california residential cfl market status cpuc – energy division hearing room a june 16, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
California Residential CFL Market Status
CPUC – Energy DivisionHearing Room AJune 16, 2009
2
Overview
Awareness and Use of CFLs in California CFL sales
– Statewide sales– ULP shipments
CFL price Residential CFL penetration and market potential Lessons learned in other regions
3
Awareness and Use of CFLs
96% of residential customers in CA IOU territories are aware of CFLs– 92% in comparison
area 79% of aware
consumers in CA report that they currently use CFLs– 66% in comparison
area
CFL Awareness, 2008
CFL Use, 2008
* Difference from CA results is statistically significant at the 90% level of confidence. Source (both figures): CFL Market Effects Final Interim Report, 2009.
95.8%
91.6%*
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2008
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
California Comparison Area
California
79%
6%
10%
5%
Comparison Area
5%
17%
13%
65%*
Unfamiliar
Not tried
Previous User
Current User
4
21%
3%
5%
12%
24%
35%
Grocery
Discount
Drug
Hardware
Home Improvement
Mass Merchandise/Membership ClubOther
2%
15%
39%
19%7%
8%
10%
CA Total CFL Sales v. ULP Shipments
Greater proportion of ULP shipments through non-big box than total CA sales
* Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory. Sources: CFL Market Effects Interim Report, 2009 and IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data.
CA CFL Sales
by Retail Channel, 2007
ULP Shipments
by Retail Channel, 2007 *
CA CFL Sales and ULP Shipments, 2007
0
20
40
60
Total StatewideCFL sales
ULPShipments
Nu
mb
er
of
CF
Ls
(M
illio
ns
)
*
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
Total 2007 CFL sales totaled approximately 55.6 million– ULP shipments represented ~75% of
total 2007 CFL sales in CA
5
ULP CFL Shipments
* Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.Source: IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data.
Upstream Lighting Program CFL Shipments by IOU and Retail Channel, 2006-2008
38%44%
32%40%
16%
25%
14%
19%
9%
4%
11%
7%10%
4%
4%
7%
8%8%
13%
8%
7%5%
9%
7%
10% 8%16%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PG&E * SCE SDG&E All IOUs
Other
Ltg & Electronics
Membership Club
Mass Merchandise
Home Improvement
Hardware
Drug
Discount
Grocery
74% of 2006-2008 ULP shipments went to non-big box stores (grocery, discount, drug, small hardware)
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
6
ULP CFL Styles
ULP CFL Styles by IOU, 2006-2008 ULP Specialty CFL Styles by IOU, 2006-2008
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
* Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.Source: IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data.
86%
95%85%
0
10
20
30
40
50
PG&E SCE SDG&E
Nu
mb
er o
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FL
s (M
illio
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Specialty
Bare Spiral
*
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
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PG&E SCE SDG&E
Nu
mb
er o
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FL
s (M
illio
ns)
Three-way
Reflector
Globe
Dimmable
A-lamp
*
11% of 2006-2008 ULP shipments were specialty CFLs – PG&E/SDG&E had greater focus on specialty CFLs than SCE– PG&E provided incentives for the largest volume of specialty CFLs (~6.5M)
Three-way, reflector, and globes comprised the majority of ULP specialty CFL incentives
7
California CFL Price
Source : Preliminary Results from the 2008 California Lighting Retailer Shelf Inventory conducted by KEMA, Inc. as part of the Impact Analysis of the CA IOUs’ 2006-2008 Residential Retrofit Programs. DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND UNWEIGHTED AND SHOULD NOT BE CITED IN OTHER CONTEXTS.
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
Non-IOU IOU-
Discounted All CFLs Non-IOU IOU-
Discounted All CFLs
Basic Bare Spiral 3.07$ 1.09$ 2.79$ 6,739 1,075 7,814
Specialty Lamps
A-lamp 4.06$ 1.71$ 3.78$ 607 81 688Reflector 7.14$ 3.25$ 6.72$ 741 88 829Globe 4.93$ 1.06$ 4.29$ 330 65 395Torpedo/Bullet 4.51$ 1.07$ 3.98$ 208 38 246Dimmable or Three-way Spiral 9.46$ 1.87$ 8.85$ 216 19 235Bug Light 6.57$ 3.29$ 6.49$ 81 2 83Tube-style/U-shaped 7.58$ 1.19$ 6.85$ 31 4 35Circline 12.59$ n/a 12.59$ 5 0 5Other 7.80$ 0.95$ 7.48$ 41 2 43
All Specialty 5.98$ 1.95$ 5.51$ 2,260 299 2,559
All CFLs 3.80$ 1.27$ 3.46$ 8,999 1,374 10,373
Style
Price Number of Lamps
Average CA Prices for IOU-Discounted CFLs, Non-IOU CFLs, and All CFLs by Style, 2008
Incremental cost for non-IOU vs. IOU-discounted lamps– $2.00 for basic bare spirals – Roughly $2.50-$7.50 for specialty lamps
Reflector CFLs among most abundant and most expensive specialty styles
8
California CFL Price
* “Basic Bare Spiral” refers to single-wattage non-dimmable bare spiral CFLs.Source : Preliminary Results from the 2008 California Lighting Retailer Shelf Inventory conducted by KEMA, Inc. as part of the Impact Analysis of the CA IOUs’ 2006-2008 Residential Retrofit Programs. DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND UNWEIGHTED AND SHOULD NOT BE CITED IN OTHER CONTEXTS.
Average prices for IOU-discounted CFLs are similar to prices for comparable incandescent styles– For basic bare spirals and also for specialty lamps
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
$0.84
$2.70
$1.26$1.09
$1.95
$1.27
$3.07
$5.98
$3.80
$2.79
$5.51
$3.46
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Basic Bare Spiral* / IncandescentA-Lamp
Specialty Lamp All Lamp Styles
Pri
ce
Pe
r L
am
p
Incandescent Lamp IOU-Discounted CFL Non-IOU CFL All CFLs
Average CA Prices for Incandescent Lamps, IOU-Discounted CFLs, Non-IOU CFLs, and All CFLs, 2008
9
California Residential CFL Penetration
91% of CA homes in IOU territories have 1 or more CFLs installed Average number of lamps per home is 48.7 Average number of CFLs per home is
– 10.3 among all homes – 11.3 among homes that have 1 or more CFLs installed
26%
20%
13%9%
32%
Zero
1 to 5
6 to 10
11 to 20
20+
Source : Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
Percent of California IOU-Territory Homes by Number of CFLs Installed, 2008
10
California Residential CFL Penetration
Approximately 21% of sockets are currently using CFLs– 74% of these CFLs are spirals
– 90% are MSB
– 7% are on controls other than on/off switch 3% of all CFLs are in dimmable
sockets 4% of all CFLs are in 3-way
sockets
Sockets with CFLs by Lamp Shape, Base Type and Control Type, 2008
n = 6,583 sockets.Source: Preliminary Results from the
CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
Lamp Shape
Percent of CFLs
Spiral 73.5%Reflector 7.1%A-lamp 2.7%Globe 3.8%Decorative 1.0%Other shapes 11.9%
Base Type
Percent of CFLs
MSB 90.3%SSB 1.3%Pin-base 8.4%
Control Type
Percent of CFLs
On/Off 93.1%Dimmer or 3-way 6.9%
11
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential Sockets can be characterized by energy savings
potential– “Higher potential” sockets are in locations with relatively
high hours of use and/or relatively low on/off switch rates– “Lower potential” sockets are in locations with relatively
low hours of use and/or relatively high on/off switch rates Note that for the purposes of this analysis, hours of use are based
on 2005 CA CFL Metering Study (metering results not yet available from current study)
Final characterizations will reveal lamp style/control combinations with greatest/least remaining residential market potential
12
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential
53 million MSB “high use sockets” available for CFL installation– Such sockets currently use non-CFL
a-lamps with on/off controls
– 145M total non-CFL MSB a-lamps in use
42 million MSB spiral CFLs (“basic CFLs”) are in storage in CA households – If installed in highest use locations,
these could theoretically achieve most of the remaining energy savings for a-lamps
2008 Remaining CA (non-CFL) MSB A-Lamp Sockets with On/Off Controls
by Savings Potential
Source: Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).Higher/lower characterizations based on HOU from
2005 CFL Metering Study.
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
0
20
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60
80
100
120
140
160
MSB A-lamp (On/OffControls)
Nu
mb
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Av
aila
ble
MS
B S
oc
ke
ts (
Mill
ion
s)
LowerSavingsPotential
HigherSavingsPotential
13Source: Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
Reflector and globe style MSB lamps with on/off controls represent the greatest potential among specialty lamps– Higher/lower savings potential designations below are a
placeholder for final data from current metering study
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential
2008 Remaining (non-CFL) MSB Sockets by Lamp Type, Control Type, and Savings Potential
0
5
10
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20
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A-l
am
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flect
or
Glo
be
De
cora
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A-l
am
p
Re
flect
or
Glo
be
De
cora
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A-l
am
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Re
flect
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Glo
be
De
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tive
On/Off Controls Dimmable Three-Way
Mill
ion
s o
f A
va
ilab
le M
SB
So
ck
ets Lower Savings Potential
Higher Savings Potential
14
2008 Remaining (non-CFL) SSB Sockets by Lamp Type, Control Type, and Savings Potential
Draft Data DO NOT CITE
Source: Preliminary Results from the CPUC’s Residential Lighting Metering Study (KEMA, 2009).
CA Residential Lighting Market Potential Small screw-base (SSB) lamps represent 10% of total residential sockets Decorative lamps with on/off controls represent greatest remaining SSB
potential– Higher/lower savings potential designations below are a placeholder for final data from
current metering study
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
A-l
am
p
Re
flect
or
Glo
be
De
cora
tive
A-l
am
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Re
flect
or
Glo
be
De
cora
tive
A-l
am
p
Re
flect
or
Glo
be
De
cora
tive
On/Off Controls Dimmable Three-Way
Nu
mb
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Av
aila
ble
SS
B S
oc
ke
ts (
Mill
ion
s)
Lower Savings Potential
Higher Savings Potential
15
The Northwest CFL Market The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) began
promoting CFLs in 1997– Began offering strategic/targeted upstream CFL incentives in 2005
Excluded large home improvement (DIY) stores and wholesale clubs starting in 2006
NEEA reached its 2009 CFL sales goal at the end of 2007 (10.8M CFLs/year)– Withdrew CFL incentives from the Northwest market in early 2008
Other Northwest energy-efficiency program sponsors (e.g., BPA) continued CFL incentives in 2008 – Roughly half of 2008 incentives in the Northwest were for specialty
lamps
16
California vs. Northwest
California and the Northwest have had similar CFL promotion strategies– Began market support in big box stores, transitioned
focus toward grocery/drug/small hardware
– Began market support for basic bare spirals and introduced specialty CFLs later
California and Northwest CFL markets and incentive strategies differ in at least 3 ways– CFL sales volume
– CFL retail channels
– CFL price
17
California vs. Northwest CFL Sales Annual California CFL sales are double Northwest sales Incentive CFL sales in California comprise a far greater
proportion of total sales than in the Northwest– ULP incentive CFLs comprised 73% of total California CFL sales in
2007
– Incentive CFLs comprised 27% of Northwest CFL sales in 2007 NEEA incentive CFL sales comprised 11% of 2007 Northwest CFL sales
* Awaiting final data on shipments within PG&E service territory.California Sources: (1) CFL Market Effects Final Interim Report, 2009; (2) IOU 2006-2008 ULP tracking data. Northwest Source: Fluid Market Strategies, 2009. Q4 2008 “Widget” CFL Sales Data Report. Prepared for NEEA. March 6, 2009.
Estimated Incentive and Non-Incentive CFL Sales in California and the Northwest, 2007
Draft CA DataDO NOT CITE
73%
27%
27%
73%
0
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60
California * NorthwestN
um
be
r o
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FL
s (
Mill
ion
s)
Non-Incentive Sales
Incentive Sales
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10%
8%
7%19%
39%
15%
Grocery
Discount
Drug
Small Hardware
Home Improvement
Mass Merchandise/Membership ClubOther
48%
13%
12%
8%
19%
21%
3%
5%
12%
24%
35%
Grocery
Discount
Drug
Small Hardware
Home Improvement
Mass Merchandise/Membership ClubOther
52%
3% 3%
23%
19%
California vs. Northwest CFL Retail Channels Non big box stores account for a
greater proportion of overall CFL sales in California than in the Northwest– 44% in California versus 30% in
Northwest
Same applies to incentive CFL sales– 73% non big box in California, 33% in
Northwest
CA Source: CFL Market Effects Interim Report, 2009.Northwest Source: Fluid Market Strategies, 2009.
California CFL Sales
by Retail Channel, 2007
California ULP Shipments
by Retail Channel, 2007
Northwest CFL Sales
by Retail Channel, 2007
Northwest Promotional CFL Sales by Retail Channel, 2007
19
California vs. Northwest CFL Price CFL prices are lower in California than in the
Northwest– Especially given that ULP CFL sales account for majority of
total CA CFL sales
$1.09
$1.95
$1.27
$3.07
$5.98
$3.80
$2.79
$5.51
$3.46$4.06
$6.36
$4.29
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Basic Bare Spiral CFLs Specialty CFLs All CFLs
Pri
ce
Pe
r L
am
p
California - IOU discounted California - Non-IOU California - All CFLs Northwest - All CFLs
CA Source : Preliminary Results from the 2008 California Lighting Retailer Shelf Inventory conducted by KEMA, Inc. as part of the Impact Analysis of the CA IOUs’ 2006-2008 Residential Retrofit Programs. DATA IS PRELIMINARY AND UNWEIGHTED AND SHOULD NOT BE CITED IN OTHER CONTEXTS. NW Source: KEMA, 2009. 2008-2009 CFL Tracking Study Draft Report. Prepared for NEEA.
Average California and Northwest CFL Prices by Style, 2008
Draft CA DataDO NOT CITE
20
Summary: California vs. Northwest Broadly, California and Northwest have utilized similar incentive
strategies– However, there are key differences between the California and the
Northwest Incentive sales comprise a much larger proportion of total CFL sales
in California than in Northwest California incentives provide greater support to non big box channels
in California than in the Northwest CFL prices in California are considerably lower than in the Northwest
No noteworthy changes Northwest CFL market after NEEA withdrew incentives in early 2008– Other entities provided CFL incentives instead
– Incentives shifted toward specialty lamps
21
Connecticut
Department of Public Utility Control (DPUC) has directed CT utilities to: – Scale back incentives for “common” (basic bare
spiral) CFLs – Shift incentives toward specialty bulbs– Increase promotion of CFLs in retail outlets where
sales trail those of big box retailers Pay special attention to grocery and drug stores
– Eliminate upstream incentives for common CFLs by 2010
Source: Decision: State of Connecticut Department of Public Utility Control Docket No. 08-10-03.DPUC Review of the Connecticut Light and Power Company’s and the United Illuminating Company’s Conservation and Load Management for the Year 2009. Pages 14-15. May 7, 2009.
Thank you for your attention.
Jenna Canseco Senior Consultant KEMA, Inc. 510-891-0446 x44121