Calculando pasivo laboral

Panorama general de Mexico

Distribution of Economically Active Population 2010

IMSS30.1%

ISSFAM0.6%

StateISSSTE1.9%

No Social Security62.8%

PEMEX0.3%

ISSSTE4.4%

IMSSISSSTEISSFAMStateISSSTEPEMEXNo Social Security

Participacion 1980-2011

26.5%27.0%27.5%28.0%28.5%29.0%29.5%30.0%30.5%31.0%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Crude Death Rate (CDR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR) in Mexico 1895-2045

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025 2045

Cru

de R

ates

Per

100

0

CBRCDR

IMSS

Total retirees under IMSS 1944-2011

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Real Minimum Wage in Mexico 1969-2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Inde

x

Distribution of workers under IMSS 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-65 65+

Ley 95Ley 73

Payment of Pension under Ley 73 2009-2011

0

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

Dec-08 Jul-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12

Valu

e in

Cur

rent

Pes

os

Payment of Pension under Ley 97 2009-2011

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

Dec-08 Jul-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12

Valu

e in

Cur

rent

Pes

os

Scenario 1: 40 years of service with 10 years in AFORE

Base SalaryMonthly

Money in AFORE Pension (women) Pension (men) IMSS pension

$8,000 $92,367 $471 $540 $7,010

$15,000 $173,189 $883 $1,013 $13,116

$25,000 $288,648 $1,472 $1,689 $21,861

$50,000 $405,261 $2,067 $2,371 $22,559

$100,000 $405,261 $2,067 $2,371 $22,559

Scenario 2: 40 years of service with 20 years in AFORE

Base Salary monthly Money in AFORE Pension (women) Pension (men) IMSS pension

$8,000 $273,452 $1,395 $1,600 $7,010

$15,000 $512,723 $2,615 $3,000 $13,116

$25,000 $854,538 $4,358 $5,000 $21,861

$50,000 $1,199,771 $6,119 $7,020 $22,559

$100,000 $1,199,771 $6,119 $7,020 $22,559

Scenario 3: 40 years of service with 40 years in AFORE

Base Salary monthly Money in AFORE Pension (women) Pension (men) IMSS pension

$8,000 $1,198,335 $6,111 $7,011 $7,010

$15,000 $2,246,878 $11,459 $13,146 $13,116

$25,000 $3,744,796 $19,098 $21,910 $21,861

$50,000 $5,257,694 $26,814 $30,761 $22,559

$100,000 $5,257,694 $26,814 $30,761 $22,559

Assumptions• (1) There is no entry into the system since July 1, 1997• (2) People are not leaving the private sector to join the public

sector• (3) The disability experience of the future will be the same as that

of 2001-2010• (4) The mortality experience of the future retirees will be the same

as that of 2001-2010• (5) The rate of wage growth is 1 percent real• (6) The rate of growth of pension paid is the same as the wage

growth rate• (7) Those getting less than the minimum salary at retirement will

opt for the minimum pension

IMSS deficit as a percentage of GDP

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

left5%

IMSS

right95%

ISSSTE

Number of Workers Per Retiree 1960-2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79

Age

Transition Generation New Generation

Age Distribution ISSSTE Workers

Assumptions• (1) There is no entry into the system any more• (2) Persons who leave the job permanently will follow the same

pattern as the actual experience of 1997-2010• (3) The disability experience of the future will be the same as that

of 1997-2010• (4) The mortality experience of the future retirees will be the same

as that of EMSSA 2009• (5) The interest rate paid by the recognition bond is 3.5 percent real• (6) The rate of wage growth is 1 percent real• (7) Those getting less than 2 times the minimum salary at

retirement will opt for the minimum pension

ISSSTE deficit as a percent of GDP

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

left5%

ISSSTE

right95%

IMSS-RJP

New Employees IMSS-RJP 1977-2011

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Deficit of IMSS-RJP as a percentage of GDP

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Estados

Aguascalientes, Baja California Norte, Campeche, Cuahuila, Colima, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Durango, Guanajuato,

Guerrero, Jalisco, México (Estado), Michoacán, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Puebla, Querétaro, San Luís Potosí, Sonora,

Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Yucatán and Zacatecas.

Year Retirees Annual Pension Per person

2007 115,317 $91,713

2008 123,389 $96,120

2009 132,730 $104,071

2010 143,398 $109,996

2011 154,656 $120,500

State Pension deficits as a percent of GDP

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

180000000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

left5%

States

right95%

PEMEX

PEMEX workers and retirees

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Workers

Retirees

ISSFAM

PEMEX deficit as a percentage of GDP

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Years of service Months of salary

5 years 6 months

6 years 7 months

7years 8 months

8 years 10 months

9 years 12 months

10 years 14 months

11 years 16 months

12 years 18 months

13 years 20 months

14 years 22 months

15 years 24 months

16 years 26 months

17 years 28 months

18 years 30 months

19 years 32 months

Entry Age

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-48Age Group

Distribution of age at retirement

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85

age

perc

ent r

etiri

ng

ISSFAMIMSS

Armed Forces 1989-2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Military as a percent of labor force

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Retired ISSFAM Monthy 1999-2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05

Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12

ISSFAM deficit as a percentage of GDP

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Resumen

Projected Uncovered Deficits of Government Pension Liability

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Defic

its a

s a p

erce

ntag

e of

201

0 GD

P

IMSS

ISSSTE

States

RJP

PEMEX

ISSFAM

Total Pension Liability in 2010 Pesos

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060