by: yasmine fouad marwa mahgoub
DESCRIPTION
Faculty of Economics and Political Science Cairo University Euro med PHD Program 2010/2011. FROM HEADWATERS TRIBUTARIES TO INTERNATIONAL RIVER : observing adapting to climate change variability and change in Nile basin. By: Yasmine Fouad Marwa Mahgoub. Outline of the presentation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
FROM HEADWATERS TRIBUTARIES TO INTERNATIONAL RIVER:
observing adapting to climate change variability and change in Nile basin
By:Yasmine Fouad Marwa Mahgoub
Faculty of Economics and Political Science Cairo UniversityEuro med PHD Program
2010/2011
Outline of the presentation
Objective and scope of the study International level: Nile as a source of the study of
variability Contextualizing climate change including future analogues case studies
Ethiopia
Egypt NBI and climate adaptation conclusion
"if the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water -- unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource". Ismail Serageldin whilst World Bank Vice President, August 1995
“The main conflicts in Africa during the next 25 years could be over that most precious of commodities - water, as countries fight for access to scarce resources”
BBC News online, reporting on a UNDP report, 15 November 1999
Water Wars?
Objective of the Study
Selection of the Nile basin are explored in terms of adaptation to climate variability and change at the international and national levels.
International level: the international context of water management and allocation in the Nile basin.
National level:Egypt’s position as a down stream riparian and being water scarce.
Required adaptive actions( who is involved, magnitude and level)
International level
Nile as a source of variability
Literature review of the qualitative and quantitative studies of climate change and their main results ( 1994-2003) include :
Different Models of climate change to investigate the sensitivity of river flow and lake level to various evaporation scenarios
Those studies shared the same point of the uncertainties involved in predicting climate change and that the planning processes and hydrologic methodologies need to be improved to deal with this challenge
International river basins in Africa
Wolf et al. 1999
International river basins in Africa
Wolf et al. 1999
Drier 8 – 15 %
Wetter 8 – 15 %
Large uncertaintiesResults based on Milly et al. (2005) Nature
Runoff changes in 2050s
Slide adapted from one by D. Conway
The River Nile Basin
Multiple uses of river and lake water: Hydropower, irrigation agriculture, lake fisheries, industry, domestic, wetland agriculture, wildlife.
Contextualizing climate change
Need to understand the climate society interlinkages
Temperature
Magnitude and duration will differ than the past with increase in temperature
Rain fall
Interannual and interdecadal variability is large and climate
model is less consistent
Nile Delta – sea level rise What are the key
vulnerabilities to climate change in the Nile Basin? Egypt – long-term water security
Sudan - extreme events and food security
Ethiopia – food security
Lake Victoriabasin region – extreme events, hydropower generation
Slide: D. Conway
The River Nile basin institutions
Multi-lateral institutions: Basin wide: Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Hydromet survey, TECCONILE, Regional: East African Community / Lake Victoria Basin Commission.Kagera River Basin Organisation
Bilateral institutions: Permanent Joint Technical Committee
National institutionsMinistries of Water, Foreign Ministries, Nile Basin Discourse Forum
Nile Basin agreements
International: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (not ratified by Nile basin countries)
Basin-wide agreements: Cooperative Framework Agreement
(currently under negotiation)
Bilateral agreements, e.g. 1929 Egypt and GB (Sudan) 1959 Egypt and Sudan
Multilateral 1977, 1981 Kagera River Basin (Bu, Rw,
Tz, Ug) 2003 Lake Victoria protocol (Ky, Tz, Ug)
Current water allocation in the Nile Basin
Status quo: existing use based on 1959 agreement
1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan divides Nile flows between Sudan and Egypt
No water allocated to upper basin states
Rejected by other Nile Basin countries who call for a new agreement
66%22%
12%
Egypt = 55.5 bcm
Sudan = 18.5 bcm
evaporation = 10 bcm
Future water allocation in the Nile Basin
Current negotiations for a cooperative framework agreement under NBI
Multiple principles for deciding water allocation1. Avoiding significant harm
2. Equitable use - many possible criteria, e.g.:
• GDP
• Population in basin
• Area of country in basin
• Prior use
3. Benefit sharing
Egypt11.3%
Sudan28.2%
DRC26.4%
Rwanda0.3%
Kenya6.5% Uganda
2.7%
Ethiopia12.4%
Tanzania10.6%
Burundi0.3%
Eritrea1.3%
Population in Nile Basin by country
Case studies
1) Head water tributaries: adaptation in Ethiopian highlands and lake Victoria
2) Down stream riparian's : observing adaptation to climate change in Egypt
Ethiopia
Historical and contemporary evidence shows the problem of food security in Ethiopia explicit of climate change
Impact of climate variability on drought and food security in Ethiopia is unpredictable
Rural population in Ethiopia (around 80% of the population ) is all about coping
Current shift in water flows in lake Victoria levels an outflow is an excellent example for impact of climate change over water resources
Egypt
Climate variability is still a challenge for the available water resources especially with rapid growing population that makes this current surplus dwindling fast
Effects of the dry periods can be seen in the record of the Aswan high Dam ( AHD) where 1988 showed major water shortage and prepared country for future planning scenarios including institutional setups for modeling and forecasting of the upstream flow.( ABU Zeid and Hefny 1992)
The AHD buffers against the interannual variability but recent
decades highlight Egypt's vulnerability to inter decadal variability
Egypt
Literature clearly demonstrates that Egypt had wide spread awareness and recognition on water scarcity and the need to act for example Egypt’s water vision for the 21st century shows that it is moving from supply to integrated approach which includes both supply and demand management
Paradoxically, Egypt is engaged in a massive expansion policy for integrated agriculture in the western desert and sinai
Egypt also is working on largest pumping station for irrigation scheme for the western desert whilst there is shortage in the AHD
The MWRI has strong technical capacity in water management, but less
institutional and socio economic capacities on water demand management options and its linkage to climate change
Nile Basin Initiative and climate change adaptation
Climate change recently taken up as an issue Some projects may contribute to adaptation,
e.g.:
• Flood preparedness and early warning system
• Decision support system for water resources planning
NBI doesn’t address many unilateral water resource developments underway or planned in the basin
Conclusion Effect of climate variability on rain fall interdecadal will affect
Nile flow and consequently the water resources in Egypt Ethopia is embarking on basket of polices ( mainly adaptation)
to face food security through greater utilization of the Nile The increase in Egypt ‘s great demand system will reduce
Egypt’s flexibility to manage changes in future water supply climate adaptation is vital for meeting the challenge of water
scarcity There is a need to work on adaptation actions, its scale and
level of involvement of different stakeholders.
More research is needed on socio economic context of climate adaptation
There is a need to have more research on the scarcity issue as an opportunity to force cooperation between countries.
Thank you for your Kind attention