By Alexander Reichert, Robert Miller, and Sean Wasserman

For the Love of the Game?

Overview

• Do today’s baseball players play for the love of the game or for the money?– Do players in the last year of their contract significantly outperform the average performance in the previous three years on a 162 game basis?

– What effect does a change in a players efficiency rating in the last year of their contract have on their salary the following year, in a new contract?

Choosing the Sample

Criteria•Top Earners in 2008•Granted Free Agency•Played in the League Three Years Prior

•Non-pitchers

Data Collection• All of our data was collected from Baseball-Reference.com• We selected 5 statistical categories for each player that

we deemed represented offensive performance (Hits, Home Runs, RBIs, Strike Outs, and Total Bases)

• We then projected those statistics to a per 162 game basis so we could compare players evenly between the years

• To provide additional variables, our group gathered three binary data points:

• Whether the player was born outside the US • Married• Attended College

Seasons H HR RBI SO TB

1997-1999 200 40 120 124 364

2000 192 45 144 130 368

Our Highlighted Sluggers

Adrian Beltre

JD Drew

Seasons H HR RBI SO TB %(+/-) H %(+/-) HR %(+/- ) RBI %(+/-) SO %(+/-) TB %(+/-) Total PR %(+/-) PR

2001-2003 150 21 79 103 250 39% 138% 59% 13% 56% 305% 70.05 79%2004 208 50 126 90 390 125.10

Seasons H HR RBI SO TB %(+/-) H %(+/-) HR %(+/- ) RBI %(+/-) SO %(+/-) TB %(+/-) Total PR %(+/-) PR

2001-2003 146 28 81 107 263 21% 25% 28% -19% 25% 81% 73.65 27%2004 177 35 104 127 330 93.25

Player Efficiency Rating• Through in depth analysis of our baseball related

statistics, coupled with a formula found on ESPN.com which measures and ranks quality of player, we were able to create a Player Efficiency Rating. This allowed us to weight our statistics to quantify our selected player’s efficiency

• Hits = .15• Home Runs = .3• RBI = .15• Strike Outs = (-).2• Total Bases = .2

Regression Analysis: PER

Entire Sample Under 30 Sample

Regression StatisticsR Square 0.277

F Significance FRegression 3.739 0.011

Coefficients t Stat P-valueIntercept 90.786 16.040 0.000Contract Year 9.059 1.997 0.053B.O. USA 12.951 2.047 0.047Married -15.490 -3.004 0.005College 7.543 1.208 0.234

Regression StatisticsR Square 0.326

F Significance FRegression 2.540 0.070

Coefficients t Stat P-valueIntercept 93.001 10.894 0.000Contract Year 14.323 2.297 0.032B.O. USA 5.486 0.522 0.607Married -14.891 -1.935 0.067College 2.491 0.222 0.827

Regression Analysis: SalaryEntire Sample

Regression StatisticsR Square 0.391

F Significance FRegression 5.790 0.011

Coefficients t Stat P-valueIntercept -1.252 -0.943 0.358PR in Contract Yr. 0.019 1.360 0.191%(+/-) PR 2.316 2.007 0.0600.059

Conclusion of Analysis

It’s all about the

Benjamins!

It’s for the

love.

No Babe