c olorado: b attleground s tate in p residential y ear
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C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear. By Floyd Ciruli Data Sponsored by Economic Development Council of Colorado November 2007. Ciruli Associates Polls and Election Results Denver Bonds and Revenue Fund - 2007. Denver Voters Support the Package. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Ciruli Associates
Colorado: Battleground State in Presidential Year
By
Floyd Ciruli
Data Sponsored by
Economic Development Council of Colorado
November 2007
2Ciruli Associates
2007
1A Maintenance fund 71% 63%54%
1B Health bond 76 7161
1C Library bond 66 6360
1D Streets bond 82 7167
1E Parks bond 66 6161
1F Public buildings bond 64 5553
1G Cultural buildings bond 65 6155
1H BCH/DMNS bond 56 5652
1I Public safety bond 74 6863
Mean 68.9 63.258.4
Ciruli Associates Polls and Election Results
Denver Bonds and Revenue Fund - 2007
Sept. 10 Oct. 10 Nov. 6
Poll PollResults
Ciruli Associates 2007
Denver Voters Support the Package
3Ciruli Associates
2007
Saturday, Oct. 13 1st ballots arriveMonday, Oct. 22 6,976Monday, Oct. 29 25,132Monday, Nov. 5 65,478Tuesday, Nov. 6 93,684
Slow Return ofDenver Mail-back Election Ballots
Ballots ReturnedDate Cumulative
Ciruli Associates 2007
• 28,000 ballots arrive last 2 days
4Ciruli Associates
2007
Mood of Electorate
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007LA Times/Bloomberg, N1037, 2007
63%
27% 23%
66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Right Direction Wrong Track
Colorado U.S.
• Colorado voters - state optimism; National voters - national pessimism
Questions: Generally, would you say things in Colorado are going in the right direction or do you feel things here have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?
5Ciruli Associates
2007
Economic Slowdown
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
20%16%
47%
30% 29%
50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Better Same Worse
State U.S.
• National economy “getting worse”• Colorado mostly “the same”
Questions: How about the state economy over the next year, do you think the state economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same?
Thinking about the national economy over the next year, do you think the national economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same?
6Ciruli Associates
2007
Job Performance ofPresident and Governor
Rate the performance of Ritter…?
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
36%
58%
6%
71%
15% 14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Approve DisapproveDon't Know Approve DisapproveDon't Know
Voters
Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job President George W. Bush is doing? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado?
Bush Ritter
• 2006 approve Bush – 40%, Owens – 60%• U.S. Bush – 32%, Gallup, Nov. 2007
7Ciruli Associates
2007
Ritter and Partisan Approval
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
83%
5%12%
60%
24%16%
72%
14%21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Democrat Republican Unaffiliated
Approval Disapproval Don't Know
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado?
• In September, Ritter received considerable Republican and unaffiliated approval
Rate the performance of Ritter…?
8Ciruli Associates
2007
The Terminator Becomes the HulkPolitics and Businesses Go Green
Schwarzenegger – Time Magazine cover: “He’s become a global salesman for the war on carbon.”
Ritter – The Colorado Promise: “Lead Colorado toward self-sufficiency by promoting alternative energy, encouraging cleaner ways of extracting and using fossil fuels, and rewarding efficiency and conservation.”
Hickenlooper – Climate Action Panel and Plan: “Smart choices on energy use, grow economy, foster
environmental health, leave legacy of sustainability.”
Xcel – Second year on Dow Jones Sustainability Index for North America: Richard Kelly – “Commitment to environmental performance and social
responsibility.”
9Ciruli Associates
2007
Vote for U.S. SenateSchaffer vs. Udall
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
Question: U.S. Senator Wayne Allard has announced he will not seek re-election in 2008. There are currently two candidates who are running or considering running for the U.S. Senate. If you had to vote today for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Mark Udall, the Democrat, or Bob Schaffer, the Republican, or some other candidate? [Rotated]
35% 36%
9%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Schaffer Udall Other Don't Know
Voters
Who do you support…?
• October 2006 Ritter – 43%, Beauprez – 33%
Mark Udall
Bob Shaffer
10Ciruli Associates
2007
Udall and SchafferSupport Among Partisans
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
72%
6%
34%
3%
68%
19%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DemocratRepublicanUnaffiliated DemocratRepublicanUnaffiliated
Voters
Note: Aug. 15, 2007 registration: 998,897 Republicans, 860,407 Democrat and 967,853 unaffiliated
Udall Schaffer
Who do you support…?
• 135,000 more registered Republicans
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2007
Second Congressional District Money
1. Jared Polis
$828,0002. Joan Fitz Gerald
624,0003. Chris Lauzen (R)
546,000(Hastert)
4. Bill Foster (D)
541,000(Hastert)
5. Will Shafroth
509,000
• Colorado has Top Three Fundraisers in Country• Democrats 7 to 3 in Top 10
CQ, Nov. 2007
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2007
Hillary Clinton 29% 48%Barack Obama 23 21John Edwards 23 12Bill Richardson 5 2Dennis Kucinich 3 4Joe Biden 1 2Chris Dodd 1 1Don’t know 15 9
• Clinton: 52% favorable, 45% unfavorable, Gallup 2007
Colorado Presidential Politics
Who will you vote for…?
Ciruli Associates, Dem. N174, Rep. N212, 2007Gallup, Nov. 2007
Question: Colorado does not have a presidential primary. But if a (Republican/Democratic) primary for president were being held today in Colorado, as I read the following candidate names, please tell me who you would vote for? [Rotated]
Fred Thompson 27% 19%Rudy Giuliani 19 28John McCain 11 13Mitt Romney 8 12Tom Tancredo 7 2Mike Huckabee 5 10Ron Paul 1 5Don’t know 16 8
Democrat Colo. US Republican Colo. US
Hillary Clinton
Fred Thompson
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2007
Early States and Colorado
Population growth, 2% 6% 24% 10%2000-2006 to 3.0 mil to 1.3 mil to 2.5 mil to 4.7 mil
Growth in Hispanics 115,000 30,000 610,000 926,000
Membership in unions 11% 10% 15% 9%
Democratic Clinton Clinton Clinton ClintonFront-runner 1 pts Ahead 13 pts ahead 23 pts ahead 6 pts ahead
Republican Romney Romney Giuliani ThompsonFront-runner 2 pts ahead 14 pts ahead 8 pts ahead 8 pts ahead
NewIndicator Iowa Hampshire Nevada
Colorado
• Colorado compared to early primary/caucus states
Wall St. JournalU.S. CensusRCP, Nov. 2007Ciruli Associates 2007
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2007
Colorado Becomes More Competitive,But Still Republican Tilt
1980-1988 58% 56%Reagan/Bush I
1992-1996 41% 39%Bush I/Dole
2000-2004 52% 49%Bush II/Bush II
2008 ? ??
Colorado NationalRepublican Republican RepublicanCandidate Presidential Presidentialand Date Average Average
Almanac of American PoliticsCiruli Associates, N504, 2007
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2007
Top Issue for Governorand Legislature to Address
Question: What is the top issue you want the governor and state legislature to address? [Multiple answers]
Immigration 26% 28% 9%Health care price/accessibility 15 8 13Education/funding 11 20 4Transportation 7 6 --Economy 6 11 22Tax burdens 6 5 --Education reform 6 1 --Environment 4 4 1Growth 4 3 --War 4 -- 33Water shortage/supply 2 4 --
2007 2006 US
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006Gallup, Oct. 2007
• Immigration on top, health care moves second, war appears?
What is your top issue for governor and legislature…?
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2007
38%
44%53%
67%
68%77%
78%
80%89%92%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Low taxesHealth care for uninsured
Early childhood educationAvailable energy supplies
Enforce illegal immigration lawsQuality universities & colleges
Well-educated workforceGood highway system
Good K-12 systemDependable water supply
Very important
Important State Policies to Competefor Jobs and Maintain Strong Economy
Ciruli Associates, N504, June 2007
Question: Thinking about Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy, as I read the following list of public policy issues, please tell me if you believe the issue is very important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important to Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated]
Is it important Colorado has…?
• Water, education and transportation critical to jobs/economy
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2007
53%
36%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Harder Same Don't Know
Voters
Amending Colorado’s Constitution
Should it be harder to change the Constitution…?
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
Question: The Colorado Constitution is eight times as long as the U.S. Constitution. The Colorado Constitution is one of the easiest among the states to amend by the initiative process and only requires the same number of signatures as it does to pass a simple state statute by initiative. Some citizens believe it is too easy to change the Colorado Constitution and it should be harder to amend the state constitution. Others believe the rules to amend the state constitution are working and should not be made harder. Do you believe it should be harder to amend the Colorado Constitution or remain the same?
• Slim majority support making harder – 53%• Sample, wording and view of change
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2007
18% 28% 13% 23%
38% 27% 11% 12%
39% 32% 7% 7%
45% 31% 6% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Two elections
More signatures
Super majority
Percent from each
region
Oppose some Support someOppose definite Support definite
New Rules to Amend the Constitution
Should the rules be changed…?
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
Question: As I read the following list of ideas to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution than it is to approve a new state statute, please tell me if you definitely support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose it. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated]
• Should be regional representation
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2007
41%
51%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Support Oppose Don't Know
Voters
State TABOR “Time-Out”
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
Question: In 2005, there was a proposal on the ballot, Referendum C, that provided for a 5-year “time-out” for TABOR refunds. It allows the state to keep all the tax dollars it collects for five years. The money was pledged to be used for education, transportation and health care. There may be a future ballot initiative to extend the TABOR “time out” for five more years, or until 2015. As of today, would you support or oppose extending the TABOR “time out” and letting the state keep and spend all the revenue it collects for five more years until 2015?
Support a future “time-out”…?
• No urgency, no need identified
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2007
42%
43%
44%
44%
51%
56%
64%
75%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Bob Schaffer
George W. Bush
Mark Udall
Tom Tancredo
Wayne Allard
Ken Salazar
John Hickenlooper
Bill Ritter
Very and Somewhat Favorable
Colorado Political Leader Ratings
Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007
Question: Let me ask you your rating of local and national political leaders. As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so. [Rotated]
Rate the politician very or somewhat favorable…?
• Ritter and Hickenlooper dominate the landscape• State officials more popular than federal• Udall and Schaffer close