calstate university sacramento. april 11th 2002 the future for nuclear power richard wilson...
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CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
The Future for Nuclear Power
Richard Wilson
Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics
Harvard University
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
1939Nuclear fission discovered
(Hahn and Strassman)
Neutron chain reactionpossibility shown!
(Joliot, Halban and Kowarski)
Euphoria!The "nuclear age" had come!
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Only uranium 235 fissionable by slow neutrons
Only 3 suppliers Joachimstal, Czechoslovakia
Union Minière, CongoEldorado mining Co, Canada
The "nuclear age" was to be short lived!
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Fissionable elements: A = 4N - 1 (Bohr and Wheeler)
Plutonium 239 discovered(Seaborg, McMillan, Ramannod and Wahl)
Uranium 233 and others discoveredMcMillan and Seaborg - Nobel prize
"Fermi's dream!"
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
"Fermi's dream!”
Breeder reactor U 238 -> Pu 239 (100 times as much energy per gram)
High efficiency in fuel use Transuranic elements consumed
Waste fission productsT1/2 < 30 years
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Uranium Supplies Benedict 1971
Price Resource Cost Increase Total Electricity
$/lb tons LWR Breeder generated
U3O8 mills/kWh e Gwe x yr LWR Breeder
8 (base) 594,000 0.0 0.0 3,470 460,00010 940,000 0.1 0.0 5,500 720,000 15 1,450,000 0.4 0.0 8,480 1,120,00030 2,240,000 1.3 0.0 13,100 1,720,00050 10,000,000 2.5 0.0 58,300 7,700,000100 25,000,000 5.5 0.0 146,000 19,200,000
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
7Busbar Cost of Nuclear Energy 1971 and 2002
(Benedict 1971 from Virginia Power & Light)
Description 2002 1971
Unit investment cost of plant, dollars/kw. $1700 $255Annual capital charge rate per year 0.13 0.13kilowatt-hours generated per year per kw. capacity 7,446 5,256
Cost of electricity, mills/kwh.:Plant investment 29.7 6.31Operation and Maintenance 15.0 0.38Fuel 2.05 1.87
TOTAL 46.75 8.56
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Why has the construction cost gone up?
-demands by the public? Will public perception change?
- Heat exchanger failures?(Auto radiatiors a few% of cost per KW)
- increased real safety?(yet analysis is cheap)
-increased regulation?
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Problemsincrease in construction cost
(general)
Public perception:proliferation problems
Safety
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
The Ford Nightmare
Keeny et al. 1975 (Rossin 1998)
Theft or "Diversion"of enough to make a
BOMB!
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Improved Fuel AvailabilityFuel for 30 years
No incentive for explorationMore exploration -> more uranium
Improved “burnup” (1973) 20,000 MW days/ ton(1999) 40,000 MW days/ ton
(fewer fuel outages)
This brings cost down
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
1972 CONSTRUCTION COST
Maine Yankee $180 million$200 per MWe
Inflation Corr. $600 per MWh
OPERATING COST
Connecticut Yankee <0.4 cents/kWhe Yankee Rowe <0.9 cents/kWhe
Benedict estimate 0.3 cents/kWhInflation corrected: 1 cent/kWhe
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
1998 operating cost
1.4 cents/kWhe (S.Texas)1.5 cents/kWhe (Seabrook)
1.7 cents/kWhe (Palo Verde)1.9 cents/kWhe (Av.USA) (McKoy)
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
1998 construction cost
$1,690 per MWe(GE reactor in Taiwan)
four cents per kWhe
MUCH higher than $600/MWe
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
DEMAND FOR ENERGY1970
Demand increasing(particularly electricity)
electricity use X 2 every 9 yrs.President Kennedy advocated
cheap energy oil and gas prices were dropping
politically and morally acceptable to "spend" energy
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
PUBLIC PERCEPTION CHANGES
1973 Arab oil embargo
1979 Iraq- Iran war
Politically correct to
"conserve energy"
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
INCREASING FOSSIL FUEL1850 coal will run out in 30 years!1912 UK control of Anglo-Iranian
1947 UK electricity rationing 1962 (King Hubbert) - 90% of oil discovered
(in the USA)
1978 (Vienna) UK Cabinet MinisterN. Sea oil < 1 million bbl/day
(all gone in 20 years - today)
1999 N. Sea 4 million bbl/day
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
GAS
(1973) comes only with oil(1999) gas more plentiful
EFFICIENCY(1999) Combined cycle X 2
Less greenhouse gases Few particulates
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
UNDERSTANDING HISTORY
“He who does not understand history is condemned to repeat it”
Why did we dismantle FERMI I?WHY did Rickover choose LWR not LMR?
Why were other reactor types rejected?(HTGR, Pebble bed, etc.)
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
LWRFUEL USE IMPROVEMENTS
(1973) 20,000 MW days/ ton(1999) 40,000 MW days/ ton
(fewer fuel outages)
This SHOULD bring cost down
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
1984NAS
(Energy Engineering Board)
proposed acost study
OPPOSED by EPRIWHY?
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
????????????The early plants were TURNKEY.
Construction costs generally have risen since 1970
We had good management and personnel in 1972 - now we don’t
Mandated retrofits after TMI?????????
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Over-regulation (Towers and Perrin 1995)
Prescriptive not Performance
Dresden-II staff 250 (1975) -> 1,300+ (1997)
unnecessary safety-grade equipment
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
Is excessive regulation inevitable?
YES: unless the utility industry fights in the courts
as much as the antinukes.
Is there hope?
Chairman Jackson emphasized that this area is vital
Am I optimistic?NO!
There is no proof that people are sensible
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
forair pollution
global warming(Meeting Kyoto commitments)
we do not need the breeder reactor.
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
The LONGER TERMIf promises are met for:
safetyproliferation resistance
costa fast neutron reactor
will be usefulfor waste disposal
efficiencyYEAR 2100 +
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
EARLY OPTIMISM about
LIQUID SODIUM REACTORS
Seawolf Submarine worked(sometimes)
Sodium not corrosive (except to human skin!)
Higher temperature and efficiency
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
"Fermi's dream!”
Benedict’s conclusion (1991)The expensive uranium would increase cost 50%
Build a Breeder as soon as Possible!
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
FAST NEUTRON REACTOR IMPROVEMENTS
Fuel burn up (metal fuel) was 1%NOW > 20%
SAFER Cheaper
Pyroprocessing possible(proliferation resistance)
WHY DIDN’T THE COSTS COME DOWN?
CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002
THE THORIUM CYCLE1959
Indian Point designed to allow thorium
Thorium reserves = 6 x Uranium reserves