caesar 50 - andrey kirilenko and the soviet political succession

8/2/2019 Caesar 50 - Andrey Kirilenko and the Soviet Political Succession

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCYD i r e c t o r a t e o f I n t e l l i g e n c e1 5 Elarch 1 97 11 1IINTELLIGENCE ).?EMORANDUM

ANDREY KIRILENKO AND THE SOVIE" POLITICAL SUCCESSIONIAndrey Kirilenkd has many of th e r e q u i s i t e s t obecome the Sovie t Union 's n e x t "pumber one, '' r e p l a c i n gLeoni4 Brezhnev i n the p o s t of Par ty G ene rG i Sec re ta ryupon t h e l a t t e r ' s r e t i r e m e n t i . f a l 1 , or demise , shouldany of these occur.c a d r e s s e c r e t a r y , K i r i l e n k o ' d r e c t l y c o n t r o l s t h e ap p oi nt -

me:it of P a r t y p e r s o n n e l t o t h k h i g h e s t po s t s i n t h e reg ime.and thus is be t t e r p laced than h i s c o l l e a g u e s t o b u i l dthe pecessary p o l i t i c a l s u p p or t f o r such a n adv;rlce. P e r -haps more impor tan t is t h e s t e ad y i n c r e a s e i n h i s r e a lpower a nd a u t h o r i t y i n t h e k op P a r t y l e a d e r s h i p over t h epa st ce ve ra l year s . With BrczhTr?v 's s uppo r t , nc appea rst o have ga ined an edge ove r the o t h e r s e n i o r s e c r e t a r ys e r v i n g a s t h e G en e ra l F a c r e t a r y ' s d e p ut y , t l i k h f i l S us l o vThere may w e l l be, t h e r e f o r e ) some fo rma l i za t io.1 o f K i r i -1enKo's d e f a c t o p o s i t io n as Brazhnev's sec0r.d -n cormandat th e 2 m ar ty Congress1 which is scheduled t o convene

For one t h i n g , as Brczhnev ' s sen io r

i n l a t e March.T 3 e p o s s i b i l i t y cf K i r i l e n k o * s a c t u a l l y s u c c e ed m gBrezhnev i n t h e t o p P a r t y p o s t sometime i n the f u t u r edepends to a d e c i s i v e d e gr e e, of course, 01 h i s hsvxng

developed and maintained s u i f i c i e n t s u p p o r t among t h er e g i m e 's l e a d i n g o l i g a r c h s : t h e members of t i e . P i r z yPtAitburo who m a k e a l l ma jo r p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s a n d, v h o w i l ls e t t l e t h e i s s u e of t h e p o l i t i c a l s u cc es s io n.l e a d e r s h a v e ten ti ed s i n c e K b r u s h c h e v ' k o u s t e r t o F a l lr o u g h l y i n t o t h r ee c a t e ~ o r i e s :(those o f f i c i a l s , no t n e c e s s a r i l y U k r a i n i a n by n a t l o n a l i t yor b i r t h , who serv ed under Khrushchev i n t h e U kra ine ) ,

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!which is g e n e r a l l y a l i g n e d with Brezhcev i n tcr;s o f p o v e ri n t e r e s t s ; 2 ) t h e " o u t s i d e r s " of t h e P o l i t b i r r o , ~ i . 3 e n dp e r j o d i c a l l y t o make t r o u b l e f o r Drezhnev, and who:& l e a d i n gexample is t r a d e u ni o n c h i c f A l ek s a nd r S h e l e p i n ; a n d % t h et w o o u t s t a n d i n g " i n d e p e n d e n t s , '' Kosygin and Suslov , ! vhchave s u f f i c i e n t s e n i o r i t y a nd p r e s t i g e t o avoid long-livLe>..f a c t io na l commi tmen ts i n the P g r t y ' s i n t e r n a l power s t r u g g l k %1 \K i r i l en k o ' s r e l a t i o n s w it h t h e c e s t r a l figure of &*' \,

I the Ukra in ian group, Brezhnev. a re f a r r i y q ood d e s p ' i t e afew differences of emphasis in t h e i r policy v i e w s T h e i r \a p p a r e n t p e r s o n al c l o s e n e s s is l i k e l y t o have evolved - \. \from t h e i r long a s s o c i a t i o n ir i h e a v y - i n d u s t r i a l s u p e r v i s i o nin. h e , P a r c y d u r i n g t h e i r U k r a i ni a n p e r i od a nd l a t e r , antiis r e i n f o r z e d by the g e n e r al s f m i l a r i t y of t h e i r p o l ic yviews, , T h e General S e c r e t a r y seems to have reached acomfor t ab le unde rs t and ing w i t h his c a d r e s s e c r e t a r y in ,P a r t y - o t g a n i z a t i o n a l q u e s t i o n s . B r ez hn e v h a s p r o ce e d edW i t h r e l a t i v e f re ed om i n r em ov in g S h e l e p i n s c l i e n t s f romk e y p o s i t io n s b ut h as l e f t rrast o t h e r p e rs o n ne l areas a l o n e. Ki ri le nk o may conce iv ably have favo red m re modera te t r e a t -ment than Brezhnev would have prefe rred or some of Shelepin sdeposed suypor t e r s , b u t i n an y e v e n t k.e a p p a r e n t l y h a savoided offending Brezhnev t!irough excessive f a v o r i t i s rand personal pa t ronage i n h i s o v n filling of r o u t l n e v a c a n c i e s .

The s t r e n g t h of Kirilenko's p o l i t i c a l t i e s witho t h e r i n d i v d u a l s i n the U kra in ian g rouF is a s v a r i e das t!ieir b u r e a uc r a t i c p os i t i o n s an d i n t e r e s t s a re n i x e dSo v i e t "P re s ide n t " P liko lay Podgornyy, Once a s t r on g z i va lt o Brezhnev but now without much of a Parcy power bas e,seems close t o K i r i l e n k o in p o l i c y o u tl o ok - I n f a c t . Pod-gornyy appears t o have preserved many of his p o l i t i c a l c on -n e c t l o n s w i t h h i m a n d t h e r e s t of t h e L ' k r a n i a n g r o u p .T h e r e f o r e , assumi,:g him t o be p o l l t i c a l l y a c z i v e when t h es u c c e s s i o n is dec i ded ; Podgornyy pro babl y would g i v e Ki r i -l e n k o h i s vote of conf idence . a t l e a s t o v er c o mp e ti t or sf ro m o u t s i d e the Ukrainian yroup.FirsV..Deputy Precier k % t r i y P ol y an s ki y w ho sec o n n e c t i o n s w i t h . t h e Ukrainian P a r t y o r 3 a n i z a t i o n are. r e a l b u t l e s s obv ious than those of Brezhnev or Fodgornyy.rose th rough t h e r an ks r o u g hl y p a r a l l e l w i t h X ira !enko un t i l

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t h e l a t e 1950s- The emergence of Fr o1 Kozlov a t t h a t t i n eas K hr us hc he v' s h e i r - d e s i g n a t e r e s u l t e d i n a temporarysetback f o r K i r il e nk o (anti D rezhnev) , bu t d id n o t a d v e r s e l ya f f e c t P ol ya ns k .i y' s lo r P o d go r ny y 's ) c a z c e r D e s p i t e h i sa p p a r e n t r o l i t i c a l c o n n e c t i o n s w i t h Kozlov, .Polyanskiymanaged t o h o l d h i s p o s i t i o n when t h e U k r a i n i an s r e g a i n edthe ascendancy i n 1963 I n h e r e n t i n t h e m l y a n s k i y - K i r r -l e n ko r e l a t i o n s h i p , however , i s ! t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r d l s a g r e e -men t a r i s i n g f ro m their d i f f e r i n g b u r e au c r a ti c i n t e r e s t sI nd ee d. P o l ya n s ki y ' s v e st e d i n t e r e s t i n r a p i d a g r i c u l t u r a ldevelopment seems a t times to h a v e c la shed w i t h K i r i l e n k o ss t r o n g c o m t m e n t t o d p o l i c y of i n c r e a s e d l abor produc-t i v i t y an d e f f i c i e n c y an d his a p p a r e n t des i re to c h a n n e lsome a g r i c u l t u r a l f un ds e l sew he re ,U k r a i n i a n P a r t y boss P e t r S h e l e s t , w!:o rose undert h e ae3is of Podgornyy 'and h a s a h i s t o r y of r i v a l r y w i t hsome o f the U k r ai n i an a s s o z i a t e s of Brezhnev and Kir i lenkoc o d d , p l a y a n im po rt an t p a r t i n t h e F o l i t i c a l s u cc e ss i onS h e l e s t , t n a d d i t i o n to c o t i r r o l l i n g t h e U kra in ian Pa r tyo rgan iza t ion ; may have assumed l e a d e r s h i p of th e f o r c e sw hi ch r :dgornyy once marsha led on t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e lSh e le s t may in f a c t be t r y i n g t o undermine Brezhnev'si n f l u e nc e i n t h e Ukra in ian group, and this f u r t h e r com-p l i c a t e s K i r i ' e n k o s p o s i t l o nKiri l enko a p p a r e r t l v h a s tr,ed t o keep open h i sl i n e s t o t h e regime's younger non-Ukra in ian leaders despitet h e i n . c r i t i c a l a t t i t u d es tow ard Brez tnr lv She leprn . t h eh s d i n g " o u ts i d er " among P o l i t b u r o members, and KJ r i l e n k oseem t o have a corxop. approach t o many po li cy problems.

f o r example, they b o th h av e an e v i d e n t d i s t r u s t of d e t e n t ew i t h t h e Vest, and p a r t i c u i a r l y w i t h t h e Uniced S t a t e sBrezhnev ' s maneuver ings i n 1966 b r o u g h t them i n t o r i v a l r yi n t h e S e c r e t a r i a t . however, a nd t h e t r a n s f e r of S h e l e p i nt o t h e t r ade union post i n 1 9 6 7 appeared e v e n t u a l l y t o , -s e p a r a t e him fron K i r i l e n k o . who w a s drawn closer t o BrezhnevB ut w h i l e K i r il e n k o h as n o t v i s i b l y s o ug hr t o hinder Brezhnevi n h i s r e I i e a t e d e f f o r + s t o dow ngrade She lep in ' s sup por t e r sthe w e i q h t of t h e e t - ldence sugge s t s t h a t Brezhnev ha s noty e t s u c c e e d e d fully in d i s r ap t i ng t h e r e l a t l o n s h a p b et we enth e t w o -

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F i r s t Deputy Premier i r i l l P:azurov i s a n o t h e rp o l i t i c a l s d cc e ss i on The *-kcmen have worked t og et he rs i n x ?965 i n t h e s p h er e of i nd us t r i a l r xi na ge me nt , K i r i l e nk oon t h e P a r t y s i d e and P!azurod 11) the government.f o r e i g n p o l i c y .wi th Polya nsk iy comp l ic a te P lazurov 's own fu tu re , bu t sof a r they do n o t seem t o h av e s i g n i f i c a n t l y wo rs en ed h i sr e l a t i o n s w i t h K i r i l e n k o

"ou t s i de r* w i t h whom K i r i l e r :I: could becone a l l i e d i n t h eThey

D i f f e r e n c e s k i t h B re rh ne v a nd r i v a l r y. a ppe a r t o have s imi lar views i n t h i s area , as w e l l as i n

, iI ti t t h i r d ' "outs ider . " RS f SR ' Prenier Gennadiy Vomnov,h a s a long h i s t o r y of r i v a l r y wit! K i t i l e n k o i n terms ofboth power i n t e r e s t s a nd po l i c y V ~ ~ W Se v e r a l melor g a i n swh i c h K i r i l e nko made i n c o n s o l i d a t in g h i s h o l d on t h e P a r tycadres a p p a r a t u s i n t h e RSFW s i n c e 1962 w e r e a t t h e ex-pense of Voronov s i n f l u e n c e ' i t t h i s s ph er e.m u ni s t p o l i t i c a l s pe ct ru m Voronov h a s t h e r e p u t a t i o n ofa "moderate" who a p p a r e n t l y iavors c o n c e s s i o n s i n economicp o l i c y t h a t c o n f l i c t w i t h K l r l enlto s nore or thodox approachi n most economlc areas

d e n t s - of t h e P o l i t b u r o whose p l a c e ir, t h e t o p ie . iCershrpi s c r u c i a l t o t h e success ior i i s sue m y have l i t t l e d i r e c tc o n t a c t w i t h K i r i l e n k o The Fain rivalry bstween theS e c r e t a r i a t a nd C ou nc il of I.!inisters C-cnrcrs on Brezknovand Kosygin, and Ki r i l en ko s pos i t l or , r n t h i s c o m p e ti t io nseems to s h i f t w i t h t h e i s s u e s f.!ore a p o r t a n t l y , 3n anumber of d o n e s t i c a n d f o rc i c i i p o l i c y q h e s t r o n s K i r i l e n k oand Kosygin appear t o hold o p p o s i t e views. a l though theyh av e a p p a r e n t l y a r r i v e d a t a consensus o f ' s o r t s i n !m l i cyon i n du s t r i a l macagement a nd p l a nn i ng B r ez hne v 's pos i t i o nha s f a vo r e d s o m e t i m e s Kosygin, sometines KLrilenko, and

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Ic c a si o n a ll y n e i t h e r IThe p r e s en c e o f t h e o t h e r " i n d e p e n d e n t, " P ar fyS e c r e t a r y N i k h a i l S u sl o v. s e r i o u s l y c o m p l i c a t e s K i r i -l e n k o ' s c h a nc e s i n the s uc c e s s i on r t i t h m or e t ha n 23y e a r s ' c on t in u ou s s e r v i c e i n t h e S e c r e t a r i a t , S us lo v h a senormous p r e s t i g e a nd c on s i de r a b l e power i n s D i t e of h i sh a v i n g s p e c i a l i z e d almost exclusive1.y in ideo logy propa-ganda , and for e i gn Communist r e la t i on s . T he l i n i t e de v i d e n ce s u g g e s t s t h a t S . ~ s l o v n d K i r i l e n k o .are i n f a c tI

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engaged i p . a s t r u g g l e or po s i t i on a nd power , w i t hou t*:ecessari!i, b ei ng i n o p p o s i t i o n o n matters of p o l i c yI n making per so. . - c l dp pc in qe nt s . Ki r i l enk o has rihown h i shand i n the pr c v i nc e s , whe r e a l a r g e number o f t e c hno c r a t shave r i s e n t o t h e p o s t cf P a r t y boss , b u t S u s l o v h a s ap-paFent ly had a m o d e r a t h g r n f l Q c n c e on K i r i l e n k o 'ment of cadres i r i t h e c e n t r a l p o s t s ; w ne re a majof i t y ofapp oin tees have been ipparen t compromisesp l a c e -

S e v e r a l n en * 3 dtr a t p r e s e n t lesser l i g h t s , p r i -m a r i l y iit che l e v e l 2f alLernatc member o l t h e PoLi tburoand member of t n e S ec r e t a r i a t : c o u l d become i m p or t an t i nthe ?oLit ical s u c c e s s i o n A r v i d P e l ' s h e , chairman oft h e P a r t y C o n t r ol Ccxnission and a f u l l member of t h eP o l i t b u r o a t age 7 2 a p pe a rs d e s t i n e d f o r retirement soon;however, as long as he remains a c t i v e h e p ro ba bl y wouldside w i t h S u s l o v ( h i s p a t r o n a n d r e p o r t e d b r o t h e r - in - l a w ,r a t h e r ti a n K i ri l en k o h o n g t h e P o l i t b u ro a l t e r n a t emembers. p o s s i b l e K .i .ri le nk o s u p p o r t e r s i n a c r i s i s i n c l u d eP a r t y S e c r e t a r y Dm it r i y Us t i nov a quas i - " independent" wh oove r s e e s all S o v i e t d e f e n se - : e l a t e d i n d u s t r y ; a nd KGBChairman Yuriy Andropov. w:iose p a s t p o l i t i c a l c o n n e c t i c n swi t h S us l ov a nd o t h e r s have no t p r e ve n t e d t-he developmentof t i e s to K i r i l e n k o Larger q u e s t i o n m a r k s m o n o t h eo t h e r p o t e n t i a l l y i mp o r t an t figures i n t h e s u c c s s s i o npic tu re a r e P a r t y sec re ta r ie s Ivan Kapitonov and PecrDemichev r e s p o n s i b l e f o r - s u p e r v i s i n g r e s p e c t i v e l y thec a d r e s sec tor and t h e propaganda na cn in e Kapitonov hasworked for K i r i l en k o i n t h e c a d r e s a p p a rs t u s s i n c e 1965 b u th a s n o t c l e a r l y r e v e a l e d h i s p o l i t i c a l s g mp a tn i es De Trc he vseems most c l o s e l y a l l i e d w i t h S h e i e g i n a n d a p p a r c n t l yhas had l i t t l e c o n t a c t w ic h K i r i l e n k oOn t h e b a s i s of t h e f o r e g o i n g , K i r i l e n k o s i n f l u -er.ce w i t h i n t h e l e a d e r s h i p c an be s u r m a r i z e d as g e n e r a l l yq u i t e s t r on g when c ompar ed with t h a t of h i s c l o s e s t c om pe t i -t o rs . -H i s f i r n e s t s u pp o rt comes f rom the Ukra in ian groupb u t h e a p p a r e n t l y h as scme p o l i t i c a l c on t ac t w i t h t h e younser" o u t s i d e r s , " an d c o u l d w e l l en t e r i n t o a n a l l i a n c e w it hthem i n t h e success ioa T h e r e are however. any number ofi m ponde r ab l es a f f e c t l n ; K i r i l e nko s c ha nc e s t3 becone t h e"number on&jl-nan i n th e P a r t y . t h e f i r s t be ing Brezhnev ' sh e a l t h - - F C l i t i C a l a nd o therwise T h e Rest l i k e l y p r o s p e c t. i s for Brc3hnev . s r ec e iv in g a mandate a t t h e . 2 l t h Party Congress

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. . . . ... .., . . 0 ' . . . . . . . ... . . .. . ... '. . . .- I. _ . . . . . ) . . .. . . .to c o n t i n u e as P a r t y boss f o r a n o th e r 4 - 5 y e a r term There-f o r e , K i r i l c n k o ' s b e s t o p p o r t u n i t y for t ak ing connandhir rself would seem t o be t h e General S e c r e t a r y ' s p h y s i c a li n c a p a c i t a t i o n or e a r l y d e a th . A second i n p o r ta n t . c o n s l d e r a -t i o n i s K i r i l e n k o s age Drezhnev ac tua l ly i s i f ew nonthsyounger t ha n K i r i l c n ko ( th jugh a p p a r e n t l y less h e a l t h y )Should Bkezhnev seem 1ikely t o remain General S e c r e t a r yf o r a few more ye n r s , K i r i l e nko c ou l d d e c i d e t o bid i n s r e a dfor the pr c m i e r s n i p with t h e s u p p o r t of t h e P a r t y boss

What kind of successor m i gh t K i r i l e nko be? Hispolicy views may be sunmarized as n e o - S t a l i n i s t fo r t h emost part Ilin f o r e i g n policy views r evea l t h e mind ofa f a i r l y o r th o do x H a r x i s t -L e n i n i s t w!io is h i g h l y s u s p i c i o u so f t h 3 West K i r i l e n k o has t h u s f a r had r e l a t r v e l y f e wd e a l i n q s with W es te rn s t at e sm e n . i n c o n t z a s t w i t h Brezhnevf o r example? who had same such contacts under Khrushchevd u r i n g a t h r e e - ye a r term a s S o v i e t ' P r e s i d e n t . ' K i r i l e n k o sc a u t ious Lip s t r v i c e t o a p o l i c y of d e t e c t e is i n f r e a u e n tand c a r r i e s tough co ndi t io ns which appe ar almost to r u l eo u t its a p p l i c a t i o n t o the US a nd he ha s be en i n t h c fore-f r o n t of t h o s e l eade r s who champio? t h e "Brezhnev Doctrrne"of l i m i t e d s ove r e i gn t y a nd of d e f e n s e o f ' so c ia l i s t 9air.sI n h i s p u b l i c s t a t e m en t s K i r i l e n ko kds come as c lo se a san y other t o p S o v i e t l eader KO c x p l i c i t a d v o c a c y of aforward po i icy H e h a s t e r n e d t h e r e n d e r i n g of S o v i e ta i d to t h e V A e t n a r n e s e and Arabs c o t o n l y 3 ' r e v o l u t i o n a r yd u t y ' b ut a l s a a cczuircnent of s o v i e t s e c u ri t y He a l sohas been very c r i t i c a l i n c i d e n t a l l y , of t h e CormuniscChine , se l eader sh ip and has de fended t h e S o v i e t p o l i c y ofa t t a c k i n g P e k in g ' s p p l i t i c a I and i d e o l o g i c al p o s i t r o n sa nd bu i l d i n g up a " s e c u r e defense" aaainst. any ithat i s .Chinese) encroachments ; he ha s however .. r e na i ne d WL t h i nt h e g e n e r a l f r a a c zz r k of Rrezhnev ' s po l icy of Cot s h u t t i n gth e door on hope f o r a r e c o n c i l i a t i o n w i t h Ch in a i n r h elong r u ns t a t e m e n t s h z s i t s c o r o l l a r y in dornestic p o l i c i e s e s p e c i-a l l y in t h e c o l t u r a l and s o c i a l spheres Al though h e ap -p a r e n t l y h a s a c ce p t e d t h e r a t i o n a l e b e hi n d i n c r e a s e dcocsurner-goods productLon i n z e c e n t ?cars Kirilenko ha sargued ag a i ns t immediate a i d t o a g r i c u l t u r e an d ho c si n g A nt h e a l l o c a t i o n of r c s x r c e s tie long h a s f a vo r e d t h e use

The mil i taccy K i r i l e n k o r e v e a l s in f o r e i g n p o l i c y

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of cxhorta:\on and p e r s u a s i o n over t h e a p p l i c a t i o n ofm a t e r i a l i n c e n t i v e s to p r o d u c t i o n ; i n a d d i t i o n , he hasf a i l e d to e n d o r s e t h e mo]or:wpae g a i n s of recent ycarsvh:ch Drezhnev, tor o n e , h a s defended

K i r i l c n k o h a s r c v e a t c d s o mc t ni n g of an undogna t i c ,t c c h n o c r a t i c b i a s , however. an his v iew s on econon tcmanagement I l k s speeches on, t h i s tilcr;c o v e r t h e y e a r sh av e c o n s i s t e n t l y p r o r a t e d p r a gn a tL c s o l u t i o n s t o t h el ong -s t and ing rnanagc r i a l problccs of the Sovlc t ec0nor .yS i c p i i f r c a n t l y . t h e i fo r himi rarc ment ion ot S t a l i nd u r i n g t h e early 1960s - - Khrusi-chev. of c o u r s e , h a dn um er ou s p u b i a c s u p p o r t e t s oi. :~{s d e - S t a l i n l z a t i o n c a r n p a i g nt h e n - - w a s i n t h e c o n t c % t of c f i t i c i s n of t h e d i c t a t o r ' s"dogmas," the s t e r e o t y p e s a n d r i g i a policies w h i c h , a c c o r d -i n g t o K i r i l e n k o . p r e v e n t e d h m a s t appra,Lsals o f t h e econccyand h m p e r e d s c i e n c e an d t c ch n ol o yy Jn l i n e w i th h i s~ C O I ~ S E I Cpragmatism. K i r i 1 e n k o ; h a s b e en o n e of t h e fewS cv ie t leaders to assoc ia te h i m e l f p u bl i c ly w i t h t h ecrcation of a business managenent school a l o n g 'bourgeoisl i n e s

AS in t h e case w:th S o v i e t l e a d e r s i n g e n e r a l .little is known a!,out Ki r i L c nRo s real VLCII'S on de fense ands t r a t e g i c qu e st i on s , a l t h u q h so s et h i n g of h i s q ? n e r a l at-t i t u d e c an be i n f e r r e d f r c n t ! e d o n e s t i c and f o r e r g policyp o s i t i o n s u e s c r i b e d a bo ve l l r s onby a u b l i c s t a t t s m n c anSALT to d a t e was a s t r r c t l y Ora_ CQKFa aSSerC13n ln ?iDrii1970 t h a t t h e t a l k s ca n produce results " I f tkc C n i t e d .S t a t e s nakes a n h m e s t a t t em p t t o s o l v e t h z prol.ler?. a thand anc! not t r y to a c h i e v e o n e - s i d e d + i n s * T h i s c a u t i o u sremark is c o n s i s t e n t wirfi Xirilcnko's g e n e r a l l y cynicala t t i t u d e t ow ar d t h c i'S which h a s been to t,?c e f f e x t h a tt h e L'S government 1s cwo - f a c e d i n w a nt i n @3032 r e 1 , i t i o n sw i t h t h e So*Jie t Union w k i l a 'waging war aga lns r . ann the rs o c i a l i s t c o u n t r y " i Y 9 r t h Vietnar-: T h e s e vLews ny doub tu n d e r l i e !:irilenko s r e p e a t e d l y e x p r es s e d 3p in r. on n theneed to i n c r e a s e S o v i e t d e f e n s e c a p : - - l i t i e s n v i z . ? r; a"dangerous ' i n t e r n a t _ana l s t u a t i o nE i r i l e n k o ' s h a rd - no s ad v ie ws a re fairly c lo so t o Bqezknev s

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c o n s e r v a t i v e p o s i t i o n a nd i n d ee d p r o b a b l y ha v e hac! as t r o n q c r i n p a c t t h a n t h o s e of nost o t h e r P o l i t bu r o men-berr; on t h e t h i n k i c g of t h e b a s i c a l l y c a u t i o u s G e ne r alS e c r e t ar y I n r e l a t i o n t o t h e o ther p o l i c y - m a k e r s . Kiri-l e n k o ' s militancy toward t h e US and t h e res t of r h e" i m p e r r a l i s t i c " Kest is n o t q u i t e as s t r i d e n t 3s t h a tof Suslqw or S h e l e p i n , bu t i t a p pe a rs i n s h a r p rr) l iefa g a i n s t Premier Kosygin ' s more m o d e r a t e p o s i t r o n i ftherefore . Sualov and K os yg in f a l r l y r e p r e s e n t t h e ends

. o f the spectrum o n t h e q u e s t i o n of S o vi e t- i lS r e l a t i o n s .wi th Pre zhne v somewhere neax th e mi dd l e . then K i r i l e n k o. e v i d e n t l y w o u l d f a l l close t o Brezhnev. but on S u s l o v 6side.j A g a i n s t t h i s b ac kg ro lj nd K i r i l e n k o would a p p e a r KObe l i t t l e more i m a g i n a t i v e i n the p o s t of G e n e ra l S e c r e t a r yt h a n B r ez hn ev h a s b ee n K i r i l e n k o i n t h e p o s t of P r e m i e rpro5ably would be p e r c e p t i b l y less open KO f o r e i g n - p o l r c yn e - o t i z ' t i o n t h a n K o sy gi n h a s seemed to be I n e i t h e r t h eP a r t y #r t h e g ov er nm en t p o s t K i r i l e n k o n i g h t be i n c l i n e 2-to s a i c t r o n s omewhat arec ter risks t han th e pos t-K hrushchcv1 e a d e r S h i p h a s t d k en e s p e c i a l l y i n i t s d e a l i n g s w i t h theUS i n i n t e r na t i o na l problem a r e a s . a n d t o endorse an evenmore r e F r e s s i v e p o l i c y a t hone I t i s . o i c o u r s e , p o s s i b l et h a t t h e g r e a t e r K e S p O n S l b l l l t l e S of a h i g h e r office andi n c r e a s e d contac t w i t h K e s t c r n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s m ig h t i nd u c eK i r i l e n k o to modera te scfiewhat his p r - s e n t V i e w s Onef ac to r a c q u ln g a g a i n s t a ny v e r y s e r i o u s s uc h m o d i f i c a t i o ni n K i r i l e n k o 's vicws however. i s his a p p ar e n t d i s i n c i i n a -t i o n t o yre1.d to o p p o r c u n i s t l c c o n s i i e r ac l o n s . as r e f l e c t e dr n h i s u n u su a ll y c o n s i s t e n t p o s i t i o n on ~ 0 1 i q s s u e s o v e rt i r e yea r s

therefore . would d o u b t l e s s b e i t s c o n t i n u a t i o n a n d r n t e n -s i f i c a t i o n of t h e m i ; p o l i c i e s of t h e p r e s e n t l e a d e rs h i pK i r i ' l e n l c o rJould probabiy be n o t a t all i n c l i n e d to slowt h e mcnentum of t h e p r e s e n t t r e n d away from t h e r e l a t L v el a x i t y of t h e 1:hrLs;chev year s b u t o n t h e concrazy wouldte l i k e l y t o p r e s s e v e n h a r d e r than h e h a s p u s h e d u n t i ln w t o t i g h t e n ecozomic and s b c i a l d i s c i p l i n e The t a s kof c o u n t e r i n g s u c h a s t r o n g t rend could be u n d e r t a k e n o n l yby someone 'less c l o s e l y i d e n t i f i e d w i t h t h e pos -Khrushchev

A l i k e l y g e ne r a l f e a t u r e of a K i r i l e n k o r e g r c e .


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caesar 50 - andrey kirilenko and the soviet political succession

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