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California Almond and Drought

Gabriele Ludwig, Associate Director, Environmental Affairs

California Drought Forum May 15, 2014

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The Scope of the Almond Growing in California

Spanning 500 miles throughout the Central Valley

100% of U.S. production

~ 6,500+ growers, 100 “handlers” -  50% of growers have 50 A or less -  90%+ are family owned & run

Over 80% of worldwide production

Top U.S. horticultural crop in export value

2012 farm gate value $4.8 billion ABC is a grower-enacted “Federal Marketing

Order” established in 1950 •  Represents growers and handlers

(processors)

Operates under supervision of USDA

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Trends in Bearing Almond Acreage

590,000 610,000 640,000 710,000

750,000 770,000 800,000 820,000 840,000 860,000

3.5% 3.4%

4.9%

10.9%

5.6% 2.7%

3.9%

2.5% 2.4% 2.4%

-0.5%

2.0%

4.5%

7.0%

9.5%

12.0%

-

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Estimated

Thou

sand

Acr

es

Almond Bearing Acreage Crop Years 2005 through 2014

Bearing Acreage % Change from previous year

Source: USDA Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Region (NASS/PR) 2013 Acreage Report

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Research: Irrigation & Nutrient Management

Current Research: Defining a Central Valley Almond Water Needs/Yield Production Function Develop/fine tune

•  Regional Evapotranspiration (ETs) •  % canopy ETs •  ROI for high-priced water: Water applied vs.

production increase •  Seeking tree water status measures that

don’t involve taking leaf samples •  Seeking to develop irrigation systems that

are account for spatial variability better.

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Bearing Acreage Increasing, More Efficient Production

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Bea

ring

Acr

es

Prod

uctio

n (m

illio

ns)

Production (Million Pounds) Bearing Acres

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Average Yield/A (Lbs.)

•  Almond growers now use 33% less water per pound of almonds produced due to shifts in management practices.

•  70% of almond orchards use micro-irrigation systems.

•  83% of growers use advanced technologies to schedule their irrigation based on the tree needs, and soil or weather conditions

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Drought Impacts on Almonds:

- 200,000-250,000 A in zero allocation (West Side)

-  Increased use of ground water -  Buying water where possible,

VERY HIGH PRICE -  Fallowing annual crops -  Taking older, less productive

orchards out of production. -  Apply % of water available as % of

Etc over season -  Yields

-  2014: currently on track to be similar to last year

-  2015? Very stressed trees do not produce buds. So no bloom = no nuts next year.

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Drought Impacts on Yield

Table 3. Nut weight, # nuts/tree, yield and statistical results for 2009 and 2010 (non-pruned trees only).

2009

Irrigation Nut weight Nuts / tree Yield

(g/nut) (% control) (#) (% control) (lbs/ac) (% control)

40 1.16 a 100 7649 100 2441.3 100

10 1.03 a 90 6807 89 1892.2 78

5 0.96 a 84 7804 102 2021.8 83

0 0.71 b 62 5235 68 1030.0 42

2010

Irrigation Nut weight Nuts / tree Yield

(g/nut) (% control) (#) (% control) (lbs/ac) (% control)

40 1.38 100 8148 a 100 2257.7 a 100

10 1.32 96 4404 ab 54 1349.3 ab 53

5 1.43 104 3217ab 40 1006.4 b 39

0 1.32 96 852 b 10 319.4 b 12

Ken Shackel et al, Drought Survival Strategies for

Established Almond Orchards. ABC Annual Report 2011

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Where do longer term weather and climate predictions fit in?

Weather variability is a part of a grower’s business. Growers would like better tools to help predict irrigation needs,

both on a daily/weekly level as well for the season. Harder to see how they will use longer term predictions in their

planning. Main issue is how to communicate changes in variability or trends

as variability is the nature of their business