By Sam Moyo and Qondi Moyo

20th -22nd July 2015

AGRICUTURE AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN SSA:

PEASANT PATH?

1

Paper presented at the Consultative meeting on employment, structural transformation and

equitable economic development in Africa, Accra, Ghana. The authors are grateful to Steve Mberi

and Rangarirai Muchetu of the African Institute (AIAS) for their research assistance

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

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1.0 Introduction

2.0 Changing agrarian structures and persistent peasantries

3.0 Skewed agricultural production patterns

4.0 Disarticulated agrarian markets; de-agroindustrialisation

5.0 Impediments to agriculture based structural transformation

6.0 Conclusion: food sovereignty and state intervention

1.1: AGRARIAN CRISIS AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION?

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Economic growth with limited development: larger-scale employment;

new and diversified forms of accumulation; improved production

technologies; inclusive social well-being;

Persistent agrarian crisis:

food insecurity and malnutrition;

Low food crop and livestock productivity (volatile domestic supply);

exposure to volatile world food prices and supplies; food aid dependence;

Low labour productivity leading to low agrarian wages and family farm

incomes;

Persistent dependence on agricultural raw materials exports (poor terms

of trade) and increasing food imports (self-sufficiency?)

Limited inter-sectorial linkages and diversification of industry; shift

towards low wage informal sector;

1.2: WHY BLOCKED AGRARIAN TRANSITION: DEBATES

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Focus on low agricultural productivity: conventionally attributed to presumed weaknesses of pervasive family farming system and inherent obstacles to innovation; and economies of scale in production and marketing;

excessive state intervention in markets;

“mis-governance”, neopatrimonial forms of patronage, corruption and ‘rent-seeking’;

“Attract FDI”: presumed availability of 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, growing labour reserve, and expanding demand (middle class; urban) Large-scale land ‘acquisitions’ (or “grabs”) by foreign capital and

domestic actors from the mid 2000s;

Agribusiness (seeds, inputs and food markets)

1.3: LIMITS OF DOMINANT AGRARIAN TRANSFORMATION VISION

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• Perspectives omit policy induced systemic obstacles to agrarian

transformation;

• “The rise vision” sidelines family farming;

Increased domestic food production/supply to meet rise in demand, not prioritised;

Improving agrarian employment and incomes to fuel effective demand, also not

prioritised;

1.4: NEOLIBERAL AGRARIAN POLICY: KEY ELEMENTS

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Bretton Woods claim:

agro-industrial structures not competitive enough; focus on agricultural exports by building productive capacity of farmers to specialize in competitive traditional and non-traditional export crops;

Limit food grain production (self-sufficiency), import grain from countries with a ‘comparative advantage’ (food security);

Abandonment of capital, trade and investment control: no direction of capital towards positive structural change; Macro-economic policy regime reduced public transfers to agriculture, infant industries, and rural development; Agricultural marketing and price support, input subsidies abandoned; Reduced research and extension; Seed, fertilizers and agro-chemicals production by local industries (ISI agenda), privatised and closed down in favour of imports;

1.5 KEY EFFECTS OF AGRARIAN POLICIES ON AGRICULTURE

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Social welfare transfers replaced by narrow poverty and

livelihoods strategies: limited food and cash transfers;

Deflation of rural incomes and wages, lowered effective

demand (food and inputs);

Integration of LSCFs and better-off FFs into agribusiness

contracts;

Trade liberalisation and currency devaluations enabled

food imports;

2.0: AGRARIAN TRAJECTORY AND ACCUMULATION 2.1: TRIMODAL AGRARIAN STRUCTURES? INTERLINKED

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Farm type Reliance on hired

labor

Source of income Source of capital Marketing

Differentiated

peasantry

Few permanent

plus casual

workers; (family

labour)

Farm income, some

wages, and

remittances

Equity, some

formal finance

(contracts)

Self marketing;

contracts; farmers

associations

Small to medium

capitalist farmers

Over 2 permanent

and many casual

workers,

manager/supervisor

Farm Income,

business, and

employment

Formal finance,

Equity

Self marketing

(urban);

contract exports

Private and public

plantations

More permanent

and casuals;

managers

Farm income, agro-

industry

Share capital,

profits; loans

Vertically

integrated: (urban

and export markets)

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Over 1 million Family Farms in SSA (arable land 0.1/3 ha).

75% population engaged in FFs and related non-farm activity

Significant contribution to food supply/distribution (80%);

Over 600 million rural people derive main incomes, work and food from FFs;

25% or 239mn undernourished: limited food, cash transfers

Extreme rural poverty (400 million) links food insecurity, malnutrition, vulnerable lifestyles to unpredictable and low output.

2.2 PERSISTENCE OF DIFFERENTIATED PEASANTRY

2.3 POPULATION AND ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE IN AGRICULTURE SSA

10

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Pe

rso

ns

(100

0)

Total Population - Both sexes

Rural population

Total economically active population

Total economically active population in Agr

2.4: AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT

Labour not evenly spread between and within FFs and overtime (gender and generational inequities);

Seasonal flexibility of labour allocation structures wage-income diversification;

Labour diversification optimies under-employed labour resources, spreads risk;

Rural out-migration to low informal sector wages and unemployment;

Where productivity and returns are low, FF self-employment incomes are low; unremunerated labour;

FF labour and employment is undervalued by officials, but actual and potential employment capabilities are high;

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2.5: TOTAL LAND AREA PER CAPITA IN SSA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Are

a p

er

cap

ita

( H

a/p

ers

on

)

Land area per capita Agricultural area per capita Arable land per capita

12

2.6: ARABLE LAND AND CROPPED AREA PER CAPITA

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Are

a p

er

cap

ita

(ha/

pe

rso

n)

Arable land per capita

Cropped area per capita

13

2.7: GENDER INEQUITIES UNDERMINE FAMILY FARMING SYSTEM Customarily and statutorily defined patriarchal relations,

enable gender inequalities;

Women’s access to land depends on male family members

and clan authorities; land markets are inaccessible;

(matrilineal!)

Gender discrimination in decision-making, access to assets,

credit and technical support constrains productivity;

Gender division of labour is unequal (traction, labour hiring;

Reproductive labour unremunerated; (limited public

support);

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3.0: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TRENDS AND PRODUCTIVITY 3.1: GDP GROWTH AND AREA HARVESTED FOR CEREAL SSA

15

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GD

P %

ch

ang

e

Are

a h

arv

est

ed

(10

00 H

a)

Mil

lio

ns

Area harvested all cereals (Ha)

Gross domestic product, constant 2000 US$ prices

Linear (Gross domestic product, constant 2000 US$ prices)

3.2: QUANTITY OF MAIN FOOD CROP OUTPUT SSA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Qu

anti

ty (

ton

ne

s)

Mil

lio

ns

CerealsTotal

Roots and TubersTotal

PulsesTotal

Oilcrops Primary

Vegetables Primary

Fibre Crops Primary

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3.2B FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1960 1980 2000

Qu

anti

ty p

rod

uce

d p

.c.

(to

nn

es/

pe

rso

n)

Eastern Africa Food Production per capita

CerealsTotal

Roots and TubersTotal

PulsesTotal

Oilcrops Primary

Vegetables Primary

Fibre Crops Primary 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1960 1980 2000

Qu

anti

ty p

rod

uce

d p

.c.

(to

nn

es/

pe

rso

n)

Middle Africa Food Production per capita

CerealsTotal

Roots and TubersTotal

PulsesTotal

Oilcrops Primary

Vegetables Primary

Fibre Crops Primary

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1960 1980 2000

Qu

anti

ty p

rod

uce

d p

.c.

(to

nn

es/

per

son

)

Western Africa Food Production per capita

CerealsTotal

Roots and TubersTotal

PulsesTotal

Oilcrops Primary

Vegetables Primary

Fibre Crops Primary 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1960 1980 2000

Qu

anti

ty p

rod

uce

d p

.c.

(to

nn

es/p

erso

n)

Southern Africa Food Production per capita

CerealsTotal

Roots and TubersTotal

PulsesTotal

Oilcrops Primary

Vegetables Primary

Fibre Crops Primary

3.2C: FOOD CROP YIELDS

18

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

Ye

ild

Hg

/H

a

Years from 1961 - 2013

Total Cereal Yeild SSA

3.3 CASH CROP PRODUCTION SSA TOTAL

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3.3B CASH CROP YIELDS

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3.4: FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION AND AREA HARVESTED SSA

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Are

a h

arv

est

ed

all

cro

ps

(100

0 H

a)

Th

ou

san

ds

Fe

rtil

ize

r c

on

sum

pti

on

(to

nn

es)

Eastern Africa Total Fertilizersin tonnes

Middle Africa Total Fertilizers

Southern Africa Total Fertilizers

Western Africa Total Fertilizers

SSA Total Total Fertilizers (tonnes)

SSA Total Area harvested all crops (hectares)

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4.0 DISARTICULATED AGRARIAN MARKETS; DE-AGROINDUSTRIALISATION

4.1 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT COMMODITY PATH DEPENDENCE

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Commodity Total West Africa Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa

Cocoa, beans 20 10 5 3 2

Coffee, green 31 11 7 6 7

Cotton, lint 35 12 6 7 10

Cotton seed 35 12 6 7 10

Rubber, natural 11 6 5 0 0

Tea 19 1 4 6 8

Tobacco,

unmanufactured

34 11 7 6 10

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4.2 EXPORT CONCENTRATION RATIO BY REGION, 1995-2009

4.3 AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES 1960-2013

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4.4 IMPORT QUANTITY FOR MAIN FOODS SSA AGGREGATE

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4.4B PER CAPITA IMPORT VALUE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Imp

ort

val

ue

p.c

. (U

S$/

pe

rso

n)

Eastern Africa Import Value per capita

Middle Africa Import Value per capita

Southern Africa Import Value per capita

Western Africa Import Value per capita

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5.0: IMPEDIMENTS TO AGRICULTURE BASED STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 5.1 AGRICULTURE, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP) SSA

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5.1B: AGRICULTURE, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP) SSA

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5.2 AGRICULTURES AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

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5.3 TRANSFORMATION OF AGRIC VALUE ADDED AGAINST GDP SSA TOTAL

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5.4: TRANSFORMATION OF AGRIC. EMPLOYMENT AND GDP

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20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

% o

f to

tal

po

pu

lati

on

eco

no

mic

ally

act

ive

in

Ag

ric

ult

ure

Ru

ral

po

pu

lati

on

(%

of

tota

l)

GDP % change (in constant US$)

rural population (% of total)

% of total population active in Agric

Linear (rural population (% of total))

Linear (% of total population active in Agric)

6.0: CONCLUSION: VISION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRARIAN TRANSFORMATION

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Increased agricultural productivity to increase supply of diverse agricultural raw

materials and foods; support demand for farm inputs and implements produced

locally.

Harness and strengthen potentials of peasantry in agric. production and markets;

An appropriate mix of interventionist macro-economic and sectorial policies

aimed at promoting integrated and articulated diverse agro-industrial economy.

Shift trajectory of the land-extensive family farm production to intensive agro-

ecological sustainable land utilization system, prioritizing food sovereignty.

Subsidize, protect and support agricultural markets and agro-industries

Greater proportion of national resources to peasant path of agrarian reform.

Enhance regional cooperation for collective food sovereignty.

Annex 1: SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS Substantial public investments into productivity-enhancing

technologies, irrigation, accessible markets, rural infrastructure,

and social welfare

Leverage protected markets to serve food security and rural

development (expand public procurement for social transfers;

regulate food imports; incentives for SME’s in rural areas)

Equitable and decent (gender and generationally) labour

conditions; access to land and agricultural resources;

Integrated rural development and social protection systems,

Promoting economic diversification and rural-urban balances, and

the sustainability agro-ecosystem

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