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1. Breakout Appetizers

2. Trend Following Starters

3. Trading Sensations

4. Technical Main Course

5. Counter Trend Desserts

Topics covered in this chapter:

• Original ideas to build your trading methodologies.

• A huge variety of trade set-ups to build strategies upon.• Many trading edges rely on the details- get to know some of the finest nuances of from our contributors.• How to simplify and dissect the theory until now accumulated.

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C04 Chapter 04Trade Set-Ups

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The journey through the Learning Center has been long, and especially after the last two theoretical Chapters, we have chosen to prepare you a complete trading menu, replete with the most original trading recipes and the best ingredients.

Originally, the offer of our Education section was much simpler than the one we find today, especially in terms of technical scope and complexity. Nevertheless, an equal amount of care and attention was put into selecting the exposed topics. Since the beginning, FXstreet.com has worked with the best trading experts in the sector, sourced globally from all parts of the planet.

In this chapter we offer a sample of those educational webinars and articles that inspire the discourse of the Learning Center. Being able to offer a selection of some of the very best ideas and set-ups contained in our archives, without compromising each contributor's originality or what we think can be any essential ingredient for your trading, is a really stimulating challenge for our team.

Our objective is to convey all the technical and educational content in an organized and enthusiastic fashion. Far from deploying complete trading strategies, the following sections are a sample of the set-ups used by our contributors and those primary components that make their trading extraordinary.

What you are about to gain are incredibly effective set-ups; however, they must be used with common sense and geared with a certain amount of knowledge. If you haven't already studied the previous chapters we recommend you to do so.Take your time to watch the videos linked throughout the chapter, since without them the content is of much less educational value.

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1. Breakout Appetizers

Volatility Breakouts?

Volatility is a forward indicator and not a lagging indicator as most technical indicators are, in the sense that you have to wait for an event to occur before taking a position. Mark Whistler calculates volatility with the use of Bollinger Bands as they are, in fact, measurements of volatility and probability within a distribution.

This tool has the incredible capacity to indicate the total width of a distribution and gives us a probability of where the trading range will be. By their nature, the total width span of the Bollinger Bands increases when volatility starts to pick up. Because of this capacity to react to volatility and to be graphically shown when the distribution starts to expand, it can be considered a forward looking indicator. This is something that only few indicators do (Hichimoku Clouds are probably the only technical indicator that literally emerges ahead of price action). This means that you can estimate price level areas in the future by projecting the indicator a few candles to the right side of the chart.

We know from the study of Standard Deviations that 68% of the price action will be contained within the first standard deviation from the mean, 95% will be contained within the second deviation and 99,7% will be contained within the third deviation. This statistical data is immediately verified on the screen if you apply the Bollinger Bands to any price chart. This indicator has a particularity in which the distribution moves along with price because we have a movable mean. That movable mean is the Moving Average you can see in-between the outer bands. If you have the Bollinger Bands set to 50 periods, you get the movable distribution for the 50 periods - that is how it basically works.

The set-up herewith proposed consists of combining two different movable means: a shorter one, like a 14 period Bollinger Band, and another one set to 50 periods. Now you have a small subset distribution underneath a larger distribution.

The next step is keeping the third Standard Deviation for the shorter period and the second deviation for the larger period, so you get more intersections of both bands and subsequently also more crossovers between the bands. Ideally, the parameters should be 2,2 and 3,2 instead of just 2 and 3 deviations, and Mark explains why in his webinars.

By giving both distributions the correct distance we are able to identify volatility breakouts. When do these breakouts occur? They occur when short-term volatility compresses below the long-term volatility in times of lateral trading or consolidation. However, when the market starts to move again, short-term volatility spikes outside of the long-term volatility. These spikes are an early signal that the market will start to move. Remember, the market almost always gives the trader a first alert and second chance to enter. This technique is to be used to take profit of that.

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In the webinar “Simple Trading Strategies to Perceive and Defeat Forex Volatility through Traditional Indicators”, Mark Whistler invites you to learn about the very nature of technical indicators and explore its essence. Only by doing so, you can really understand them and use them differently from the crowd.

The principle here is to observe the expansion and contraction of the Bands as a signal that trending or consolidation is on the way. This is a vital component of any trading system, so you can well integrate this reading into your trading models or start to build a model from this principle. This works because in order for the price to start moving, the short-term volatility has inevitably to expand outside of the longer one.

In order to fine-tune a long entry, for example, you have to check on a lower time frame and wait for the same set-up to appear in order to get a better entry level and confirm the position. A good tactic is waiting for the first pullback to the mean, because if the trend is resuming then we know that the mean will continue to hold. Do you notice how we are just making use of the concepts so deeply studied in previous chapters? Great! Let's move on.

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Drilling Down Support and Resistance

This is an interesting approach that attributes an enormous importance to horizontal S&R levels and price action in general. It requires a certain experience in Japanese candlestick reading, which you can get from Chapter B04 - although it doesn't require you to know the names of the candle patterns - and it capitalizes on small parcels of larger moves in between important levels. It can be considered a breakout tactic, perhaps more trend following than counter trend, although it is very technical in its aspects and not biased as to what direction is the market going to move.

It consists in a top down approach, identifying price boxes from where price can break out. To identify a box means to delimit the range where price is currently trading on a particular time frame and mark it on the chart. Then the trader switches to a lower time frame and finds an “inside” range within the larger one, in order to draw a new box. Triffany Hammond's set-up will enable to capture a price breakout of the smaller box and profit form part of the move towards the border of the bigger box. Since the borders of each box are recent support and resistance levels, any movement between them can be at least partially captured.

This is an example of how a simple set-up can be used in any time frame combination provided there is a planning exercise done in advance. In words of Triffany Hammond:

“Whatever time frame you're trading you can put a plan. Even if you are a scalper, there is no reason to be impulsive about your trades and have no plan. Get to know what a pair is likely to do, and what a pair normally does. If you don't know, you need to go back and practice on that pair and get a better feel for it. And as soon as that pair is not behaving “normally”, walk

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away from it, go and find a pair that is. There is nothing wrong with that.”

Drilling down, Support and Resistance, is one out of a series of webinars held by Triffany Hammond where she helps traders to identify current trading opportunities based on Support and Resistance analysis.

A Logical Entry Process

Phil Newton's business consists in capturing a parcel of the main movement of the day. The profit potential is given by the average day's move for the last hundred days using the daily Average True Range indicator.Independently from the name of the pattern being formed on the chart and apart from main technical analysis theories, Phil's aim is to develop a logical process to arrange price action as displayed on a chart into manageable segments.

There is only three ways price can go: up, down, and sideways - the last one being the most forgotten. In his approach, Phil Newton developed a labeling of a price action sequence designed to read the current market direction and react to it instantly.

In this recorded webinar, Trading Strategy Essentials, Phil Newton introduces his methodology step by step and provides the keys to understand and profit the most from his regular webinars held at FXstreet.com.

The idea behind this technique is to allow the trader to enter the market without delay after a direction bias is confirmed by price action. If the trend has been down, thus making lower swing lows and lower swing highs in price, and suddenly prints a new higher high, this is the first signal alerting an eventual change of direction. If the next swing low is higher than the previous swing low and subsequently the next swing high is another higher high, the new market bias is objectively confirmed. At this stage, once the new

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market bias is confirmed the trader can enter the market when the last swing high is broken to the upside – assuming all the other conditions, if any, are favorable.

Until the market prints an opposite sequence of lower highs and lower lows and the last newest swing low breaks below the previous one, the direction is not considered to be changed and subsequently there is no condition to enter short.It's always the break of the last consecutive swing high or low that validates the direction once it is broken. If it is not broken and the price resumes in the previous direction, the whole pattern is voided. Until a new directional bias is established the previous bias stays in force.

The upwards sequence can start either by a higher swing high or higher swing low, and the downwards sequence can also start either by a lower swing low or lower swing high. Besides, the market may also develop a sideways move by printing swing highs and lows below and above the most recent ones.

This method alone can be turned into a profitable strategy, no matter what currency pair or time frame used. It's based on the most simple definition - and many times overlooked - of what a trend basically is: a sequence of higher lows and highs (in case of an uptrend) and vice versa during a downtrend. Phil goes obviously further than the mere definition and puts rules to capitalize on this recurring price action.

The picture above shows the first point in time when the price makes a bias change. As you can see on the chart, the entry is done on a breakout-pullback set-up. A short entry is set at least two pips below the most recent swing low, and a long entry at least two pips above the most recent swing high of the sequence. The stop loss goes past the event that makes us enter the trade, that is, the recent swing high/swing low sequence. Following the rule for stop placements, Phil developed a way to trail stops which is perhaps the most technical, price action sensitive way to trail stops. Watch the above video for more details!

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Yen Pairs Love the Ichimoku Cloud

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is one of those indicators you should have at least an understanding of because of its originality compared to Western technical indicators. It is advisable to use this tool in the long-term on daily and weekly charts, where it best displays a panoramic view of what is happening with a certain currency pair.

One great thing about the Ichimoku Clouds, for instance, is that it doesn't need any filters as it has them already incorporated. Another of its particularities is the clouds formed by the two moving averages projected 26 periods ahead in time: the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B. This is a unique feature which most indicators don't have, the fact that they appear on the right side of the chart always several periods ahead of price. The clouds work as excellent dynamic support and resistance levels, especially in Yen pairs. The reason for this is understandable since the origin of the indicator is Japanese.

A third singularity of the indicator is the Chikou Span, a line which tracks the price movement 26 time periods back on the chart, providing – together with the clouds - a lecture on how current price action will act in reaction to its recent memory. That's awesome, isn't it?

When price is inside the clouds it's said the market is ranging, and when it is above and below the clouds it's said to be trending up and down respectively. The signal the indicator generates is the crossover of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen lines. One of the clues Valeria Bednarik teaches is that signals near to those areas where the clouds are thinner or even crossover their lines are much vulnerable for price penetration and thus much more reliable entry signals. Although a crossover in the direction of the cloud is considered a weak signal, it's usually an early entry if the projected cloud for the next session is thin.

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The filtering process is done by the relative position of the Chikou Span line to past price action. This line will show more difficulty in crossing a congested region with up and down candlesticks than a row of unidirectional candlesticks.

If you tend to work better with visual elements of technical analysis, this indicator is definitely made for you. It goes without saying that a good knowledge of Japanese candlestick patterns is the ideal theoretical tandem. An exhaustive study is freely available Chapter B04 and dozens of case studies are to be find in the Practice B.

On Valeria Bednarik's author page, you will find several recorded webinars where she explains her set-ups and techniques.

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2. Trend Following Starters

Momentum Box Trade

The momentum box trade is a breakout type of set-up, using the Momentum and Average True Range indicators as proxies to volume indicators. Its premise says that once price consolidates it will not rest forever within the range - it has to break out sooner or later. The box is a visual representation of the price range, taking the recent high and low prices as its upper and bottom boundaries. Another box is drawn on the momentum indicator too, using its peaks.

Chris Capre's refined way to measure the breakout force involves comparing the indicators value of the candle prior to the breakout with those of the breakout candle. The comparison, made in terms of percentages, offers a very objective view of the quality of any breakout move.

The momentum indicator is set to 12 periods and ATR is set to the standard of 14 periods. The below EUR/USD 1H chart of November 20, 2009 illustrates that through an example:

Chris Capre begins the webinar titled Learning to Read Price Action by introducing his approach to price action, mentioning concepts like impulse and corrective moves you surely remember from the Elliott Wave Theory. He then proceeds to teach several personal tricks he uses to measure price

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action.

Another small nuance you get to understand with Chris is the effectiveness of measuring the candlewick length in terms of percentage in relation to the total candle length or consolidation range. This information redirects your attention to small candles that usually pass unnoticed. If a small candlestick's wick is 80% of the candle's range, it may be a very powerful indication as to whether the supply/demand equation is leaning towards.

Pullbacks with Candlesticks and Western Technical Analysis

The particularity of combining Eastern and Western technical analysis is that it provides a better understanding of how important confluences are. The concept of confluences is about multiple technical confirmations: when coinciding, technical indicators collectively reinforce each other. Any combination of two or more technical factors is always stronger than a single signal specially when two or more of them point in the same direction.

One important note to this topic is that the use of multiple indicators should not lead the trader to the many times mentioned peril of “paralysis by analysis”. If you detect a Hammer candlestick pattern on a strong demand area, let both indications reinforce and confirm each other. If, consecutively, there is a confirming signal from a technical indicator the win probability is definitely on your side. Here is an example of such a set-up, served right to your table:

The Western technical factors that, combined with Japanese candlesticks, provide the best signals are, accordingly to James Chen:

● Support and resistance levels

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● Dynamic trendlines● Fibonacci levels● Pivot Points● Chart formations (Double tops and bottoms, etc.)● Bollinger Bands● Oscillators

Waiting for a proper confluence to develop on whichever time frame you are accustomed to requires patience. But once all factors are aligned prices usually react to it impulsively providing very fast profit potentials. This phenomena happens all the time and it works, as mentioned in Chapter B01, as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

James Chen has thrown light into this subject in his webinar Combining Candlesticks with Western Technical Analysis. In this recording several daily charts are scanned with the help of support and resistance identifiers such as Moving Averages, chart formations, Fib levels, Pivot Points, Bollinger Bands and Oscillators. A special attention is put on long candlestick shadows as they warn us of potential turns of the market.

Fibonacci based Moving Averages

Raghee Horner simply calls them “the Wave”, the three 34 period Exponential Moving Averages: one on the high, one on the low, and one on the close prices. Why “34”? It's a Fibonacci number, of course. Hers is a very visual trading approach, and the three-wave element is the center of her analysis and the way she chooses the correct strategy for each type of market. Depending on the disposition of the wave lines she interprets the market as being in one of the 4 cycles: “mark up”, “mark down”, “accumulation”, and “distribution”. The psychological characteristics of each cycle are “greed”, “fear”, “boredom”, and “confusion”, respectively. And there is a set-up for each one of these market moods: trending following; trend reversal; momentum; or rangebound set-ups. This is done by interpreting the angle formed by the three EMAs relative to the price/time axis, in the way Charles Dow did.

The Waves are just a part of the Lasy Days Lines, a compendium of Fibonacci related Exponential Moving Averages (55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597) and the 200 Simple Moving Average. Raghee came to these lines when researching for a dynamic support and resistance tool that could indicate where the market is likely to find ceilings and floors,

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and also indicate the underlying market cycle. Put them on a chart and see for yourself how often price respects these levels and you will understand how powerful they can be.

Raghee explains that unless you take the time to do that across multiple pairs and multiple time frames you are not going to ever prove to yourself – to your eyes - the clarity of support and resistance they do provide. Another interesting statement she makes is that you have to absorb price action in order create that confidence to use a new tool. This statement inspired us to instill the price action basics early on in Chapter A04.

Psychological price levels formed at round numbers are also a key aspect of Raghee's trading and she will pay even more attention to such a level if one of the Lazy Lines is confluent with it. If you don't know what a technical confluence is, just check our previous “starter”.

Live Trading Set Ups with Chart Patterns and Market Cycle s , by Raghee Horner.

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Human Perception Gaps

How we succeed as traders depends on our ability to understand how human emotions will affect price action and know how we can take advantage of these opportunities. Electronic traders have to learn to detect them on the charts because they are not able to witness the emotional state of the other market participants like a floor trader would be able to do.

Mike Baghdady explains the workings of price action in a very illustrative fashion using terminology of the floor traders. You almost can hear them screaming out loud “Buy! Buy!” when price is at a momentum high. At levels of strong momentum, where a floor trader would witness the enthusiasm of the other players, it is where a bias usually occurs.

Directional bias turns when the majority of the participants has to make a trading decision. We know that each type of market participant, whether hedger or speculative trader, has a different conception of risk. Traders define their risk partly by using a stop, either by fixed money stops, technical stops, or time stops (see Chapter C03). The identification of risk, by understanding the nature of price action, is what gives us clues about those decision points.

These points are strategical stop or exit placements and signify a tremendous advantage, because they represent the highest imbalances of buyers and sellers, those moments when everyone on the floor was screaming “Buy!Buy!” and no one was selling. The astute trader identifies these price levels as levels where market participants make poor decisions, where they get caught in risky situations and where they have to pay to get out of them. All these human emotions manifest themselves in price movements and are therefore considered a source of opportunity for the successful trader. Human emotions and irrational thinking is what creates the repetitive pattern which can be identified.

The structure of the chart is given by those points where price reversed strongly: momentum highs and lows, as Mike calls them. When the price breaks out of an “acceptance zone” (a price range) through support or resistance, trend followers gain an edge because of a gap in human perception at the time of the breakout. This gives way to momentum, but the point here is that although momentum is what confirms the trend, it always precedes price.

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A loss of momentum, on the other side, is not a sign of trend reversal, it is merely a pause. The loss of momentum happens because buyers and sellers agree to the new established price range (“new equilibrium” or “new price acceptance zone”). They will continue to buy and sell within the range which is known as “backing and filling”, thus forming some of the known chart patterns like triangles, flags, or complex corrective waves (in Elliott terminology). The breakout in between equilibrium zones is what offers the traders the biggest profit potential.

At the momentum lows, if sellers are no longer willing to sell at the current price and they are demanding a higher price, and at the same time the buyers are willing to pay a higher price, prices will then move up. The inverse situation happens to the downside. The important point here, and this is one of the keys to understand Mike's argumentation, is that collective perception of prices will inevitably take a life of its own, an aspect deeply studied in Behavioral Finance (see Chapter B02).

How to manage risk using Price Behaviour analysis, by Mike Baghdady, is a webinar held after a series of four webinars dedicated to price action, where he introduces the listener to a new approach of price action - that of the electronic markets where trading computers scan the market in search for opportunities and liquidity at the speed of nanoseconds.

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You may be wondering what about those false breakouts and how you can see that a momentum high or low is a good level to stop and reverse. Accordingly to Mike Baghdady, price action will tell you the answer because if that level is a significant momentum high or low, then above and below there will be many clustered stops. What happens if these stops are hit? You got it: capitulation. And this happens in the form of a strong directional movement. That is all the evidence you need, says Mike. To protect the new position, the new stop goes past the old entry level and beyond the momentum high or low.

There is nothing like seeing it live, so we encourage you to take time to see Mike's recorded webinars.

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3. Trading Sensations

The Sunday Open Gap

Small gaps happen all the time in the Forex market, but the ones Sam Seiden capitalizes on are the bigger ones that mostly happen on the Sunday open. Some of them can be identified as “novice gaps”.

What is a novice gap? It is, for example, a gap up in price in the context of an uptrend into an area of supply (resistance). Think for a moment who is buying above the gap when price has already been shooting up for a while? Such a trading decision can only come from a novice trader. And who is sitting at the opening of the novice gap? The smart money, that is, the more experience traders. This is the reason why gaps most always get filled. If you understand the origin of the gap, as being the maximum expression of the demand/supply imbalance, you also understand why they most always get filled.

In order to capitalize on it you have to trade against the novice traders move: if they bought into a supply area, your are going to sell because that gap is probably going to get filled by those sell orders clustered at the resistance area. Conversely, if the novice sold at a demand level when price gaped to the downside, you can profit from the move when the gap gets filled to the upside.

A professional gap, in turn, is one that happens to the upside in the context of a downtrend, or to the downside in the context of an uptrend. This is what allows astute traders to sell rallies and buy dips in the market. While in the novice gap we want to fade the gap, when facing a professional gap we want to join the gap. You do it by entering in the direction of the main trend when the exchange rate penetrates the gap.

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To learn more about gaps visit Chapter A04 and Practice Chapter A to find plenty of examples to practice on.

There are different types of gaps in markets, that's why learning how to identify and handle them can be a key component in your trading. Why not specialize in trading just the Sunday opens in the Forex markets? Sam Seiden introduces you to the subject in the webinar Professional Gaps vs Novice Gaps in the Forex Markets.

Tracking The Institutional Order Flow

With volume and order flow unavailable in the FX market, the next closest relative indicator is price action which has the fingerprints of order flow. Chris Capre addresses several models to read price action and determine where the institutional money is pushing the market. Since retail traders can't move the exchange rates, they have to emulate the big traders. Independently from their originality or creativity in trading, successful retail traders are essentially good imitators.

With that being the case, one of the models Chris proposes is the identification of impulse moves. A characteristic of impulse moves it that it covers more pips in less time than corrective moves. Impulse moves are also characterized by having larger candles in whatever time period we look at. To identify in which direction the larger candles are pointing is not always evident, but they are usually faster and more violent than corrective ones.A second particularity of impulse moves is the emergence of several equal colored candles, that is, several bullish or bearish candles in a row.

Most of the time, impulse moves are followed by corrective moves and this sequencing is a characteristic of price action. In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, a corrective move is not necessarily a retracement. This is an important aspect to consider, and taking it into account can protect you from entering counter trend moves too soon. The techniques developed by Chris Capre can contribute to more objective reading of the market

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waves.

A corrective move is characterized by a more even distribution of bull and bear candles and also by the emergence of more wicks on the candle's extremes. In a corrective move, there is no clear difference between the amount of pips gained versus the amount of pips lost. This is Chris' second model of price action and order flow measuring.

Counting red and green candles for a certain period of time and measure how many pips the market went up and how many pips it went down gives you an idea of who was making money and who was not. In other words, it tells you where the institution order books were lining up. Remember: you want to emulate the ones who are making money, not going against them. Although this is something obvious when looking at a chart, without counting you don't have any measure of what was the comparative ratio of wins and losses. Sometimes you get a ratio close to 1:1 pointing to an equal number of bullish and bearish candles. Does it mean a lack of impulse moves? Not if the size of the bull candles has been 30% larger than the bear candles, for example. This gives you a quantitative measure of what you can expect to profit from a certain market.

In the webinar Learning to Read Price Action, by Chris Capre, you can not only learn the above measures but also the amazing way he structures chart formations with the time variable. This is a concept not seen elsewhere in the Learning Center and you should definitely have it on your arsenal if you trade with chart patterns.

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Another measurement model taught by Chris is the information given by the close price of a candlestick relative to the recent price range - which candles are closing towards the high or low within a consolidation range. If they close towards the lows of the range, that tells us there is no profit taking happening, which also means the order flow is staying involved in that particular candle and is being carried into the next candle. Otherwise there there would be wicks forming, and if that happens you want to assess the nature of the wicks too: how big they are and if they are consistent at a particular price level.

The “When” Is More Important Than The “What”

Derek Frey brings up the fact that there is a difference between “created indicators” and “discovered indicators”. The Gartley pattern is precisely a discovered one. There are some indicators used in the financial community which were not created to do price chart analysis, but rather discovered in the process of empirical research in other areas. As they are usually manifestations of natural conditions, they can be used very well to analyze markets since markets are complex organic systems. Markets are an extension of nature because it's an expression of human activity. People, as a group, are very predictive because they do the same things over and over again.

Derek alerts on the misunderstanding of the trading axiom “buy low and sell high”- which is, in fact, the very nature of retracements and range trading. Many people are doing just the opposite by buying when price has already moved up, which is usually called “trend following” but in reality it is just “buying high”.

The set-up herewith portrayed offers an accuracy of 70% reported by many people who use them. Besides Derek Frey, several of our contributors have reached the same results in their research and trading. Derek, for instance, has tested it on wheat price data going back 500 years, and this is the accuracy it proved to have! We recommend you to watch the webinar Market harmonics and Forex Trading by Derek Frey.

The most critical aspect of the Gartley is the B point retracement, which must be at a 0,618 ratio of the X-A leg. The B is the center (the heart) of the pattern. The Gartley pattern we know today is a more robust modification of the original one discovered in 1935, and the pattern is said to be still in progress. It was in the 90's when Larry

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Pesavento combined it with the Fibonacci ratios. The Gartley is a classic retracement pattern which offers a logical place to put a stop loss as well.

Also in the Gartley you can measure time by counting the candles. See how the distance between A-B and C-D is roughly the same in terms of price and time in most of the cases. An even better pattern structure is when the relation of time between those two legs conforms to a Fibonacci scale. In general, there should be more structure on the time side of the equation, not just on the price side. The entry is then at point D and the stop goes behind the X point. Targets can be the several Fibonacci retracements and the 161.8 extension of the C-D leg. These are the classic Gartley targets:

● 1st target is the 38,2% of the A-D leg● 2nd target is the 61,8 % of the A-D leg● 3rd target is the 1,618 extension of the A-D

Note the probability of hitting the first target is higher than hitting the second. By the same token, the third is the less probable target to be hit. For this reason, the G point is very good to trade by fragmenting your position and making use of trailing stops.The advantage of the Gartley over the conventional 1-2-3 pattern is that you have a lot more rules which structure the pattern. Those rules serve to guide you in protecting the stop, fine-tuning the entry and timing the entry.

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In this other webinar with Derek Frey, My Favorite Patterns To Trade, you get to know the complete rules of the Gartley pattern, a small experiment to illustrate the magic of the Fibonacci proportions and strategical rules to trade the Gartley pattern.

Top Down Assessment

Adam Rosen points out an often forgotten aspect in considering the time of the year and time of the day as a fist step to gauge market conditions. Secondly he lays out a specific method to scan the market in order to identify if a pair is trending or ranging.

What he shows in the below linked webinar is a simple process we may employ to look for short-term trade set-ups. When the market is caught in a range, usually traders start to expect a breakout. The problem is when the market keeps trading within the same boundaries and doesn't break out.

Just to be doubly sure, Adam Rosen uses the Average True Range indicator and searches for trends within the indicator. A downward sloping ATR is indicative of a market printing shorter candlesticks, which in turn is indicative of a corrective move or rangebound situation. He then addresses a specific set-up for this type of market after looking what pairs have the highest and lowest ATRs and are thus more likely to change from a ranging to a trending condition and vice-versa.

A declining ATR is also indicative of a declining volatility, meaning that you can capitalize on volatility explosions using the ATR, although it is a quite lagging indicator for volatility. Nonetheless, there is more potential for price breakouts with an increasing ATR than with a decreasing one. Doing this analysis on the daily time frame will help you to find out what currency pair is a candidate for intraday breakouts. The analysis is done in a top down fashion starting in daily charts until landing on the 5M chart for execution.

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When the ATR is not giving a clear picture of the market's conditions, there is a clever way around this: draw trendlines on the indicator the same way you would do it on a price chart, using swing lows and swing highs as the contact points of the lines. When the ATR breaks out a line, the market has changed conditions and may be in a trending mode again.

As for ranging conditions, when the ATR is declining and the chart shows price action clearly boxed within a range, you plug the Bollinger Bands and wait for price to break the upper band and close back below, and in a reverse situation, wait for a close above the lower band if price has just crossed it to the outside.

In the webinar Looking for day-trades, Adam Rosen introduces his intraday trading approach step-by-step. The ATR technique is just one of the few techniques he uses to spot the best pairs and profit opportunities.

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4. Technical Main Course

Harmonic Patterns with Oscillator Divergence

This is the so-called Butterfly pattern, also a Gartley variant. We could say it is the pattern which forms when the classical Gartley fails and the D point surpasses the X point. Attention: this is a highly lucrative reversal tactic not suited for trend followers.

When breaking down a chart, what you want to see is the psychology of the other players participating in the market. Although ultimately there are fundamental events and factors like interest rates, government policies, economical data, etc., prices move because of the beliefs people form about those events.

The Gartley pattern is meant to trap the traders who believe they are facing a 1-2-3 formation: they go long (in a bullish formation) after the price has resumed, above the B point, with stops allocated just below, precisely the area where price drops into before reaching higher highs.

Sunil Mangwani's idea is to trade down from A to B in a countertrend fashion, or to trade in the direction of X-A but only after point D has formed. The pattern is valid as long as point D is not below point X.

There are precise instructions to know if a reversal at A is low risk. One thing you can do is to measure the pattern with the Fibonacci ratios.Another effective tactic is to combine the Butterfly with a Stochastic Divergence. For example, when price is making higher highs on the way up between points B and C and the oscillator is printing lower highs.

This set-up requires you to identify the pattern while it is forming, not when it is completed. But to do that you have precise instructions delivered by Sunil Magnwani.There are other ways to enter trades based on harmonic patterns: notice how Sunil mentions some basic ideas about support and resistance pointing to the lessons of Sam Seiden. This is the kind of affinity you want to see from your educators!

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Harmonic Patterns, by Sunil Mangwani. Compare the above chart and the one on the video to see how well the trade was managed by reaching the first target to the pips, and protecting the rest of the position with the stop at break-even.

Trendlines on the RSI

The rules to trace a trendline on the indicator are the same as on the chart: at least two contact points are needed to establish the line. Oftentimes, the contact points in the indicator, being the highs and lows in its curvature, coincide with swing highs and lows in the price action. Nevertheless, it's worth mentioning that a trendline in the indicator is independent from a trendline on the chart. There is no need to have an identical line, with the same length and angle than the one on the chart to be able to trade a line based on the RSI, for instance.

The set-up introduced by S.A. Ghafari is to capitalize on breakouts in the indicator. These breakouts often anticipate those of the chart levels.

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In the webinar Catching Redfish off the pool: Trend Lines and Technical Indicators, S.A. Ghafari explains a lot of techniques to be used in trend following environments. The one we picked up here is just one of the many.

This versatile technique can be used as a filter, as a trigger or even as an exit signal. Either way you are adding a confirmation tool to your system by simply using the indicator creatively. In the example below you can see a signal from a moving average cross over, plus a break of a S&R level being confirmed with a break of an upward/downward sloping trendline on the RSI.

Lines can be drawn in other indicators such a the MACD, Momentum, CCI, and so forth. An important aspect to consider when placing the line is deciding with a certain anticipation in which direction we want to take the breakout. The most efficient way, although not imperative, is an RSI breakout caught when the main trend on the chart is down and the line on the RSI is upward sloping.

Triangles can be also drawn in the indicator line. The particularity of this set-up is that on the chart there is no triangular formation in sight, just an amorphous consolidation. That allows the trader to anticipate an eventual breakout.

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Pivot Point Nuances

Andrei Pehar regularly delights us with his “Institutional Trading Strategies” and “Fibonacci Friday” webinar series. But for us, the singularity of his teachings is the refined and elegant approach he shows when trading the Forex. All indicators on his price chart are meant as support and resistance levels, and each indicator has a precise role to accomplish. One of these indicators, the Pivot points, have long been a favorite of the biggest institutional players. For this reason it's of utmost importance to have them well calibrated and to be geared with a few guidelines on how to take the most profit out of them.

Price movements that start on a daily Pivot are likely to end at a daily Pivot, the same as one starting at a weekly Pivot is likely to end on a weekly one, and the same for monthlies. Movements between the median levels happen in a similar way, but in this case if a movement starts at, let's say, M1, it will mostly go to M3, thus skipping M2. And conversely, a movement that starts at M3 typically will go to M1.

For an intraday trading approach you may start by plotting the daily Pivot Points on the chart.

Andrei defines a profitable trade as an intersection of a diagonal line and an horizontal line in the same sense that an opportunity could be defined as the intersection of luck and preparedness. Now that you are more than familiarized with the concept of technical confluences, mentioned so many times along the Learning Center, it's also time to get the most from a trading approach as Andrei Pehar's.

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Just try to plot the Pivot Points on a chart and observe what happens to price at the intersections of the Pivots with other support and resistance indicators, such as moving averages or price envelopes. Your will be astonished.Another fine nuance on the idea of confluences and intersections is the protecting effect a clustering of several indicators can offer to any trader. Installing a rule to not enter any position if it is not protected by at least three clustered support or resistance levels on the chart is an enormous edge you can be thankful to have found.

The other big lesson, so simple and so many times overlooked, is the fact that most of the breakouts are false breakouts. For this reason a retest of a broken level is always a better guarantee the broken level will hold, and therefore a much better entry than on the breakout alone.These rules will not work 100% of the time, in fact nothing in trading does, but they will work far more times than they won't.

A very detailed description of Pivot Points by Andrei Pehar, how they are calculated, how to calibrate them to your time zone, why you should follow these calibrations, and how to work with them. As always, we strongly recommend to study all webinars given to any one of our contributors, to get acquainted with their tools and add a few more edges to your trading.

Calibrating Indicators with Fibonacci Ratios

There are some set-ups that feel more natural to you, those set-ups that you detect better than others. This is a point that many of our experts mention in their lessons and although it is difficult to fully understand at the beginning, it is one of those things that will become clearer and clearer with time.For example: you may develop a special feeling to identify flag patterns in very short time frames, where others just see noise. Or you may detect pullbacks to broken support and resistance levels while another person will better thrive at picking divergences.

There is one type of trades that you will be taken more often because your attention is focused on it. This is what leads you to gain experience in a certain type of set-up, the same way you specialize in a specific business. As a trader, you are not only going to trade for the sake of trading, you are going to build a business around a specific concept that you plan to capitalize on.

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Trapping the price is an interesting analogy used by Wayne McDonell, which means you are stalking the market by analyzing it, and you do it by knowing well your pair, your time frame, your market session, in a way that you are also able to put a trap for the price. If the price falls under the trap you have a trade, if not, just start your analysis again and set another trap based on the same observed principles. This is what Wayne calls being in control of your trading.

Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading (Part 1), by Wayne McDonell.

In order to gain a certain level of confidence, one of the things you may do is to experiment the parameters of the indicators. Numbers from the Fibonacci sequence can be used to calibrate technical indicators, for example: moving averages can be set at 3, 5, 8 or 13 periods. A combination of a 3 and 5 short moving averages is a good indicator for momentum: the steeper the angle is and the greater the separation between the moving averages the higher the momentum is. This is also a measure of confidence - if you know momentum is high and technical indicators confirm it, you will better trust your actions based on that evidence. Conversely, if you see the moving averages braiding then you know there is indecision in the market and momentum is weak.The good thing about short moving averages is that you can identify a quick turn upwards in a falling market or a quick dip in a rising market and react to the price action.

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Wayne uses a combination of moving averages calibrated to 21 and 55 periods (both Fibonacci numbers) to verify the speed of the market. Also his MACD set to 21, 55 and 8 combined with a stochastic 8, 3, 7 are an example of how indicators can be calibrated with other parameters than the standard ones and still be very effective.

It all depends on how you read the market and not what the indicator is telling you. Many aspiring traders expect the indicators to dictate them when to buy and sell, aiming to reduce the trading activity to a mere execution process, but this is far from reality. Your task is to read what the market is doing and your indicators choice and the parameters used are simply the tools to achieve that.

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5. Counter Trend Desserts

What is visible in the market must be true?!

Novice traders are often gripped by panic when the market moves against them and try to cut losses at extreme levels. When the market moves in their favor they also fail to book profit out of greed despite their good understanding of charts. As long as traders continue to act emotionally, market operators know well how to exploit their herd mentality in a systematic manner.

Risk aversion will alternate with risk appetite during the day and from session to session. If there is risk appetite from the part of the retail traders, then market makers will try to move the market in the opposite direction forcing traders to liquidate those long orders. Once liquidated, the market makers can easily move upwards with their orders filled at better prices.

As Dr. Sivaraman explains in one of his webinars:

“When the market rises one needs to understand why it is rising, the big players quickly rise to market to sell and book profit in their positions. Similarly they quickly drop the market to buy against their selling. Hence trading along with the big players may appear that one is trading against the market, but if there is a good understanding of the types of market moves the big players make, one can easily understand operators' intentions and trade at ease to make consistent profit.”

Dr. S. Sivaranan recommends to watch the market 30 minutes from the start of the session. If players drop the market below a recent low and the price doesn't stay there for more than 30 minutes, it means they were trying to find better levels to enter long positions. Once broken you keep watching the market: if this level is now tested again, then you enter in the direction of the trade.The breaking of recent lows and highs is a signal of opposite orders being filled at a better price. Depending on the time the rate spends beyond a broken level it will tell you what the intentions of the market players are.

Usually, if the net change in price for the session is negative, market makers will try to make contrarian moves to get their orders filled at the best average price. This is when you should enter short positions. Conversely, if the net change for the session is positive, market makers will do contrarian downward moves to find those sell orders at lower levels whom they can buy from at a good average price.

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The rules for this set-up are the following: take a sell position if a pair is near the high and doesn't break the high during thirty minutes of watching, or enter long if a pair is near the low during the same time. Keep a 30 pips stop loss or hedge the order (with an entry stop) to limit the risk. Once the position makes more than 20-30 pips profit, move the stop to break-even and remove the hedging order.

The gap time moves are “false” moves opposite to next session's moves. These are the sessions and its gap times:

• Japanese session 00:30 – 07:30 GMT

• Gap Time 07:30 – 08:00 GMT

• European Session 08:00 – 13:00 (08:00 – 14:00 daylight savings time)

• Gap Time 13:00 – 13:30 GMT (14:00 – 14:30 GMT)

• US Session 13:30 – 20:30 GMT (14:30 – 21:30 GMT)

• Gap Time 20:30 – 00:30 GMT (21:30 – 00:30 GMT)

The hedging set-up herewith mentioned is in fact a stop limit used as a measure to avoid nominal losses and not really an hedge. If your original position is in negative more than 30 pips, the hedge order, which refers to taking the opposite position in the same pair without offsetting the original position, will be triggered. Once the hedge order is in profit, you can move the stop to breakeven or close the order at a profit. Then turn back to your first position and try to reduce the risk by closing it at a small loss, break-even or even at a profit.

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In case your original position is in profit, you can remove the hedging order and move the stop to the entry position. From here on try to trail the stop depending on the momentum of the market. Use the distance between the recent high and low to measure your take profit. For example, if the distance is 45 pips, then aim to get 45 pips profit, if it is 75, take profit at 75 pips. Profits are booked within the same session.

In one of the Tracking the forex market together webinars given by Dr. S. Sivaraman, you will learn the core idea that you should never chase the market: buying during a quick rise or selling during a quick fall is a mistake. There are movements in price designed to trap the traders before market reversals.

Spotting the Novice Trader

Using conventional technical indicators with a deep knowledge of what happens behind the charts is what Sam Seiden teaches throughout his webinars. He doesn't focus so much on news or on interest rates, but rather in taking the other side of the novice traders' positions, those who usually lose.

The set-up we picked from Sam consists of a combination of his stellar teachings on the the market's supply and demand equation with technical indicators. It basically consists in selling when a break of the upper Bollinger Band is inside a strong supply area and viceversa. As a target you can set the opposite band or look at the left of the chart and find your nearest opposing support and resistance level. Entering positions simply buying when price pierces the lower band and selling when price pierces the upper band is simply not enough. It's by identifying the intersection with key support and resistance levels that you put the indicator to use. As you see, a lot of our contributors use the concept of intersection.For a second confirmation Sam suggests the use of the CCI and its overbought and oversold signals. See the below illustration for an example:

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When tracing the support and resistance area, put those recent candles (including their bodies) inside the zone because that is the zone where the recent selling or buying took place, and we want to place our order in the meat of that zone. Then you wait for someone to make the mistake of buying into a supply area, with prices crossing the upper band and CCI overbought. Conversely, you wait to buy when prices enter a demand (support) zone with prices piercing the lower Bollinger Band and CCI oversold, because at that moment we are buying from someone who is committing a strategical mistake accordingly to the laws of supply and demand: he or she is selling at a demand level. We just want to take the other side of the novice's trade - a low risk, high reward, and high probability trade.

Build a whole new picture of price charts learning how to find the low risk, high reward, and high probability trade with Sam Seiden in the webinar Rule Based Short Term Trading In Forex.

Build A Running Picture Of The COT

A running picture both of the open interest and the size of the positions in the different pairs is Joseph Trevisani's picked set-up.If it is axiomatic that the first position that begins a trend possesses the most potential profit, it is equally true that no trend continues forever. Taken together these statements

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might be the mindset of the contrarian trader.Contrarians base their indicators in the psychology and behavior of crowds.The classic contrarian indicator is the Commitment of Traders’ report published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that lists open positions of hedgers and speculators (refer to Chapter B02 for more information on the COT).

The drawback of the COT report, and in fact of contrarian ideas in general, is that it is a sentiment indicator, it provides a timing or specific buy and sell signals. When a market has been moving in one direction for considerable time, logic dictates there is a great degree of contrarian sentiment. Many traders will retain initial positions rather than take profit and reopen a new position within a trend. These older positions are a drag on trend continuation.

In practical application, contrarian indicators are an alert - or an early warning sign - of a potential shift in sentiment. Because they represent the psychology of the market they can presage great energy. When the overall psychology of a trend shifts, it often does it rapidly and with great volatility. The desire to secure profits can overwhelm a market, undoing 50 percent of a trend in a few days.

For the contrarian trader the most reliable indicator of a coming change in direction is the universal opinion that the current trend will continue. Markets are a widely observed phenomenon, and as recognition of the market direction spreads and more and more traders join the move, each pull back or correction becomes the opportunity for more profit seekers to join the trend. At some point market participants are satiated; there is no new influence to bear. If everyone whose analysis or intuition dictated a long position has taken his position then who is left to drive the market higher? The accumulated positions that make up a trend are all united by the simple desire to profit from those positions. That motive, more than any other, puts powerful internal limits on any move. The longer a trend has lasted the greater is the number and the weight of the accumulated positions, and the greater the desire of market participants to realize some of their acquired profits.

The higher the commitment (COT), the greater the strength of the contrary signal. If a market registers, for instance, the highest open long Euro interest on record and then the following week had the second highest, clearly this indicates a market ready to take profits. But the question remains, when is it the best moment to pull the trigger?

Sentiment indicators are weak on specifics, they do not provide price levels or timings, they are not technical in the sense that we can perform our analysis and commit to a trade based on that information.For this reason, in a webinar called “The Contrarian”, Joseph Trevisani goes on explaining that:

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"Any reasonable use of the COT report must be combined with technical analysis. The COT promises or hints at volatility. But more traditional analysis will provide the clues as to where the psychology will activate. A high COT number is generally a warning of a potential profit taking stops building opposite the trend.Any currency move is portrayed in the COT report in that the IMM traders always have speculative positions, it is the relative size of the positions that indicates the ripeness of the trend for profit taking or potential reversal."

The Contrarian, by Joseph Trevisani

The idea and set-up disclosed in the above webinar, is that the market clearly has to take profit on a long uptrend in order to move higher. In other words, it must correct before the next impulse develops. And as we know, any profit taken on a long trend will bring the exchange rate lower. The profit taking motive is but paramount: the trader wants to know why the market view has changed. Besides, remember that if the actual volume is small then the COT's value is diminished, as it could represent only the position of a relatively few number of traders. It is the relative volume that tells you the intensity of the move, therefore the open interest needs to represent the largest number of traders possible. You don't want the number to represent the positions of a few large traders only. The best method is to read the report weekly, only so it will provide a running picture both of the open interest and the size of the positions in the different pairs.

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The Equilibrium Point

The concept of fair market value is visible in retracement movements or when market loses momentum and waits for a large moving average to come close in order to rest on it for a while.

When a trendline matches up with a large Moving Average such as the 800 or 200 Simple Moving Average it usually acts as an attractor, so it can be used as a target for a counter trend position. In case you feel more comfortable following the trend you probably want to stay aside while a market corrects towards a large moving average or switch to a smaller time frame and trade the movement on that time scale. Don't forget that trend following and counter trend approaches are always dependent of the time frame used. You may detect a retracement to the 200 on a 4H chart and capitalize on those impulse moves that price is showing on a 15M time frame to reach that level.

In order to really succeed when trading with Moving Averages always refer to the conversion table displayed in Chapter B01. In this sense, a 200 period Moving Average on a 4H chart corresponds to a 800 Moving Average on a 15M chart.

Rob Booker took this abstraction a little bit further and created a complete new indicator based on the idea that a currency pair oscillates above and below its means. For trading purposes, he chose the 800 Simple Moving Average. This oscillation had to be measured in terms of distance and time, and like any other open oscillator, there had to be extreme levels where statistically the pair would tend to revert its course and initiate a return back to the mean, in this case a movable mean: the 800 SMA.

This is just one of the Economic and Technical View of the Currency Market recorded webinars by Rob Booker. Please feel free to watch all of them to get an overview of how this incredibly simple method can be applied.

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This chapter is a collection of little pearls for you to take on your bag on the Forex adventure. You will not need all of the resources explained here to further build your path into becoming a professional trader. But even if you already have your way to do things and they work for you, it may be an interesting exercise discovering how other experts are capitalizing on the same ideas as you by doing their personal researches.

There is nothing magical about what successful traders do, they just use common analysis tools applied in a logical and consistent manner. What is perhaps the most surprising aspect is the amount of focus and specialization at which most of our experts arrived just by concentrating on a few aspects during a prolonged time. It's inevitable to feel admiration for what they accomplished and we think you can accomplish the same success too if you let them inspire you.

You probably have acknowledged that we have awesome specialists everyday presenting their ideas in form of analysis, blog posts, reports and webinars. This chapter aims to collect pretty much the best ideas from everyone. There are surely many more and more to come, but we let you find them out.It was our aim to motivate you to test these ideas and reach, as a result of that experimenting, a lot of positive experiences with Forex. Reaching the end of the last chapter of Unit C you should now be quite prepared to stay alive in the market. If you manage to stay alive, then we have accomplished our mission here to date. But still, there is more to learn, don't forget to put your knowledge to work in the Practice Chapter and see you in Unit D!

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Feel free to join our LC Forum at FXstreet.com and share your edges and the particularities from your trading, the same way as our experts have done for you.

What you have learned from this chapter:

• 20 different set-ups for all kinds of market conditions.• Several combinations of indicators to take the most out of them.• Many experienced traders vary in their terminology, but the essence of their trading methodology is very similar to other successful traders.• There is no method better that another, it very much depends on the little nuances you get with experience.• A good set-up does not necessarily need to be complicated.

FXstreet.com links:

• Technical Analysis MACD and MACD Aspray , by Valeria Bednarik• Forex Basics Series - Technical Figures , by Valeria Bednarik• Bollinger Bands and RSI , by Valeria Bednarik• Looking for day-trades , by Adam Rosen• Back to Basics - Moving Averages , by Adam Rosen• Combining Candlesticks with Western Technical Analysis , by James Chen• Live Trading Set Ups with Chart Patterns and Market Cycles , by Raghee Horner• What is VWAP: How to Spot Institutions , by Mark Whistler• Monthly Webinar: Harmonic Patterns , by Sunil Mangwani• Trading the Harmonic patterns , by Sunil Mangwani• MONTHLY WEBINAR: Learning to Read Price Action , by Chris Capre

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• Professional Gaps vs Novice Gaps in the Forex Markets , by Sam Seiden• Rule Based Short Term Trading In Forex , Sam Seiden• Capture reversal points with the use of indicators and oscillators , by Sam Seiden• Short term Forex Trading Strategies, Breakouts and Reversals , by Sam Seiden• Low Risk Breakout Trading in Forex , by Sam Seiden• Institutional Trading Strategies: Pivot Points , by Andrei Pehar• Finding Your Entry , by Andrei Pehar• Volatility Trading Strategies to Perceive and Defeat Forex Volatility through Traditional Indicators, by Mark Whistler• Simple Trading Strategies to Perceive and Defeat Forex Volatility through Traditional Indicators, by Mark Whistler• Perceiving Forex Volatility via Descriptive Statistics… Deriving Trending and Reversals − Part 2, by Mark Whistler• Monthly Webinar: What Traders Need to Know About Today's Forex , by Mark Whistler• What is VWAP: How to Spot Institutions , by Mark Whistler• Monthly Webinar: What Traders Need to Know About Today's Forex , by Mark Whistler• Market harmonics and Forex Trading , by Derek Frey• My Favorite Patterns To Trade , by Derek Frey• Trend Trading - Part 1: Elements of Trend Trading in FX and Futures Markets, by Don Wilcox• The Contrarian , by Joseph Trevisani• Catching Redfish off the pool: Trend Lines and Technical Indicators , by S.A. Ghafari• Drilling down, Support and Resistance , by Triffany Hammond• MONTHLY WEBINAR: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading (Part 1) , by Wayne McDonell• MONTHLY WEBINAR: Strategic & Tactical FOREX Trading (Part 2) , by Wayne McDonell• Economic and Technical View of the Currency Market , by Rob Booker• Trading Strategy Essentials , by Phil Newton• MONTHLY WEBINAR - How to manage risk using Price Behaviour analysis , by Mike Baghdady• An introduction to Price Behaviour: Part 3 , by Mike Baghdady• An introduction to Price Behaviour: Part 4 , by Mike Baghdady• Strategies for Long Term Profits in the Forex , by John Jagerson• Todays' Trading Signals Report Explained , by Kim Cramer Larsson• MONTHLY WEBINAR - Part 1: Technical analysis: Price is the King! , by Lea Peters

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