california dreamin’ rational and irrational exuberance · our bubble model 2 • preliminaries...
TRANSCRIPT
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California Dreamin’Rational and Irrational Exuberance
in Property Markets
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Bubbles and the Winner’s CurseSnap, Crackle and Pop:
How to Win in a Bubble Economy
Randall ZislerManaging Director and Chief Investment Officer
Griffin & Company, LLCA Real Estate Investment Bank
Beverly Hills
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Outline
• What is a bubble?• What causes bubbles?• How can investors minimize the likelihood of
overpaying during a bubble—winner’s curse?• What are the warning signs a bubble exists?• How can investors profit during a bubble?
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“Thank You!” to Our Contributors
“Irrational Exuberance”
HeitmanA Real Estate Investment Management Firm
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Popular Bubble Definitions• Irrational exuberance• Speculative mania• Self fulfilling
prophecy• Vicious cycles• Speculative orgy• Markets out of line• Analytic approach
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What is a Bubble?
• A psychological state of irrational exuberance and investor enthusiasm
• Spreads like contagion• A cascade of amplifying stories• Price and volume increases• Doubts about fundamentals crumble in the
face of investor envy
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Famous Bubbles
Japanese stock market in the 1980’s
Palm stock and the NASDAQ run-up
U.S. real estate in the 1980’s
Stock market and DOT COM 1994 through 2000
Real estate 2004 - ?
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South Sea Bubble
0
100
200
300
400
500600
700
800
900
1000
1720.0 1720.5 1721.0
£ pe
r ful
ly p
aid
shar
e
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South Sea Bubble
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TulipmaniaOne of the early experiments in
financial engineering
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1634 1635 1636 1637
Pric
e of
Gou
da tu
lip b
ulbs
, Gui
lder
s
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Teapot Dome Scandal
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Bubbles are easier to detect with the benefit of
20/20 hindsight!
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What is Not a Bubble?• A rapid price increase • Relative prices can change due to
regulatory or tax changes, cartel-induced oil price hikes
• Have fundamentals changed?• Are expectations of future price increases
sustaining the market?• Are these expectations creating anxieties?• Is there sufficient confidence in diverse
expectations to generate trades
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Housing and Apartments are the Most Bubbly
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Single Family Homes and Condominiums are Bubbly
• Disentangling bubbles from fundamentals is difficult.• One comparable period of home price increases is
the period just following WW II.• Smart money does not typically speculate in homes• Real, quality-adjusted, housing prices have not
appreciated significantly over the decades.• Stock and housing market booms have a two year
lagged correlation. • Booms are contagious across asset classes.
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Bubbles—Macro Correlates• Prices are significantly
above trend• High prices in relation
to income—cap rates have fallen rapidly
• High price volatility• Trading volume is high
and rising• Increase in frequency
of portfolio and mega deals
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Bubbles-Micro Correlates
• Winner’s curse and participant irrationality• More bidders increase probability of
overestimating the value of an asset• Increased bid dispersion• Bubbles do not typically crash if there is a lot of
market noise and investors are not synchronized
• Many positive feedback channels, not all evident to investors
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Positive Feedback• Difficult to identify precipitating factors or
specify causality; feedback can last for years
• Feedback occurs in response not to a sudden price increase but a consistent pattern of price increases– Price-to-GDP-to-price– Price-to-price– Wealth-to-price– Price-to-corporate earnings-to-price
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Not all bubbles are bad!
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Stock Market Interlinkages• Stock markets can play a significant stabilizing or
destabilizing role• Where countries have different financial risk,
interlinkage reduces dispersion of asset prices.• Where countries differ to asset payoff risk, linkage
can increase price dispersion—high prices are higher and low prices are lower
• Financial liberalization, short-run inelastic supply of assets, and absence of short sales.
• Central bank must make difficult choices: Stabilize exchange rates? Consumer prices? or asset prices?
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Agency Problems• Intermediaries with agency problems buy
most real estate.• Leverage accentuates the agency problem.• Borrowers increase payoffs in good times
by shifting risk to lenders in bad times.• In the aggregate, this risk shifting can bid
up prices.• The riskier the asset, the more risk to be
shifted and the larger the bubble.
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And now for some fun technical stuff!
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Our Bubble Model 1
• Assumptions– High trading costs– Short sales not allowed or practically too costly– Heterogeneous and asymmetric information– Investors differ in assessment of fundamentals– Inelastic supply of real estate assets– Many risk neutral agents
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Our Bubble Model 2
• Preliminaries and predictions– Coexistence of high prices, high trading volume, and high
volatility– Asset prices may exceed fundamental value when agents
disagree or when short selling is not possible– Agents disagree regarding probability distribution of
expected income– Information signaled through noisy “indicators”; each class
of bidders has a special “indicator”– Agents are overconfident in the accuracy of their indicators.– Thus, there are different forecasts.– The noisier the information, the more trades.
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Our Bubble Model 3
• The Bubble– Asset owners have an option to sell the asset in the
future to agents in other bidding groups– Determining the option value is an optimal stopping
problem– Value of option (the “bubble”) is difference between
demand price and fundamental value– Fluctuations in bubble value contributes to priced
volatility– Bubble is consequence of divergence of opinions by
overestimation of informativeness of distinct indicators
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Our Bubble Model 4
• When to sell?– The “critical amount”, K, is the amount by which the price
must exceed the agent’s valuation– K determines turnover and sales volume– K is zero when there are no trading costs, C– Low C increases the size of the bubble and volatility– As C increases, K increases and the expected profit from
each trade increases.– Forecasts oscillate and information flows, thus
generating trades– The greater the overconfidence of heterogeneous beliefs,
the greater is the size of the bubble
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Let’s check the evidence!
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REIT Trading Volume is Up
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
All
REI
Ts, a
vera
ge d
aily
trad
ing
volu
me,
m
illio
ns o
f dol
lars
VolumePredicted
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NCREIF Cap Rates Have Fallen
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
923 943 963 983 003 023 043
Year-Quarter
Cap
Rat
es
Cap Rates - All Sold Props
Current Value (Appraisal) Cap Rates
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Total and Apartment REIT and Returns
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Ret
urn
stan
dard
dev
iatio
n, m
onth
ly, % all stdev
apt stdev
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Ret
urn
mov
ing
aver
age,
mon
thly
, %
all movapt mov
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NCREIF Regional Cap Rates
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03Year-Quarter
Cap
Rat
esEast WestSouth Midwest
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Total Private NCREIF Sales
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
78 82 86 90 94 98 02
Year
Prop
ertie
s
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Mar
ket V
alue
(mill
ions
)
# of Properties
Market Value
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If you win the bid, are you losing the game!
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Winner’s Curse—What is it?• People often overestimate the precision of their
knowledge; Illusion of knowledge; experts’ estimates will vary substantially
• Asymmetric bargaining and incomplete information• Winning the bidding is a Pyrrhic victory• Each player estimates the value of the asset.• If bidders estimates are unbiased, then the highest
bidder almost certainly overestimates the value, and, on average, overpays
• Perceptive, rationale bidders place a bid below their estimate of value
• The greater the “winner’s curse”, the greater the number of bidders, the uncertainty of the price of the asset, and the dispersion between the highest and lowest bid.
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Avoiding the Winner’s Curse• Rationality is an assumption, not a demonstrated
fact!• The “curse” is about cognitive illusion and systematic
error, especially in bubble economies• Hubris hypothesis and takeovers• Collusion (which is probably illegal) or sharing
knowledge with competitors to reduce their bids• Bidding lower than one’s estimate of value, and being
prepared to lose more auctions and to avoid loses.• Avoiding auctions and focusing on off-market
transactions.
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Focus on California
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California Apartment and Total Cap Rates and Trading Volume
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
cap
rate
, %
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
Tota
l vol
ume
sale
s, $
bill
ions
CA apartment average cap rate
CA apartment volume, $
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
cap
rate
, %
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
Tota
l vol
ume
sale
s, $
bill
ions
CA office average cap rate
CA office volume, $
‘2005 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.‘2005 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
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U.S. Apartment and Total Cap Rates and Trading Volume
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
cap
rate
, %
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
Tota
l vol
ume
sale
s, $
bill
ions
US apartment average caprate
US apartment volume, $
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ave
rage
cap
rate
, %
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
Tota
l vol
ume
sale
s, $
bill
ions
US office average cap rate
US office volume, $
‘2005 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. ‘2005 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Is Real Estate in a Bubble?
• Probably, we observe high prices, increased volatility, high trading volume, and increased dispersion of bids
• Maybe we are witnessing a massive institutional portfolio shift toward real estate
• The bubble component varies by market, asset type, and location
• Single family homes and apartments/condos are the most bubbly
• How will the bubble break?• What are the likely mechanisms of a burst bubble?
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Will the bubble break?
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Profiting During Bubbles 1
• Brokers (paid based on trading volume):– Punctured bubbles are Darwinian herd-thinners– Agents benefit from volatility and heterogeneity– Break up portfolio if assets have low correlation– Otherwise, reap potential portfolio premium– Research as “story telling” generates trades and
reinforces environment of heterogeneous views
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Profiting During Bubbles 2• Agents (paid based on asset performance)
– Big question: Bubble or change in fundamentals?– Answer suggests different strategies– Avoid auctions– Focus on non-bubble markets– Build strengths that permit preemptive moves– Specialize in controlling certain kinds of systematic risks– Pursue economies of scale– Pay for value-added research that is not a “sophisticated
front end” for the sales or marketing department
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My beach has the BEST bubbles!