Page 54 Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Spring/Summer 2010

Call for Papers

TOPIC TWO – INDIA and PAKISTAN: Papers are sought which emphasize the following four forces:1. How will India’s projected rise to global “great

power” be affected by domestic forces and fun-damental factors in India – for example, party politics; social, economic, and regional disparities; fissiparous tendencies; governance issues; domestic terrorism and insurgencies; and/or any others you believe to be important?

2. How will the India-China relationship evolve over the next decade, and what fundamental factors and trends will shape it? (Please consider global, domestic, and regional fundamental factors, includ-ing Pakistan – as well as bilateral dynamics.) How will the India-China relationship, as you envisage it, affect other key players in Asia? What could signifi-cantly change your forecast?

3. How do you assess Pakistan’s internal situation now, and what fundamental factors (internal and exter-nal) do you believe will shape Pakistan’s domestic prospects over the next f ive years? What might Pakistan look like five years from now? Your assess-ment and forecast should at least touch on political, social, security, and economic challenges facing Pakistan. (For our purposes, South Asia comprises India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives.)

Essays on one of two topics are invited as part of AFIO’s National Leadership Forum on Global Challenges annual Colby-Guth Paper Award. Each comes with a cash prize of $1,000.

DEADLINE: Essays should be submitted digitally via e-mail attachment by 30 June 2011 to afio@afio.com for consideration for the 2010-11 award. Awards will be announced each September 1st. Papers will be reviewed by a committee of senior intelligence and foreign policy experts each summer. Your essay needs to be original work, and the winning essay must be available for publication in AFIO’s Intelligencer Journal. It may be used elsewhere following publication. The copyright remains with the author. Authors may submit more than one essay if all are on topic.

LENGTH: Essays may run up to 5,000 words. Footnotes, sources, and reference citations are encouraged. Please also supply a one-paragraph summary, a digital picture of yourself, and a brief biographic profile in paragraph form. All material supplied will be treated as publishable, so do not send items which are not.

CLEARANCE: Authors are responsible for clearing with their Agency publication review boards any of the material they intend to submit before sending them to us. Charts and photographs are welcomed, but you need to confirm that you have obtained permission from the originators for use in your article. The AFIO Intelligencer Journal reaches more than 5,000 readers in the U.S. and abroad.

PURPOSE: The AFIO Colby-Guth Essay Contest, an endowed annual award, seeks to enhance the sophistication of the American public on global challenges to national interests, especially with respect to China and South Asia. Further questions can be sent by e-mail to afio@afio.com or by mail to the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO), 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 200, McLean, VA 22101. Voice: 703-790-0320. Fax: 703-991-1278.

TOPIC ONE – CHINA: Papers are sought which emphasize the following four forces:1. Friction between China’s central government and the

local provinces about policies involving foreign direct investment, treatment of protestors, and economic priorities in a period of challenge.

2. Leadership, plans, and actions within the Communist Party towards maintenance of its dominance within the country. Include changes within the structure of the Party, its governing bodies, and its role in national life, especially the problem of endemic corruption.

3. The role of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) in economic development. The extent of military mod-ernization and its applicability both for Taiwan and for U.S. Naval Forces in the South China Sea.

4. Issues involving the large number of people who have lost their jobs during the last year and who have had to leave the fast-growing cities on the coast. The dif-ficulty in living without a safety net, especially after benefiting from the rapid economic expansion of the last fifteen years, and the implications for govern-ment stability.

Each of the above forces requires careful examination of the factors that make that force an important one. Your essay should include what if any interrelationships they have. Essays should emphasize the reverberations that these forces could have along the fissures in reaching and impacting American interests in Asia and here at home in the next five years. In exceptional instances, essays which creatively discuss only one force, also may be considered for the cash prize of $1,000.