camco crif presentation public sector 12 oct 2011

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework


Duncan Price, Director

Presentation to Senior Public Sector Event 12/10/11


Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives

1

What is Cambridgeshire's potential?


Cambridgeshire is progressing well

2


Modelling renewable energy deployment potential

3

Inputs Scenario 1 (low)

Scenario 2 (medium)

Scenario 3 (high)

Scenario 4 (high without wind)

Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%

Energy price [1]

DECC - 'low' energy prices

DECC - 'high' energy prices

DECC - 'high high' energy prices

DECC - 'high high' energy prices

Financial incentives (FIT/RHI)

lower than current tariff rates current rates

current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)

current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)

Project deployment rate (wind/biomass/EfW) 8% 15% 30%

30% (0% for wind)

Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High


Deployment options for renewable energy

4


Renewable electricity potential is very large

5


Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge

6


S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource

7


District heating potential lies in Cambridge and Huntingdon

8


Substantial infrastructure is needed

Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario

9


Significant investment opportunity

Investment potential for each scenario in £millions

10


Energy efficiency and renewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’

11

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12

Conclusions

• Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity

• There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind

• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity

• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031

• Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget

• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario


Thanks

Duncan Price

DirectorCamco

t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610e: [email protected]

172 Tottenham Court Road LondonW1T 7NS United Kingdom

www.camcoglobal.com

Renewable energy delivery pathways


There are three delivery pathways

Community Public Sector Commercial

14


What is the potential for each pathway?

15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Public sector Community Commercial

Dep

loym

ent po

tential (GWh)

Deployment potential by pathway

Wind >=6 turbines

Wind <=5 turbines

Biomass

ASHP

GSHP

SWH

PV


Community deployment potential

• PV• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels

• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%)

• £640m capex, £150m NPV

• Solar water heating• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)


• Heat pumps• 43,000 or 15% of houses


• Wind• 75MW or 30 turbines

• £120m capex, £8m NPV16


Vision for community delivery pathway

• Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy• Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms

• Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation

• Communities have access to a range of funding sources• Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types

• Gaining access to existing and new funding sources

• Communities are maximising learning from leading practice• Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes

• Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information

17


Vision for community delivery pathway

• Communities are managing energy projects effectively• Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach

• Range of delivery options identified

• Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated

1818


Public sector deployment potential

• PV• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels

• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 houses (18%)


• Solar water heating• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)


• Heat pumps• 8,100 or 20% of houses


19

• Wind• 27MW or 11 turbines


• Biomass• 14 installations of 1.5MW


Vision for public sector pathway

• Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets• PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres

• PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners

• Appropriate wind development on public land

• Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP

• Renewable energy transition plan for each building

• Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches



• Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets• Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL

• Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding

• Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion

• Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc.

• Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal


Commercial deployment potential

• PV• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels

• 3,200 non-residential buildings


• Solar water heating• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of

buildings


• Heat pumps• 200 or 3% of buildings


23

• Wind• For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or

11 turbines

• For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines

• Total capex £660m, £45m NPV

• Biomass• 14 installations of 1.5MW


Vision for commercial delivery pathway

• Investment opportunities are clearly identified• Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1

• Benefits of growth agenda are articulated

• Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community

• Public sector is facilitating investment• Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty

• Engaging in constructive dialogue with community

• Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities



• Investment is flowing, projects being developed• Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development

potential

• Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly

• Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements

• Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting


PV deployment potential

27


Wind deployment potential

28


What will the pathways look like or include?

• Compelling vision of what can be achieved

• Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation

• Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment

• Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector

• Leading county where people choose to invest

• Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted

• The public sector takes the lead

• Project plan for shared decision making


Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives

30

Discussion Points


What will the public sector pathways look like?

• How can the public sector facilitate and support the delivery of more renewable energy delivery in Cambridgeshire?

• What is the role of the Public Sector?

• How can the public sector create the conditions to attract business and community buy-in and investment in Cambridgeshire?


Thanks

Duncan Price

DirectorCamco

t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610e: [email protected]

172 Tottenham Court Road LondonW1T 7NS United Kingdom

www.camcoglobal.com

camco crif presentation public sector 12 oct 2011

Technology

substantial infrastructure

renewable energy canclose

renewable heat

cambridgeshires potential

energy efficiency

district heating potential

medium high scenarios

conclusions cambridgeshire