CRIME PREVENTION IN THE SOUTHERN RAIL CORRIDORAssociate Professor Trudi Cooper, Dr Paul Cozens and Dr Terry Love, Dr Frank Morgan and Dr Joe Clare

PURPOSE OF THE PROJECT

Project sponsored by the OCP Purpose to provide comprehensive, accurate,

timely, and useful information to support policy makers

To inform evidence-based decisions about strategy, service deployment and resource allocation for crime prevention along the Southern Rail Corridor.

FUTURES METHODOLOGY

‘Futures’ approaches uses different data gathering methods to anticipate emerging issues that will influence crime

Assumes successful crime prevention uses multiple strategies

Methods include environmental scanning; expert knowledge; situational crime prevention; and scenario planning

Enables preventative strategies to be put in place before problems becomes widespread

PREVIOUS WA RESEARCH

Builds on previous research by Crime Research Centre Household Survey Youth Rail Interagency Research project

CRC SURVEY FINDINGS

Modest but significantly lower rates of burglary along Southern Rail suburbs compared with other metropolitan suburbs.

Southern Rail suburbs reported higher levels of informal social control, fewer perceived social problems and greater eagerness to remain living in the local area.

INTERAGENCY YOUTH RAIL FINDINGS

Rail ticketing issues trigger incidents that escalate

Interagency cooperation creates opportunities for constructive intervention for intractable problems

Some young people use rail services to escape from difficult home circumstances.

Anticipated changes to young people’s venues due to accessibility of attractive locations (how soon?)

THINK TANKS

Two expert think tanks Think tank 1: Share local knowledge and

perceptions of issues: Think tank 2: Scenario planning: to anticipate

discontinuous situations with serious consequences and proactively mitigate worst potential consequence.

COMPLEMENTARY APPROACHES

Think Tank 1: identifies ‘near future’ issues predictable from existing expert knowledge. Assumes the immediate future will be similar to

the present; Provided a basis for think tank 2

Think Tank 2: identifies unpredictable (and potentially serious) events with implications for crime prevention; Assumes that sometimes events occur which

create sudden unpredictable social and community change

THINK TANK 1

Used environmental scanning Expert knowledge

(List)

THINK TANK 1: SOME ‘SINGLE ISSUES’ IDENTIFIED Night transport from rail nodes (bus or taxi

connections) Increased access to beaches / cafes/

nightspots – particularly Mandurah, Rockingham and Perth.

Toilet issues Leavers events: Will Mandurah attract

schoolies? Party accessibility (flash mobs, ‘swarming’,

etc) Seasonal problems? Summer, hot weather

SOME ‘SINGLE ISSUES’ IDENTIFIED Lack of finances/ transport home after clubs

close ‘Lock-ins’ create safety problems if people

miss trains Homelessness issues - no youth shelters.

(Experts mentioned not clear about connection with rail line)

Car parking issues, insufficient parking, feeder networks not good enough

Seniors use of gophers: insufficient parking and gophers are not permitted on trains.

SOME ‘SINGLE ISSUES’ IDENTIFIED Developments around stations to create

passive surveillance opportunities and new social hubs but not yet developed in some key locations, for example Kwinana

Existing relationships between agencies patchy (e.g. police, local government and rail security).

Prejudiced perceptions? Community expectation of increased crime?

Imported crime from other metropolitan corridors because of ease of travel

Facilitates mobility between low socio-economic areas and affluent areas

COMPOUND ISSUE 1: VISITING PERTH FOR ITS NIGHT LIFE

Travelling home after drinking, on a rail system with which provides no on-train toilet facilities and few on-station facilities after dark.

Being locked out on the streets in Perth between the last train at night and the first train in the morning.

Being unable to get home after using the train.

PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES: VISITING PERTH FOR NIGHT LIFE

Together, these imply a number of crime concerns including car theft, assaults, increased risk of victimisation and anti-social behaviour around station nodes and walking routes with no onward transport.

COMPOUND ISSUE 2: NO TRANSPORT FROM TRAIN

Transport to and from the rail line poor, poor integration between trains and buses/ taxis

Likely to increase incidence of crime and anti-social behaviour especially intoxicated individuals and groups at night.

For Mandurah and Rockingham, typical end-stage travel involves intoxicated visitors walking 1-3 km through residential suburbs

PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES: NO TRANSPORT FROM TRAIN

Associated with criminal and anti-social behaviour (noise, vandalism, litter, urination, graffiti, theft) as groups make their way home from the stations

Likelihood of crimes and antisocial behaviour associated with route from station to final destination

PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES: INCREASED CRIME DISTRIBUTION

Along station feeder routes Potentially provides easier access to crime

targets in the southern suburbs for criminals in the north and vice versa.

Ease of access is likely to redistribute crime Initially, constrained in southern suburbs by

lower population levels Development will change crime patterns

PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES: CRIME DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIL LINE

Vehicle break in and entry to parked cars at stations

Assaults, thefts, bullying around transport nodes when safe onward transport unavailable

Ticketing issues as triggers for other offences

Increase Increase efforteffort

Increase Increase riskrisk

Reduce Reduce rewardsrewards

Reduce Reduce provocationprovocationss

Remove Remove excusesexcuses

Target Target HardenHarden

Extend Extend guardianshiguardianshipp

Conceal targetConceal target Reduce frustration Reduce frustration and stressand stress

Set rulesSet rules

Control Control access to access to facilitiesfacilities

Assist natural Assist natural surveillancesurveillance

Remove Remove targetstargets

Avoid disputesAvoid disputes Post Post instructioninstructionss

Screen exitsScreen exits Reduce Reduce anonymityanonymity

Identify Identify propertyproperty

Reduce emotional Reduce emotional arousalarousal

Alert Alert consciencconsciencee

Deflect Deflect offendersoffenders

Utilise place Utilise place managersmanagers

Disrupt Disrupt marketsmarkets

Neutralise peer Neutralise peer pressurepressure

Assist Assist complianccompliancee

Control Control tools / tools / weaponsweapons

Strengthen Strengthen formal formal surveillancesurveillance

Deny benefitsDeny benefits Discourage Discourage imitationimitation

Control drugs Control drugs and and alcoholalcohol

SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION TECHNIQUES

Adapted from Cornish and Clarke (2003)

SUCCESSFUL SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION

The findings from Think Tank 1 suggest that several steps have already been taken in the planning stage for the Mandurah Perth Link

For example, station design already deploys many ‘passive’ crime prevention features including ‘target hardening’ ‘control of access to facilities’ ‘set rules’ ‘natural surveillance’ ‘formal surveillance’ etc.

SUGGESTED ADDITIONAL SITUATIONAL CRIME PREVENTION

Some ‘natural surveillance’ not yet in place, e.g. Kwinana

Other crime prevention should focus on steps to ‘reduce frustration’ and ‘assist compliance’. In particular Onward transport from station Monitor whether provision of toilet facilities

would be beneficial

THINK TANK 2

Scenario Planning: Expect the unexpected

SCENARIO PLANNING - OVERVIEW Scenario Planning: insight process for

policy makers to provide decision support to policy makers

Insight process differs from ‘research to prove outcomes’

Insights in planning for the future Timescale – over 10 years away Key features of scenarios: possible and

uncomfortable

SCENARIO PLANNING - PURPOSES

Help policy-makers to anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities

Insights support future decision making Supports pre-response planning of strategic

action

THINK TANK 2 SIMPLIFIED PLAN

1. Identify stakeholders, driving forces, and trends

2. Key uncertainties 3. Build alternative scenarios 4. Develop crime reduction strategies

SESSION 1: PRELIMINARY

Building scenarios for understanding crime in the Southern Rail corridor (10 years in future)

Identify:major stakeholdersdriving forcesbasic trends

SESSION 1: PRELIMINARY

Building scenarios for understanding crime in the Southern Rail corridor (10 years in future)

Identify:major stakeholdersdriving forcesbasic trends

EXAMPLE: STAKEHOLDERS

Stakeholders are anyone likely to have an interest in crime and crime prevention, e.g. Police Crime syndicates PTA Senior citizen groups etc…

EXAMPLE: DRIVING FORCES

Driving forces are circumstances that have the capacity to affect crime, for example: demographics, transport changes, employment location and opportunitieshousing locationtechnologyresource availabilitywealth distributionpolicy environment

EXAMPLE: TRENDS

Plausible trends are social changes that whose future changes are predictable, in the areas of social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA)

SESSION 2: KEY UNCERTAINTIES

Identify key uncertainties: Process Map driving forces on two axes:

uncertain/ predictable and important/unimportant

Select only important and unpredictable driving forces.

Identify extremes Check for unhappy powerful stakeholders or

not in preferred situation How will powerful stakeholders’ actions influence Is it possible to create probable scenarios only

considering the stakeholders?

EXAMPLE: TWO AXES

SESSION 3: SCENARIOS

Create 2-4 scenarios Based on important/unpredictable drivers

and powerful stakeholders seeking their preferred equilibrium

Focus on possible and uncomfortable scenarios

Where appropriate put all positive drivers in one scenario and all negative drivers in another (avoid best case and worst case)

Review scenarios – do they make sense?Characterise each scenario by a ‘catchy’

phrase

PROCESS

Choose unpredictable drivers and powerful stakeholders (from session 2)

Develop description of scenario (incorporate know trends)

Catchy Title Write up

SESSION 4: STRATEGIESExplore strategies to reduce crime For each scenario identify

The most likely effective strategies that match that scenario

The pathway from current strategies

THINK TANK 2: RESULTS

Three scenarios were developed List

BOOM AND DOOM Explored the consequences for crime of an

extended and accelerating boom and also of a sudden economic recession

Examined positive and negative social consequences of an extended rapid boom and of sudden recession

Concluded that an accelerated boom created adverse social conditions likely to increase crime and was not necessarily beneficial from a crime perspective

Suggested for crime prevention some attempts should be made to manage rate of economic growth and social consequences

THINK TANK 2: SUMMARY

Big picture response Allows people to question previous

assumptions about present and future Useful for long term proactive policy

development Participant evaluation was positive and

reported found the process useful

ANY QUESTIONS?

TO BE CONTINUED…

Thank You