1. Patterns of Structural Transformation andAgricultural Productivity Growth in 109 Countries: With a Special Focus on Brazil, China Indonesia and India Uma Lele, Based on a paper by Uma Lele, Manmohan Agarwal, Peter Timmer and Sambuddha GoswamiGlobal Conference on Agricultural Research and Development, Punta del Este, October 29, 2012

2. What is Structural Transformation? Declining share of agriculture in GDP, Declining share of agriculture in employment, Rural-urban migration, Growth of the services and the manufacturing sectors and A demographic transition with reduction in the population growth rates. The final outcome when differences in labor productivity between theagricultural and non -agricultural sectors narrows considerably. 3. Questions AddressedHow do patterns of structural transformation vary across countries?What role does agriculture play in the structural transformation? How does agricultures role vary across and within BCII and in developingcountries at largeWhat do measures of agricultural productivity growth tells us about ?What policies, investments and institutions explain the differences?What Lessons? 4. Changing Location of Global Hunger No. of Undernourished by Region, 199092 and 201012Caucasus andDeveloped Western AsiaCentral Asia 9 Developed Western Asia Region 16 and Northern Region 20 and NorthernCaucasus and Africa 25 Oceania 1 Africa 13 Central Asia 6 Latin America Oceania 1Latin America and Caribbean and 65 Caribbean 49 South-EasternAsia 65 India 240India 217Eastern Asia(excludingSouth-Eastern China) 9Asia 134 Eastern Asia(excludingSouthern AsiaChina) 7China 158(excluding Southern India) 87 Asia(excluding India) 87 China 254Sub-SaharanSub-SaharanAfrica 234 Africa 1701990-92 2010-12 Total=1000 million Data Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 Total=868 million 5. Changing Location of Poverty Headcount Ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of Population) (1990-2009)70605040302010 0 199019952000 2005 2009BRAZIL CHINAINDIA INDONESIA 6. Declining Share of Ag Value Added With Respect to Per Capita Income109 Developed and DevelopingCountries 88 Developing Countries.8 .8 agriculturalvalueaddedshare.6 .6.4 .4.2 .2 00 4 6 8 10 1246 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000uslngdppcconstant2000us 7. Declining Share of Employment109 Developed and Developing88 Developing Countriescountries1.8 agriculturalemploymentshare .8.6 .6.4 .4.2 .2 0 4 6 8 10 1246 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000uslngdppcconstant2000us 8. Total Ag. Value Added W.R T Per CapitaIncome109 Developed and Developing 88 Developing CountriesCountries7 6lnagrvainmilconstant2000us 5.56 5 4.55 44 3.546 8 10 12 46 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us 9. Per Worker Ag. Value Added 109 Developed and Developing88 Developing Countries12 Countries 910 8 lnagrvapworker 8 7 6 6 4 5 46 8 1012 46 8 10lngdppcconstant2000uslngdppcconstant2000us 10. Difference between the Share of Value added in Agricultureand Share of Employment in Agriculture109 Developed and Developing 88 Developing Countries.1 .1Countries agrvaddedshareminusagremplshare0 0-.1 -.1-.2 -.2-.3 -.346 8 10 12 4 6 8 10 lngdppcconstant2000uslngdppcconstant2000us 11. Share of Agricultural Value Added in Total Minus Share ofAgricultural Employment 19 Countries in Asia 24 Countries in Latin America0 -.1 agrvaddedshareminusagremplshare (Fitted)-.15 -.05 -.2-.1-.25 -.15 -.3-.2-.35 4 68 10126 7 8 9 10lngdppcconstant2000us lngdppcconstant2000us-.238 Countries in Sub- -.25Saharan Africa-.3 -.35-.4 -.45456 7 89 lngdppcconstant2000us 12. Intersectorial Duality Value Added Per worker in Non-Ag and Ag: 4 Countries and All Regions Ratio: Value Added per Worker (Non-Ratio: Value Added per Worker (Non-14Agriculture/Agriculture) Agriculture/Agriculture) by Region18 (BIIC) 12 (1980-2009)16(1980-2009)101412 810 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0Source: WDI & Global Development Finance, World Bank and FAOSTAT 2011 East Asia & Pacific (developing only) Latin America & Caribbean (developing only) Middle East & North Africa (developing only) Source: WDI and Global Development Finance, World BankSouth Asiaand FAOSTAT 2011 Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only) BrazilChinaIndia IndonesiaHigh income 13. Intersectorial Terms of Trade Differences Among RegionsTerms of Trade Terms of Trade by Region (Deflator for Agriculture/Deflator for Non-Agriculture 2.5 (Deflator for Agriculture/Deflator for Non-Agriculture [Industry + Service][Industry Service]) (in US$) (BIIC)(in US$) 3(1980-2009) (1980-2009) 22.51.5 2 11.5 10.50.50 0East Asia & Pacific (developing only)High incomeLatin America & Caribbean (developing only)Middle East & North Africa (developing only)BrazilChina India Indonesia South AsiaSub-Saharan Africa (developing only) 14. Difference between the Share of Value added in Agriculture and the Share of Employment in Agriculture in Brazil, China, India and Indonesia (1980-2009)-.08 Brazil-.1 -.1-.12-.14 -.15-.16-.18-.2 8 8.18.28.3 8.4 lngdppcconstant2000usChinaIndia -.25Indonesia-.3 5 6 78 9 lngdppcconstant2000us 15. WHAT EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES INTHE SPEED OF TRANSFORMATION? 16. What Explains Differences in the Speed of Transformation?(NOT TO BE PRESENTED DUE TO TIME LIMIT!) 17. Land Productivity DifferencesTotal Cereals Yield Growth Total Cereals Yield (1961-2010) (hg/ha)60000 (1961-2010) 45040050000350 Base Year 1961=10040000 30030000 2502002000015010000 100 50001961 1964 19671970 19731976 19791982 1985 19881991 19941997 20002003 200620091961 19641967 197019731976 19791982 19851988 19911994 19972000 20032006 2009Brazil ChinaIndia Indonesia BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesia 18. Technology capital Is strongly correlated with agricultural TFP growthSource: Fuglie/EvansonBar height shows average TFP growth of countries with increasing technologycapacities Source: Evenson & Fuglie (2010) 19. Long-run Average Agricultural TFP growth (1971-2008) (% per year)Former USSRCaribbean Developing OceaniaSub-Saharan AfricaAverage annualTFP growth> 2%Circled regions show persistently1-2%low TFP growth< 1% Source: Keith Fuglie, Productivity Growth in the Global Agricultural Economy. 20. Regional Productivity Growth in Parts of China _Some of the highest Wang et al on Top Ten Provinces The top ten provinces in TFP growth for the 1985-2007 period (* Six of them are on the east coast) Jiangxi 8.17%Guangdong* 8.11% Hebei*7.95% Fujian* 7.89% Shandong* 7.37% Hubei 7.34% Inner 7.26%Mongolia Zhejiang* 7.19%Sichuan7.18% Liaoning* 6.83% 21. DISTRIBUTION OF TFP GROWTH INDEXVALUES BY STATES IN INDIA: 1975-2005JAMMU & KASHMIR HIMACHAL PRADESHPUNJAB UTTARANCHALHARYANAARUNACHAL PRADESH DELHI SIKKIMRAJASTHAN UTTAR PRADESH ASSAMNAGALAND MEGHALAY BIHAR A MANIPURTRIPURA JHARKHANDMIZORAM GUJARATMADHYA PRADESHWEST BENGAL CHHATTISGARH DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI ORISSA MAHARASHTRAANDHRA PRADESH GOA KARNATAKA Note: (1999-2009) PONDICHERRYPONDICHERRY KERALA TAMIL NADU (Red circle) Agricultural Growth Rates > 4% (Black circle) Agricultural Growth Rates 2% to 4%TFP Growth Score ClassN.ABelow 60 [Low]60.00 - 70.00 [Moderate] (Major State Average=70.1) (while circle) Agricultural Growth Rates