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Calculus-Based Physics 5 Year Market Analysis

Fall 2009 to Spring 2014

August 2014

A 5-year analysis of publisher market share and market volatility in over 350 4-year institutions, and an in-depth analysis of adoption history for leading texts.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

METHODOLOGY

PART A: PUBLISHER MARKET SHARE

1. CHART 1: Total Annual Enrollment in TWM Schools 8 2. TABLE 1: Annual Market Share for Leading Publishers 9 3. CHART 2: Annual Publisher Market Share 10

4. CHART 3: 5-Year Publisher Market Share 11

5. TABLE 2: Annual Market Share for Leading Titles 12 6. CHART 4: Annual Market Share for Top Ten Titles 13 7. TABLE 3 : Pearson Publishing: % of Total List Sales by Title 14

8. CHART 5: Pearson Publishing: % of Total List Sales by Title 15

9. CHART 6: Pearson Publishing: Annual Market Share of Pearson Titles 16 10. TABLE 4: Wiley Publishing: % of Total List Sales by Title 17 11. CHART 7: Wiley Publishing: % of Total List Sales by Title 18

12. CHART 8: Wiley Publishing: Annual Market Share of Wiley Titles 19

13. TABLE 5: Cengage Publishing: % of Total List Sales by Title 20 14. CHART 9: Cengage Publishing: % of Total List Sales by Title 21 15. CHART 10: Cengage Publishing: Annual Market Share of Cengage Titles 22

16. CHART 11: Total # of Students in Courses using Technology 23

17. CHART 12: Market Share for Technology Components: Fall 2012 to Spring 2014 24 18. CHART 13: Tracking Technology by # of Students: Fall 2012 to Spring 2014 25

19. CHART 14: Tracking Technology by % of Students: Fall 2012 to Spring 2014 26

PART B: UNIVERSITY ADOPTION ANALYSIS

Summary of Adoption Volatility Metrics for Fall 2009 through Spring 2014

1. Schools that did not Change Adoptions at in Least One Calculus-Based Physics Course 28 2. Schools that did not Change Adoptions in any Calculus-Based Physics Course

a. Used a Single Text 29

b. Used Multiple Texts 33 3. Schools that Changed Adoptions During the Period

a. Changed Adoptions Once per Course 35

b. Changed Adoptions More than Once 41

4. Schools that are individual choice for all tracks 49 5. TABLE B1: Calculus-Based Physics Market Volatility Grid 50 6. CHART B1: Summary of Adoption Changes by Publisher 51

7. TABLE B2: Summary of Adoption Changes in Technology 52 8. TABLE B3: Brand Loyalty Analysis for Leading Texts/Author Families 53

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APPENDIX A

Calculus-Based Physics Top 50 Schools by Enrollment 54

APPENDIX B

Calculus-Based Physics Top 25 Schools Using Technology 60 APPENDIX B

All TWM Schools Alphabetical Listing 63

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key Market Shifts

Annual cumulative enrollment has grown by 25% between F09/S10 and F13/S14 (see Chart 1). Our current market size estimate for all semesters and tracks is ~535K annually.

Comparing like semesters, the number of students enrolled in courses with a technology component grew by 14% for fall and 16% for spring over the past year (see Chart 11).

Pearson has controlled more than half the textbook market (53%) over the past 5 years (see Chart 3).

Freeman had the strongest performance, growing its market share from 5.9% in the first year to 10.4% in the most recent year (see Table 1).

Pearson and Freeman were up net 4%+ from F09/S10 and currently sit at 5-Year highs.

Wiley and Cengage were off net 4% from F09/S10 and currently sit at 5-Year lows.

McGraw-Hill had consistent growth for the first 4 years and then pulled back .3% within the past year.

2014 revisions from Wiley, Cengage and McGraw-Hill each suffered market share declines for F13/S14.

Every publisher has had at least one market share decline in the past 5 years.

Part A Market Share Pearson publishes 5 of the 17 titles tracked in this report and 3 of the top 5. Without the benefit of a new edition, #1 Young (5/e, 2012) is at a 5-year high and controls a quarter of the market with an annual tracked enrollment of 100K (see Table 2). #3 Knight (3/e, 2013) is also at a 5-year high. Pearsons ability to compete effectively with 2014 revisions from Wiley (Halliday 10/e), Cengage (Serway 9/e) and McGraw-Hill (Bauer 2/e) underscore the importance of Mastering Physics in not only holding, but gaining market share (more on this below under Technology Components). Halliday peaked in the 3rd year following its 2011 revision. The 2014 revision had the worst performance of the 3 mentioned above; the August 2013 publication date for 10/e may have contributed to its 3% market share loss for F13/S14. Halliday is currently #3 behind Knight and Young. Prior to Serways 2014 revision, Cengage was able to put together back to back growth years. The January 2013 publication of 9/e was optimal but coincided with the publishers bankruptcy and all the distractions and uncertainty entailed. Thus, the revision was more of an opportunity for its competitors than for Cengage, resulting in a 2% loss and reversion to its 5 year low from 3 years prior. W.H. Freeman has had the most successful recent launch. Unlike Mastering, WileyPlus and Connect, SmartPhysics was developed as a stand-alone e-book/ILS. Because it is used as the primary course material 55% of the time, it is included in the traditional textbook market share analysis. Significant standalone SmartPhysics adoptions include U Illinois at Urbana (5,900), U Nebraska-Lincoln (1,700) and University of Utah (1,500). Kesten University Physics for the Physical and Life Sciences (2012) has not been a success, picking up only a handful of adoptions. Hawkes - Physics for Scientists and Engineers: An Interactive Approach (2014) from Nelson Canada deserves mention as it represents a successful launch of a product designed for the Canadian market. Its also interesting to note that it is not

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available on amazon.com (although a Google search does provide a link to amazon.co.uk). It currently has large adoptions at UBC and U Waterloo. Part B Volatility Trends Aside from the market share charts and graphs in Part A, Part B provides further insight into brand loyalty and change behavior during this period. Following are several observations: Overall Volatility 49% of the market has changed their Calculus-Based Physics text for at least one track over the past 5 years (as compared to the less volatile Algebra-Based Physics at 32%). 19% of the market has changed more than once during this time; 31% of the time returning to their original text (most often Halliday and Young). The volatility is less rosy for any particular year. Last year was more active than the previous, with 64 schools (15%) moving to a different text or ILS (as compared to 51 schools from the previous year). Of the 64 schools that went to a new text this past year, most went to Young (14), followed by Knight (9) and Halliday (8). About a third of the schools (36%) have multiple course tracks, most using different Calc-Based Physics textbooks. By comparison, only 14% of schools have multiple course tracks in the Algebra-Based Physics market. With regard to specific titles/products

- Aside from Penn State for the first two semesters (2,200) and U Houston (1,600), most of Hallidays losses within the past year came at 2nd tier schools like Gonzaga (250), U Windsor (600), St Cloud State (350), University of Minnesota-Duluth (700) and Central Michigan (900).

- The 2014 revision of Bauer 2/e (MH) was adopted for the Fall 2013 semester and then dropped for Spring 2014 at University of Houston (1,600 to Young) and U South Carolina (1,350). U Houston involved a change from Connect to Mastering. These 1-term adoptions may indicate a weakness for either the 2/e or Connect.

- Significant recent losses for Serway included Drexel (3800 to Tipler), Cal State LA (2,700 to Young), and U South Florida (2,000 to Young). WebAssign was involved in all three, losing to Sapling at Drexel and Mastering at Cal State LA and U South Florida.

- From the Volatility Grid (Table B1) o Overall, the grid shows a lot of volatility, with Young, Halliday and Knight picking up 57, 48, and 39 wins

over the past 5 years. But Young and Knight have 37 and losses each, whereas Halliday lost 65 adoptions for a net loss of 17.

o Young was the strongest net performer overall (+20), followed by SmartPhysics (+17). o 42% of Youngs new adoptions came at the expense of Halliday. And Young accounted for 37% of

Hallidays losses. o About half of SmartPhysics wins came from Halliday (5) and Young (4). o 28% of Pearsons new adoptions were cannibalized from other titles on its list.

- From the Brand Loyalty Analysis (Table B2): o The top 4 titles are all from Pearson and all have increased their brand loyalty over the past year (Knight

+10%, Young +6%, Wolfson +5%, and Giancoli +2%. o Halliday has the most adoptions but, currently the lowest brand loyalty (64.2%)

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Technology Components We were able to identify at least one technology component at 248 of the 356 (70%) schools teaching the course over the past 2 years (we began tracking technology components in 2012). This number does not necessarily indicate that all or any students opt for (activate) the technology component, but it is at least offered. Mastering is dominant with 53% of the total enrollment, more than 2x that of #2 WebA