3 Net Asset Value Breakdown: Orca Gold Inc.
Discount Rate Ownership Value Per Share (C$/sh)
C$MM FY17e FY18e FY19e
Block 14 (Sudan) 9.0% 70% $140 $0.59 $0.75 $0.79
Other exploration $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
OPERATING ASSETS $140 $0.59 $0.75 $0.79
Cote d'Ivoire properties $4 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Working Capital $10 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03
LT Debt (corporate only) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
CORPORATE ASSETS $14 $0.08 $0.07 $0.07
NET ASSET VALUE $154 $0.66 $0.82 $0.86
Source: Beacon Securities estimates
In Fig. 3 we provide forward-looking NAV/sh estimates to show how the
company’s NAV is forecast to change over the next few years. For junior
gold producers (gold production <250Koz/yr), we employ a target range
of 0.50x-1.50x P/NAV. Using a target P/NAV multiple of 0.8x on our 2017
NAV estimate suggests a fair value of $0.55/sh for Orca Gold.
On a forward-looking P/CF multiple analysis basis, we forecast Orca could
achieve average CFPS of US$0.26/sh in its first year of production (2020).
Discounting back to the present (at 20% per annum) suggests $0.15/sh.
Applying our target multiple of 8.0x P/CF to this estimate, which is towards
the middle of our 5.0x-15.0x target range for junior gold producers,
suggests a fair value of $1.25/sh.
On an adjusted market capitalization per total resource ounce basis
(AMC or EV/oz), we see that Orca Gold trades at a significant discount to
the peer group of non-producing golds with deposits of a similar grade.
February 6, 2017 Page | 4 Michael Curran| 416.507.3950 | [email protected]
Orca Gold Inc.
Fig 4 AMC/oz For Similar Grade Non-Producers
(M+I) (M+I+I)
Share Shares Market Measured Total Gold AMC/ AMC/
Sym- Price O/S Cap AMC Indicated Resource Grade M+I oz M+I+I oz Area of
Company Exch C$/sh M US$M US$M 000oz 000oz g/t US$/oz US$/oz Major Exploration
Amarillo Gold AGC-V $0.41 80 $25 $25 1,210 1,498 1.62 21 17 Brazil
Atlantic Gold AGB-V $0.97 168 $125 $126 1,158 2,198 1.54 109 57 Nova Scotia
California Gold Mining CGM-V $0.47 32 $12 $12 515 879 1.60 23 13 California
Columbus Gold CGT-T $0.87 143 $96 $89 1,885 2,965 1.49 47 30 French Guyana
Falco Resources FPC-V $0.95 147 $107 $61 4,563 5,616 1.54 13 11 Quebec
Midas Gold Corp. MAX-T $0.90 180 $125 $99 5,464 6,530 1.58 18 15 Idaho
Sarama Resources SWA-V $0.19 121 $18 $17 282 1,202 1.83 59 14 Burkina Faso
Treasury Metals TML-T $0.63 103 $50 $54 1,111 1,441 1.98 49 37 Ontario
West African Resources WAF-V $0.30 409 $94 $79 983 2,026 1.25 81 39 Burkina Faso
Mean 47 26
Orca Gold ORG-V $0.42 113 $37 $27 1,599 2,240 1.78 17 12 Sudan
Orca Gold - 70% of resource ORG-V $0.42 113 $37 $27 1,119 1,568 1.78 24 17 Sudan
Source: Company reports and Thompson Reuters Eikon data
Using a 50/50 blend of fair values generated by NAV and CF analysis,
generates our 12-month target price of $0.90 per ORG share.
Fig 5 Property Location Map: Cote d’Ivoire
Source: Company reports
February 6, 2017 Page | 5 Michael Curran| 416.507.3950 | [email protected]
Orca Gold Inc.
Appendix: Summary Financials
Orca Gold Inc. Beacon Securities Limited
Symbol ORG-V Share Price $0.46
Stock Rating BUY Shares O/S (MM) 113.3
Price Target $0.90 Mkt Cap ($MM) 52Michael Curran, CFA (416) 507-3950
INCOME STATEMENT FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e RATIO ANALYSIS FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e
Revenues C$MM - - - - Dividends Per Share $/sh - - - -
Operating Costs C$MM - - - - Dividend Yield % - - - -
EBITDA C$MM (10.4) (10.5) (6.0) (6.0) LT Debt/(Total Capital) % - - - -
DD&A C$MM - - - - EV/EBITDA x - - - -
EBIT C$MM (10.4) (10.5) (6.0) (6.0) PRICES/EXCHANGE RATES FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e
Interest Expense C$MM (0.5) (0.2) 0.8 - Gold Price US$/oz $1,166 $1,250 $1,300 $1,300
EBT C$MM (9.5) (9.3) (5.8) (5.0) Realized Gold Price US$/oz - - - -
Taxes/Recovery C$MM - - - - Silver Price US$/oz $15.38 $17.50 $18.00 $19.00
Net Income (reported) C$MM (9.9) (10.3) (6.8) (6.0) Realized Silver Price US$/oz - - - -
Non-Recurring Items/Other C$MM 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 US$:C$ 1.28 1.33 1.30 1.27
Net Income (operating) C$MM (9.5) (9.3) (5.8) (5.0) MINE/EQUITY PRODUCTION FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e
Shares o/s (wgt avg.) MM 107.4 107.5 140.0 200.0 Gold Production 000 oz - - - -
EPS (operating) $/sh ($0.09) ($0.09) ($0.04) ($0.03) Total Cash Costs US$/oz - - - -
P/E Multiple x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) US$/oz - - - -
Cash Flow (operating) C$MM (9.5) (9.3) (5.8) (5.0) Total incl. Cash Costs + royalties AISC incl. sustex, exploration, corpG&A
CFPS $/sh ($0.09) ($0.09) ($0.04) ($0.03)
P/CF Multiple x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
SCFP
Cash Flow from Operations
Net Income C$MM (9.9) (10.3) (6.8) (6.0)
DD&A C$MM 0.5 - - -
Deferred Taxes C$MM - - - -
Other C$MM 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.0
Changes in Working Capital C$MM (0.9) 0.8 - -
(10.0) (8.3) (5.8) (5.0)
Cash Flow From Investing
Capital Expenditure (net) C$MM (4.7) - (5.0) (50.0)
Acquis./Investments C$MM - 2.7 - -
Other C$MM - - - -
(4.7) 2.7 (5.0) (50.0)
Cash Flow From Financing
Equity Issues (net of costs) C$MM - 2.0 15.0 75.0
Net Borrowings C$MM - - - -
Dividends Paid & Other C$MM - - - - RESERVES / RESOURCES
- 2.0 15.0 75.0 Reserves MMoz -
Net Inc/Dec (incl FX) C$MM (14.7) (3.6) 4.2 20.0 AMC/oz* US$/oz -
Cash at End of Year C$MM 10.0 6.4 10.6 30.6 Total Resources MMoz 2.2
BALANCE SHEET AMC/oz** US$/oz 14
Cash & Equivalents C$MM 10.0 6.4 10.6 30.6 * AMC = Adjusted Market Capitalization = Market Cap + LT Debt - working cap
Total Current Assets C$MM 17.9 11.9 16.1 36.1 ** Total Resources include measured, indicated, and inferred
PP&E & Mining Interests C$MM 5.2 5.5 10.5 60.5 ESTIMATED NET ASSET VALUE (NAV)/SHARE - 2017
Other C$MM - - - - Status Own'ship $MM $/Sh %NAV
Total Assets C$MM 23.1 17.4 26.6 96.6 Block 14 devo. 100% $140 $0.59 93%
Current Liabilities C$MM 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other $0 $0.00 0%
Long Term Debt C$MM - - - - Total Operating $140 $0.59
Other LT Liabilities C$MM - - - - Working capital $10 $0.04 7%
Total Liabilities C$MM 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 LT Debt $0 $0.00 0%
S/Holder Equity C$MM 21.9 15.4 24.6 94.6 NAV $150 $0.63
Total Liab. & S/Holder Equity C$MM 23.1 17.4 26.6 96.6 Current P/NAV 0.7x
Working Capital C$MM 16.7 9.9 14.1 34.1 Source: Company reports, Beacon estimates
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
0
50
100
150
200
2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Gold Prod'n (000oz) Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Beacon Securities Ltd.| 66 Wellington Street West Suite 4050, Toronto, Ontario, M5K 1H1 |416.643.3830 |www.beaconsecurities.ca
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As at January 31, 2017 # Stocks Distribution
Buy 70 81% Buy Total 12-month return expected to be >15%
Speculat ive BUY 8 9% Speculat ive Buy Potential total 12-month return is high (>15%) but given elevated risk, investment could result in a material loss
Hold 3 3% Hold Total 12-month return expected to be between 0% and 15%
Sell 0 0% Sell Total 12-month return expected to be negative
Under Review 5 6% Under Review No current rat ing/target
Tender 0 0% Tender Clients are advised to tender their shares to takeover bid or similar offer
Total 86 100%
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