calpine march 2, 2004 harvard electricity policy group natural gas and electricity ron walter...
TRANSCRIPT
March 2, 2004
CALPINE
HARVARD ELECTRICITY POLICY GROUP
Natural Gas and Electricity
Ron WalterExecutive Vice President
R020415 2
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
CALPINE CORPORATION —THE FIRST 20 YEARS
Largest Independent Power Company in North America
Most Modern, Efficient Fleet of Power Generation Assets
87 Plants, 22,130 mw in Operation Today
Growing to Over 30,000 mw in 2006
Proved Gas Reserves – 1 tcf
Assets Managed by Calpine Energy Services
3.4% of U.S. Electrical Consumption
3% of U.S. Natural Gas Supply
R020415 3
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
CALPINE’S GROWING PORTFOLIO
Net Megawatts
Assumes No New Projects
3,3555,849
11,130
19,05022,130
25,680 27,09029,720
4,400
13,400
15,200
9,7507,860
4,040 2,630
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
In Operation In Construction
R020415 4
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
CALPINE’S POWER PORTFOLIO
In Operation
3
1
1
11
1
1
1
1
39
1
1
1
1
10
2
2
1
1
2
1
3
1
3
1
3
4
2
1
1
3
1
87
Under Construction
13
2
11
12 - New Projects1 - Expansion Projects
R020415 5
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
MOST EFFICIENT NORTH AMERICAN POWER GENERATION FLEET
Combined-Cycle Megawatts By Company
Operation Construction
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
FPL(1)
FPL(2)
Southern(2)
Xcel(2)
Southern(1)
Progress(1)
Exelon(2)
Calpine Duke(2)
Megawatts
(1) Regulated (2) Non-Regulated
Source: Company Data
R020415 6
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
Natural Gas Will Remainthe Fuel of Choice
for Power Generation
Natural Gas Will Remainthe Fuel of Choice
for Power Generation
R020415 7
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
THE PRICE OF NATURAL GASWILL BE REASONABLE
Responds Well to Market Forces
Spot Prices vs. Long-Term Prices
Expected Range of Prices
< $2.50/mmbtu – No New Investment
> $5.00/mmbtu – New Supply
Calpine Strategy to Manage Price Risk
R020415 8
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
THE SUPPLY OF NATURAL GASWILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
Proven Reserves Don’t Tell the Whole Story
2003 Report of Potential Gas Committee 1,311 Trillion Cubic Feet 65X Annual Production Rate 3.3% Increase in Supply From 2000
New Supply Eastern Canada Deep Gulf MacKenzie Delta Alaska LNG
LNG Large World Resource Base U.S. Deliverability
1 bcf 2003 4 bcf 2004 9 bcf 2007
R020415 9
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION FOR POWER GENERATION GROWING MODESTLY
New Natural Gas-Fired Plants are 40% More Efficient
During the Height of the New Power Plant AdditionsJanuary 2002 – January 2003
Megawatt-Hours Increased by 8%
Gas Consumption Increased by 2%
Less Efficient Plants are Being Displaced / Retired
R020415 10
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF NATURAL GAS
Lower Air Emissions 98.7% Less NOx Than Coal 99.9% Less SO2
65% Less CO2
100% Less Mercury
Lower Land Use
40% – 60% Lower Water Consumption
Reduces Global Warming
R020415 11
CALPINE
March 2, 2004
MARKET FORCES ARE BEST DRIVER FOR CHOICES ON FUEL USE
Government Intervention Has Not Been Successful
Nuclear Energy
Fuel Use Act
Clean Coal
Renewable Standards
Economics and Environmental ConsiderationsShould Shape Fuel Use
Supply and Price of Natural Gas Will Best beModerated by Market Forces