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Transportation
Power
Information & Communications
Health
Lighting
Services
Automation & Control
Dietmar Theis
Siemens AGCorporate TechnologyMünchen
Pictures of the Futureand Horizons2020 :
Developing scenarios for future technologies and food for thoughtabout future lifeworlds
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Outline
Pictures of the Future IPictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health
Pictures of the Future IIPictures of the Future IICross-sectional areas : Materials, Services
SummarySummaryWe need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020
IntroductionIntroduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge
Horizons2020 Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe
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Information andCommunications
Medical
Transportation
Automation and Control
Power
Lighting
4.2
13.7
12.0
7.6
18.6
16.8
External sales in billions of euros in fiscal year 2004/05 excluding Other Operations, Siemens Financial Services (SFS) and Siemens Real Estate (SRE)
Broad scope of business(6 business areas, 11 groups + SFS, SRE)
Global presence(in more than 190 countries)
13%
22%
27%
36%
462,0002%
€75.4 bn
12%
21%
33%
25%
13%
8%Asia-Pacific
The Americas
Europe(without Germany)
Germany
other countries
Sales
Siemens – Global Network of Innovation (1)
Employees
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… more than 50% for software(about 30,000 software engineers worldwide)
R&D expenditure in 2005: €5.2 billion (6.8% of sales) …
Source: Siemens AG, CD S MI – 11/05
R&D expenditures in billions of euros
Groups
Corporate Technology
Siemens – Global Network of Innovation (2)
1 USD = 0.78612 EUR1 Yen = 0.00734 EUR1 SEK = 0.10894 EUR1 KRW = 0.00076 EUR
Automationand Control
TransportationPower
Information and Communications
Lighting
others
Medical 19%
9% 21%
14%
30% 4%3%
95%
5%
Matsushita
BoschHitachi
Siemens
Nokia
IBM
SonySamsung
HPToshibaPhilips
GE
4.2
3.73.7
2.9
5.2
2.9
3.8
4.6
2.72.72.5
2.02.1
NECFujitsu
0.41.7
Dell
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“Prediction is hard, especially if it´s about the future”
Niels Bohr(1885 - 1962)Nobel laureate in physics
1922
“I am interested in the future, because that´s where I am going to spend the rest of my life”
George Burns(1896 - 1996)US actor
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Future designs
• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)
• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge)
• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends; expert knowledge)
• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures
• STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified options)
• COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative aspects of alternative future designs)
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• Description of a comprehensive scenario
• Identification of business opportunities and new functionalities
• Consideration of regional aspects
• Development of mid/long term roadmaps
year 0 + 4..7 y. + 10..15 y.
CurrentBusiness
Extrapolation
Market data Multi Generation
Product Planning Application &
technology roadmaps
Scenario development
Regional socio- economic scenarios
Concepts: products or services
New functionalities & technologies
Retropolation &Consolidation
Filtering & matching Development of
seamless roadmaps 2012-2020
Input for strategic support
Fit of both approaches
Influentialfactors
Resources
Politics
Economy
Technology
Environment
Society
Individuals
Pictures of the Future (PoF): Aims and Methodology
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Pictures of the Future (PoF) : Team and project structure for one segment
• Core team : 3…5 professionals of different background (engineering, science, economics, psychology, sociology…)
• Project team : supports core team for a limited time (project duration for redesign of a Picture of the Future in one business segment three to four months). Project team can cover up to 10..12 persons, including experts from operating divisions, from academia, from public administration and research institutes
• Project leader is member of core team and usually a senior expert in the field analysed
• PoF project teams derive their comprehensive scenarios from expert interviews, own studies and simulations as well as from numerous published external sources
Methodology for Horizons2020 (TNS Infratest)
Communication scenario with two distinct future designs
Life areas selected:The political arena (incl. media)Society (values, education,health, mobility..)The economy (labor market, corporate
sector..)The environment (awareness, food..)Technology (general development)
Definition of descriptors (metrics describing developments using pairs of terms)
116 Europ. experts selected critical (=follows different courses in development) descriptors and expressed their degree of optimism regarding the future
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"Pictures of the Future" and "Horizons 2020" complement each other in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future
5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 years
Customers SocietyMarkets Focus Individual
Technologies Values
Technology Planning Communication Business Opportunities Benefit Discussion
Communication Impulses
Corporate Technology Driver Corporate Communications
TransportationPower
HealthServices
Information &Communications
Automation &Control
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Outline
Pictures of the Future IPictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health
Pictures of the Future IIPictures of the Future IICross-sectional areas : Materials, Services
SummarySummaryWe need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020
IntroductionIntroduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge
Horizons2020 Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe
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: Detailed Description of AllRelevant Trends of Our Business Segments
Socio-economic trends
society life of work
Market trendssize / growthstructuregeographical
Customer / business trendsvalue chains / networkscompany structureprocesses
Technological trendsstrategic importancemultiple impactdisruptive
Transportation
Health
Power
Automation & Control
Information & Communications
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Picture of the FutureInformation and Communication
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Ad-hoc set-up and self-organization of services, devices and infrastructure
Embedded, programmable communication devices, appropriate displays and intelligent tags
Context awareness with respect to e.g. time, location, social environments, personal preferences, activities
Pervasive Computing Combines Situation Awareness with Ubiquitous Computing Power and Network Access
Smart labels and tags
2,50 V 80µA
Fibers for• Power• Electronic• Communication• MEMS
Body area networks and devices
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New Technologies are Emerging in the Areas of Nanotechnology, Biotechnology and New Materials
Further integration and miniaturization of computing devices through MEMS
Molecular electronics to improve storage and to develop bio-transistors, brain-machine interfaces, or new haptic interfaces and displays
Optical and quantum computing principles will lead to nearly unlimited bandwidths and massively parallel computing Single walled
nanotube
IBM millipede memory
Protein based memory
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Picture of the Future
Transportation
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Smart Traffic Management Increases Infrastructure Efficiency
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Specific Transportation Trends: Cost Reduction in Rail Operation Efficiency in Road Utilization
Gate-free, Electronic Fare Management systems
Automatic Passenger Counting solutions Automated, demand-oriented systems
for train operation
Advanced highway maintenance planning systems
Infrastructural systems to support collision avoidance
Smart, cost-efficient systems for traffic detection
Advanced planning and control systems for Traffic Management
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Patient-Centric Healthcare Patient-Centric Healthcare
Integrated Services Integrated Services
Theranostics Theranostics
Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies
Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies
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Personalized Healthcare Shift towards proactive, predictive medicine in the ambulatory/home setting
Patient-Centric Healthcare
Medicine will become more personalized
with greater patient-empowerment
Mobile Healthcare and Wearable Sensors Intelligent Personal Assistants Virtual Systems
Integrated Services
A globally integrated healthcare infrastructure
will change the business
Non-Traditional Care Settings Digital Infrastructure Outsourcing
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Molecular MedicineDiagnostics and Therapeutics at the Molecular Level
Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies
From providing reactive treatment after symptoms
appear to a proactive, predictive discipline that treats
and prevents disease before it occurs
Bio-Medical Knowledge Fusion Molecular Diagnostics Personalized Medicine
Theranostics
Medical imaging will complete its transformation from
a diagnostic tool to a key tool in delivering therapy
and tracking the progress of combatting disease
Computer-aided Diagnosis and Treatment Molecular Imaging Imaging for Drug Effectiveness
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Outline
Pictures of the Future IPictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health
Pictures of the Future IIPictures of the Future IICross-sectional areas : Materials, Services
SummarySummaryWe need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020
IntroductionIntroduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge
Horizons2020 Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe
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Impact of Materials
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Major technology driven trends:
Bio-engineering
Adaptronics
Interface between technology and living organisms is manageable
Bio-sensors make diagnostics fast and inexpensive
Embraces bio-logical materials, concepts and processes
Materials adapt to environmental conditions
Integrated sensors and actuators increase functionalities.
Consequent further development of mechatronics
Utilizes new effects, materials, processes
Relevance like microtechnology
Potential applications in all business areas of Siemens
Completely new technology for new applications
Nano-technology
Computatio-nal Materials
Science
CMS complements experimental methods
Multiscale Modeling will enable simulation of complex materials systems
Enables highly efficient materials development
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Services
Customer specific
e-services
Customer specific
e-services
Proactive services
Proactive services
Performanceorientated business
models
Performanceorientated business
models
Context centered services
Context centered services
Protection &securityservices
Protection &securityservices
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Service oriented product design
Advanced modelling and prediction
Automated diagnosis and decision support
IT-supported field service (e.g. augmented reality)
Technology supports MRO*
* Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul
Proactive ServicesAnticipating maintenance
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Self learning health
service systems with
remote diagnosis of
vital functions
Context based alarm
activation:
- During Jogging
elevated pulse rate is
ok, no alarm
- During sleeping period
elevated pulse rate
could mean danger –
alarm is activated
Context centered servicesSelf learning and personalised services
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Outline
Pictures of the Future IPictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health
Pictures of the Future IIPictures of the Future IICross-sectional areas : Materials, Services
SummarySummaryWe need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020
IntroductionIntroduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge
Horizons2020 Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe
... describes a development within the European tradition of relatively strong governments. Society in 2020 will place a high value on solidarity and permanence. It will also be willing to accept a lower level of economic growth – with all of the social consequences that this entails.
Szenario 1: „Equality, Freedom, Modesty"
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Scenario 1: „Equality, Freedom, Modesty“
• Predominance of the state• Attitude to life: less is more, conscious life, „de-accelaration“• Values: solidarity, sustainability• Society: flexible forms of living, „young aged“, more modesty, provision for the future• Work: high flexibility at relative security, frequent changes of jobs, lifelong learning, less work compression, good work-life balance• Economy: slow growth, strong influence of governments on infrastructure and innovation funding• Technology/Innovation: acceptance only after thorough checks• Consumption/Lifestyle: utility more important than brand or status, booming do-it-yourself shops
... outlines a very dynamic economic development. The driving forces are the market and global competition. Society is flexible, exhibiting a willingness to accept higher levels of individual responsibility and greater social risks.
Szenario 2: „Speed, Networking, Risk “
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Scenario 2: „Speed, Networking,Risk“
• Predominance of market and competition• Economy: strong driver of society, dynamic growth, permanent change and new chances, rapid conso- lidation of globalisation• Values: self realisation, personal responsibility, risk taking• Society: problem of „divide“, high social risks, but high social permeability, high importance of networks • Work: many „amorphous“ employment contracts, lower commitment to single employer, just-in-time-work• Lifestyle / awareness: speed, „always-on“, great experiences and consumption as values, brand names as important lifestyle elements • Technology/ Innovation: highly accepted, permanent innovation
Outline
Pictures of the Future IPictures of the Future I I & C, Transportation, Health
Pictures of the Future IIPictures of the Future IICross-sectional areas : Materials, Services
SummarySummaryWe need both, Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020
IntroductionIntroduction Siemens: Future is a fascinating challenge
Horizons2020 Horizons2020 Two scenarios for Europe
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Today´s and tomorrow´s global challenges require innovative solutions
increasing and aging population
limited resources
global competition
urbanisation
demand for security
climatechange
minimal invasive therapy
smart home /senior home
telemedicine / home based care
mobile business
low-emission drives
fuel cells
telematics
solid statelamps
virtual companies
human computercooperation
biometrics
securitysolutions
renewable energies
decentralized energy supply
powermanagement
hydrogen-basedeconomy
smart devices / applications
smart/ ad hoc networks
intelligentsensors & actuators
molecular medicine
global link
CO2- separation
waste water usage
intermodal transportation
ubiquitous Inform. & communications
knowledge based enterprise
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efficiencyenhancement
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ambient intelligence
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Today´s and tomorrow´s global challenges require innovative solutions
increasing and aging population
limited resources
global competition
urbanisation
demand for security
climatechange
minimal invasive therapy
smart home /senior home
telemedicine / home based care
mobile business
low-emission drives
fuel cells
telematics
solid statelamps
virtual companies
human computercooperation
biometrics
securitysolutions
renewable energies
decentralized energy supply
powermanagement
hydrogen-basedeconomy
smart devices / applications
smart/ adhoc networks
intelligentsensors & actuators
molecular medicine
global link
CO2- separation
waste water usage
intermodal transportation
ubiquitous Inform. & communications
knowledge based enterprise
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efficiencyenhancement
....
ambient intelligence
…. ….► Holistic thinking and approaches► Interdisciplinary research ► Global cooperations including
public research► Dialog between industry,
science, government and society► The speed will not only set by what is technically
feasible but also what is economically and socially affordable
► “There is no free lunch“► Europe has a good chance to set the trends if it
“strengthens it´s strengths” and “smoothes out it´s
weaknesses”
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Information & CommunicationsInformation & Communications
ServicesServices
EnergyEnergy Automation & ControlAutomation & Control
TransportationTransportation
HealthcareHealthcare
…the best way of predicting the future
is to invent and to shape it yourself !
Prediction of the future is very difficult, yet new
opportunities abundantly exist, and therefore…
Thank You !