California’s Experience:Air Quality Successes

and Challenges

Bart Croes, P.E.Chief, Air Quality Data Branch

California Air Resources Board(CARB)

April 11, 2000

Air Resources Board

California Environmental Protection Agency

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Mic

rogra

ms/

Cubic

Mete

r

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Part

s Per

Million

Maximum Monthly Mean Lead (ug/m3) Maximum 24-Hour Mean SO2 (ppm)

Peak 1-Hour Mean NO2 (ppm)

Lead, SOLead, SO22, and NO, and NO22 Air Air QualityQuality

in Los Angelesin Los Angeles

3-Year Means Assigned to Last Year

(PM(PM1010=1988-98, Air Toxics=1991-96, GSP=1980-96)=1988-98, Air Toxics=1991-96, GSP=1980-96)

Change in Air Quality and Change in Air Quality and GrowthGrowth

1980 to 19981980 to 1998

-50 -47 -30

+41 +81 +75

-60

-40

-20

0

20

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60

80

Perc

ent

Change

Ozone (1-Hour)

PM10(Annual)

Air Toxics(Cancer Risk)

Population Vehicle MilesTraveled

Gross State Product (1996 $)

Los Angeles - NOx Emission TrendsLos Angeles - NOx Emission Trends

0

400

800

1200

1600

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s p

er d

ay)

Industrial Cars Diesel Trucks Non-Road Mobile

Emissions Goal

Emissions Today

Los Angeles - ROG Emission Los Angeles - ROG Emission TrendsTrends

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2000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Em

issi

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s (t

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ay)

Industrial Cars Diesel Trucks Non-Road Mobile

Emissions Today

Emissions Goal

CARB Mobile Source and Fuels CARB Mobile Source and Fuels Regulations and ProgramsRegulations and Programs

• New engine emission standards New engine emission standards

• In-use durability requirementsIn-use durability requirements

• Retrofit existing enginesRetrofit existing engines

• Cleaner fuels: gasoline, diesel, natural Cleaner fuels: gasoline, diesel, natural gasgas

• Promote national and international Promote national and international standards for trucks, ships, and aircraftstandards for trucks, ships, and aircraft

• New technologies for the futureNew technologies for the future

CARB Emission Standards for CarsCARB Emission Standards for Cars

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ROG

NOx

Exh

aust

g/m

ile

Over 99% Reduction from Uncontrolled

Battery Electric VehiclesBattery Electric Vehicles

California Fuel Cell California Fuel Cell PartnershipPartnership

CARB NOx Emission Standards for On-Road Trucks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 g/hp-hr

1990

1991

1998

2004

1985

Possible Future Standards• NOx aftertreatment-based• 75-90% reduction •2007 goal

CARB PM Emission StandardsFor On-Road Trucks

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0.6

0.7 g/hp-hr

1988

1991

1994truck

bus

Possible Future Standards• PM trap-based• ~90% Reduction •2007 goal

Diesel PM and NOx Diesel PM and NOx ControlsControls

• Cleaner diesel fuelCleaner diesel fuel Very low sulfur enables after-treatment Very low sulfur enables after-treatment

• Exhaust after-treatmentExhaust after-treatment PM traps > 90% efficientPM traps > 90% efficient NOx catalysts 50-90% efficiency NOx catalysts 50-90% efficiency

potentialpotential

• Alternative fuels: natural gasAlternative fuels: natural gas

• New technologies: fuel cellsNew technologies: fuel cells

Cleaner Alternative-Fuel Cleaner Alternative-Fuel TrucksTrucks

Fuel Cell Bus

CARB Cleaner Fuels ProgramCARB Cleaner Fuels Program

• 1992: Eliminated lead from 1992: Eliminated lead from gasoline, limited vapor pressure, gasoline, limited vapor pressure, required oxygenates in winter to required oxygenates in winter to reduce carbon monoxidereduce carbon monoxide

• 1996: Introduced “cleaner-burning 1996: Introduced “cleaner-burning gasoline” to achieve maximum gasoline” to achieve maximum reductions in ozone and toxicsreductions in ozone and toxics

• 1999: Phase out MTBE by 2002, 1999: Phase out MTBE by 2002, reduce sulfur and benzene furtherreduce sulfur and benzene further

Cleaner Industrial SourcesCleaner Industrial Sources

• Best controls on new and existing Best controls on new and existing sourcessources

• Controls for NOx, ROG, SOx, CO, toxicsControls for NOx, ROG, SOx, CO, toxics

• Diesel particulate matter controls to Diesel particulate matter controls to reduce toxics risk reduce toxics risk

Our Goal Is Clean Air Our Goal Is Clean Air EverydayEveryday

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CaliforniaCaliforniaAir Air

MonitoringMonitoringSitesSites

California ROG Emissions With California ROG Emissions With Existing ProgramsExisting Programs

StationarySource

36%

OtherMobile

2%

1990 2010

Gasoline50%

Diesel12%

StationarySource

61%

Other Mobile9%

Gasoline17%

Diesel14%

3630 TPD3630 TPD 2390 TPD2390 TPD

California NOx Emissions With California NOx Emissions With Existing ProgramsExisting Programs

StationarySource

22%

OtherMobile

7%

1990 2010Gasoline

37%

Diesel33%

StationarySource

23%

OtherMobile

8%

Gasoline24%

Diesel45%

3490 TPD3490 TPD 2800 TPD2800 TPD

Motor Vehicle Control ProgramsMotor Vehicle Control Programs

HC NOx CO HCHO EvapModel Year (g/mile) (g/mile) (g/mile) (g/mile) (g/test)

Pre-Control 10.6 4.1 84 471966 6.3 511970 4.1 34 61971 4.1 4 34 61972 2.9 3 34 21974 2.9 2 34 21975 0.9 2 9 21977 0.41 1.5 9 21978 0.41 1.5 9 61980 0.39 1.0 9 21981 0.39 0.7 7 21983 0.39 0.4 7 21993 0.250 0.4 3.4 2TLEV (Transitional) 0.125 0.4 3.4 0.015 2LEV (Low) 0.075 0.2 3.4 0.015 2ULEV (Ultra Low) 0.040 0.2 1.7 0.008 2ZEV (Zero) 0.000 0.0 0.0 0.000 2

Motor Vehicle Fuel ProgramsMotor Vehicle Fuel Programs YearAdopted Gasoline Diesel Alternative Fuels

1971 Reid Vapor PressureBromine Number

1975 SulfurManganese/Phosphorus

1976 Lead 1981 Sulfur (SoCAB) 1982 Lead 1988 Sulfur/Arom. HC 1990 Phase 1 Reformulated 1991 Wintertime Oxygenated

Phase 2 Reformulated 1992 Commercial and

Certification Spec. 1994 Phase 2 Predictive Model

Status of California Air Status of California Air QualityQuality

• Attainment (or Close)Attainment (or Close) LeadLead SulfatesSulfates NONO22, carbon monoxide, carbon monoxide

• NonattainmentNonattainment PM (30% reduction PM (30% reduction

achieved)achieved) Ozone (50% reduction)Ozone (50% reduction) Toxics (40-70% reduction)Toxics (40-70% reduction)

Peak 8-Hour CO, Population, andPeak 8-Hour CO, Population, andVehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

- 26%

+39% +78%

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

Perc

ent

Chan

ge 1

980-

1997

Peak 8-Hr CO Population VMT

Peak Ozone, Population, andPeak Ozone, Population, andVehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

- 49%

+39% +78%

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

Perc

ent

Chan

ge 1

980-

1997

Peak Ozone Population VMT

Ozone Air QualityOzone Air QualityIn Los AngelesIn Los Angeles

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Peak

Ind

icat

or (

ppm

) Max Value

NationalStandard

State Standard

National Standard

Ozone Exceedance DaysOzone Exceedance DaysIn Los AngelesIn Los Angeles

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State Exceedances

National Exceedances

Ozone Episode DaysOzone Episode DaysIn Los AngelesIn Los Angeles

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250

Stage 2

Stage 1

Ozone ExposureOzone ExposureIn Los AngelesIn Los Angeles

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5

10

15

ppm

-hrs

Abov

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tate

Sta

ndar

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Year 2000 Goal

Days Above 24-Hr PM10 Standard Days Above 24-Hr PM10 Standard In San FranciscoIn San Francisco

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Annual Geometric Mean PM10Annual Geometric Mean PM10In San FranciscoIn San Francisco

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Ann

ual G

eom

etri

c M

ean

(ug/

m3)

State Standard