california’s summer outlook and emerging electricity issues dave ashuckian, p.e., manager...

California’s Summer Outlook and Emerging Electricity Issues

Dave Ashuckian, P.E., ManagerElectricity Analysis Office

Irwindale Energy ForumFebruary 15, 2007

California Energy Commission 2Irwindale Energy Forum, February 15, 2007

Topics of this presentation

Preliminary look at the probability of meeting reserve margins in 2007.

A look at typical load profiles.

Review of CA ISO Emergencies called over the last 5 years and possible options for reducing frequency.

Policy issues regarding the use of Demand Response and Interruptibles.


Resource Adequacy Planning Conventions June July August September1 Existing Generation1 57,897 57,949 57,949 57,9492 Retirements (Known) 0 0 0 03 High Probability CA Additions 52 0 0 04 Net Interchange 2 13,118 13,118 13,118 13,1185 Total Net Generation (MW) 71,067 71,067 71,067 71,0676 1-in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Average)3 57,125 59,726 60,350 59,4197 Demand Response (DR) 524 524 524 5248 Interruptible/Curtailable Programs 1,603 1,603 1,603 1,6039 Planning Reserve4

28.1% 22.6% 21.3% 23.2%Expected Operating Conditions

Total Net Generation (MW) 71,067 71,067 71,067 71,06710 Outages (Average forced + planned) -2,695 -2,695 -2,695 -2,69511 Zonal Transmission Limitation5 -150 -150 -150 -15012 Expected Operating Generation with Outages/Limitations6 68,222 68,222 68,222 68,22213 Expected Operating Reserve Margin (1-in-2)7

24.7% 17.8% 16.3% 18.6%Adverse Conditions14 High Zonal Transmission Limitation -250 -250 -250 -25015 High Forced Outages (1 STD above average) -1,160 -1,160 -1,160 -1,16016 1-in-10 Summer Temperature Demand 60,573 63,330 63,992 63,00517 Adverse Scenario Reserve Margin7 12.9% 6.8% 5.4% 7.5%18 Adverse Scenario Reserve Margin w/DR and Interruptibles8 17.3% 11.0% 9.5% 11.7%19 Resources needed to meet 7.0% Reserve (W/DR & Interruptibles) 0 0 0 020 Surplus Resources Above 7.0% Reserve (W/DR & Interruptibles) 4,975 2,024 1,316 2,37221 Existing Aging Generation Without Capacity Contracts9

-2,070 -2,070 -2,070 -2,070 1 Dependable capacity by station includes 1,080 MW of stations located south of Miguel. 2 2006 estimate of the following Net Imports: DC imports 2,000 MW, SW imports 4,100 MW, NW imports (COI) 4,000 MW, LADWP Control Area and IID imports 3,018 MW. Imports with own reserves highlighted in bold. 3 Based on preliminary 2007 Demand Forecast for Resource Adequacy Proceedings. 4 Planning Reserve calculation ((Total Generation+Demand Response+Interruptibles)/Normal Demand)-1. 5 Based on CA ISO data. 6 Does not include Demand Response/Interruptible Programs because reserve margins are in excess of 5% (Stage 2). 7 Operating Reserve calculation ((Operating Generation-Imports with Reserves)/(Demand-Imports with Reserves))-1. See Footnote 2. 8 Demand Response and Interruptibles added to Operating Generation in Reserve Margin formula from Footnote 7. 9 Capacity is included in Line 1 and represents plants identified in 2004 CEC Staff Draft Report 100-04-005D Resource, Reliability and Environmental Concerns of Aging Power Plant Operations and Retirements 12/7/2006

2007 Monthly Outlook Statewide


2007 Preliminary Outlook - Probability of meeting reserve margins for CA ISO Control area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Operating Reserve Margin

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty

Existing plus proposed additional peakers, demand response, and interruptible load

Existing resources, demand response, and interruptible load

Sta

ge 3

Sta

ge 2

Sta

ge 1


2007 Preliminary Outlook - Probability of meeting reserve margins for CA ISO Control area

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Operating Reserve Margin

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty



80.5% (1-in-5)

Stage 1Demand

ResponseStage 2

Interruptibles

Stage 3Firm LoadShedding

84.1% (1-in-6)

94.7% (1-in-19)

90.2% (1-in-10)

99.7% (1-in-333)

98.7% (1-in-77)


2007 Preliminary Outlook - Probability of meeting reserve margins for SP 26

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Operating Reserve Margin

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty



52.7% (1-in-2.1)

Stage 1Demand

ResponseStage 2

Interruptibles

Stage 3Firm LoadShedding

59.5% (1-in-2.5)

78.2% (1-in-5)

62.6% (1-in-2.7)

99% (1-in-100)

93.3% (1-in-15)


Typical Peak Day Supply/Demand Profile

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Baseload Hydro Load-follow year-round Load-follow Summer Peakers


Annual Pattern of Daily Peak Demand

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Month

Meg

aWat

ts

Low points are weekends or holidays

Demand is volatile during summer

Demand is Volatile During Summer


Statewide Load Duration

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Hours

Load

, MW

ISOState


Summary of CA ISO load Curtailments over the Last 5 years

Two (2) Firm Load curtailments have occurred over last 5 years: March 8, 2004 (SP26). August 25, 2005 (SP26).

Eleven (11) Non-Firm (interruptible) load curtailments have occurred over the last 5 years: 2002 (3) - June 18 (SP 26), July 10, September 3. 2003 (0) - 2004 (4) - March 8 (SP26), May 3 (SP26), July 20 (SP26),

September 14 (Humboldt). 2005 (3) - July 21 (SP26), July 22 (SP26), August 25 (SP26). 2006 (1) - July 24.


0

1

2

3

4

5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Num

ber o

f Eve

nts

Total Events MOW greater than Curtailment Forecast Deviation greater than Curtailment

Summary of CA ISO load Curtailments over the Last 5 years


Some options to reduce frequency of emergencies:

More Generation Pros: - Increases reserve levels at all times. Cons: - Additional cost (at all hours).

- Likely to have minimal effect on reducing the number of emergencies.

More DR and Interruptibles Pros: - Provides greater reserve margins once emergency is called.

- Reduces need for additional generation resources. Cons: - Additional cost (at all hours) - Likely to have minimal effect on reducing the number of emergencies.

Change DR and Interruptible tariffs Pros: - Reduces probability of emergencies being called.

- Better Alignment of these resources with Loading Order. - Public is altered less, only for true emergencies. Cons: - May increase the frequency of using of these resources.

- May reduce customer participation.


Contact Information:

Dave AshuckianElectricity Analysis Office

California Energy Commission(916) 654-4602

Email: [email protected]

california’s summer outlook and emerging electricity issues dave ashuckian, p.e., manager...

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