John IngramFood Systems Programme Leader

Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford

Food Systems

basic concepts and uncertainties

FOOD

UTILISATION

FOOD

ACCESS

FOOD

AVAILABILITY

Food Security

Other Societal Interests

• Income

• Profit

• Rural development

• Employment

• Health

• Environment

• Landscape

• Ecosystem services

• Animal welfare

• …

What do we want from Food Systems?

So Food Systems include a range of social and economic ‘Activities’

Material transformation

Livelihoods & Value addition

Social, Economic, Political and Biophysical Environments

EnvironmentalOutcomes

• Climate change• Water availability• Water quality• Biodiversity• Biogeochemistry• Soil degradation• …

SocioeconomicOutcomes

• Income• Employment • Health• Social capital• Political capital• Ethics• …

Food System Activities give rise tomultiple Food System Outcomes

Trade-offs to be aware of!

Synergies to exploit!

But what’s coming down the track?

??

?

“Stream Trains” “Black Swans”

Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect

Unimagined, rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact

Food System Stresses and Shocks

Stresspressure or tensionexerted on a system

[Steam Trains]

Shocksudden surprising event

affecting a system[Black Swans]

Demography

Social & cultural norms

Natural resource degradation

Climate change

Urbanisation

Automation

Science & technology

Geopolitics

Food System Stresses and Shocks

Stresspressure or tensionexerted on a system

[Steam Trains]

Shocksudden surprising event

affecting a system[Grey Swans]

Demography Trade wars

Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results

Natural resource degradation Food scares

Climate change Extreme weather

Urbanisation Conflict

Automation Geophysical events

Science & technology

Geopolitics

Food System Stresses and Shocks

So how can novel foods help?

It depends…

1. What are the future social and economic ‘conditions’ within which a novel product could be brought to scale?

2. How will these conditions determine the

Viability Efficacy Winners and losers

Scenario analyses help

Methods for looking into the future

Futures Thinking for Food

Systems Transformation

2019 EAT Forum Side Event

Purpose

• Engaging discussion on how futures thinking can help food systems change

• Share ideas on food systems and foresight

• Introduce Foresight4Food Initiative

• Your thoughts on how you could benefit from and contribute to Foresight4Food

Agenda

• Background to Foresight4Food

• Your interests

• Overview of food systems - discussion

• Framework for food systems foresight -

discussion

• Foresight4Food Agenda

• Break

• Open space discussion themes

• Take away messages

What is Foresight4Food

A collaborative global initiative to:

enhance foresight and scenario analysis capability for food systems transformation

promote better analysis and synthesis of key trends and possible futures in global food systems

support more informed, strategic and systemic dialogue between the private sector, government, science and civil society

Background

• Initial idea emerged from discussions during 2014 G20 when the need for a long term food systems approach was included in the G20 agenda

• Scoping workshop held in Oxford in April 2017 led to support for aForesight4Food Initiative and formation of follow-up steering group

• Follow-up workshop in Montpellier May 2018 to plan details of taking the initiative forward

• Interest and engagement from over 40 key organisations and platforms

• Pilot work on data synthesis, country dialogues and community of practice

Your Interests

• Have a chat with your neighbor

(5minutes)

• Who are you?

• What attracted you to this session

• What would you like get out of the session

• Briefly share with the room

Basic Definitions

foresight: the ability to judge correctly what is going to happen

in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge

(Cambridge dictionary)

“Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth

about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken

assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are

thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our

‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’

that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Some Resources For

Getting Started

Framework for Understanding Foresight

Foresight in Context

Foresigh

t

Governance

Systems Thinking

(complexity)Human

Cognition

Deeper Inspirations

Institutional Environment

Drivers

Demographics &

Development

Consumption

Technology

Climate &

Environment

Markets

Policy &

Geopolitics

Food & Nutrition

Security

Environmental

Sustainability

Economic & Social

Well-being

Food System

Outcomes

Food

System

Supporting Services

Information

Physical

Infrastructure

Educatio

n

Inputs

Financ

e

Technology

Standards

Regulations

Laws Norms

Natural System

Human System

Systems

Preferences

Informal Rules

Environment

Research

Feedbacks

Logistic

s

Understanding System of

Analysis - Food Systems Model

Understanding the

System of Analysis

Conceptual

Model

Boundaries

Drivers, Trends and

Uncertainties

“Stream Trains” “Black Swans”

Easily perceived drivers

and trends that will

influence change - direct

and indirect

Rare and/or

unpredictable events that

have a big impact

Risks and Opportunities

System

ic Risks

Transformational

Opportunities

Steam Trains Black Swans

Systemic Risks

Transformational

opportunities

Scenarios

• A description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.

• Types of scenarios

• Predictive

• Explorative

• Normative

• (Backcasting)

Different ways of

mapping scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note

Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre,

(UK) Government Office for Science

Different ways of

mapping scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note

Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre,

(UK) Government Office for Science

Different ways of

mapping scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note

Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre,

(UK) Government Office for Science

Examples of

Scenarios

Influencing Change (Theories

of change)

Computational Models and

Data Sets

• IMPACT - The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IFPRI)

• GLOBIOM - Global Biosphere Management Model (IIASA)

• MOSAICC - Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (FAO

• PEM - Policy Evaluation Model (OECD)

• MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool

• CARPRI - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis

• PBL landuse model

• FAO Stats

• IFPRI Datasets

• OECD agricultural Data

• African Growth and Development Policy modeling consortium (AGRODEP)

• World Bank Open Data

• UNdata

• WHO data repository

• National Statistics

Models Data Sets

Foresight4Food Key Activity Areas

Existing Scientific

Research and

Analysis on Food

Systems Futures

(International agencies,

research institutions,

business)

Existing Forums

platforms

for dialogue and

decision making

(eg CFS / G20 /

Regional bodies /

CGIAR / TempAg

National / IPES

GLOPAN / EAT / WEF /

WBSCD)

Communities of practice

Foresight Users Foresight ProvidersForesight4FoodKey activity areas

Other / Existing Linkages

Resource portal and dashboard

Synthesis and analysis of existing

studies

Brokering work on emerging

issues

Foresight

Processe

s

Foresight

Studies

Bridging hub to support foresight

processes

1

3

2

4

5

Capacity development6

Foresight Training Workshop in

Nepal

Food system foresight workshops

in Ghana and Zambia

RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Novel food technologies at scale

– disruptive implications

EAT Forum 2019, Stockholm

Jon Freeman, Research Group Director, RAND Europe

12 June 2019

For starters…

• With your neighbour, please

discuss:

• What is your interest in the field

of novel foods?

• What challenges and/or

opportunities do you think novel

foods might pose to sustainable

food systems?

• What are some barriers to the

introduction of novel foods at

scale? How might that change?

We propose to use futures and

foresight methods to assess

how novel foods may be

brought to scale

monsitj - Fotolia

Sustainability-Health

-Wealth

-Environment

A macro-level systems map can

help understand where

disruptions may occur

Plant Animal

Lab

Land

Water

The core assumption of the

study

Changes in technology in

the production base…

…could lead to improved

sustainability outcomes inside

and outside of the food system

But it is quite hard to make direct link from a technology

to sustainability impacts beyond the food system.

We propose to break these topics apart to facilitate the analysis.

Overarching concept of

analysis

System

Descriptio

n

Food system scenario analysis

Which technology clusters are most

likely to be taken forward?

What are the wider technology

convergences and food system

outcomes?

Working with experts on food systems

and technology from business,

academia and government

Implications for

sustainability:

- Health

- Wealth

- Environment

Tech

Horizon

Scan

Publicatio

n Activity

STREA

M

Identify Technology Clusters

Core Tech: a novel food itself e.g. lab

cultured meat

Enabling Tech: supports the production

system e.g. LED lights for algal culture

Literature

Review Reporting

Expanded

systems

maps can

help identify

applications

of core and

enabling

technologies

Example: extended map for cultured

meat

Plant Animal

Lab

Land

Water

Meat Fish

Plant Milk/

dairy

Cultured

or In

Vitro

Meat

Stem cellsBioreactor

Stem cell

technology Scaffolding

Cellular

agricultur

e

Animal cell

(biopsy,

genetic

mod)

Fermentatio

n

BiopsyGenetically

modified cells

3D printing

Biofabricatio

n

Example: expanded system map for algae

production

Plant Animal

Lab

Land

Water

Micro-

algae/

cyanoba

cteria

Macro-

algae

(seaweed)

Aquatic

Open-

air

system

Closed

system

Photobioreactors

Genetic mod or

editing (.e.g. CRISPR)

Lighting (e.g. optical

fibres, diodes)

Strain selection

Floatation

Heating/cooling

system

Centrifugation

Hybrid

system

Flat-plate

Tubular Internally-

illuminated

Vertical

column

Coating (prevent

adhesion to PBR)

Filtration (screens)

Natural still water

(e.g. pond)

PBR

Polybags

Water

Make-up media (e.g.

nitrate, urea) Aeration technique

Precipitation

Ion exchange

Ultrasonic vibration

Drying (solar, freeze,

spray, drum,

cooking)

Grinding

INPUTS PROCESSES OUTPUTS

Horizon

scanning

methods

help identify

emerging

novel food

technology,

trends and

future

concepts

Cultured meat

Known

technologie

s

Emerging

technologie

s

Emerging

concepts

(?)

Stem cell

technology

Fermentation

Animal cell

biopsy

De-

cellularised

plant scaffolds

Bio-farms at

commercial

scale

‘Pro-

sumption’:

growing meat

at home

Bio-farms run

by individuals

Analysis of

publication

activity

indicates

how

emergent a

topic is

Example: publication activity for

cultured meat in the past five years

Example: publication activity for algae technologies

and food in the past five years

Stem cell and

cultured meat

3D printing and

cultured meat

Novel meat technologies are relatively nascent in

the context of the underpinning technology

Cultured meat examples – general publications

Stem cell and

cultured meat

3D printing and

cultured meat

Novel meat technologies are relatively nascent in

the context of the underpinning technology

Cultured meat examples – academic publications

Algae and

bioreactors and

food

Algae and

CRISPR and food

CRISPR is a relatively emergent technology with

respect to algae and food

Algae examples – general publications

Combining this

analysis

enables

clusters of

technology to

be identified

52

Core Technologies: a novel

food itself e.g. lab cultured meat

Enabling Technologies:

support the production system

e.g. LED lights for algal culture

Technologies of interest can be

analysed for impact and likely

uptake

Uptake

Scenario analysis explores the

scale and implications of novel

food uptake

• Futures scenarios allow the exploration of

different ways in which technologies could

be scaled, and what the beneficial or

challenging implications of those

technologies might be

• Workshop discussions with experts on

food systems and technologies would , for

example, discuss:

– How could diverse technologies converge to

support the food system?

Sustainability-Health

-Wealth

-Environment

Enabling a rigorous analysis of

how novel food systems could

be scaled, and what the

implications might be

Plant Animal

Lab

Land

Water

RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL