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Carlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas GarcíaCarlos Rodríguez Otero, Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández, Isidro Salas García

CUBA, 2001CUBA, 2001

Given at Given at

Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Open Meeting Of The Global Environmental Change Research Community Rio De Janeiro Research Community Rio De Janeiro

6-8 October, 2001 6-8 October, 2001

TO PROPOSE MEASURES OF ADAPTATION THAT CONSTITUTE AN IMPORTANT TOOL FOR TERRITORIAL CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF THE COASTAL ZONES IN THE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF PHYSICAL PLANNING: NATIONAL, PROVINCIAL, MUNICIPAL AND URBAN FOR SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TIMES

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVESTO STUDY THE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ELEMENTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES CONSIDERING CONCENTRATED AND DISPERSE POPULATION, FOREST AND CROP AREAS, AND OTHER ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

Area 110 861 kmArea 110 861 km22

4 000 keys4 000 keys6 000 km6 000 kmof of coastscoasts

GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATIONGEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION

NATURAL AND ANTHROPICS IMPACTS ON NATURAL AND ANTHROPICS IMPACTS ON COASTAL ECOSYSTEMSCOASTAL ECOSYSTEMS

HUMANHUMANACTIVITIESACTIVITIES

CLIMATE CLIMATE VARIABILITYVARIABILITY

EXTREME EVENTSEXTREME EVENTS

DROUGHTDROUGHT FLOODFLOOD

CLIMATECLIMATECHANGE CHANGE

SEA- LEVEL RISESEA- LEVEL RISE

COASTAL ZONE DEFINITIONCOASTAL ZONE DEFINITION

width is varies

Research objective

Coastal characteristic

The area of contact between land and sea, is The area of contact between land and sea, is scarce, vulnerable and dynamic territory, where scarce, vulnerable and dynamic territory, where

natural, economic, demographic, social and natural, economic, demographic, social and environmental aspects come togetherenvironmental aspects come together

HIGH IMPACT SEA -LEVEL RISE

MEDIUM AND LOW IMPACT SEA- LEVEL RISE

1000 m

COASTAL ZONE DELIMITATIONCOASTAL ZONE DELIMITATION

SH

OR

EL

INE

12 000 m

1 m 5 m

0

SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGESCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE(CO(CO22 Duplication) Duplication)

• AN INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR 2100 WILL BE 1,6 - 2,5 0C

• CHANGES ON PRECIPITATIONS RATES OF 10 - 15 %

• SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF TROPYCAL CYCLONE AS NOWADAYS

• AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COLD FRONTS DUE TO OF ENSO EVENT

• EQUAL NUMBER OF SOUTHERN WINDS

• INCREASE OF DROUGHT PERIODS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN REGION

AVERAGE SEA- LEVEL RISE DURING THE LAST THREE DECADES

2.9 mm/year

SEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBASEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBA

sensibility low highyear 2050 8 cm 44cmyear 2100 20cm 95cm

Projection

1 meter

Recurrent Periods Storm Surges High (m)(cases/year) . Actual Forecasted

Scenario 1 m

1/100 3,7 3,81/50 2,2 2,31/20 0,7 0,91/10 0,5 0,7

Most Dangerous Sectors

STORM SURGES IN SELECTED SECTORS

Surges behavior will Surges behavior will increase only 4% in increase only 4% in

forecasted scenario 1 mforecasted scenario 1 m

STORM SURGESSTORM SURGES

Risk degree by sectors

RISK MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE RISK MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE FOR FOR COASTAL SECTORS OF CUBACOASTAL SECTORS OF CUBA

FREQUENCY, MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION

HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEMHUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBAIN CUBA

6834 TOTAL SETTLEMENTS

573 URBANS AND 6221 RURALS

1 MILLION INHABITANTS LIVE IN DISPERSED WAY

HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION

INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE

MAINLY DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITYMAINLY DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITY

DISPERSE POPULATION DISPERSE POPULATION (0,003 % of total), (0,003 % of total), 2974 INHABIT2974 INHABIT

TOTAL 244TOTAL 244

URBAN 62 URBAN 62 (11%of total)(11%of total) 1,3 1,3

MM INHABIT, 330 000 DWELLING, 12 citiesMM INHABIT, 330 000 DWELLING, 12 cities

RURAL 182 RURAL 182 (0,03 % of total), 52000 INHABIT, 18000 52000 INHABIT, 18000 DWELLING, 79 settlements with more than DWELLING, 79 settlements with more than 200 INHABIT 200 INHABIT

PopulationPopulation 1992 1 410 504 inhabit 1995 1 464 054 inhabit

COASTAL SETTLEMENTSCOASTAL SETTLEMENTS

244244 settlements / settlements / 1 400 0001 400 000 inhabit. / inhabit. / 330 000 000 dwellings dwellings COASTAL SETTLEMENTSCOASTAL SETTLEMENTS

COASTAL SETTLEMENTS LOCATED COASTAL SETTLEMENTS LOCATED TOTALLY OR PARTIALLY BETWEEN TOTALLY OR PARTIALLY BETWEEN

O AND 1 METERO AND 1 METER

98 SETTLEMENTS 50 000 INHABITANS 17 000

DWELLINGS

Urban 42 settlements

Rural 56 settlements

NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALNOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSFOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLYTROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY

NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALNOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTALSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSSETTLEMENTS REPORTING FLOODSFOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLYTROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY

VULNERABILITY FACTORSVULNERABILITY FACTORS

•Proximity to shoreline and coast typesProximity to shoreline and coast types•Settlement size and number of inhabitants Settlement size and number of inhabitants •Conditions and type constructive of dwellingsConditions and type constructive of dwellings•Accessibility Accessibility •Population and dwellings below 1 meter highPopulation and dwellings below 1 meter high•Economic base Economic base •Technical infrastructure Technical infrastructure

0

5 0

1 0 0

P O B L A C I O N A S E N T A M .

A C U E D .

A L C A N T .

E L E C T R .

A C C E S O

BUENA REGULAR MALA

URBANOS

RURALES

CWATER QUALITY LIDAD DEL AGUA

GOOD REGULAR BADPOPULATION SETTLEMENTS

AQUEDUC

SEWER

ELECTRICITY

ACCESSIBILITY

URBANOS

RURALS

0 50 100 150 200 250

1828

1932

1958

1999

ha 0 19 0 24 53.5 150 216

1828 1931 1932 1940 1958 1975 1999

ha

año DYNAMIC GROWTH

GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION

STUDY CASE: Santa Cruz del SurSTUDY CASE: Santa Cruz del Sur

TOPOGRAPHY PROFILE N-S OF THE LOCATION OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SURTOPOGRAPHY PROFILE N-S OF THE LOCATION OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR

VERY HIGH

HIGH

MODERATE

RISK GRADE

R I S K A F F E C T E DA R E A ( h a )

%

V E R Y H I G H

3 7

1 7 H I G H 7 8 3 6

M O D E R A T E 1 0 1 4 7

T O T A L

2 1 6

1 0 0

THE SURGE WHICH TOOK PLACE IN 1932, WAS OF 7 METERS HIGH. NOWADAY ITS PROBABILITY IS 1 TIME EVERY 333 YEARS

FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR

VULNERABLE ELEMENTSVULNERABLE ELEMENTSPOPULATION 17125 INHABIT, (9% BELOW 0,5 M)

DWELLINGS 4312 (GOOD AND REGULAR TECHNICAL STATE), EMPLOYMENTS 4123

3200 ha <1m

VULNERABLE CROPS IN COASTAL VULNERABLE CROPS IN COASTAL MUCICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea level riseMUCICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea level rise

FORESTS AND VULNERABLE GRASSES IN FORESTS AND VULNERABLE GRASSES IN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea- COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES Scenario 1m sea-

level riselevel rise

370000 ha <1m

7 DRY 7 DRY

9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT

Subzonas

Dry Subhumid

Annual precipitation <800mm <1000mmmonths of droughts 9-11 8-10evaporation 2000/2400mm >2400mmprec/evap. >60 >40

• 55% OF COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES55% OF COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES

• 132 OF 245 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS 132 OF 245 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS (MOSTLY RURAL)(MOSTLY RURAL)

• 990, 000 INHABITANTS (1995990, 000 INHABITANTS (1995) )

Dry

Subhumid

COASTAL ZONE WITH DRYCOASTAL ZONE WITH DRY ENVIROMENTENVIROMENT

• Prospective impact by climate change and Prospective impact by climate change and extreme events extreme events

• Commitments territorial precedent Commitments territorial precedent

• Sense of ownership of coastal population Sense of ownership of coastal population to area of residence to area of residence

• Potentialities for change in land usePotentialities for change in land use

• Cost of the measures proposals Cost of the measures proposals

CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

MEASURED MEASURED

PLANNING SCALESPLANNING SCALES

NATIONALNATIONAL

URBANURBAN

PROVINCIALPROVINCIAL

TOTAL 14TOTAL 14

MUNICIPALMUNICIPAL

TOTALTOTAL 169169

RECTOR OF TERRITORIAL AND RECTOR OF TERRITORIAL AND URBANS PLANNING TO DIFFERENT URBANS PLANNING TO DIFFERENT LEVELS AND TEMPORARY LEVELS AND TEMPORARY HORIZONTSHORIZONTS

COORDINATES THE INVESTMENTSCOORDINATES THE INVESTMENTS LOCALIZATION LOCALIZATION

INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND TERRITORIAL POLICIESTERRITORIAL POLICIES

PHYSICAL PLANNING PHYSICAL PLANNING ACTIVITYACTIVITY

COASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIESCOASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIES

1 174 738 INHAB1 174 738 INHAB83 % OF 83 % OF

TOTALTOTAL

COASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIESCOASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIES

107107

44% OF TOTAL44% OF TOTAL

URBAN 43

RURAL 64

50 000 BELOW 1 METER

52% REPORT FLOODS

ENGINEERING PROJECTSENGINEERING PROJECTS

REGULATIONS URBANS AND THE LAND USE, REGULATIONS URBANS AND THE LAND USE, BUILDING CODES AND SEVERAL LAWSBUILDING CODES AND SEVERAL LAWS

RETREAT ACCOMMODATION PROTECTION RETREAT ACCOMMODATION PROTECTION

STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATIONSTRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION

Mechanisms of execution Mechanisms of execution (administration and control) in the (administration and control) in the territorial planningterritorial planning

STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATIONSTRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION

P R I O R I T Y S E T T L E M E N T I N H A B I T A N

I 9 1 5 2 1 9

I I 9 1 6 7 0 9 5

I I I 3 0 3 7 2 9 4 2

I V 6 2 6 1 9 4 8 2

T O T A L 1 0 7 1 1 7 4 7 3 8

TWO LEVEL

TERRACES 1 METE R AND TWO LEVELS

“BARBACOAS” (LOFTS)

ACCOMMODATIONACCOMMODATION72 SETTLEMENTS

FLOOD MARK

RETREATRETREAT (Irene hurricane / October 1999)(Irene hurricane / October 1999)PLAYA ROSARIO

. Floods by south winds and surges of tropical cyclones. Shoreline retreatment a rate 3m/year

SOUTH COAST(5 (5 settlements)settlements)

SURGE EFFECT

•tons of rocks over the settlement

•25 destroyed dwellings

WETLAND AREA

Playa Rosario Playa Rosario Mitigation Proposal:Mitigation Proposal:

RetreatRetreat

INITIAL PROPOSAL

Decade 1970Bizarrón, 15 km

ACTUAL PROPOSAL

Year 2000

Juan Borrel, 5 km

Shoreline 2,5 km inhabitants 650

PROTECTIONPROTECTION 8 settlements 8 settlements

LOCAL REUBICATIONLOCAL REUBICATION 15 settlements15 settlements

NOT GROWTHNOT GROWTH 13 settlements13 settlements

• AREA AFFECTED 52 HAAREA AFFECTED 52 HA

• INFLUENCE AREA 183 HAINFLUENCE AREA 183 HA

• AFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABITAFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABIT

• DWELLINGS 12,041 DWELLINGS 12,041

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

•ADVANCED ENGINEERING PROJECTS •URBAN REGULATIONS

VULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITYVULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITY

COAST SUMMARYCOAST SUMMARY

About 250 km of coast has been urbanizedAbout 250 km of coast has been urbanized (industries, tourism, port, settlements) (industries, tourism, port, settlements)

There are 244 coastal settlements, 63 are urban There are 244 coastal settlements, 63 are urban and 181 are rural onesand 181 are rural ones

Coastal total population is 1.4 MM inhabitants Coastal total population is 1.4 MM inhabitants and represent a 13% of all population in theand represent a 13% of all population in the countrycountry

52 coastal settlements report floods52 coastal settlements report floods

50 000 inhabitants of 98 coastal settlements50 000 inhabitants of 98 coastal settlements live under a 1 meter highlive under a 1 meter high

Yearly, in Havana city, other 50 000 inhabitantsYearly, in Havana city, other 50 000 inhabitants exposed annually to coastal floodsexposed annually to coastal floods There isn´t significant disperse population inThere isn´t significant disperse population in the coastal zonethe coastal zone The areas of crops are not very vulnerable to The areas of crops are not very vulnerable to sea - level risesea - level rise The presence of natural forests is highly The presence of natural forests is highly significant, mainly mangrovessignificant, mainly mangroves 440 beaches (588 km) are affected440 beaches (588 km) are affected The eastern region of Cuba is the most affectedThe eastern region of Cuba is the most affected area by drought in the current and perspective area by drought in the current and perspective

107 coastal settlements require adaptation107 coastal settlements require adaptation and mitigation measuresand mitigation measures

GENERAL CONCLUSIONSGENERAL CONCLUSIONS

IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL SETTLEMENTS VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL SETTLEMENTS TO DESERTIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE TO DESERTIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTSBY CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS

TERRITORIAL AND URBAN PLANNING IN TERRITORIAL AND URBAN PLANNING IN CUBA IS THE RIGHT WAY TO FACE THE CUBA IS THE RIGHT WAY TO FACE THE ADAPTATION OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO ADAPTATION OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO THE GLOBAL CHANGES WITH THE POPULAR THE GLOBAL CHANGES WITH THE POPULAR PARTICIPATION.PARTICIPATION.

Carlos Rodríguez OteroCarlos Rodríguez Otero

Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández,Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández,

Instituto de Planificación Física Instituto de Planificación Física

La Habana, Cuba La Habana, Cuba Email : ipf ceniai.inf.cuEmail : ipf ceniai.inf.cu

Isidro Salas GarcíaIsidro Salas García

Instituto de MeteorologíaInstituto de Meteorología

La Habana, CubaLa Habana, Cuba

Email: meteoro ceniai.inf.cuEmail: meteoro ceniai.inf.cu